Prospect Info: 2024 NHL Draft Thread

[Captain3rdLine]

Why Buium? He looks stranger on this list.

Love his skating and think he has all the tools to be a top pairing puck moving defensemen who can play a ton of minutes.

Levshunov and Yakemchuck are the other two defensemen I really like at the top of this draft.

 

[forceten]

Which means we're going OFF THE BOARD

Oh no. Not this crap again.

 

[Devils731]

Oh no. Not this crap again.

View attachment 866473

If they do, it’ll be much more like this, where everyone eventually comes around on it.

 

[forceten]

I sure hope so! Muk wasn't anywhere near as off the board as Adrian Foster. Muk was a one round reach, Foster was a frigging reach around

 

[Captain3rdLine]

I'm starting to get enamored with the idea of adding either Silayev (unlikely) or Dickinson (possible) now. If the RHD go earlier maybe one of them drops. Not so sure about Buium who is left handed but brings something less needed.

Center remains the largest need in the prospect pool however. I think today if NJ gets one of Silayev/Dickinson/Lindstrom/Helenius/Catton I'll feel good about the pick.

Not overly interested in Silayev but would be fine with the pick if he somehow made it to us. Even less interested in Dickinson as I don’t think he has much upside apart from his shot. Gets around decently but I think his skating is pretty overrated overall.

Why not Buium?

 

[TBF1972]

Ok you need to stop this. Now I want to add him to the list for picks at 10.

you should add him to your list in a trade back scenario

 

[Captain3rdLine]

Lindstrom and Silayev have mixed resumes and will be drafted highly primarily due to their size.

Lindstrom sure, but I thought Silayev’s age adjusted production was very strong?

I think that’s completely unfair to Lindstrom. He’s where he is because he has a great offensive skillset.

Silayev on the other hand is mostly there for his size along with what he’s accomplished. Huge guy who was able to keep up at the KHL level and even throw in a few points. With the size, and half decent skating he could turn into a really good shutdown guy but the size is his main feature. Don’t feel like that is at all the case with Lindstrom.

 

[My3Sons]

you should add him to your list in a trade back scenario

the way a number of these players are described they sounds like great prospects. NJ only gets to pick one so hopefully it's the right one.

 

[TBF1972]

I’m not crapping on Helenius but I’m not super excited about drafting a kid at 10OA with no discernible elite skills besides hockey IQ. There are players like Buium, MBN and Chernyshov who could be available and have way higher ceilings. I’m not anti Helenius and would be ok with the pick. I just see way higher upside with these other players and solid floors. I am fully prepared for Fitz to pick Helenius due to our need at C and I would be ok with the pick. I am not anti-Helenius and he would fill a gaping need. I just like other players more.

helenius won't fill that need next season in the nhl. still c is a weak spot in our prospect pipeline.

 

[My3Sons]

helenius won't fill that need next season in the nhl. still c is a weak spot in our prospect pipeline.

It's disappointing how quickly center went from a strength to an organizational weakness.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Haven’t paid as much attention to prospects as in the past but have been catching up a bit recently. Of the guys that could potentially make it to us, if Eiserman or Buium get to us we should absolutely be taking them. Not overly likely they do make it to us (especially Buium)

Iginla is another guy that I’d be happy taking. Absolutely love Yakemchuck’s skillset and potential but not sure it makes sense given our RD situation. But still would be happy with that pick.

Not very interested in Dickinson, wouldn’t throw a fit over Helenius but there’s prospects I like more. Parekh is somewhat intriguing but don’t like him enough to want us to take him as a RD. Like Catton’s skill and potential. Some other guys I’d be okay with but don’t love and wouldn’t make me super excited. Not as high on MBN as some others.

The first two guys, and to a lesser extent Iginla would excite me.

In summary
My top 5 favorite possible outcomes atm
1. Eiserman
2. Buium

3. Iginla
4. Yakemchuck

5. Catton

Though anything is possible, I feel it's very unlikely the Devils take a RD at #10 overall. Disregarding our own opinions, Fitzgerald has shown a definite tendency to factor in organizational need with his early draft picks. With Nemec looking like a future all-star and Casey as the Devils #1 prospect, it's unlikely the Devils utilize this pick for an offensive right-defenseman who is light years behind these two guys defensively (ie: Parekh, Yakemchuk).

Debating Dickinson is probably a waste of our time. Defensemen with that type of size/skating combo don't normally last 10 picks in the draft, especially when they also show so much potential on both sides of the puck and have no red flags. I think there's a better chance of Dickinson going in the top 4 than there is of his falling to #10.

Eiserman is the wild card of the 2024 draft, to be certain. He's the best pure goal-scorer in the draft, and his size and skating combo is also pretty good. However, he's also a one-trick pony who has proven to be a liability for his team everywhere but the offensive zone. I don't know where to project him -- he can go in the top 3 or fall out of the top 15 entirely. He certainly can't be ruled out to the Devils at #10, but it's also probably important to note that the Devils will be intending to contend for the next 5 years and Eiserman is probably 5 years away from the NHL. I would assume Fitzgerald would be more inclined to look at guys like Helenius and Brantsegg-Nygard and Catton who are probably only 1 to 3 years away.

Iginla is certainly a player the Devils would like, but Calgary picks at #9 and I don't think anyone needs explaining on this front.

Buium is the guy on your list who probably makes the most sense, both from the standpoint of hypothetical draft position and organizational need. Obviously the Devils have a high-end young LD in Hughes and some solid prospects in Vilen, Karpovich, Misyul and Orlov but Buium is almost comparable to a left-shooting Nemec-type which would give the Devils a simply spectacular core to build the blueline around.

 

[Guttersniped]

So its the most unmeaningful thing just for clicks?

I think it is still important to listen to him - if a person draws the wrong conclusions, it does not mean that he cannot offer interesting takeaways and pay attention to important details. It is worth giving him a lot of credit - his analyses, even if I absolutely disagree with his conclusions and with the approach to analysis itself, are quite detailed, accurate and legible. His overall takes and vision are not so good.

Geez, that’s not his own list, it’s just a fun attempt to offer an aggragate of the public draft rankings.
Elite Prospects does it too, there’s others kicking around somewhere.

I responded to a post where Steve was trying to guesstimate where some prospects were being ranked. This is better than guesstimating.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

Though anything is possible, I feel it's very unlikely the Devils take a RD at #10 overall. Disregarding our own opinions, Fitzgerald has shown a definite tendency to factor in organizational need with his early draft picks. With Nemec looking like a future all-star and Casey as the Devils #1 prospect, it's unlikely the Devils utilize this pick for an offensive right-defenseman who is light years behind these two guys defensively (ie: Parekh, Yakemchuk).

Debating Dickinson is probably a waste of our time. Defensemen with that type of size/skating combo don't normally last 10 picks in the draft, especially when they also show so much potential on both sides of the puck and have no red flags. I think there's a better chance of Dickinson going in the top 4 than there is of his falling to #10.

Eiserman is the wild card of the 2024 draft, to be certain. He's the best pure goal-scorer in the draft, and his size and skating combo is also pretty good. However, he's also a one-trick pony who has proven to be a liability for his team everywhere but the offensive zone. I don't know where to project him -- he can go in the top 3 or fall out of the top 15 entirely. He certainly can't be ruled out to the Devils at #10, but it's also probably important to note that the Devils will be intending to contend for the next 5 years and Eiserman is probably 5 years away from the NHL. I would assume Fitzgerald would be more inclined to look at guys like Helenius and Brantsegg-Nygard and Catton who are probably only 1 to 3 years away.

Iginla is certainly a player the Devils would like, but Calgary picks at #9 and I don't think anyone needs explaining on this front.

Buium is the guy on your list who probably makes the most sense, both from the standpoint of hypothetical draft position and organizational need. Obviously the Devils have a high-end young LD in Hughes and some solid prospects in Vilen, Karpovich, Misyul and Orlov but Buium is almost comparable to a left-shooting Nemec-type which would give the Devils a simply spectacular core to build the blueline around.

I agree that Yakemchuck is very unlikely. Was more of a post on the prospects I like the most that could be possible and he is one of my favorites.

Is definitely a waste of time debating Dickinson. I agree he won’t likely get to 10 but I have watched him more than any other prospect and think he’s pretty overrated. Particularly his skating. Don’t think it’s as good as you and some others think. Don’t see much upside in him. Good shot at being a decent 2nd pairing dman but unlikely to be anything more than that IMO.

Agree on Buium and personally love his game. Agree that Eiserman is a wild card with some issues but think he has some of the best upside in the draft that I would be ecstatic to swing on at #10. Really hoping we end with one of those two guys.

Would be fine enough with Helenius or MBN but don’t love either.

 

[StevenToddIves]

The scouching aggregate list is an average of different scouting lists he considers, I assume, good. He publishes what lists he includes somewhere.

So scouching isn’t making any call about this data, it’s just average data visualized so you can see where guys rank and how much variability a guys ranking has.

The blue line is the straight average and the red line is how much variability a player has. A player always ranked in the same spot has very little red while a player ranked all over the place has a lot of red.

This chart is going for a “wisdom of the crowds” approach to showing where players are ranked. That the results of many minds will be generally better than just 1; you will likely eliminate some obvious errors but also some brilliance.

I usually defend Scouching, because unlike some of the stat-hounds doing draft analysis he actually also puts in the time to watch hockey and tries to give the prospects a more multi-faceted analysis.

But there is certainly a problem with weighing the numbers too heavily while scouting for the draft. As I wrote yesterday, how do we compare two "similar-type" power wingers in Chernyshov and Greentree when Greentree put up 90+ points in the OHL and Chernyshov scored I think 4 points in the KHL as a 17 year old? Of course, when @Guadana or or @evnted I are watching their games we are aware what their stat-lines look like. But I don't think any of us would disagree that Chernyshov is the superior prospect right now.

Furthermore -- and I think I'm going to call this "The Faber Rule" -- statistics for a defenseman in juniors are often complete garbage. When ranking Faber as a top-20 pick in 2020 I took a lot of heat from a lot of folks claiming that he wasn't good with the puck because his numbers blah blah blah, but many of these people had not even watched him play. Faber was a guy who did not take undue offensive chances unless the situation called for it, while defensemen routinely ranked ahead of him in that very same draft because of their numbers (Wallinder, Poirier, Grans, etc.) were clearly inferior to Faber either with or without the puck if you actually watched them play. Byron Bader left Faber out of his top 100 entirely.

Several defensemen over the past years would benefit from the same argument, I'm sure we all remember the detractors for Jake Sanderson and Moritz Seider to name a couple.

Again, I like Scouching because he puts in the work. But I would certainly listen to a guy like @Guadana over him when assessing a prospect, especially a defenseman.

 

[StevenToddIves]

I'm starting to get enamored with the idea of adding either Silayev (unlikely) or Dickinson (possible) now. If the RHD go earlier maybe one of them drops. Not so sure about Buium who is left handed but brings something less needed.

Center remains the largest need in the prospect pool however. I think today if NJ gets one of Silayev/Dickinson/Lindstrom/Helenius/Catton I'll feel good about the pick.

Keep in mind Catton is not a center. It doesn't matter how he is listed, he'll be a LW in the NHL. I do agree he's a heck of a hockey player.

Lindstrom will not fall to #10. Devils will have to win the #2 or #3 slot tonight in the lottery in order to get him.

I would say Helenius is my pick for most-likely Devils selection at #10 or #11 overall, but again this is a very wide-open draft after a clear top 2 of Celebrini/Demidov so I suppose we must keep open a multitude of possibilites and scenarios.

 

[Devils731]

I usually defend Scouching, because unlike some of the stat-hounds doing draft analysis he actually also puts in the time to watch hockey and tries to give the prospects a more multi-faceted analysis.

But there is certainly a problem with weighing the numbers too heavily while scouting for the draft. As I wrote yesterday, how do we compare two "similar-type" power wingers in Chernyshov and Greentree when Greentree put up 90+ points in the OHL and Chernyshov scored I think 4 points in the KHL as a 17 year old? Of course, when @Guadana or or @evnted I are watching their games we are aware what their stat-lines look like. But I don't think any of us would disagree that Chernyshov is the superior prospect right now.

Furthermore -- and I think I'm going to call this "The Faber Rule" -- statistics for a defenseman in juniors are often complete garbage. When ranking Faber as a top-20 pick in 2020 I took a lot of heat from a lot of folks claiming that he wasn't good with the puck because his numbers blah blah blah, but many of these people had not even watched him play. Faber was a guy who did not take undue offensive chances unless the situation called for it, while defensemen routinely ranked ahead of him in that very same draft because of their numbers (Wallinder, Poirier, Grans, etc.) were clearly inferior to Faber either with or without the puck if you actually watched them play. Byron Bader left Faber out of his top 100 entirely.

Several defensemen over the past years would benefit from the same argument, I'm sure we all remember the detractors for Jake Sanderson and Moritz Seider to name a couple.

Again, I like Scouching because he puts in the work. But I would certainly listen to a guy like @Guadana over him when assessing a prospect, especially a defenseman.

Maybe I’m missing something but what does any of this have to do with an aggregate draft list chart? I’m only asking because Guadana had a similar response and neither response seem applicable when talking about that chart.

It’s not a scouching draft list nor some statistical profile list. It’s literally just mashing together a bunch of different people’s draft lists.

If all the draft lists being used to make the chart had Faber at #10 then he would end up at #10 on that chart, the chart isn’t making any choices on its own based on anything.

 

[longislanddevil]

Is it a foregone conclusion that Calgary will select Iginla for the obvious reasons?? I understand the sentiment and the pressure that is on them to draft the kid. Surely, it would excite their fan base. However, the Flames have other organizational needs and Iginla’a position is not one of them. There is a human element involved but if Calgary has other players rated higher, they’re going to bypass that because of the story? That’s not what a good GM does. I am very curious to see what Fitz will do if Iginla, Helenius and MBN are all available at 10OA.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Is there even the usual Ritchie/Crouse/Paul Bittner?/(Kaapo Kakko ) type this year who goes top-15 just cuz they're big? That's the only thing I'd want to avoid.

Actually....looking back, Zacha was one of those, wasn't he?

Liam Greentree is a guy who is 6'3-210 and could go in the top 10, whereas I feel if he were 5'10-175 he'd be a 2nd or 3rd rounder. I'd say Silayev is a guy who would certainly not be a 1st round pick were it not for his size, but his combination of size/skating at 6'7 (and an awesome skater) might be the best we have ever seen from a draft-eligible LD.

But I don't see a guy like Philip Broberg in this draft, who was probably a mid-round level hockey player who went top 10 in a stacked draft class only because he was really big and really fast. Even if someone brought up Silayev as a comparison, I'd say it was unfair because Silayev is significantly better defensively at the same age and three inches taller.

Lindstrom and Silayev have mixed resumes and will be drafted highly primarily due to their size.

Disagree STRONGLY on Lindstrom. Outstanding skating, high skill level, tremendous goal-scorer with an elite compete level.

Sure he's not a top 5 pick without the size, but even without the size I might be comparing him to a guy like Seth Jarvis who is one of my all-time draft favorites.

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

Once again, I apologize ahead of time since you guys definitely probably brought him up already with all the draft talk you guys do @Guadana @StevenToddIves, but thoughts on Konsta Helenius?

 

[Xirik]

I usually defend Scouching, because unlike some of the stat-hounds doing draft analysis he actually also puts in the time to watch hockey and tries to give the prospects a more multi-faceted analysis.

But there is certainly a problem with weighing the numbers too heavily while scouting for the draft. As I wrote yesterday, how do we compare two "similar-type" power wingers in Chernyshov and Greentree when Greentree put up 90+ points in the OHL and Chernyshov scored I think 4 points in the KHL as a 17 year old? Of course, when @Guadana or or @evnted I are watching their games we are aware what their stat-lines look like. But I don't think any of us would disagree that Chernyshov is the superior prospect right now.

Furthermore -- and I think I'm going to call this "The Faber Rule" -- statistics for a defenseman in juniors are often complete garbage. When ranking Faber as a top-20 pick in 2020 I took a lot of heat from a lot of folks claiming that he wasn't good with the puck because his numbers blah blah blah, but many of these people had not even watched him play. Faber was a guy who did not take undue offensive chances unless the situation called for it, while defensemen routinely ranked ahead of him in that very same draft because of their numbers (Wallinder, Poirier, Grans, etc.) were clearly inferior to Faber either with or without the puck if you actually watched them play. Byron Bader left Faber out of his top 100 entirely.

Several defensemen over the past years would benefit from the same argument, I'm sure we all remember the detractors for Jake Sanderson and Moritz Seider to name a couple.

Again, I like Scouching because he puts in the work. But I would certainly listen to a guy like @Guadana over him when assessing a prospect, especially a defenseman.

I like it and I may have to steal it.

(credit given to you of course)

 

[StevenToddIves]

If the Devils don't move, there's like 3 or 4 guys I'd be super happy with.

Which means we're going OFF THE BOARD

Let's give Fitzgerald some credit. He's done really well with all his 1st round picks with the exception of Holtz, which was a meh pick but not terrible.

 

[MartyOwns]

if we're picking at 10, i'm really hoping we package the pick in a trade for an actual decent goalie. that is a much bigger immediate need to fill.

 

[StevenToddIves]

I sure hope so! Muk wasn't anywhere near as off the board as Adrian Foster. Muk was a one round reach, Foster was a frigging reach around

Haha... Adrian Foster. My word.

I wrote about a million pages on the Mukhamadullin pick, which I thought was a solid pick at the time, though I really really wanted Brock Faber. He ended up being the main return for Timo Meier, so I think it has to be considered a very strong pick in historical context.

 

[Guadana]

Geez, that’s not his own list, it’s just a fun attempt to offer an aggragate of the public draft rankings.
Elite Prospects does it too, there’s others kicking around somewhere.

I responded to a post where Steve was trying to guesstimate where some prospects were being ranked. This is better than guesstimating.

Thanks for the explanation. It doesn't change anything in general, but still.

It’s as meaningful as it aims to be. It’s an aggregate of multiple lists so it’s not more nor less than that.

If you wanted to see where guys rank on average across many lists then this visual is great.

If you want to see what players are ranked very differently across many lists then this visual is great.

So it’s an interesting list to find those 2 above things but not something that is diving into the players with any individual opinion.

It’s an aggregate of multiple specific lists so it’s not more nor less than that.
I dont want to see overall list of all or not so all lists.

Overall I understand what you did say from the first try. Thanks.

 

[StevenToddIves]

I agree that Yakemchuck is very unlikely. Was more of a post on the prospects I like the most that could be possible and he is one of my favorites.

Is definitely a waste of time debating Dickinson. I agree he won’t likely get to 10 but I have watched him more than any other prospect and think he’s pretty overrated. Particularly his skating. Don’t think it’s as good as you and some others think. Don’t see much upside in him. Good shot at being a decent 2nd pairing dman but unlikely to be anything more than that IMO.

Agree on Buium and personally love his game. Agree that Eiserman is a wild card with some issues but think he has some of the best upside in the draft that I would be ecstatic to swing on at #10. Really hoping we end with one of those two guys.

Would be fine enough with Helenius or MBN but don’t love either.

I think in general "high floor" players are underrated on draft day. Is Konsta Helenius ever going to be a 100-point scoring 1C in the NHL? I would have to highly highly doubt this possibility, of course. But it's pretty impossible not to love the kid watching him play, and anyone who looks at a kid with a very-good-across-the-board skill set and elite IQ/compete like him has to realize the chances of him NOT making the NHL are infinitesimal.

The Devils sorely need centers in the system, Helenius is a surefire NHL player and possibly a very good one. He's also a versatile guy you can plug in as a wing in your top 6 or as the 3C behind your two star centers in Hughes and Hischier. He might not be a *sexy* pick but he would certainly be a *good* pick.

As for Brantsegg-Nygard, I think his upside is being sorely underrated. He's huge and knows how to use his size, he's a terrific skater, he has a bomb of a shot, he's the best defensive winger in the entire 2024 class, and he has an elite combination of hockey IQ/compete level. What is there about this description that leads anyone to believe he can't be a top-6, goal-scoring, two-way power forward? I think that's a really nice get in the #10-#15 range on draft day. Sure he's not going to dazzle you like a Catton, but he offers more versatility, physicality and speed. He's a heck of a hockey player.

Buium is the highest hockey IQ D for the 2024 class, and it's not close. He's got high-scoring potential and also plays very good defensively. I think we all would be thrilled if the Devils got him at #10, but again 9 teams would have to pass on him first, which is not extremely likely.