2024 NHL Draft: WE DID IT, CELEBRINI IS OURS!!!

[mogambomoroo]

My simple take, if Sharks don't get Celebrini then Sharks should scout and take the best defencemen available with both of those two 1st round picks. I don't have a data to prove that's the best way to go, but that's the biggest need for the Sharks prospect pool and it seems there is some potential in defence this year.
Both of those picks are probably not going to play an NHL game next year, so you get a chance to tank one more year and probably draft a high caliber forward in 2025.

 

[Gecklund]

My simple take, if Sharks don't get Celebrini then Sharks should scout and take the best defencemen available with both of those two 1st round picks. I don't have a data to prove that's the best way to go, but that's the biggest need for the Sharks prospect pool and it seems there is some potential in defence this year.
Both of those picks are probably not going to play an NHL game next year, so you get a chance to tank one more year and probably draft a high caliber forward in 2025.

Sharks prospect pool just needs talent. I don’t think they should focus on position at all. If a winger is BPA great take him.

 

[coooldude]

Sharks prospect pool just needs talent. I don’t think they should focus on position at all. If a winger is BPA great take him.

I think that position will factor in to BPA, though. Given how the top 15 is shaking out (fingers crossed for the PIT pick...), a D man who falls to 11-15 might very likely have gone top 10 in a regular year. The wingers are in a messy tier below. Like let's say you're picking 15 and Brandsegg-Nygard or Tij Iginla is available... you might still take Parekh or Buium or Jiricek or Yakemchuk another high-upside D even if the raw evaluation is that Brandsegg-Nygard (or less likely Tij, or like Connelly or Greentree) is "BPA". Upside risk also matters.

I think if you're picking #2-4, and you have your choice between one of Silayev, Dickinson, Levshunov, Buium at D, or Demidov, Lindstrom, Eiserman, or Catton at F, you probably take D.

So putting that together, you very well may end up walking away with 2 top D prospects out of a 2-4 and 11-15 pick. And if we luck into Celebrini, then we probably do pick one of Yakemchuk/Parekh/Jiricek over one of those other 11-20 wingers... if they're in the same tier based on Grier and co's evaluation, which seems likely.

 

[Skeksis25]

Do we want the pittsburgh pick to be 11-15 this year, or should we root for them to finish bottom 10 and get their unprotected next year?

 

[PattyLafontaine]

Do we want the pittsburgh pick to be 11-15 this year, or should we root for them to finish bottom 10 and get their unprotected next year?

It really depends on how 2024-2025 projects for them. They hold the 12th pick currently with a wining record. How far do you think they regress next year? I would think thye would regress given that most their talent is in their mid thirties. 10th has less point and 9th has 2 less points so they're not that far away from keeping their pick and the Sharks getting a top 10 pick in 2024-2025.

 

[hohosaregood]

If Pittsburgh was smart, they'd just give up this year's 1st regardless of where it fell...outside of somehow winning the lottery. If they do fall off a cliff then it would let them keep their potentially worse pick next year. If they do end up competing, they can use the pick as trade capital.

 

[Zarzh]

I think that position will factor in to BPA, though. Given how the top 15 is shaking out (fingers crossed for the PIT pick...), a D man who falls to 11-15 might very likely have gone top 10 in a regular year. The wingers are in a messy tier below. Like let's say you're picking 15 and Brandsegg-Nygard or Tij Iginla is available... you might still take Parekh or Buium or Jiricek or Yakemchuk another high-upside D even if the raw evaluation is that Brandsegg-Nygard (or less likely Tij, or like Connelly or Greentree) is "BPA". Upside risk also matters.

I think if you're picking #2-4, and you have your choice between one of Silayev, Dickinson, Levshunov, Buium at D, or Demidov, Lindstrom, Eiserman, or Catton at F, you probably take D.

So putting that together, you very well may end up walking away with 2 top D prospects out of a 2-4 and 11-15 pick. And if we luck into Celebrini, then we probably do pick one of Yakemchuk/Parekh/Jiricek over one of those other 11-20 wingers... if they're in the same tier based on Grier and co's evaluation, which seems likely.

I'd disagree entirely but there's a big variation in those forwards, where MBN and Igilna are supposed to provide a lot more than scoring.

It's unique role, not position which matters. So a 2nd line forward that's difficult to play against and can be a glue guy on any line is extremely valuable.

 

[tiburon12]

Do we want the pittsburgh pick to be 11-15 this year, or should we root for them to finish bottom 10 and get their unprotected next year?

whatever we root for, the opposite will happen. Such is the Sharks fan way

 

[coooldude]

I'd disagree entirely but there's a big variation in those forwards, where MBN and Igilna are supposed to provide a lot more than scoring.

It's unique role, not position which matters. So a 2nd line forward that's difficult to play against and can be a glue guy on any line is extremely valuable.

Sure, you just have to weigh that against the upside of Yakemchuk as a RD, Jiricek as an all arounder, and Parekh as a huge upside risky offensive D, just as three examples who also have unique roles/profiles.

These guys might all go top 10 in a different draft, such is the D depth this year. Iginla and MBN may have awesome careers as solid 2nd line forwards or better, but they're not going top 10 in most drafts.

 

[Zarzh]

Sure, you just have to weigh that against the upside of Yakemchuk as a RD, Jiricek as an all arounder, and Parekh as a huge upside risky offensive D, just as three examples who also have unique roles/profiles.

These guys might all go top 10 in a different draft, such is the D depth this year. Iginla and MBN may have awesome careers as solid 2nd line forwards or better, but they're not going top 10 in most drafts.

Guys like Igilna and MBN go way too high all the time, and we're assuming they're better prospects in this hypothetical. Getting them at 11-15 is great value, you aren't getting them in the 20s and you shouldn't pick them super early.

 

[The Nemesis]

My simple take, if Sharks don't get Celebrini then Sharks should scout and take the best defencemen available with both of those two 1st round picks. I don't have a data to prove that's the best way to go, but that's the biggest need for the Sharks prospect pool and it seems there is some potential in defence this year.
Both of those picks are probably not going to play an NHL game next year, so you get a chance to tank one more year and probably draft a high caliber forward in 2025.

Never draft for need unless you have multiple players in a dead heat rankings-wise and position is the tiebreaker.

Even at the top of a draft you are, most of the time, at least a couple years away from those players making impacts and there's no telling how the team's makeup changes between now and then.

Draft BPA, worry about position later.

 

[Lebanezer]

 

[mogambomoroo]

Never draft for need unless you have multiple players in a dead heat rankings-wise and position is the tiebreaker.

Even at the top of a draft you are, most of the time, at least a couple years away from those players making impacts and there's no telling how the team's makeup changes between now and then.

Draft BPA, worry about position later.

Yep, but I'm starting to feel like defencemen will ultimately be BPA at the spots we draft if we don't draft Celebrini. There is just a lot of them in that #2-#16 area. BPA all the way, but we need future NHL defencemen asap if we want to become a contending team since they don't usually develop as fast as forwards.

 

[LilLeeroy]

You'll get Cole Eiserman, or another Boston boy, and like it. We don't need any of those dangerous Ruskies.

 

[Juxtaposer]

whatever we root for, the opposite will happen. Such is the Sharks fan way

Yup, that’s why I’m purposefully not preferring one scenario over the other, except that the Penguins being bad is good for us.

 

[sharski]

Do we want the pittsburgh pick to be 11-15 this year, or should we root for them to finish bottom 10 and get their unprotected next year?

whatever we root for, the opposite will happen. Such is the Sharks fan way

Pens will have the #10 pick this year, then proceed to win the lottery

the pens will then finish last in the league next year, and the "pens" will get leapfrogged by Chicago and Edmonton so that the sharks will pick #3

 

[Stewie Griffin]

Pens will have the #10 pick this year, then proceed to win the lottery

the pens will then finish last in the league next year, and the "pens" will get leapfrogged by Chicago and Edmonton so that the sharks will pick #3

If that happens we'd be getting a 3rd overall pick for Karlsson after everyone telling us he was worthless. That's a huge win.

Funny since we gave up the 2020 3rd overall pick for him in hindsight.

 

[Dicdonya]

You'll get Cole Eiserman, or another Boston boy, and like it. We don't need any of those dangerous Ruskies.

Disclaimer: I do not follow prospects super closely, or as much as some other posters here so dont take my opinion too seriously please

That being said, I might be crazy, but from what I have seen, Demidov is the guy I want. There is something about him that just screams superstar IF he hits. So its interesting to me that his numbers are on par with a guy like Kucherov because that is basically what my gut was telling me he could be if he hits his potential.

Whereas Celebrini, to me, just gives me the vibe of like a Barzal. A perfectly fine player, but one that just doesn't have IT for whatever reason that stops him from being a stud. Maybe I am just not seeing something others are, but when I watch Celebrini I do not see that standout feature of his game, that makes me go "wow yeah if that skill translates to the NHL level he is going to be amazing".

Watching other first overall prospects from years past, most of them it was just clear as day they were at least a step or two above their peers, where Celebrini to me, looks like a half step above instead.

For those that pay more attention to prospects than me, what is supposed to be Celebrini's first OA quality skill?

edit- Woops meant to quote Lebanezer's post

 

[DG93]

Disclaimer: I do not follow prospects super closely, or as much as some other posters here so dont take my opinion too seriously please

That being said, I might be crazy, but from what I have seen, Demidov is the guy I want. There is something about him that just screams superstar IF he hits. So its interesting to me that his numbers are on par with a guy like Kucherov because that is basically what my gut was telling me he could be if he hits his potential.

Whereas Celebrini, to me, just gives me the vibe of like a Barzal. A perfectly fine player, but one that just doesn't have IT for whatever reason that stops him from being a stud. Maybe I am just not seeing something others are, but when I watch Celebrini I do not see that standout feature of his game, that makes me go "wow yeah if that skill translates to the NHL level he is going to be amazing".

Watching other first overall prospects from years past, most of them it was just clear as day they were at least a step or two above their peers, where Celebrini to me, looks like a half step above instead.

For those that pay more attention to prospects than me, what is supposed to be Celebrini's first OA quality skill?

edit- Woops meant to quote Lebanezer's post

Not sure where the Celebrini-Barzal comp comes from...he may not be Bedard, but he's an excellent prospect

 

[Dicdonya]

Not sure where the Celebrini-Barzal comp comes from...he may not be Bedard, but he's an excellent prospect

To be clear I said vibe, not a direct comp.

So to extrapolate on that Barzal has great speed, good hands, playmaking ability, decent shot, defensively fine, but outside of his speed there is nothing about Barzal that stands out as being particularly elite.

That is the same vibe I get when watching Celebrini. I just do not see that thing that stands out from the rest, that would make me think oh yeah that is the clear 1OA pick.

Who do you think is a good comp for Celebrini and why?

 

[LadyStanley]

 

[Jargon]

Demidov highlights are wild to watch, he’s pretty insane. If we didn’t get Celebrini, I wouldn’t hate him. Plus, Hasso apparently loves Russian players!

 

[coooldude]

To be clear I said vibe, not a direct comp.

So to extrapolate on that Barzal has great speed, good hands, playmaking ability, decent shot, defensively fine, but outside of his speed there is nothing about Barzal that stands out as being particularly elite.

That is the same vibe I get when watching Celebrini. I just do not see that thing that stands out from the rest, that would make me think oh yeah that is the clear 1OA pick.

Who do you think is a good comp for Celebrini and why?

Celebrini isn't Crosby but he plays a Crosby game... Highly intelligent, 200ft, high motor, high skill, makes his teammates better but can also put the team on his back and score. Demidov is scoring 5 goals in the equivalent of the CHL, while Celebrini is at nearly 2ppg against older, stronger opposition in the NCAA and shined as Canada's best forward in a group of the world's best U19s, and he's still 17 until June I think! Dude is a stud.

It really sucks that Russia isn't participating in all these prospect events so we can see direct comps (Putin's fault), so we didn't get to see them on the same ice in December and January. but Celebrini is being talked about as closer to a MacKinnon than a Barzal. And anyway you'd take a center with a Barzal floor and a MacKinnon or even, say Hischier ceiling in a heartbeat vs a Kucherov ceiling that could end up as any number of promising flashy Russian forwards that didn't make it.

That said, Demidov is definitely pushing himself into the conversation again after his injury.

Demidov highlights are wild to watch, he’s pretty insane. If we didn’t get Celebrini, I wouldn’t hate him. Plus, Hasso apparently loves Russian players!

That tidbit from the Masisak article on Hasso stood out to me - "Hasso likes Russian wingers and pushed for Barabanov"... Which is more smoke re: maybe Michkov did indeed make it clear he didn't want to play for us.

 

[Desert Eagle]

I've never heard anything bad about Demidov, unlike Michkov.
The only problem is that he is in SKA (Rotenberg`s system), it`s bad place for his (and any young player) development.
Good news that his contract expires in 2025. I can`t be sure, but probably he doesn`t want to extend it, that`s why Rotenberg don`t give him legit chance to play in KHL or even in VHL.

 

[Jargon]

Celebrini isn't Crosby but he plays a Crosby game... Highly intelligent, 200ft, high motor, high skill, makes his teammates better but can also put the team on his back and score. Demidov is scoring 5 goals in the equivalent of the CHL, while Celebrini is at nearly 2ppg against older, stronger opposition in the NCAA and shined as Canada's best forward in a group of the world's best U19s, and he's still 17 until June I think! Dude is a stud.

It really sucks that Russia isn't participating in all these prospect events so we can see direct comps (Putin's fault), so we didn't get to see them on the same ice in December and January. but Celebrini is being talked about as closer to a MacKinnon than a Barzal. And anyway you'd take a center with a Barzal floor and a MacKinnon or even, say Hischier ceiling in a heartbeat vs a Kucherov ceiling that could end up as any number of promising flashy Russian forwards that didn't make it.

That said, Demidov is definitely pushing himself into the conversation again after his injury.


That tidbit from the Masisak article on Hasso stood out to me - "Hasso likes Russian wingers and pushed for Barabanov"... Which is more smoke re: maybe Michkov did indeed make it clear he didn't want to play for us.

Yeah in Casey’s interview with Sheng and Keegan, he mentions how Hasso watched the old Soviet teams and got into the Sharks because of Larionov and Makarov (ironically how my dad got into them too). So, yeah, Demidov may not be a terrible option.