2024 NHL Draft: WE DID IT, CELEBRINI IS OURS!!!

[tiburon12]

There's a thread on the main boards about teams in "forever rebuilds", which was definitely something I was hyper concerned about a few seasons ago when we were all debating the merits of rebuild vs full tear down vs retool etc.

Seems like a prevailing thought is that having good structure, coaching, and development staff are just as important as having the raw talent, but that success comes from both.

I gotta say, maybe i've drank the Kool-Aid, but so far i'm feeling confident in the Org's ability to provide good structure and coaching. I like the way Quinn treats the team, and I like the standards Grier has set, even if winning hasn't come. I'm still not confident in the org's development ability, however.

 

[LilLeeroy]

There's a thread on the main boards about teams in "forever rebuilds", which was definitely something I was hyper concerned about a few seasons ago when we were all debating the merits of rebuild vs full tear down vs retool etc.

Seems like a prevailing thought is that having good structure, coaching, and development staff are just as important as having the raw talent, but that success comes from both.

I gotta say, maybe i've drank the Kool-Aid, but so far i'm feeling confident in the Org's ability to provide good structure and coaching. I like the way Quinn treats the team, and I like the standards Grier has set, even if winning hasn't come. I'm still not confident in the org's development ability, however.

In the NBA both the Spurs and the Warriors were heralded as these lightyears ahead team with the coaching and talent development that was ahead of the rest of the NBA. It turns out it comes down much more to luck when building a contender than any magic secret development formula.

 

[PacificOceanPotion]

I’m honestly a little surprised Grier hasn’t moved anyone yet.

 

[Stewie Griffin]

I’m honestly a little surprised Grier hasn’t moved anyone yet.

Other than Granlund I'd say no one has improved their stock at all to make a trade worthwhile. Barabanov and Duclair have lost value if anything, Labanc and Hoffman just don't have any. Ferraro is our only trade chip and as sad as it is, idk if we can afford to move him unless for a significant prospect/pick.


In terms of 2024 draft:
- Lindstrom injured 4-6 weeks.

I think I have him ranked 3rd behind Celebrini and Levshunov atm. We'll see how the missed time effects his rankings. I'm not sure how to 100% grasp him as a prospect. I've seen comparisons from Brady Tkachuk to Mason McTavish. Whether he's a center or not, that would be a huge add in our top-6 that already has "softer" playmakers like Eklund and Smith. (Long term)

 

[Pinkfloyd]

I’m honestly a little surprised Grier hasn’t moved anyone yet.

If I thought that anything they have realistically available this trade deadline warranted a first round pick return or something like that, I think they'd probably push to get that done but since it's probably just 2nd and 3rd rounders or later then there shouldn't be any pressure to get something done until the deadline is closer.

 

[STL Shark]

I feel like the only real tank competition is Chicago. Columbus has 14 more points than us in the standings, they’re not gonna threaten us.

And even then, we're merely leaving it to the folks at EY to determine whether we're 1st or 2nd or 3rd.

I feel like 2024 will be a draft that MG will trade up with that PIT 1st round pick and our high 2nd round pick to get a guy he likes in the scenario of said player starting to drop. Hopefully it's one of the defencemen, and other GM's miss out.

I think if you secure Celebrini, you take that Pittsburgh pick and shop it and see what you can get for it in terms of NHL D-Men. In a less stellar draft in that range, the pick might not garner a ton but think with Smith and Celebrini (in this hypothetical) making the NHL jump next year I'd like to get some sort of support for those guys to start building forward.

Still a bottom 5 team in the league for 2024-25 where you can try and find a D-Man that fits the core age in the draft, but start the process of no longer being the lowest scoring and highest goals allowed in the league with the young guys. Need an NHL defense to do that.

 

[coooldude]

I think if you secure Celebrini, you take that Pittsburgh pick and shop it and see what you can get for it in terms of NHL D-Men. In a less stellar draft in that range, the pick might not garner a ton but think with Smith and Celebrini (in this hypothetical) making the NHL jump next year I'd like to get some sort of support for those guys to start building forward.

Still a bottom 5 team in the league for 2024-25 where you can try and find a D-Man that fits the core age in the draft, but start the process of no longer being the lowest scoring and highest goals allowed in the league with the young guys. Need an NHL defense to do that.

Maybe.

Some scout said that Reinbacher would be 5th best D in this class. If that's truly the case, then this is the draft to pick a D in the 11-20 range, because that D might have fallen with teams picking F's up to that point in the draft. By the time you get into 11-20 for F's, perhaps it's a weaker set of F's but still a D pick-up that would be 5-10 in another draft.

I think if PIT is 11-15 you still target one of these draft fallers... if we're lucky, someone like Yakemchuk.

 

[Hodge]

Finishing last guarantees one of Celebrini, Levshunov or Lindstrom. Seems like there’s a clear separation between these three and the rest of the class.

 

[Sendhelplease]

Seems to me that this is the year to keep a pick in the 11-20 range given that the draft tiers this year seems to be Celebrini and then like 15 other guys. Having a pick in the 11-20 range means we can select someone in the second tier which seems like good value.

 

[coooldude]

Finishing last guarantees one of Celebrini, Levshunov or Lindstrom. Seems like there’s a clear separation between these three and the rest of the class.

From my reading on this board and various draft analyses/lists, I don't think Lev and Lindstrom have clearly separated themselves from the likes of (F) Demidov, Catton, or even Eiserman, and (D) Dickinson, Buium, Silayev, to a lesser extent Parekh, Jiricek, Yakemchuk. There's a mess after Celebrini. I believe Jux feels this way also. EDIT: all you have to do is go to each of these people's prospect threads and see how many people will say "Demidov/Catton/Lindstrom should go 2OA" and the same on the Dickinson/Buium/Silayev/Levshunov threads.

EDIT 2: here's another thread on NCAA/USHL that puts EJ Emery up there above both Buium and Levshunov, as yet another example of how there's a ton of noise this year and no clear separation after Celebrini.

That said, Finishing last guarantees one of Celebrini, or whoever else in that big messy group that Grier and co like the most. So it's clearly still preferable to finish last, plus the lottery odds.

 

[Cas]

Seems to me that this is the year to keep a pick in the 11-20 range given that the draft tiers this year seems to be Celebrini and then like 15 other guys. Having a pick in the 11-20 range means we can select someone in the second tier which seems like good value.

Either we pick in the 11-20 range and that's fine, or we have a good chance at a lottery pick next year, which is even better. Also possible we have a late 1st that we can consider trading at that point, but I don't see a reason to overthink the Pittsburgh pick.

 

[Hodge]

From my reading on this board and various draft analyses/lists, I don't think Lev and Lindstrom have clearly separated themselves from the likes of (F) Demidov, Catton, or even Eiserman, and (D) Dickinson, Buium, Silayev, to a lesser extent Parekh, Jiricek, Yakemchuk. There's a mess after Celebrini. I believe Jux feels this way also. EDIT: all you have to do is go to each of these people's prospect threads and see how many people will say "Demidov/Catton/Lindstrom should go 2OA" and the same on the Dickinson/Buium/Silayev/Levshunov threads.

EDIT 2: here's another thread on NCAA/USHL that puts EJ Emery up there above both Buium and Levshunov, as yet another example of how there's a ton of noise this year and no clear separation after Celebrini.

That said, Finishing last guarantees one of Celebrini, or whoever else in that big messy group that Grier and co like the most. So it's clearly still preferable to finish last, plus the lottery odds.

Seems like there are no real question marks when it comes to Celebrini, Levshunov or Lindstrom's size, skating or production whereas there are questions about at least one of those aspects for everyone else. Demidov has been lighting up a terrible league, Catton is really small, Buium has an awkward skating style, etc.

 

[coooldude]

Seems like there are no real question marks when it comes to Celebrini, Levshunov or Lindstrom's size, skating or production whereas there are questions about at least one of those aspects for everyone else. Demidov has been lighting up a terrible league, Catton is really small, Buium has an awkward skating style, etc.

Sure, but there's no consensus. Levshunov's play style, hockey sense, decision making, defensive positioning is suspect to some. Maybe he's just really physically mature, maybe "all tools no toolbox". Lindstrom has questions about his vision and playmaking.

On the other side, Catton is producing really, really well, pops on watch, and isn't as small as he's being criticized for being. Dickinson is either a future Pietrangelo or a future boring stay at home D but his floor might be higher than Lev, less risky pick. Demidov is either another flashy Russian turnover machine or he's only a shade lower than Michkov depending on who you talk to. Everyone has big questions below Celebrini, including Lev and Lindstrom.

This isn't my opinion, this is my synthesis of the discussions happening and everyone else's opinions.

 

[Stewie Griffin]

Finishing last guarantees one of Celebrini, Levshunov or Lindstrom. Seems like there’s a clear separation between these three and the rest of the class.

This is how I see it too. Drafting someone outside of Celebrini, Levshunov, and Lindstrom would leave me extremely disappointed with how this season has been.

 

[Sendhelplease]

I am extremely reluctant about selecting Demidov but only because he is a small wing. Looking at the prospect pool we need more defense and center depth, you can acquire elite wings much more easily than you can acquire elite centers or defensemen.

 

[coooldude]

I am extremely reluctant about selecting Demidov but only because he is a small wing. Looking at the prospect pool we need more defense and center depth, you can acquire elite wings much more easily than you can acquire elite centers or defensemen.

I'm personally hesitant about Demidov but not because of his size... he's 5'11", bigger than Michkov. He's currently skinny, but weight #'s are notoriously unreliable especially out of Russia, and he'll get stronger. I'm more worried he's just a flashy dangler.

 

[TheBeard]

I'm personally hesitant about Demidov but not because of his size... he's 5'11", bigger than Michkov. He's currently skinny, but weight #'s are notoriously unreliable especially out of Russia, and he'll get stronger. I'm more worried he's just a flashy dangler.

He's also only 18.

 

[Hodge]

This is how I see it too. Drafting someone outside of Celebrini, Levshunov, and Lindstrom would leave me extremely disappointed with how this season has been.

That's where I'm at right now but obviously there's at least a few months of hockey remaining for most of these prospects. Among the rest, Dickinson and Buium look the most intriguing. Would strongly prefer to avoid spending another lottery pick on a winger like Catton or Demidov.

 

[TheBeard]

That's where I'm at right now but obviously there's at least a few months of hockey remaining for most of these prospects. Among the rest, Dickinson and Buium look the most intriguing. Would strongly prefer to avoid spending another lottery pick on a winger like Catton or Demidov.

It Pitts finished 11-15 I'd ponder moving up with our 2nd rounder. Would be way cooler if NJ could make it to the EC finals.

 

[Juxtaposer]

What bothers me more about Levshunov than his supposed hockey IQ problems is just that he looks awkward as hell on skates. He’s a little uncoordinated with the puck on his stick and when he transitions directions his skating feels weird.

At this point, drafting at #2 or #3 is more of a “who would I be least mad about” than “who am I excited about”. I definitely don’t think Levshunov and Lindstrom have set themselves apart, though I would probably have them #2 and #3 respectively if you put a gun to my head.

 

[Stewie Griffin]

Would strongly prefer to avoid spending another lottery pick on a winger like Catton or Demidov.

Agreed, we simply can't draft a winger. Look at what happened to Benson last year though, there's a legit world where Catton is available if the PIT pick is say 11-13.

Off the top of my head:
Celebrini

Levshunov/Lindstrom

Dickinson/Buium/Eiserman/Demidov/Silayev

Helenius/Parekh/Catton/Yakemchuk/Connelly/Iginla/Jiricek/Brandsegg-Nygard

Those are the tiers I see GMs looking at it, based on past drafts and rankings we have, and are the guys I've seen most consistently in the top-15ish. If any teams reaches for a D like Jiricek, Yakemchuk or Parekh or a bigger forward like Brandsegg-Nygard then we could easily get a scoring winger like Catton or Helenius in the early teens.

 

[coooldude]

I'm hoping one of Silayev or Dickinson finishes so strong that their downside is limited and upside is higher. Or that Lev keeps developing and helps MSU go deep in the tourney. I'm not sure how much more we're going to learn about Lindstrom with his 6-8 week injury. SOMEBODY needs to make it feel more exciting to pick 2/3.

I think it's more likely that Yakemchuk or Emery falls to 11+20 than Catton. Also Catton is a C right now. Right?

 

[LilLeeroy]

What bothers me more about Levshunov than his supposed hockey IQ problems is just that he looks awkward as hell on skates. He’s a little uncoordinated with the puck on his stick and when he transitions directions his skating feels weird.

At this point, drafting at #2 or #3 is more of a “who would I be least mad about” than “who am I excited about”. I definitely don’t think Levshunov and Lindstrom have set themselves apart, though I would probably have them #2 and #3 respectively if you put a gun to my head.

In interviews there is something called the anchoring effect, it's where the interviewer will latch onto something completely irrelevant and subconsciously makes their entire judgement about the person based on this irrelevant characteristic.

So Levshunov might be one of the best defensive prospects in recent history, but you don't like him because he skates with a bit of the Lucic hunchback.

 

[hohosaregood]

I think a good wildcard pick would be David Jiricek. Maybe with the NJ pick if that ends up as a 1st.

 

[Hodge]

I think a good wildcard pick would be David Jiricek. Maybe with the NJ pick if that ends up as a 1st.

I know he had a season ending injury but is he really expected to fall that far? I was hoping to land him with the Pittsburgh pick.