2024 NHL Draft: WE DID IT, CELEBRINI IS OURS!!!

[Bowie22]

Back to 2024 draft talk. If we finish last but drop to 3rd, assuming Celebrini and Eiserman go 1-2. Who does everyone like 3rd overall?

I'm leaning defenseman, but honestly not sure which one quite yet.

Catton

 

[spintops]

We currently lack literally everything, so there's no reason to consider anything save best prospect overall for #1-3. I have no problem with taking a good winger like Eiserman or Demidov if that's who looks to be the best available at our pick - we need good wingers as much as anything else.

It's a lot easier to find good wingers in FA / by trade than a 1C.

 

[coooldude]

Kucherov. Rantanen. Pastrnak. Those are all offense first wingers that contenders were built around. Demidov would be a fantastic compliment to what we have in the system.

Catton is so much better than you’re giving him credit for. Another very smart guy that is great two way. He’s very creative offensively. Hell I take him over Smith right now but that’s a hot take.

Yeah, but Eiserman is the comp to those guys, not Demidov, at least in my opinion. I grant that I'm no expert, I just don't have a good feeling right now about him. If we get 2OA, I won't be disappointed at all with Eiserman, or Silayev/Dickinson assuming they have kept climbing up the board, or whoever is clearly in the mix at 2OA. I'm just not sure Demidov is the guy for those comps.

As for Catton, I don't know much about him so maybe he's great. It just seems insane to pick 2-3 and take the 2nd C in a normal/weak draft, instead of the top winger or the top D options who are all in the same tier. And he's small. If he's Smith or even better, do we really want to double down on that kind of prospect, if there are other players that are arguably just as high potential at the same tier?

If we're picking between Eiserman, Demidov, Levshunov/Dickinson/Silayev, and Catton, and we go with Catton, that feels like more of the same kind of drafting that got us into trouble in the first place. He better hit his ceiling or it's a big miss.

 

[Jargon]

I’d love Celebrini obviously and I find Demidov a little intriguing but we haven’t had a high end scorer like Eiserman in such a long time, I miss it. I’d be pretty happy, all in all, picking between him, Celebrini and a D-man.

 

[Barrie22]

Ran the tankathon simulator 5 times, sharks selected 3rd 4 times and 2nd once.

 

[Friday]

Ran the tankathon simulator 5 times, sharks selected 3rd 4 times and 2nd once.

Since the NHL changed the rules no team that's finished last has drafted 3rd. The way talkathon has teams jumping 8+ spots all the time doesn't seem realistic when you see the real draft results. Just think the NHL might have some more layers than straight %'s that talkathon uses

 

[Hodge]

Since the NHL changed the rules no team that's finished last has drafted 3rd. The way talkathon has teams jumping 8+ spots all the time doesn't seem realistic when you see the real draft results. Just think the NHL might have some more layers than straight %'s that talkathon uses

Those layers: 1) Give the 1st overall pick to an original six team with plausible odds and 2) If there isn't one, give it to a team located in Canada or the northeastern United States.

 

[Barrie22]

Those layers: 1) Give the 1st overall pick to an original six team with plausible odds and 2) If there isn't one, give it to a team located in Canada or the northeastern United States.

If i remember correctly, it was like Nashville, Columbus, Ottawa, Edmonton, Buffalo.

 

[OffSydes]

Those layers: 1) Give the 1st overall pick to an original six team with plausible odds and 2) If there isn't one, give it to a team located in Canada or the northeastern United States.

Exactly - you need to factor in the NHL rigging it

 

[one2gamble]

BPA always ane forever

 

[coooldude]

BPA always ane forever

Yeah, but who's the BPA at 3? Is it Demidov? or Catton? Or one of the D's? BPA works until the draft gets hazy. Hell, last year BPA was hazy at 2... even without the Michkov factor.

 

[Cas]

It's a lot easier to find good wingers in FA / by trade than a 1C.

Yes, but if we don't have a legitimate 1C to draft, then we should draft the 1W if they are the best available prospect. Under no circumstances should we be worried about position for our top pick - we should be worried about skill potential.

 

[Friday]

Yeah, but who's the BPA at 3? Is it Demidov? or Catton? Or one of the D's? BPA works until the draft gets hazy. Hell, last year BPA was hazy at 2... even without the Michkov factor.

Too early to tell, I don't think a clear 3/4/5 has emerged. There will be someone in the 5-25 range who will fly up the rankings. Sharks picking top 2 though so no worries haha

 

[coooldude]

Ran the tankathon simulator 5 times, sharks selected 3rd 4 times and 2nd once.

I ran it once and we picked first.

The last time, I ran it 8 times before we picked first.

The time before that, we picked first 2 out of 3 times.

It's a 25.5% chance we pick first, an 18.8% chance we pick 2nd, and a 55.7% chance we pick 3rd...

 

[Crewouse]

I ran it once and we picked first.

The last time, I ran it 8 times before we picked first.

The time before that, we picked first 2 out of 3 times.

It's a 25.5% chance we pick first, an 18.8% chance we pick 2nd, and a 55.7% chance we pick 3rd...

11 sims before the first 1OA. My tear glands are ready

 

[tiburon12]

Columbus is looking like an early favorite to join us in the sub-basement levels.

I hope we dont ever become that tire fire of an org

 

[Le Rosbeef]

Starting to wonder if there should be some 'Nosedive for Silayev' in this thread...

 

[Skeksis25]

You always draft BPA, imo. Even if that guy is a high end winger. If nothing else, that ends up being a big asset you could use to trade for a 1C if someone like that becomes available. The greatest 1C in franchise history was acquired via a trade.

 

[Barrie22]

You always draft BPA, imo. Even if that guy is a high end winger. If nothing else, that ends up being a big asset you could use to trade for a 1C if someone like that becomes available. The greatest 1C in franchise history was acquired via a trade.

And that was a once in a lifetime opportunity and trade

 

[gaucholoco3]

And that was a once in a lifetime opportunity and trade

I think the reigning cup champions would disagree with that statement.

 

[SjMilhouse]

I ran it once and we picked first.

The last time, I ran it 8 times before we picked first.

The time before that, we picked first 2 out of 3 times.

It's a 25.5% chance we pick first, an 18.8% chance we pick 2nd, and a 55.7% chance we pick 3rd...

If you run it infinite times, we will win 25.5% of the time...that's all that matters. You can run it 100 times and we don't win a single time, we still have a 25.5% chance to win because statistics!

I get it's fun to play with but that's the reality

 

[TheBigDrunkPanda]

I won’t be shocked to see Esierman move up to #1 overall by draft day

 

[StanleyCup2035]

I won’t be shocked to see Esierman move up to #1 overall by draft day

I wouldn't be shocked that Sharks will get #3 pick if we finish last and #4 pick if we finish 2nd to last.

 

[Hodge]

I won’t be shocked to see Esierman move up to #1 overall by draft day

I would. There's nothing Eiserman can possibly accomplish in the USHL that would be more impressive than the season Celebrini is having as a 17 year old in college hockey.

 

[Friday]

Celebrini is a center and those will always have more value. No way Eiserman goes 1st