Killing Joke
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- Dec 2, 2017
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Prospect Info: 2024 NHL Draft Thread
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It's certainly possible, but to be honest it doesn't feel to me like a Fitzgerald pick. I'll have to take a look.
Guadana
Registered User
Its a matter of who is available. If Helenius and Dickinson, Buium are not available, I can easily see Fitz will draft Catton over Nygard. Between Iginla and Catton its a very interesting how Fitz would draft, but I don't think there is a big chance two can be available in the same time for 10th pick.
Oh -- I always forget 2021, because it was during a pandemic year and Stillman wasn't even the most shortsighted pick in that draft which included an actually "burned" pick in round 6 (Hurtig) and the Devils most myopic 3rd round reach since Connor Chatham in 2014 (Salminen).
2021 was a tough draft for several teams, for several reasons, but it's tough to regret too much because we wound up with probably the best player in the entire class in Luke Hughes. Admittedly, it is tough to swallow that we had one of the the 24 post-Wyatt-Johnston-picks in that draft which passed on Logan Stankoven, but that's unfortunately how things shook out.
Wrong thread, sir -- this is for discussing draft prospects, not for suggesting targetless trades.
Ok so I just checked out Pronman's post-lottery mock draft:
theathletic.com
Not terrible, but certainly rushed. It was certainly a bad idea to suggest a top-10 trade-up (Calgary and Montreal) from the team least likely to want to trade up (Calgary) in the top 10.
Calgary needs a D and its fan base wants Iginla. All of these things should be available at #9. There is no way on earth they would package a much-needed pick later in the 1st round to move up 4 slots for something they would be able to get standing pat. It's that simple.
As for the Devils pick, the first problem is listing Catton as a center. Catton will not play center in the NHL. I would say if the first 9 picks go as Pronman suggests, the most likely Devils pick at #10 would be Helenius for this reason. I also don't love the endless comparisons of Catton to Jarvis and Benson because of scoring totals and lack of size + elite skating. Jarvis and Benson were both better 200-foot players and more willing to create offense from the interior. Though I am high on Catton and feel he will be a very good NHLer, I would not consider him quite on the level as those two, nor will he crack the NHL as fast. Taking this into light, I feel the Devils would be more likely to take Helenius, who will play in the NHL sooner and be able to play center once he arrives.
NHL Mock Draft 2024: Macklin Celebrini to Sharks as we pick for every lottery team
The Athletic's NHL writers make the first 16 picks in the draft order, and Pronman audits the picks.
theathletic.com
Not terrible, but certainly rushed. It was certainly a bad idea to suggest a top-10 trade-up (Calgary and Montreal) from the team least likely to want to trade up (Calgary) in the top 10.
Calgary needs a D and its fan base wants Iginla. All of these things should be available at #9. There is no way on earth they would package a much-needed pick later in the 1st round to move up 4 slots for something they would be able to get standing pat. It's that simple.
As for the Devils pick, the first problem is listing Catton as a center. Catton will not play center in the NHL. I would say if the first 9 picks go as Pronman suggests, the most likely Devils pick at #10 would be Helenius for this reason. I also don't love the endless comparisons of Catton to Jarvis and Benson because of scoring totals and lack of size + elite skating. Jarvis and Benson were both better 200-foot players and more willing to create offense from the interior. Though I am high on Catton and feel he will be a very good NHLer, I would not consider him quite on the level as those two, nor will he crack the NHL as fast. Taking this into light, I feel the Devils would be more likely to take Helenius, who will play in the NHL sooner and be able to play center once he arrives.
Ok so I just checked out Pronman's post-lottery mock draft:
NHL Mock Draft 2024: Macklin Celebrini to Sharks as we pick for every lottery team
The Athletic's NHL writers make the first 16 picks in the draft order, and Pronman audits the picks.
Not terrible, but certainly rushed. It was certainly a bad idea to suggest a top-10 trade-up (Calgary and Montreal) from the team least likely to want to trade up (Calgary) in the top 10.
Calgary needs a D and its fan base wants Iginla. All of these things should be available at #9. There is no way on earth they would package a much-needed pick later in the 1st round to move up 4 slots for something they would be able to get standing pat. It's that simple.
As for the Devils pick, the first problem is listing Catton as a center. Catton will not play center in the NHL. I would say if the first 9 picks go as Pronman suggests, the most likely Devils pick at #10 would be Helenius for this reason. I also don't love the endless comparisons of Catton to Jarvis and Benson because of scoring totals and lack of size + elite skating. Jarvis and Benson were both better 200-foot players and more willing to create offense from the interior. Though I am high on Catton and feel he will be a very good NHLer, I would not consider him quite on the level as those two, nor will he crack the NHL as fast. Taking this into light, I feel the Devils would be more likely to take Helenius, who will play in the NHL sooner and be able to play center once he arrives.
They really should not allow these writers to "trade" picks in the mock. It's stupid, it's way too tempting for the writers to go into fantasy mode, and it almost never happens in real life. Can't remember the last time a top 15 pick was traded at the draft. I'm guessing it's 10-15 years.
Unknown Caller
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Agreed. Selfishly I love would love for them to take Catton if available, but I have a hard time believing he makes that pick.
Passing on Catton at 10 would be a terrible terrible mistake. Even with his “injury concern” he put up a casual 116 points and slots in as a natural center.
Well, I've done enough mock drafts for enough web sites to know that you pretty much can't do one without looking like an idiot somewhere or another haha. This year's draft may be the hardest to mock in history, because once you get past Celebrini and Demidov, teams' draft boards are going to be all over the place.
However, this also makes "trading up" at the draft less likely, in the sense that if you're picking in the 10-15 range there's a good chance someone in your top 5 falls to you. It's not like most years when the top 5 or 7 or 9 picks or whatever are anything resembling universal. I wouldn't be surprised if some team had Eiserman as high as their top 3 and I wouldn't be surprised if some team had him outside their top 25, and I'd probably say the same for Silayev and Parekh.
Guadana
Registered User
If Helenius is available - it would be pretty okay decision. Or Buium. Or Dickinson.
In all likelihood, Catton will not play center in the NHL, he will slot as a LW. I'd say his closest NHL comparable is Cole Perfetti, both in CHL production and play style. Perfetti has been employed exclusively as a wing in his pro career.
We can say Catton is a bit more of a finisher and Perfetti a bit more of a vision guy, but they are both left-shots who played center in the CHL, they are similar in their size and skating combos and skill levels, and Perfetti actually had a slightly better PPG in his draft year (111 pts in 61 games) than Catton (116 pts in 68 games).
Perfetti actually went a bit lower than expected in the 2020 draft, falling to Winnipeg at -- you guessed it -- #10 overall, exactly where the Devils pick this year. His consensus rating was, also much like Catton this year, generally in the 5-8 range.
Where it gets interesting is that, in a 2020 redraft, Perfetti likely drops a bit further. While his future as a high scoring top-6 winger is certainly still attainable, I do not think he would still be picked ahead of Dawson Mercer, much less Seth Jarvis and Kaiden Guhle.
Ultimately, it's a mistake to draft a player strictly on statistical measures more than it's a mistake to not draft a player because they put up great statistics. Stats are simply one of the many factors one must utilize when assessing a prospect come draft day.
I really like Berkly Catton. I think he'll be top 6 LW in the NHL someday for some team, and I think he'll be a productive scorer. But -- especially in a draft year as unpredictable as this one -- I'd have a tough time saying with confidence he'll be the best fit in New Jersey at #10 overall come draft day. The Devils need centers and Konsta Helenius will likely be the best one available, and he's also a heck of a player. The Devils need LD and Zeev Buium could be available and put up an even more impressive stat line than Catton. There are many possibilities to consider.
I looked up a few more post-lottery mock drafts:
Sporting News: Catton
Pronman: Catton
FloHockey: Iginla
Button/TSN: Buium
Sportsnet: Buium
HockeyWriters: Iginla
DailyFaceoff: Eiserman
SBNation: Helenius
That's all I could dig up right now, but I'd guess many more are coming out in the next day or two. We can ask the neighborhood research genius @Guttersniped if we're feeling lazy.
Personally, if I was forced to bet right now, I'd say "Buium or Dickinson if they fall to us, Helenius if they do not". This is not my personal preference, this is just years of studying Fitzgerald and the Devils organization.
Fitzgerald has yet to draft a sub-6'0 forward in the first 5 rounds. While Helenius, Iginla and Catton are all listed at 5'11, Helenius and Iginla are both more solidly built and both play a more physical, interior style. Catton is by no means soft and he's certainly willing to go to the net, but I don't think anyone would argue he does most of his work on the perimeter.
I think Buium or Dickinson are the pick if they fall to #10, which I'd say amounts to very low odds for Dickinson and so-so odds for Buium. Fitzgerald seems to want to build more from the blueline out and get more difficult to play against, both of these players would fill this role, and the Devils could certainly use some more bolstering at LD beyond Hughes/Bahl even if they're pretty set for the future at RD with Nemec, Casey and a boatload of depth prospects.
Obviously, the Devils thinnest position organizationally speaking is center. Sure, Hischier and Hughes give the team a bright future long term, but the team's only viable prospect up the middle is Zakhar Bardakov. Unfortunately, this is not a draft very strong up the middle, and the top center available when the Devils pick is almost certain to be Helenius, unless New Jersey is blessed with some miracle and Cayden Lindstrom somehow falls.
I do not see the Devils picking Catton. Eiserman has to be considered a possibility, as he's pretty much a better-scoring, worse-playing-hockey version of Alexander Holtz, who I'd say Fitzgerald reached for a bit back in 2020. Again, I still think Holtz will be a 30+ goal scorer in the NHL, but while Eiserman's upside is more like 60+ goals, his downside is a terrifying possibility of washing out altogether and never making the NHL. Eiserman may be one of the scariest prospects we have ever seen come draft day because he is so elite at one thing but so questionable with so many other things.
I've saved Iginla for last because I really cannot see Calgary passing on him. They have no high scoring snipers in the system and, even though they probably need defensemen more, it's going to be really tough to justify to their fanbase if they pass on Tij.
Helenius for C, Buium for LD, Nygaard for Power Forward. all three are needs for us, I'd be thrilled with any of the three.
Center becomes even more dire when you realize we only have 3 more years of Hischier signed...
Center becomes even more dire when you realize we only have 3 more years of Hischier signed...
@StevenToddIves Do you think the Devils may view MBN as a center at the NHL level? It seems he brings so many attributes that the team would be looking for. If this kid was a natural center, do you think Fitzgerald would covet him more than Helenius?
2024 Draft Profile:
RD Henry Mews, Ottawa OHL
In a draft full of wild cards, Mews stands as one of the wildest. This is a player who could slip into the top 15, and also a player who can fall out of the 1st round entirely. There are many things to like about him, but also some concerns which are difficult to ignore.
Mews can be described as an offense-first defenseman, with his PPG draft-eligible campaign and propensity to join the rush. But he's not an offense-only defenseman like a Parekh, because he's actually pretty good in his gaps and coverage and work ethic in the defensive zone.
I'd say Mews' calling card is skating -- this kid can downright fly. He's certainly in the conversation for fastest defenseman coming out of the OHL this year. He's got great edges and acceleration, just terrific on his skates. He compliments his skating with very good puck skills, a not-hard-but-extremely-accurate shot and the capability of making high end passes. He's very good with his outlet passing but prefers to rush the puck himself.
Mews needs work defensively in his positioning and reads, but he's certainly passable in these respects. He's willing to mix it up with larger forwards despite not being big at 6'0-180 or thereabouts. He can be beat by high-skill or high-strength opposing forwards, but again, it's pretty impossible to out-skate him so you'd assume he'd be able to recover quickly from lost battles.
This leads to the problem with Mews -- without getting into it too much because I really like his overall potential, he is one of the most easily frustrated prospects I've seen. He's more likely to bang his stick on the ice or yell at a ref when making a mistake than he is to actually try to get back into the play. When things are going well for him, Mews looks like a first round pick. When faced with adversity, Mews can unravel pretty quickly and his entire game falls apart. In almost uncannily divergent games in which I've seen him, Mews has been both the very best player on the ice and the very worst. I feel this is why his scoring totals are so far below a guy like Sam Dickinson, whom Mews is actually more offensively skilled than.
So where do you draft Henry Mews? I think it largely depends on how you feel about him after you interview him. He's got some maturing to do, for certain, but he's also potentially a very productive NHL player.
RD Henry Mews, Ottawa OHL
In a draft full of wild cards, Mews stands as one of the wildest. This is a player who could slip into the top 15, and also a player who can fall out of the 1st round entirely. There are many things to like about him, but also some concerns which are difficult to ignore.
Mews can be described as an offense-first defenseman, with his PPG draft-eligible campaign and propensity to join the rush. But he's not an offense-only defenseman like a Parekh, because he's actually pretty good in his gaps and coverage and work ethic in the defensive zone.
I'd say Mews' calling card is skating -- this kid can downright fly. He's certainly in the conversation for fastest defenseman coming out of the OHL this year. He's got great edges and acceleration, just terrific on his skates. He compliments his skating with very good puck skills, a not-hard-but-extremely-accurate shot and the capability of making high end passes. He's very good with his outlet passing but prefers to rush the puck himself.
Mews needs work defensively in his positioning and reads, but he's certainly passable in these respects. He's willing to mix it up with larger forwards despite not being big at 6'0-180 or thereabouts. He can be beat by high-skill or high-strength opposing forwards, but again, it's pretty impossible to out-skate him so you'd assume he'd be able to recover quickly from lost battles.
This leads to the problem with Mews -- without getting into it too much because I really like his overall potential, he is one of the most easily frustrated prospects I've seen. He's more likely to bang his stick on the ice or yell at a ref when making a mistake than he is to actually try to get back into the play. When things are going well for him, Mews looks like a first round pick. When faced with adversity, Mews can unravel pretty quickly and his entire game falls apart. In almost uncannily divergent games in which I've seen him, Mews has been both the very best player on the ice and the very worst. I feel this is why his scoring totals are so far below a guy like Sam Dickinson, whom Mews is actually more offensively skilled than.
So where do you draft Henry Mews? I think it largely depends on how you feel about him after you interview him. He's got some maturing to do, for certain, but he's also potentially a very productive NHL player.
Of the reasonable options at 10, Catton would be my preferred choice. But no issue with Helenius.
I don't see Leshunov or Silayev being available at 10, and I am not as partial to the other D available.
I think we would all agree that Bedard is the best pure shooter to come out of the draft in the 2020s. I'd say Eiserman is #2. His shot is the highest level of elite. The problem is the rest of Eiserman's game.
It's tough to say with any confidence. I mean, I'd hope so. @Guadana wrote a few really great and informative posts on this thread explaining in detail why Brandsegg-Nygard could be fairly easily transitioned to center at the highest levels.
As most of us know, I'd be downright thrilled if the Devils took Brandsegg-Nygard at #10 overall. He'd make our top 6 faster, better defensively and tougher to play against in the very near future -- I'd say he's only a couple years away from NHL ready. And if he was transitioned to center he could be the answer to our long-standing questions at 3C.
Of the players we are discussing, who is the most NHL ready right now and how long do you think it’d be before they’re in NJ? Knowing that his seat may be warming up, if all things are considered relatively equal, maybe the timeframe plays a factor for Fitzgerald?
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CalamityX23
Registered User
- May 2, 2023
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Brandsegg-Nygard come on down!!!!!
I’m not sure if you can expect a full response from @Guttersniped who has moved on from research and analysis to tasteful and restrained facial art very recently.
Stephen Gionta
Boston College > Boston University
Iginla is one of the youngest players in the draft, He probably has the biggest chance to have a small growth spurt.
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