2024 NHL Draft: WE DID IT, CELEBRINI IS OURS!!!

[DG93]

If we're somehow able to draft both Celebrini and Silayev, I'll be happy as a pig rolling around Jack Edwards broadcast booth.

Do we think Silayev is going in the mid-teens? That's where I expect the Pens pick will land at best...or are you assuming that Grier will use the Devils pick and Sharks 2nd to move up?

 

[hohosaregood]

Do we think Silayev is going in the mid-teens? That's where I expect the Pens pick will land at best...or are you assuming that Grier will use the Devils pick and Sharks 2nd to move up?

It seems like wishful thinking but it seems like that this draft is enough of a crapshoot after Celebrini that anything could happen between 2-13. And IIRC our Russian scout Eronko didn't think Silayev was a top 10 prospect in an interview.

 

[coooldude]

Honestly I think we're playing somewhat above our heads right now and other teams are simply not taking us seriously. I continue to expect reversion to the mean and a finish below 40 points.

I think this is true but I think we end up where I thought we'd end up initially, between 20-25 wins and over 50 points. I still think we are bottom 2 but CHI's implosion concerns me.

It seems like wishful thinking but it seems like that this draft is enough of a crapshoot after Celebrini that anything could happen between 2-13. And IIRC our Russian scout Eronko didn't think Silayev was a top 10 prospect in an interview.

He did say he "didn't see it" with Silayev in the top 5 or 10, but all these kids are so young, still 7 months left till the draft, and if we're picking 11-15 and he's available, I'm guessing he'd be high on our list.

 

[Cas]

I think this is true but I think we end up where I thought we'd end up initially, between 20-25 wins and over 50 points. I still think we are bottom 2 but CHI's implosion concerns me.

I also think Chicago is playing below themselves right now, so I'm not really concerned at this stage about not finishing last.

Give it 20 more games and we'll see.

 

[cheechoo]

It seems like wishful thinking but it seems like that this draft is enough of a crapshoot after Celebrini that anything could happen between 2-13. And IIRC our Russian scout Eronko didn't think Silayev was a top 10 prospect in an interview.

Smokescreen mayhaps

 

[ThePlanet]

Do we think Silayev is going in the mid-teens? That's where I expect the Pens pick will land at best...or are you assuming that Grier will use the Devils pick and Sharks 2nd to move up?

At this point, I'm thinking Silayev goes 7-10, and I'm hoping the Pens pic ends up as close to 11oa as possible. From there, it would be using the Devils' pick, our second, or some combination or those and others to move up.

 

[hohosaregood]

I don't really know much about the late 1st round yet but if we did get Lindstrom, it could be interesting to go for his linemate Basha in the late 1st/early 2nd. Would kinda match the Falloon/Whitney connection.

 

[coooldude]

I don't really know much about the late 1st round yet but if we did get Lindstrom, it could be interesting to go for his linemate Basha in the late 1st/early 2nd. Would kinda match the Falloon/Whitney connection.

Woof...

 

[Desert Eagle]

And IIRC our Russian scout Eronko didn't think Silayev was a top 10 prospect in an interview.

yes that's right

 

[Sharkz4Fun]

I also think Chicago is playing below themselves right now, so I'm not really concerned at this stage about not finishing last.

Give it 20 more games and we'll see.

The way it's been trending is actually close to if not exactly where it should be at. Sharks were playing far below themselves at the beginning of the season while Chicago was playing far above themselves. Now the Sharks are playing slightly above where they should be (they really should be competitive in any non-VGK/COL/BOS/few other games), while Chicago is playing right where they should be, if not still slightly above.

I'd say I'm curious as to why you still think Chicago is better than SJ, but they aren't, so I'll repeat I'd expect it to be similar to last season where a few points will separate CHI-CBJ-SJ. If one team truly ends up tanking it out it will be Chicago, not SJ. Not even close roster wise on paper even without Couture. Thinking the Sharks have last in the bag is empty headed.

 

[LilLeeroy]

The way it's been trending is actually close to if not exactly where it should be at. Sharks were playing far below themselves at the beginning of the season while Chicago was playing far above themselves. Now the Sharks are playing slightly above where they should be (they really should be competitive in any non-VGK/COL/BOS/few other games), while Chicago is playing right where they should be, if not still slightly above.

I'd say I'm curious as to why you still think Chicago is better than SJ, but they aren't, so I'll repeat I'd expect it to be similar to last season where a few points will separate CHI-CBJ-SJ. If one team truly ends up tanking it out it will be Chicago, not SJ. Not even close roster wise on paper even without Couture. Thinking the Sharks have last in the bag is empty headed.

Because the Blackhawks are still a better team that the Sharks?

I think Cole Eiserman is starting to get underrated by scouts around the league. He's definitely not perfect, but he is only like 2 months older than guys like Hagens who are in the 2025 draft.

 

[Hodge]

The way it's been trending is actually close to if not exactly where it should be at. Sharks were playing far below themselves at the beginning of the season while Chicago was playing far above themselves. Now the Sharks are playing slightly above where they should be (they really should be competitive in any non-VGK/COL/BOS/few other games), while Chicago is playing right where they should be, if not still slightly above.

I'd say I'm curious as to why you still think Chicago is better than SJ, but they aren't, so I'll repeat I'd expect it to be similar to last season where a few points will separate CHI-CBJ-SJ. If one team truly ends up tanking it out it will be Chicago, not SJ. Not even close roster wise on paper even without Couture. Thinking the Sharks have last in the bag is empty headed.

Wrong. Sharks are the worst team by a mile. We have no defensemen who can even remotely compare to Seth Jones or Connor Murphy. Until one of those guys has a season ending injury or gets his contract terminated the Blackhawks should be well clear of us.

 

[Sharkz4Fun]

Wrong. Sharks are the worst team by a mile. We have no defensemen who can even remotely compare to Seth Jones or Connor Murphy. Until one of those guys has a season ending injury or gets his contract terminated the Blackhawks should be well clear of us.

The Blackhawks do not have anyone like Couture. Or Barabanov. Or the plethora of NHL forwards, even though most of them are 3rd-4th liners, that the Sharks do. They might have a more offensive defense crew, but they are playing close to 6-7+ AHL forwards a night. Also, Seth Jones is good now?

Yes, to this point SJ has been the worst team. That wasn't the point. Also, quoting a Jfresh graph is very funny.

 

[Hodge]

The Blackhawks do not have anyone like Couture. Or Barabanov. Or the plethora of NHL forwards, even though most of them are 3rd-4th liners. They might have a more offensive defense crew, but they are playing close to 6-7+ AHL forwards a night. Also, Seth Jones is good now?

Yes, to this point SJ has been the worst team. That wasn't the point.

They have a guy you may have heard of named Connor Bedard. Jones isn't worth his contract but he's several orders of magnitude better than any Sharks defenseman.

 

[Sharkz4Fun]

They have a guy you may have heard of named Connor Bedard. Jones isn't worth his contract but he's several orders of magnitude better than any Sharks defenseman.

Yup, and that 18 year old Bedard is evened out by a 30 year old Tomas Hertl, both on pace for about the same amount of points. I thought my omission of both would've led you to this conclusion, alas..... I expect too much again.

 

[gaucholoco3]

Wrong. Sharks are the worst team by a mile. We have no defensemen who can even remotely compare to Seth Jones or Connor Murphy. Until one of those guys has a season ending injury or gets his contract terminated the Blackhawks should be well clear of us.

While I agree the Sharks are still the worst team in the league, those numbers are skewed by the first 11 games where the Sharks just didn’t care.

 

[Juxtaposer]

I don't really know much about the late 1st round yet but if we did get Lindstrom, it could be interesting to go for his linemate Basha in the late 1st/early 2nd. Would kinda match the Falloon/Whitney connection.

I would be a huge fan of grabbing that duo.

In my dream world that doesn’t include winning the lottery, we do something like #4/Lindstrom, #12/Jiricek or Buium, #30/Basha.

Hopefully the Devils can turn their season around…

 

[Hodge]

While I agree the Sharks are still the worst team in the league, those numbers are skewed by the first 11 games where the Sharks just didn’t care.

Sharks xGF% first 11 games: 41.9%
Past 14 games: 40.8%

Based on Natural Stat Trick but I assume Sportslogiq would show similar splits. We're not playing much better, pucks are just going in more often. This remains one of the worst teams in recent history.

 

[gaucholoco3]

Sharks xGF% first 11 games: 41.9%
Past 14 games: 40.8%

Based on Natural Stat Trick but I assume Sportslogiq would show similar splits. We're not playing much better, pucks are just going in more often. This remains one of the worst teams in recent history.

Yeah it is sad that after 25 games they have out shot their opponent once (maybe twice).

 

[DG93]

Sharks xGF% first 11 games: 41.9%
Past 14 games: 40.8%

Based on Natural Stat Trick but I assume Sportslogiq would show similar splits. We're not playing much better, pucks are just going in more often. This remains one of the worst teams in recent history.

This break from suckage is also being propped up by significantly improved goaltending...once the goalies return to earth, I expect they will start losing a lot more again

 

[coooldude]

They have a guy you may have heard of named Connor Bedard. Jones isn't worth his contract but he's several orders of magnitude better than any Sharks defenseman.

I'm all for showing how the Sharks are bad (and we are) but if we're going to use math terms... several orders of magnitude? Like Jones is 100-1000x better than our defensemen?

All the stats are going to show that we are historically bad, because we were historically bad for the first 13 games or so. We may end up historically bad, but we haven't been playing historically badly in the last 12 or so. We're 4-5-1 and played the league's best team to a 6-5 loss away (yes, they were on a back to back). We're probably playing at our absolute max right now, but this is our max, and it means we play almost .500 hockey even against solid teams.

That will happen at least once or twice more throughout the season, and likely we'll also have 2-4 more awful stretches.

The Hawks are 2-8, and they've fairly inarguably played as badly or worse than we have in those past 10 games. Their floor is probably not quite as low as ours but it's low, and their ceiling (in terms of a team game with depth) is possibly not as high, while their top end skill is, no shit, higher.

All this paints a picture of a pretty tight race to the bottom just like last year... You guys might end up being right and we'll run away with it, but don't be surprised if it comes down to the last week or two, either. I, for one, expect us to be bottom 2, and we're likely #1 worst, but I will not be surprised if it's close.

 

[Hodge]

I'm all for showing how the Sharks are bad (and we are) but if we're going to use math terms... several orders of magnitude? Like Jones is 100-1000x better than our defensemen?

All the stats are going to show that we are historically bad, because we were historically bad for the first 13 games or so. We may end up historically bad, but we haven't been playing historically badly in the last 12 or so. We're 4-5-1 and played the league's best team to a 6-5 loss away (yes, they were on a back to back). We're probably playing at our absolute max right now, but this is our max, and it means we play almost .500 hockey even against solid teams.

That will happen at least once or twice more throughout the season, and likely we'll also have 2-4 more awful stretches.

The Hawks are 2-8, and they've fairly inarguably played as badly or worse than we have in those past 10 games. Their floor is probably not quite as low as ours but it's low, and their ceiling (in terms of a team game with depth) is possibly not as high, while their top end skill is, no shit, higher.

All this paints a picture of a pretty tight race to the bottom just like last year... You guys might end up being right and we'll run away with it, but don't be surprised if it comes down to the last week or two, either. I, for one, expect us to be bottom 2, and we're likely #1 worst, but I will not be surprised if it's close.

By some measures like expected goals we have actually been worse in the past 14 games compared to the 11 straight losses to open the season. The reason I bring up the defense is because being able to ice Seth Jones and Connor Murphy for the majority of every game raises your floor as a team so much higher than the Sharks who use Ferraro and a preseason waiver claim in the same role. Unless one or both are injured for an extended period, I feel I can rest easy that the Sharks will finish last. Of course it won't matter because Chicago will still win the lottery.

 

[coooldude]

By some measures like expected goals we have actually been worse in the past 14 games compared to the 11 straight losses to open the season. The reason I bring up the defense is because being able to ice Seth Jones and Connor Murphy for the majority of every game raises your floor as a team so much higher than the Sharks who use Ferraro and a preseason waiver claim in the same role. Unless one or both are injured for an extended period, I feel I can rest easy that the Sharks will finish last. Of course it won't matter because Chicago will still win the lottery.

On Natural Stat Trick, since Nov 1, we're 30th @ 5v5 (just ahead of the Hawks and Pens... I'm not sure what they auto-sort on to start).
- We're last in CF% (we were 31st before)
- We're 26th in xGF above (in order below us) Ducks, Caps, Hawks, Wild, Wings, Sens (we were 27th in month 1)
- We're 31st in xGA (above CBJ) (we were last thru Nov 1)
- We're last in xGF% with the Hawks right above us (we were last w/ hawks right above us thru Nov 1)
- 31st in HDCF% (above the Hawks) (we were last by 0.01 in the first month, just below the Hawks)
- PDO (our best proxy for puck luck, shooting% + save%) was second to last in the league in the first month, just above CGY, and we have been #26 in Nov+. Meanwhile the Hawks are actually 18th, meaning they could have had a much worse month than they even did.

So relative to other teams, we are slightly better since Nov 1 on xGF. Even if the # is lower, it's also lower for another 6 teams.

On most metrics, we are playing roughly the same, and the Hawks are around where we are, slightly better, or slightly worse. So I get your confidence, I'm just saying the numbers are closer than I'd like.

Just to be sure we're not using diff stats -- where do you get yours?

 

[Hodge]

On Natural Stat Trick, since Nov 1, we're 30th @ 5v5 (just ahead of the Hawks and Pens... I'm not sure what they auto-sort on to start).
- We're last in CF% (we were 31st before)
- We're 26th in xGF above (in order below us) Ducks, Caps, Hawks, Wild, Wings, Sens (we were 27th in month 1)
- We're 31st in xGA (above CBJ) (we were last thru Nov 1)
- We're last in xGF% with the Hawks right above us (we were last w/ hawks right above us thru Nov 1)
- 31st in HDCF% (above the Hawks) (we were last by 0.01 in the first month, just below the Hawks)
- PDO (our best proxy for puck luck, shooting% + save%) was second to last in the league in the first month, just above CGY, and we have been #26 in Nov+. Meanwhile the Hawks are actually 18th, meaning they could have had a much worse month than they even did.

So relative to other teams, we are slightly better since Nov 1 on xGF. Even if the # is lower, it's also lower for another 6 teams.

On most metrics, we are playing roughly the same, and the Hawks are around where we are, slightly better, or slightly worse. So I get your confidence, I'm just saying the numbers are closer than I'd like.

Just to be sure we're not using diff stats -- where do you get yours?

I posted the xGF% splits from Natural Stat Trick a couple of posts back in this thread. It was 41.9% for the first 11 games vs. 40.8% for the next 14. We were 31st in the first sample and 32nd in the more recent sample.

 

[bigsjfan]

Let's not underestimate the effect that the Corey Perry situations had on the Hawks during those games. That situation has a conclusion now and the team can start to get back to playing un-distracted hockey.