Prospect Info: 2024 NHL Draft Thread

[Monsieur Verdoux]

I never said I'm waiting Nygard as our pick. As Chernyshov. Better player doesn't mean he will be picked by our organisation or by other organisation. For better ir for worse.
If defensemen will not be available than Helenius, Catton or Iginla are looking like more expected Devils picks on paper. Of course if available.

But I still have hopes. I liked Sanderson, Edvinsson, Simashev etc higher than consensus. They were picked higher. But in Devils case Fitz prefer to draft for needs time after time, so it doesnt look like Nygard and Chernyshov are top priorities because they are RW.

Oh yeah, I agree. I didn't meant to say that you or Steven are expecting the Devils will pick MBN. But maybe your enthusiasm for the player has caused that some people here think MBN is a more likely pick for the Devils than he actually is.

 

[Forge]

It's definitely less likely than 25 % that the Devils will draft MBN. I know StevenToddIves, Guadana etc are excited about him, but his consensus ranking is lower than TOP 10 pick. I mean Bob even didn't have him in his TOP15 rankings.

I said it elsewhere, but this was a thought that popped into my head when I saw those 15.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Oh yeah, I agree. I didn't meant to say that you or Steven are expecting the Devils will pick MBN. But maybe your enthusiasm for the player has caused that some people here think MBN is a more likely pick for the Devils than he actually is.

This actually made me laugh, by no fault of your own.

When @Guadana and I assess a prospect, it does not necessarily mean we are assessing that prospect in relation to the New Jersey Devils. This is to say that I can talk for hours about how much I love Demidov or Lindstrom, but I also try to put it out there that there is no chance the Devils will get one of those guys unless they win the #2 or #3 slot in the draft lottery.

I believe that both @Guadana and I have stated multiple times that we think the Devils are most likely to select either one of the big 3 LD (Buium is probably the greatest possibility to fall) or Helenius with their likely #10 or #11 overall pick.

But our point is that, despite what the consensus tells us, Brantsegg-Nygard is on a very similar level of quality with some higher ranked forwards such as Helenius or Catton and even a better player than higher-consensus guys like Eiserman or Greentree.

We're not saying: Brantsegg-Nygard will be drafted by New Jersey. What we are saying is: Brantsegg-Nygard is really, really great and deserves to be considered at the draft by New Jersey.

Here's a new mini-mock, probably pretty realistic if not entirely accurate, since we brought it up:

1 SJ C Celebrini
2 CHI W Demidov
3 ANH RD Levshunov
4 CLB C Lindstrom
5 MTL LW Catton
6 UTAH LD Silayev
7 OTT RD Yakemchuk
8 SEA LD Dickinson
9 CGY LW Iginla
10 NJ LD Buium
11 BUF RD Parekh
12 PHI C Helenius
13 MIN RW Brantsegg-Nygard
14 SJ LW Eiserman
15 DET W Chernyshov
16 STL RW Sennecke

 

[My3Sons]

This actually made me laugh, by no fault of your own.

When @Guadana and I assess a prospect, it does not necessarily mean we are assessing that prospect in relation to the New Jersey Devils. This is to say that I can talk for hours about how much I love Demidov or Lindstrom, but I also try to put it out there that there is no chance the Devils will get one of those guys unless they win the #2 or #3 slot in the draft lottery.

I believe that both @Guadana and I have stated multiple times that we think the Devils are most likely to select either one of the big 3 LD (Buium is probably the greatest possibility to fall) or Helenius with their likely #10 or #11 overall pick.

But our point is that, despite what the consensus tells us, Brantsegg-Nygard is on a very similar level of quality with some higher ranked forwards such as Helenius or Catton and even a better player than higher-consensus guys like Eiserman or Greentree.

We're not saying: Brantsegg-Nygard will be drafted by New Jersey. What we are saying is: Brantsegg-Nygard is really, really great and deserves to be considered at the draft by New Jersey.

Here's a new mini-mock, probably pretty realistic if not entirely accurate, since we brought it up:

1 SJ C Celebrini
2 CHI W Demidov
3 ANH RD Levshunov
4 CLB C Lindstrom
5 MTL LW Catton
6 UTAH LD Silayev
7 OTT RD Yakemchuk
8 SEA LD Dickinson
9 CGY LW Iginla
10 NJ LD Buium
11 BUF RD Parekh
12 PHI C Helenius
13 MIN RW Brantsegg-Nygard
14 SJ LW Eiserman
15 DET W Chernyshov
16 STL RW Sennecke

If Chernyshov played this season in North America where do you think he’d slot?

 

[longislanddevil]

It's definitely less likely than 25 % that the Devils will draft MBN. I know StevenToddIves, Guadana etc are excited about him, but his consensus ranking is lower than TOP 10 pick. I mean Bob even didn't have him in his TOP15 rankings.

Despite consensus rankings, I have MBN at 25% because he is exactly the type of player we need, Fitz’ history of “overdrafting” to get the guy he wants (see Muk) and this player’s recent surge.

 

[Guadana]

Despite consensus rankings, I have MBN at 25% because he is exactly the type of player we need, Fitz’ history of “overdrafting” to get the guy he wants (see Muk) and this player’s recent surge.

We had weak depth other defensive position. As we had on the right wing. Fitz picked Holtz, Mercer, Shaq, Stillman, Nemec for needs over consensus. Mercer was pick for need on the level of consensus. But right winger isn't the need now. If his scouts see center potential in him as I am, may be they will pull the trigger. But I can't bet on it.

 

[Goptor]

Only 1 more day of seeing all these terrible mock drafts that have the Devils picking at 10.

 

[StevenToddIves]

If Chernyshov played this season in North America where do you think he’d slot?

All I can say for sure is where I would personally rank Chernyshov.

Looking at the 16 rankings used in the player pages at eliteprospects.com, Chernyshov's consensus ranking is in the low 20s. He has 1 top 10 ranking (#10, Dobber) and two top 15 rankings (#13 THN Kennedy and #14 THN Ferrari -- who probably discuss prospects together often, much like myself and @Guadana have done in the past).

Chernyshov's low rankings are #28 by DraftProspects and #30 by McKeen's.

I'm not sure where the analytic lemmings like Bader have Chernyshov, but since he played mostly in the KHL in a checking role, I'm guessing he might not even be considered a 1st round pick by them.

It's impossible to say for sure of course, but I'm guessing if Chernyshov played in the CHL he'd have at least a comparable stat line to a guy like Liam Greentree (36-54-90).

Greentree is a power forward like Chernyshov, a wing like Chernyshov, who plays a similar type game at about the same size.

Comparing the two players, I would say Greentree certainly has the better shot, and I would also give him a slight edge in passing vision. Conversely, Chernyshov has an absolutely huge edge in skating, is the better puck handler, is better defensively and on the forecheck, is a better skater, has a slight edge in IQ and is the more competitive player in general.

None of this is a slight on Greentree, who is a very good prospect whom I really like, but then we take a look at his consensus rankings: as high as #6 overall (Smaht Scouting) with an additional #9 (THN Ferrari), and just one ranking outside the top 20 (#21, Sportsnet). Greentree's consensus ranking is probably in the #13-#14 range.

My question would obviously be -- what makes Greentree a better overall prospect than Chernyshov? I'm not sure but the difference is significant -- probably about 8 or 9 spots in the consensus favoring Greentree.

Ultimately, we all have different criteria when assessing hockey prospects. My top 3 are skating, IQ and compete level, all three of which favor Chernyshov over Greentree. If someone gave more weight to shooting and passing creativity for wingers, I'd guess it would be close to a dead heat between these two. But ranking Greentree at #6 and Chernyshov in the 20s simply makes no sense to me unless you haven't really watched much of Chernyshov.

Anyway, it's interesting to think about, but I can't give you a straight, confident answer. Personally, I have Chernyshov in my top 10 and Greentree will probably be in my mid-1st round range. They are both terrific young talents. But for my taste, Chernyshov's rare mix of power, smarts, skill and speed make him an extremely exciting and rare prospect.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

Would someone like to take a stab at the percentage chance the following players wind up being selected by the Devils at 10A? I’ll go first.

Helenius- 35%
MBN- 25%
Iginla- 20%
Buium- 15%
Dickinson- 5%

Only a 20% chance of a LD falling to 10OA in my exercise.

There is not anywhere close to a 35% or even 25% chance of them taking any one player at 10OA right now. There is probably at the very least 10 players who could be in consideration for that pick.

 

[evnted]

My question would obviously be -- what makes Greentree a better overall prospect than Chernyshov? I'm not sure but the difference is significant -- probably about 8 or 9 spots in the consensus favoring Greentree.

Ultimately, we all have different criteria when assessing hockey prospects. My top 3 are skating, IQ and compete level, all three of which favor Chernyshov over Greentree. If someone gave more weight to shooting and passing creativity for wingers, I'd guess it would be close to a dead heat between these two. But ranking Greentree at #6 and Chernyshov in the 20s simply makes no sense to me unless you haven't really watched much of Chernyshov.

ive struggled with this all season. it feels lazy to exclusively defer to exposure/nationality as the basis for the disparity, but i really dont have any other explanation. and like you said, thats not to disparage a solid prospect in greentree, i just dont see this gap (or even lead for him). people like to rag on the mhl for being easy to excel in as if greentree spending half the game floating around the neutral zone waiting for a breakout pass is any better lol

 

[My3Sons]

All I can say for sure is where I would personally rank Chernyshov.

Looking at the 16 rankings used in the player pages at eliteprospects.com, Chernyshov's consensus ranking is in the low 20s. He has 1 top 10 ranking (#10, Dobber) and two top 15 rankings (#13 THN Kennedy and #14 THN Ferrari -- who probably discuss prospects together often, much like myself and @Guadana have done in the past).

Chernyshov's low rankings are #28 by DraftProspects and #30 by McKeen's.

I'm not sure where the analytic lemmings like Bader have Chernyshov, but since he played mostly in the KHL in a checking role, I'm guessing he might not even be considered a 1st round pick by them.

It's impossible to say for sure of course, but I'm guessing if Chernyshov played in the CHL he'd have at least a comparable stat line to a guy like Liam Greentree (36-54-90).

Greentree is a power forward like Chernyshov, a wing like Chernyshov, who plays a similar type game at about the same size.

Comparing the two players, I would say Greentree certainly has the better shot, and I would also give him a slight edge in passing vision. Conversely, Chernyshov has an absolutely huge edge in skating, is the better puck handler, is better defensively and on the forecheck, is a better skater, has a slight edge in IQ and is the more competitive player in general.

None of this is a slight on Greentree, who is a very good prospect whom I really like, but then we take a look at his consensus rankings: as high as #6 overall (Smaht Scouting) with an additional #9 (THN Ferrari), and just one ranking outside the top 20 (#21, Sportsnet). Greentree's consensus ranking is probably in the #13-#14 range.

My question would obviously be -- what makes Greentree a better overall prospect than Chernyshov? I'm not sure but the difference is significant -- probably about 8 or 9 spots in the consensus favoring Greentree.

Ultimately, we all have different criteria when assessing hockey prospects. My top 3 are skating, IQ and compete level, all three of which favor Chernyshov over Greentree. If someone gave more weight to shooting and passing creativity for wingers, I'd guess it would be close to a dead heat between these two. But ranking Greentree at #6 and Chernyshov in the 20s simply makes no sense to me unless you haven't really watched much of Chernyshov.

Anyway, it's interesting to think about, but I can't give you a straight, confident answer. Personally, I have Chernyshov in my top 10 and Greentree will probably be in my mid-1st round range. They are both terrific young talents. But for my taste, Chernyshov's rare mix of power, smarts, skill and speed make him an extremely exciting and rare prospect.

I’ve just gotten the sense over the years that the European players are underrated in North America to begin with and the more obscure the league the less respect they get by and large. I can’t blame NJ for going to that well a fair amount.

 

[Guttersniped]

All I can say for sure is where I would personally rank Chernyshov.

Looking at the 16 rankings used in the player pages at eliteprospects.com, Chernyshov's consensus ranking is in the low 20s. He has 1 top 10 ranking (#10, Dobber) and two top 15 rankings (#13 THN Kennedy and #14 THN Ferrari -- who probably discuss prospects together often, much like myself and @Guadana have done in the past).

Chernyshov's low rankings are #28 by DraftProspects and #30 by McKeen's.

I'm not sure where the analytic lemmings like Bader have Chernyshov, but since he played mostly in the KHL in a checking role, I'm guessing he might not even be considered a 1st round pick by them.

It's impossible to say for sure of course, but I'm guessing if Chernyshov played in the CHL he'd have at least a comparable stat line to a guy like Liam Greentree (36-54-90).

Greentree is a power forward like Chernyshov, a wing like Chernyshov, who plays a similar type game at about the same size.

Comparing the two players, I would say Greentree certainly has the better shot, and I would also give him a slight edge in passing vision. Conversely, Chernyshov has an absolutely huge edge in skating, is the better puck handler, is better defensively and on the forecheck, is a better skater, has a slight edge in IQ and is the more competitive player in general.

None of this is a slight on Greentree, who is a very good prospect whom I really like, but then we take a look at his consensus rankings: as high as #6 overall (Smaht Scouting) with an additional #9 (THN Ferrari), and just one ranking outside the top 20 (#21, Sportsnet). Greentree's consensus ranking is probably in the #13-#14 range.

My question would obviously be -- what makes Greentree a better overall prospect than Chernyshov? I'm not sure but the difference is significant -- probably about 8 or 9 spots in the consensus favoring Greentree.

Ultimately, we all have different criteria when assessing hockey prospects. My top 3 are skating, IQ and compete level, all three of which favor Chernyshov over Greentree. If someone gave more weight to shooting and passing creativity for wingers, I'd guess it would be close to a dead heat between these two. But ranking Greentree at #6 and Chernyshov in the 20s simply makes no sense to me unless you haven't really watched much of Chernyshov.

Anyway, it's interesting to think about, but I can't give you a straight, confident answer. Personally, I have Chernyshov in my top 10 and Greentree will probably be in my mid-1st round range. They are both terrific young talents. But for my taste, Chernyshov's rare mix of power, smarts, skill and speed make him an extremely exciting and rare prospect.

Scouching Aggravate Ranking:


Don’t ask me how he calculated these numbers lol but here’s the average ranks he’s calculated. (The last two didn’t make his Top 80 so no average for them.)

Scouching Aggravate Ranking

1. Celebrini 1.00
2. Demidov 3.04
3. Catton 5.88
4. Levshunov 6.17
5. Lindstrom 6.38
6. Dickinson 7.38
7. Buium 8.00
8. Silayev 8.42
9. Eiserman 10.67
10. Parekh 11.08
11. Helenius 11.38
12. Iginla 13.13
13. Brandsegg-Nygard 14.21
14. Greentree 14.50
15. Connelly 14.83
16. Yakemchuk 16.35
17. Jiricek 16.96
18. Chernyshov 17.21
19. Hage 22.75
20. Sennecke 22.88
21. Boisvert 23.88
22. Bash 24.22
23. Hemming 24.95
24. Artamonov 24.95
25. Kiviharju 27.86
26. Freij 28.50
27. Ritchie 28.65
28. Stiga 31.57
29. Luchanko 32.90
30. Badinka 34.06
31. Misa 35.13
32. Pettersson 35.38
33. Parascak ?
34. Mews ?

Elite Prospects Consolidated Ranking Top 32

1. Celebrini
2. Demidov
3. Levshunov
4. Dickinson
5. Lindstrom
6. Catton
7. Silayev
8. Helenius
9. Buium
10. Parekh
11. Greentree
12. Brandsegg-Nygard
13. Iginla
14. Eiserman
15. Connelly
16. Yakemchuk
17. Jiricek
18. Chernyshov
19. Boisvert
20. Basha
21. Sennecke
22. Ritchie
23. Kiviharju
24. Hemming
25. Hage
26. Artamonov
27. Mews
28. Parascak
29. Elick
30. Hutson
31. Emery
32. Beaudoin

 

[Captain3rdLine]

Haven’t paid as much attention to prospects as in the past but have been catching up a bit recently. Of the guys that could potentially make it to us, if Eiserman or Buium get to us we should absolutely be taking them. Not overly likely they do make it to us (especially Buium)

Iginla is another guy that I’d be happy taking. Absolutely love Yakemchuck’s skillset and potential but not sure it makes sense given our RD situation. But still would be happy with that pick.

Not very interested in Dickinson, wouldn’t throw a fit over Helenius but there’s prospects I like more. Parekh is somewhat intriguing but don’t like him enough to want us to take him as a RD. Like Catton’s skill and potential. Some other guys I’d be okay with but don’t love and wouldn’t make me super excited. Not as high on MBN as some others.

The first two guys, and to a lesser extent Iginla would excite me.

In summary
My top 5 favorite possible outcomes atm
1. Eiserman
2. Buium

3. Iginla
4. Yakemchuck

5. Catton

 

[Guadana]

Haven’t paid as much attention to prospects as in the past but have been catching up a bit recently. Of the guys that could potentially make it to us, if Eiserman or Buium get to us we should absolutely be taking them. Not overly likely they do make it to us (especially Buium)

Iginla is another guy that I’d be happy taking. Absolutely love Yakemchuck’s skillset and potential but not sure it makes sense given our RD situation. But still would be happy with that pick.

Not very interested in Dickinson, wouldn’t throw a fit over Helenius but there’s prospects I like more. Parekh is somewhat intriguing but don’t like him enough to want us to take him as a RD. Like Catton’s skill and potential. Some other guys I’d be okay with but don’t love and wouldn’t make me super excited. Not as high on MBN as some others.

The first two guys, and to a lesser extent Iginla would excite me.

In summary
My top 5 favorite possible outcomes atm
1. Eiserman
2. Buium

3. Iginla
4. Yakemchuck

5. Catton

Why Buium? He looks stranger on this list.

 

[Guadana]

Scouching Aggravate Ranking:
View attachment 866276

Don’t ask me how he calculated these numbers lol but here’s the average ranks he’s calculated. (The last two didn’t make his Top 80 so no average for them.)

Scouching Aggravate Ranking

1. Celebrini 1.00
2. Demidov 3.04
3. Catton 5.88
4. Levshunov 6.17
5. Lindstrom 6.38
6. Dickinson 7.38
7. Buium 8.00
8. Silayev 8.42
9. Eiserman 10.67
10. Parekh 11.08
11. Helenius 11.38
12. Iginla 13.13
13. Brandsegg-Nygard 14.21
14. Greentree 14.50
15. Connelly 14.83
16. Yakemchuk 16.35
17. Jiricek 16.96
18. Chernyshov 17.21
19. Hage 22.75
20. Sennecke 22.88
21. Boisvert 23.88
22. Bash 24.22
23. Hemming 24.95
24. Artamonov 24.95
25. Kiviharju 27.86
26. Freij 28.50
27. Ritchie 28.65
28. Stiga 31.57
29. Luchanko 32.90
30. Badinka 34.06
31. Misa 35.13
32. Pettersson 35.38
33. Parascak ?
34. Mews ?

Elite Prospects Consolidated Ranking Top 32

1. Celebrini
2. Demidov
3. Levshunov
4. Dickinson
5. Lindstrom
6. Catton
7. Silayev
8. Helenius
9. Buium
10. Parekh
11. Greentree
12. Brandsegg-Nygard
13. Iginla
14. Eiserman
15. Connelly
16. Yakemchuk
17. Jiricek
18. Chernyshov
19. Boisvert
20. Basha
21. Sennecke
22. Ritchie
23. Kiviharju
24. Hemming
25. Hage
26. Artamonov
27. Mews
28. Parascak
29. Elick
30. Hutson
31. Emery
32. Beaudoin

Its scouching. I believe somewhere in his deep of his heart he has Catton as first overall.
I don't like too listen to him at all now, but I would listen what the divergence in 0.6 points between Buium and Dickinson and how he calculated it when one is big and very good skater with hands but without good iq and other one is of average size, very smart but with average skating.
I'm always intrigued by rating made like this.

 

[Devils731]

Its scouching. I believe somewhere in his deep of his heart he has Catton as first overall.
I don't like too listen to him at all now, but I would listen what the divergence in 0.6 points between Buium and Dickinson and how he calculated it when one is big and very good skater with hands but without good iq and other one is of average size, very smart but with average skating.
I'm always intrigued by rating made like this.

The scouching aggregate list is an average of different scouting lists he considers, I assume, good. He publishes what lists he includes somewhere.

So scouching isn’t making any call about this data, it’s just average data visualized so you can see where guys rank and how much variability a guys ranking has.

The blue line is the straight average and the red line is how much variability a player has. A player always ranked in the same spot has very little red while a player ranked all over the place has a lot of red.

This chart is going for a “wisdom of the crowds” approach to showing where players are ranked. That the results of many minds will be generally better than just 1; you will likely eliminate some obvious errors but also some brilliance.

 

[Guadana]

The scouching aggregate list is an average of different scouting lists he considers, I assume, good. He publishes what lists he includes somewhere.

So scouching isn’t making any call about this data, it’s just average data visualized so you can see where guys rank and how much variability a guys ranking has.

The blue line is the straight average and the red line is how much variability a player has. A player always ranked in the same spot has very little red while a player ranked all over the place has a lot of red.

This chart is going for a “wisdom of the crowds” approach to showing where players are ranked. That the results of many minds will be generally better than just 1; you will likely eliminate some obvious errors but also some brilliance.

So its the most unmeaningful thing just for clicks?

I think it is still important to listen to him - if a person draws the wrong conclusions, it does not mean that he cannot offer interesting takeaways and pay attention to important details. It is worth giving him a lot of credit - his analyses, even if I absolutely disagree with his conclusions and with the approach to analysis itself, are quite detailed, accurate and legible. His overall takes and vision are not so good.

 

[Devils731]

So its the most unmeaningful thing just for clicks?

I think it is still important to listen to him - if a person draws the wrong conclusions, it does not mean that he cannot offer interesting takeaways and pay attention to important details. It is worth giving him a lot of credit - his analyses, even if I absolutely disagree with his conclusions and with the approach to analysis itself, are quite detailed, accurate and legible. His overall takes and vision are not so good.

It’s as meaningful as it aims to be. It’s an aggregate of multiple lists so it’s not more nor less than that.

If you wanted to see where guys rank on average across many lists then this visual is great.

If you want to see what players are ranked very differently across many lists then this visual is great.

So it’s an interesting list to find those 2 above things but not something that is diving into the players with any individual opinion.

 

[Poppy Whoa Sonnet]

I'm starting to get enamored with the idea of adding either Silayev (unlikely) or Dickinson (possible) now. If the RHD go earlier maybe one of them drops. Not so sure about Buium who is left handed but brings something less needed.

Center remains the largest need in the prospect pool however. I think today if NJ gets one of Silayev/Dickinson/Lindstrom/Helenius/Catton I'll feel good about the pick.

 

[Hockey Sports Fan]

Is there even the usual Ritchie/Crouse/Paul Bittner?/(Kaapo Kakko ) type this year who goes top-15 just cuz they're big? That's the only thing I'd want to avoid.

Actually....looking back, Zacha was one of those, wasn't he?

 

[Poppy Whoa Sonnet]

Is there even the usual Ritchie/Crouse/Paul Bittner?/(Kaapo Kakko ) type this year who goes top-15 just cuz they're big? That's the only thing I'd want to avoid.

Actually....looking back, Zacha was one of those, wasn't he?

Lindstrom and Silayev have mixed resumes and will be drafted highly primarily due to their size.

 

[CalamityX23]

I'll say this though, if we don't go offense and take D, I hope we take the best Defender possible... I prefer a more sound and elite defensive Dman this time around with the perks of the offensive touch.

But definitely need a capable, defensive minded dman who can skate with the best of them and carry some man strength too.

 

[Blackjack]

Lindstrom and Silayev have mixed resumes and will be drafted highly primarily due to their size.

Lindstrom sure, but I thought Silayev’s age adjusted production was very strong?

 

[Hockey Sports Fan]

I'll say this though, if we don't go offense and take D, I hope we take the best Defender possible... I prefer a more sound and elite defensive Dman this time around with the perks of the offensive touch.

But definitely need a capable, defensive minded dman who can skate with the best of them and carry some man strength too.

I don’t disagree the team needs players like that, but historically, it’s folly to target those guys high in the draft.

 

[MasterofGrond]

If the Devils don't move, there's like 3 or 4 guys I'd be super happy with.

Which means we're going OFF THE BOARD