2024 NHL Draft: WE DID IT, CELEBRINI IS OURS!!!

[coooldude]

Yeah, guys, I get being somewhat dismissive of strength of schedule, but it only needs to matter 2-4 points worth to matter a whole lot, as we all remember last year.

 

[hohosaregood]

Even if you look at the strength of schedule, the only bottom feeder the Sharks could split games with is maaaaybe Chicago. Historically, groin injuries really f*** with a player's skating. There's no way Couture is coming back as what he once was.

It's crazy that you guys are so worried that this historically bad team is somehow good enough to sneak past the 2nd worst team which is on pace for 25% more wins than the Sharks

 

[Cas]

Even if you look at the strength of schedule, the only bottom feeder the Sharks could split games with is maaaaybe Chicago. Historically, groin injuries really f*** with a player's skating. There's no way Couture is coming back as what he once was.

And given that Couture doesn't drive play, but relies on capitalizing on plays created by others (which he has been very, very good at doing, mind), that doesn't look to really change matters for the better.

He's likely to be better than Kunin, but that's not saying much. It remains to be seen how good Couture will be for the second half.

 

[coooldude]

Historically, groin injuries really f*** with a player's skating. There's no way Couture is coming back as what he once was.

I believe it. Do we have confirmation it's a groin injury? That would make sense, as would hernia/something abdominal.

 

[DG93]

Even if you look at the strength of schedule, the only bottom feeder the Sharks could split games with is maaaaybe Chicago. Historically, groin injuries really f*** with a player's skating. There's no way Couture is coming back as what he once was.

It's crazy that you guys are so worried that this historically bad team is somehow good enough to sneak past the 2nd worst team which is on pace for 25% more wins than the Sharks

Yeah, exactly. Every team from 5th place (Columbus, 14 points ahead) up really doesn't matter. Ottawa has 5 games in hand and is 7 points ahead of SJ (hopefully will pick up 4-5 points in those 5 games in hand to put themselves comfortably 11-12 points ahead). The only teams that matter are Anaheim and Chicago, and hopefully Anaheim keeps building on that 8pt lead as their schedule gets easier. If the Sharks lose 2/3 games coming up vs Anaheim, I think that lead will be big enough. Chicago is the real competition, and they do make me nervous without Bedard.

 

[Cas]

Only one of our three games with Chicago will be sans Bedard (most likely) and that'll be the second half of a back-to-back for us (fifth game in eight days on the road). Chicago will have had two days off at home.

I wouldn't be shocked if we were swept by the Blackhawks this year.

 

[hohosaregood]

Just looking at which teams have extra picks in the 1st round. Looks like Chicago has their pick and TB which is 2 and 11 respectively and Ottawa has their pick and Boston's at 5 and 31 respectively.

Let's say the Sharks get the 1OA, would you trade with Chicago for 2/3 and 11? So that the Sharks will then have 2/3, 11, and 15.

And if the Sharks get 2/3 OA, would you trade with Ottawa for 5-7 and 28-31? So that the Sharks have ~5, 15, and ~28.

 

[DG93]

Just looking at which teams have extra picks in the 1st round. Looks like Chicago has their pick and TB which is 2 and 11 respectively and Ottawa has their pick and Boston's at 5 and 31 respectively.

Let's say the Sharks get the 1OA, would you trade with Chicago for 2/3 and 11? So that the Sharks will then have 2/3, 11, and 15.

And if the Sharks get 2/3 OA, would you trade with Ottawa for 5-7 and 28-31? So that the Sharks have ~5, 15, and ~28.

No, I want a legit 1C prospect, and it seems like Celebrini fits that bill.

How about we trade Hertl to the Senators for that Boston 1st + B prospect + cap dump though?

 

[coooldude]

Just looking at which teams have extra picks in the 1st round. Looks like Chicago has their pick and TB which is 2 and 11 respectively and Ottawa has their pick and Boston's at 5 and 31 respectively.

Let's say the Sharks get the 1OA, would you trade with Chicago for 2/3 and 11? So that the Sharks will then have 2/3, 11, and 15.

And if the Sharks get 2/3 OA, would you trade with Ottawa for 5-7 and 28-31? So that the Sharks have ~5, 15, and ~28.

The whispers are that this draft is fairly underwhelming outside of Celebrini and the next tier, so, no.

1OA you take Celebrini and do not look back.

2/3, I wouldn't trade down for 5 and an additional pick on the back half of round 1, because that player is not likely to be impactful. You take the player you want at 2/3.

Just my 2c.

 

[coooldude]

Only one of our three games with Chicago will be sans Bedard (most likely) and that'll be the second half of a back-to-back for us (fifth game in eight days on the road). Chicago will have had two days off at home.

I wouldn't be shocked if we were swept by the Blackhawks this year.

Good analysis, makes sense, and I will still prepare emotionally for 2+ wins from the Sharks.

On the strength of schedule thing, it matters less than the 3 head to heads with CHI and the 3 with ANA.

We have 15 games vs. CHI (3), ANA (3), OTT (2), CBJ (2), MIN (3), BUF (2).
CHI has one fewer against each of ANA, CBJ, BUF, MIN.

We have 9 remaining against WPG (1), NYR (1), DAL (3), LA (2), VGK (1), PHI (1). Those are our hardest 9 games remaining.

CHI has 12 remaining against WPG (2), VAN (2), NYR (1), COL (2), DAL (2), and LA (3).

So I really do think that this does matter. It's just not true that 4 games vs. ANA, CBJ, BUF, and MIN are the same as 4 games against VAN, COL, and WPG. But it probably matters 2-6 points worth vs. the 12-point swing of the 3 game head to head.

 

[one2gamble]

So the ducks and hawks are going after Macklin now eh

 

[DG93]

So the ducks and hawks are going after Macklin now eh

Very timely Zegras and Mintyukov injuries heh

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Just looking at which teams have extra picks in the 1st round. Looks like Chicago has their pick and TB which is 2 and 11 respectively and Ottawa has their pick and Boston's at 5 and 31 respectively.

Let's say the Sharks get the 1OA, would you trade with Chicago for 2/3 and 11? So that the Sharks will then have 2/3, 11, and 15.

And if the Sharks get 2/3 OA, would you trade with Ottawa for 5-7 and 28-31? So that the Sharks have ~5, 15, and ~28.

No to trading the Sharks pick almost regardless of the circumstances. If they don't get #1, they should be looking to trade whatever they have to so they can move up for Celebrini but that is also very unlikely. I would look at trading back from the Pittsburgh pick to get more picks. Maybe even with Chicago for 18 and 34 or to a team that has an extra 2nd in 2025.

 

[Cas]

No to trading the Sharks pick almost regardless of the circumstances. If they don't get #1, they should be looking to trade whatever they have to so they can move up for Celebrini but that is also very unlikely. I would look at trading back from the Pittsburgh pick to get more picks. Maybe even with Chicago for 18 and 34 or to a team that has an extra 2nd in 2025.

Agreed - don't overthink things, just take the best prospect available with our pick. Consider moving around with the others, but not ours.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Agreed - don't overthink things, just take the best prospect available with our pick. Consider moving around with the others, but not ours.

I would trade a lot if we had to move up one or two spots to get Celebrini. I just don't know if that a lot will be sufficient for whoever would be in that spot.

 

[stator]

I wouldn't be shocked if we were swept by the Blackhawks this year.

If that happens, the howling of the Sharks being tankers will crescendo there. Now if that ain't the pot calling the kettle black, I don't know what is.

 

[coooldude]

I would trade a lot if we had to move up one or two spots to get Celebrini. I just don't know if that a lot will be sufficient for whoever would be in that spot.

Smith and what else? The pens pick? The pens AND our pick?

I'm not sure. I would put a lot more faith in Celebrini being the guy for us but it's hard to give up the pick right after him. Probably Smith, the pens pick, and even one or two other prospects. Celebrini appears to be the truth.

I agree, nobody probably makes that trade though.

 

[Barrie22]

Smith and what else? The pens pick? The pens AND our pick?

I'm not sure. I would put a lot more faith in Celebrini being the guy for us but it's hard to give up the pick right after him. Probably Smith, the pens pick, and even one or two other prospects. Celebrini appears to be the truth.

I agree, nobody probably makes that trade though.

If we are trading Smith and picks plus another prospect then it is just putting the rebuild back another 2-3 years even if we got Celebrini and he turns into McDavid.

Unless we could do like a Hertl/Couture and pens 1st. I would not be trading up for Celebrini.

 

[Hodge]

Woof. Bad night for the tank.

 

[StanleyCup2035]

Will be fun to watch Lindstrom-Smith compete against a Bedard-Celebrini tandem for a decade plus.

 

[Sendhelplease]

Just looking at which teams have extra picks in the 1st round. Looks like Chicago has their pick and TB which is 2 and 11 respectively and Ottawa has their pick and Boston's at 5 and 31 respectively.

Let's say the Sharks get the 1OA, would you trade with Chicago for 2/3 and 11? So that the Sharks will then have 2/3, 11, and 15.

And if the Sharks get 2/3 OA, would you trade with Ottawa for 5-7 and 28-31? So that the Sharks have ~5, 15, and ~28.

Even though I am pro trading down, I would not trade down from #1 this year unless it is for an offer you cannot refuse. Celebrini is in a separate tier from everyone else in this draft, if we have the #2 pick I fully support trading down. In a draft like 2021 or 22 I would love to trade down from #1 but this is not the year to do it.

 

[coooldude]

If we are trading Smith and picks plus another prospect then it is just putting the rebuild back another 2-3 years even if we got Celebrini and he turns into McDavid.

Unless we could do like a Hertl/Couture and pens 1st. I would not be trading up for Celebrini.

Don't get me wrong, I don't think it's realistic and I'm not advocating for it... but if we swapped Smith and our PIT pick and one more prospect for Celebrini, I don't think it sets us back 2-3 years. I think it keeps us on track, actually. Celebrini will almost surely play in the NHL next year (very few 1OA picks don't) and that's ahead of a timeline for Smith. We still keep the 2 or 3OA or whatever it is, so that prospect becomes immediately our next best prospect after Celebrini. Sure, we then lose out on the PIT pick and one more prospect, but even the best prospect in our system (Muhk) would likely be a 1-to-1 swap with the 2/3 pick which would likely be a D, who will be a better prospect than Mukh.

Again... don't think it's realistic, but I don't think it would necessarily set us back in the rebuild. What it would do is increase the risk of the rebuild failing, in order to trade Celebrini's future for Smith's.

 

[Hodge]

I would absolutely trade Smith and our own 2024 1st rounder for the 1st overall pick. Throw in Pittsburgh's pick too, who gives a shit. Celebrini is on track to be a franchise player.

 

[hotcabbagesoup]

I would not. I would rather stick it out with Smith and the two firsts. I want to build more of the Vegas and Seattle model where we load up on 2nd liners and the depth carries us through.

#StrengthInNumbers

 

[Shark Finn]

I don't think it matters whether we get Celebrini or not. With us, he'll be something of a Hischier-lite. Anywhere else, he'll become Crosby-lite.