2024 NHL Draft: WE DID IT, CELEBRINI IS OURS!!!

[landshark]

Are teams not purposefully tanking now?

1. Tanking isn't a bad thing, it's necessary in a cap league
2. Teams being bad for long periods of time isn't good for ownership anyway, that's motivation enough to get out of the basement as soon as possible
3. The NFL (aka the most successful league in the US) has done reverse standings drafts and I've never heard a single person complain about it because it's not an issue, the NHL just loves to pretend they're smart and makes up problems to make convoluted "solutions" to

I didn't say they weren't. I said I thought that was the point behind the lotto and the rule about not winning more than twice in five years.

I understand 1 - 3, I was just trying to reason out whether it would be more of a deterrent to purposefully tanking if a team couldn't win the lotto more than twice in five years even if they finish last all five years.

 

[Pavelski2112]

I didn't say they weren't. I said I thought that was the point behind the lotto and the rule about not winning more than twice in five years.

I understand 1 - 3, I was just trying to reason out whether it would be more of a deterrent to purposefully tanking if a team couldn't win the lotto more than twice in five years even if they finish last all five years.

That's fair, I think my second point was more referring to the post after yours and I forgot to quote it lmao

That's definitely the reason but the NHL is never going to find a strong enough deterrent to tanking because anything the league does to try to curb it is inherently folly

 

[Gecklund]

IIRC it's if you move spots, i.e. going from 2nd to 1st. If you're already 1st and win, it doesn't count toward the two.

Second situation isn’t right. If you’re first and a team as 12 or later wins and you keep first because of that it doesn’t count but if you keep first because you were one of two teams that win it counts.

 

[sharski]

The NHL knows best never question their decisions

 

[Zarzh]

And we draft:

James Hagens - Stats, Contract, Salary & More

Eliteprospects.com hockey player profile of James Hagens, 2006-11-03 Hauppauge, NY, USA USA. Most recently in the NCAA with Boston College. Complete player biography and stats.

www.eliteprospects.com

I do think he's the most likely to fall out of players in recent memory, especially if he doesn't get any taller or continues to struggle with size+skill next year. But there's not even a clear #2 yet.

The Ducks for example are building a team that's going to be hard to play against as well as skilled, where I do feel like we might trend towards the Leafs or more likely the Senators.

 

[landshark]

That's fair, I think my second point was more referring to the post after yours and I forgot to quote it lmao

That's definitely the reason but the NHL is never going to find a strong enough deterrent to tanking because anything the league does to try to curb it is inherently folly

I sincerely hope the Sharks go on a tear finish ninth and win the lotto, leapfrogging the Hawks who finished last. It'll be fun to watch the games again while also feeling that guilt because wins are bad because there are better lotto odds etc etc. It's so Sharks to win and not be able to enjoy it fully.

If MEB could somehow finish a "+" player for the season while potting another dozen goals while that wining tear is going on it'll be even more enjoyable.





But Sharks, you know I can just read the headlines now: (right after the Sharks win the lotto for 1OA)

NHL 2024 draft scandal!

The real draft occurs behind closed doors with the owners of the lotto teams playing a poker tournament for draft order. NHL decides to just use reverse order instead of having a lottery 2024 draft and going forward. HAWKS WIN! E&Y under investigation for being paid to do what they're told. LOL

 

[hohosaregood]

Lose games for James.

 

[jMoneyBrah]

…
3. The NFL (aka the most successful league in the US) has done reverse standings drafts and I've never heard a single person complain about it because it's not an issue, the NHL just loves to pretend they're smart and makes up problems to make convoluted "solutions" to

Not that I couldn’t be swayed by your argument, but based off of nothing other than my suspicions, I suspect the value of the #1 overall in the NFL draft isn’t as valuable as it is in the NHL as:
- Larger rosters, greater injury risks, and shorter careers mean any one player has less of an impact on the success of a franchise; especially over the course of several seasons
- Greater role specialization and a greater disparity between the value of certain roles means there is greater variance between the value available at the top of the draft from year to year (think years when the consensus top talent is a QB versus a year when the consensus top talent is a defensive back)
- NFL draft classes have much smaller sample sizes of competition to use as evaluation data points. Though all players time are coming through the same feeder system, there can be large talent, coaching, and resource disparities between individual programs; which can make it difficult to determine how much is the player and how much is the program
- There are simply far more Alexandre Daigle level busts in the NFL

The local and recent case in point for all this: the Niners trade three consecutive 1st round picks + a 3rd rounder so they could draft QB Trey Lance at 3rd overall. He played 8 games over two seasons, suffered two significant injuries that impacted his availability or play, and was traded in his third season to the Cowboys for a 4th rounder. He is their 3rd string quarterback.

The Niners are in the superbowl this weekend, being lead by their 2nd year quarterback they drafted with a compensatory pick at the very end of the draft.

Converse to all this is the NHL, and to an even greater degree the NBA, where smaller roster sizes, lower variability in positional value, and draft eligibles with greater evaluation sample sizes and better parity amoung jr programs (less so I suspect, for college basketball than jr hockey) make top draft picks much more valuable.

To be clear I have absolutely no data to back any of this up and I’ve speculated the entirety of my rationale.

 

[hotcabbagesoup]

My friends recently told me that they found out that Trey Lance really loved to go clubbing, he was a big-time clubber and they speculated that that didn't sit well with a veteran group in the Niners. So it leads me to believe that the big thing that ruined 3rd overall picked Trey Lance was really Trey Lance himself.

 

[Shark Finn]

Lose games for James.

Reimer?

 

[coooldude]

Not that I couldn’t be swayed by your argument, but based off of nothing other than my suspicions, I suspect the value of the #1 overall in the NFL draft isn’t as valuable as it is in the NHL as:
- Larger rosters, greater injury risks, and shorter careers mean any one player has less of an impact on the success of a franchise; especially over the course of several seasons
- Greater role specialization and a greater disparity between the value of certain roles means there is greater variance between the value available at the top of the draft from year to year (think years when the consensus top talent is a QB versus a year when the consensus top talent is a defensive back)
- NFL draft classes have much smaller sample sizes of competition to use as evaluation data points. Though all players time are coming through the same feeder system, there can be large talent, coaching, and resource disparities between individual programs; which can make it difficult to determine how much is the player and how much is the program
- There are simply far more Alexandre Daigle level busts in the NFL

The local and recent case in point for all this: the Niners trade three consecutive 1st round picks + a 3rd rounder so they could draft QB Trey Lance at 3rd overall. He played 8 games over two seasons, suffered two significant injuries that impacted his availability or play, and was traded in his third season to the Cowboys for a 4th rounder. He is their 3rd string quarterback.

The Niners are in the superbowl this weekend, being lead by their 2nd year quarterback they drafted with a compensatory pick at the very end of the draft.

Converse to all this is the NHL, and to an even greater degree the NBA, where smaller roster sizes, lower variability in positional value, and draft eligibles with greater evaluation sample sizes and better parity amoung jr programs (less so I suspect, for college basketball than jr hockey) make top draft picks much more valuable.

To be clear I have absolutely no data to back any of this up and I’ve speculated the entirety of my rationale.

One argument for and one argument against:
For: the NFL sees far more trades involving the 1OA, 2OA, 3OA picks. This is because the NHL's top picks are so valuable that the price would be far too high for teams to pay to move up. Any hockey team will always take the chance to draft in the top 5 since there's such a drop off typically after then (in terms of team defining players).

Against: because the position of QB is so important, teams are willing to trade a god awful amount of picks to get a QB who they think can help them contend. Top picks are indeed super valuable because of this alone.

Combining the two if both are true, and this is what I believe:

QB is incredibly valuable, more so than any one position in hockey, so top picks are indeed more valuable in NFL than NHL, but only in a year with a generational QB or two at the top. However, in every draft year of the NFL, picks stay valuable longer because of a) a deeper talent pool and B) positional specialization meaning teams aren't necessarily fighting over the same pool of players in the same draft. This means that a top pick in the NHL is very valuable and not traded much, but less valuable than a top QB pick, and most picks after the first half of the first round are far less valuable than a corresponding pick in the NFL draft. In short, the NFL draft has a longer tail but the first 1-3 picks might still have an outsized share of value depending on the QBs on offer.

I would, however, caution against using the trey lance example. Were it not for the 9ers getting historically lucky (statistically) with finding a reliable starter in the 7th round, they would have tanked the franchise with that Lance debacle.

As a counter example to lance specifically, Drew Brees was drafted as a QB long shot... In the second round. Purdy is incredible luck that likely saved Shanahan and Lynch's jobs.

 

[jMoneyBrah]

One argument for and one argument against:
For: the NFL sees far more trades involving the 1OA, 2OA, 3OA picks. This is because the NHL's top picks are so valuable that the price would be far too high for teams to pay to move up. Any hockey team will always take the chance to draft in the top 5 since there's such a drop off typically after then (in terms of team defining players).

Against: because the position of QB is so important, teams are willing to trade a god awful amount of picks to get a QB who they think can help them contend. Top picks are indeed super valuable because of this alone.

Combining the two if both are true, and this is what I believe:

QB is incredibly valuable, more so than any one position in hockey, so top picks are indeed more valuable in NFL than NHL, but only in a year with a generational QB or two at the top. However, in every draft year of the NFL, picks stay valuable longer because of a) a deeper talent pool and B) positional specialization meaning teams aren't necessarily fighting over the same pool of players in the same draft. This means that a top pick in the NHL is very valuable and not traded much, but less valuable than a top QB pick, and most picks after the first half of the first round are far less valuable than a corresponding pick in the NFL draft. In short, the NFL draft has a longer tail but the first 1-3 picks might still have an outsized share of value depending on the QBs on offer.

I would, however, caution against using the trey lance example. Were it not for the 9ers getting historically lucky (statistically) with finding a reliable starter in the 7th round, they would have tanked the franchise with that Lance debacle.

As a counter example to lance specifically, Drew Brees was drafted as a QB long shot... In the second round. Purdy is incredible luck that likely saved Shanahan and Lynch's jobs.

I largely agree with you on the QB factor, though I feel like the draft value difference between say a franchise 1C/1D are similar to a franchise QB; neither can win you something on their own, but once you’ve checked that off the list you’re only a few major pieces away.

Another big difference between the NHL and NFL is that coaches have much more influence over the game in the NFL.

Re: Lance, I’m not sure he’s all that much of an outlier. Maybe in the sense of just how much and how quickly he’s lost his shine; but the list of highly drafted QBs who never amounted to much is sizable. Darnold, Sam Bradford, Ryan Leaf, Jamarcus, David Carr, Leinart, RG3…

 

[coooldude]

I largely agree with you on the QB factor, though I feel like the draft value difference between say a franchise 1C/1D are similar to a franchise QB; neither can win you something on their own, but once you’ve checked that off the list you’re only a few major pieces away.

Another big difference between the NHL and NFL is that coaches have much more influence over the game in the NFL.

Re: Lance, I’m not sure he’s all that much of an outlier. Maybe in the sense of just how much and how quickly he’s lost his shine; but the list of highly drafted QBs who never amounted to much is sizable. Darnold, Sam Bradford, Ryan Leaf, Jamarcus, David Carr, Leinart, RG3…

There are tons of busts, of course. The outlier is that the niners are still competing for a SB despite the bust and the lost draft capital. Most of those QBs significantly hurt their franchises with their busts. The entirety of a rebuild for a franchise can depend on whether there's a top 15 QB in place, and a good QB can drag their team to the playoffs far better than a good 1C or 1D can.

 

[jMoneyBrah]

There are tons of busts, of course. The outlier is that the niners are still competing for a SB despite the bust and the lost draft capital. Most of those QBs significantly hurt their franchises with their busts. The entirety of a rebuild for a franchise can depend on whether there's a top 15 QB in place, and a good QB can drag their team to the playoffs far better than a good 1C or 1D can.

Ah. Yeah that makes sense. All great points here. You have won me over with your logic and reason

 

[coooldude]

Yakemchuk had a Gordie Howe hat trick tonight. I get the feeling that if we don't draft him, we're going to hate him every time we play him. Guy has a punchable face, an edge to his game, and he appears to be quite good. One of the more polarizing prospects in the draft (almost but not quite to the Parekh level), but the upside is high.

 

[stator]

Are teams not purposefully tanking now?

Players don't tank. They are too busy chasing bonus, records, and their next contract. Tanking is done up at the GM office. There needs to be a better definition of tanking than just using that label for every bad team or rebuilding team.

If you want to look at the real tanking teams, check Capfriendly for projected cap space. There are teams that don't have revenue issues with large cap space. That's the best clue on GM deciding to tank.

Guess what team leads that list of the most projected cap space? Hint- Chicago. Ducks are 2nd and not that far behind.

 

[Gecklund]

Players don't tank. They are too busy chasing bonus, records, and their next contract. Tanking is done up at the GM office. There needs to be a better definition of tanking than just using that label for every bad team or rebuilding team.

If you want to look at the real tanking teams, check Capfriendly for projected cap space. There are teams that don't have revenue issues with large cap space. That's the best clue on GM deciding to tank.

Guess what team leads that list of the most projected cap space? Hint- Chicago. Ducks are 2nd and not that far behind.

The only reason the Sharks aren’t higher is because of retention and the bad contracts they had to take back in the Karlsson trade.

 

[mogambomoroo]

Right now I'm feeling a Levshunov and Yakemchuk as our picks at the draft. Double down on RD, that will help us our depth by a mile.
I feel like they will be BPA at the spots we draft realistically.

Think about:
Mukhamadullin - Levshunov
Cagnoni - Yakemchuk
X - X
(Of course a lot of things have to go our way, I know that)

Dickinson/Silayev and Yakemchuk is not bad either, it can give you a chance for:

Dickinson/Silayev - X
Mukhamadullin - Yakemchuk
X - X

 

[hohosaregood]

Think Id be satisfied with Celebrini, levshunov, Lindstrom at the top. Parekh or Yakemchuk with the Pens pick. Then Mews or Basha with the Sharks 2nd or the Devils 1st. I think I had a couple others I wanted to keep track of but names are slipping from my brain

 

[DG93]

Yeah if they don't get the #1 pick, I'm totally fine with using their first 2 picks to build the defensive prospect pool (given that it's Mukh, a few possible 3rd pair guys, and crickets right now) and then use the 2025 and 2026 top-3 picks for forwards to add to Smith, Eklund, and Musty.

Timeline-wise it works out too because defensemen can take longer to develop, so maybe by the time the Smith and the 2025/2026 top-3 pick forwards are ready, the two D prospects from this draft will be ready too. Would be pretty neat to roll out a top-6 with Eklund, Smith, Musty, Hagens, and the top-5 pick in 2026 with Levshunov, Mukh, and Jiricek on the backend (+ maybe Cagnoni on the third pair?) during the 2026-2027 season.

 

[Groo]

I was eyeing Surin with the 2nd rounder from the Devils

 

[coooldude]

At this rate I don't think Yakemchuk is going to fall to the Pens pick, and Iginla might not either. Might end up being a Greentree vs. MBN pick... Jiricek, maybe. Yakemchuk might be playing his way into the top D group.

Will be amazing if we pick 2nd, and anywhere 2-5 the pick will do a whole lot to show us how Grier thinks about top end prospects/the future. Last year 4OA didn't tell us a whole lot, but the Musty pick did.

Edit: here's a good rundown of the top D men. Silayev seems to be consensus #2 from NHL scouts but almost any of them could be argued top D by the time June rolls around.

Loaded defense class adds plenty of intrigue to the 2024 draft

The defense class, and its depth, will certainly add some intrigue to how the top end of the first round shakes out at the 2024 NHL Draft.

nhlentrydraft.com

 

[Stewie Griffin]

At this rate I don't think Yakemchuk is going to fall to the Pens pick, and Iginla might not either. Might end up being a Greentree vs. MBN pick... Jiricek, maybe. Yakemchuk might be playing his way into the top D group.

Agreed, but if the pens give us a 10-14 say pick and Yakumchuk & Iginla are off the board that means someone like Catton, Eiserman, Dickinson, Buium, etc. is available.

If we can come out of the draft with 2 of:
Celebrini, Levshunov, Lindstrom, Silayev, Demidov, Catton, Dickinson, Eiserman, Yakemchuk, Iginla, Parekh, Buium I would be so happy.

I don't want us drafting Demidov or Eiserman with our own first, but if we got one of them paired with someone else in that group it would be hard to call that a bad haul.

 

[cheechoo]

I understand wanting to even out the chips across the board, and with Smith and Eklund here it may feel a bit redundant but to me Catton has to be the #2 pick. Serious Giroux/Marner vibes. Having one of the best DY seasons in WHL history. Elite skater, elite on the PK, elite at zone entries / skating with the puck, strips pucks at a high rate and is just a dominating playdriving force when he's on the ice.

I think he's a Smith level prospect and a bit above anyone not named Celebrini.

 

[Gecklund]

I understand wanting to even out the chips across the board, and with Smith and Eklund here it may feel a bit redundant but to me Catton has to be the #2 pick. Serious Giroux/Marner vibes. Having one of the best DY seasons in WHL history. Elite skater, elite on the PK, elite at zone entries / skating with the puck, strips pucks at a high rate and is just a dominating playdriving force when he's on the ice.

I think he's a Smith level prospect and a bit above anyone not named Celebrini.

I love Catton and think he’s a top 5 talent in the draft. That said I think I’d still take Lindstrom, Silayev, Levshunov over him in addition to Celebrini. His size worries me. I don’t think he’s a C at the NHL level because of that size. Now obviously players smaller than him have had successful NHL careers but still.

If he’s there at like 10 or so, I’d be all for trading PIT’s 1st and our 2nd to trade up for him though. Speaking of trading up, with this draft having the steep depth drop off, I’d honestly be okay packaging PIT 1st, our 2nd, and NJD 2nd and seeing how high we can get. I’d have to imagine that gets us around 7.