Prospect Info: 2024 NHL Draft Thread

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StevenToddIves

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Is it a foregone conclusion that Calgary will select Iginla for the obvious reasons?? I understand the sentiment and the pressure that is on them to draft the kid. Surely, it would excite their fan base. However, the Flames have other organizational needs and Iginla’a position is not one of them. There is a human element involved but if Calgary has other players rated higher, they’re going to bypass that because of the story? That’s not what a good GM does. I am very curious to see what Fitz will do if Iginla, Helenius and MBN are all available at 10OA.
I think for Calgary it's probably already down to Iginla or a defenseman. If they passed Iginla for a F and Iginla turned out to be better -- well that's a job killer for a GM right there. You carry that mistake around forever.

Once again, I apologize ahead of time since you guys definitely probably brought him up already with all the draft talk you guys do @Guadana @StevenToddIves, but thoughts on Konsta Helenius?
I wrote him up a few days ago, here it is again:

2024 Draft Profile:

C Konsta Helenius, Jukurit LIIGA

The danger of not factoring in intangibles while rating a draft-eligible hockey player cannot be stated better than with the example of the top Finnish player for the 2024 draft, Konsta Helenius. A high hockey IQ and compete level, after all, will play up every single skill on a player's scouting card.

Konsta Helenius' physical skills are good to very good across the board, but there's also nothing standout or elite. He's 5'11-175, which is not small but a bit undersized for the position of center, which he's playing as a teenager in the top Finland men's league. He's a good skater, in terms of fundamentals, efficiency and speed, but he's not going to wow you with this ability. He's a very good passer and shooter and stickhandler but, again, none of them are elite tools.

So, we have to ask ourselves how a player so seemingly unremarkable has put together one of the better seasons we've ever seen from a draft-eligible center in the Finnish Liiga?

It's really simple, actually. Because Konsta Helenius' rare combination of elite IQ and elite compete level are, indeed, remarkable. This is a kid who at 17/18 years old would regularly outthink and outwork 10-year veterans of the Finnish elite league.

"Hockey IQ" scares a lot of people as a term, because in an age of analytic analysis, it's impossible to precisely quantify. But it's an ability with several applications. For example, Helenius' high hockey IQ is deployed far differently in game scenarios than, say, Ivan Demidov's. Where Demidov can accurately be called an offensive genius, most of his incredible brain is focused on getting pucks into high-danger scoring areas, whether on his own stick or a teammate's. Demidov is quite simply a creative genius, able to see ridiculously unconventional paths to scoring opportunities much like Monet would see a painting before he made it or Mozart would hear a symphony before he wrote it.

With Helenius, it's different. While Helenius is certainly creative enough to produce offense in seemingly adverse conditions, his general hockey IQ is less "artistic" -- it's almost like the highest form of practicality. It's like his brain is more purely mathematical, able to process the game situation, the location of his teammates and opposition, and what he needs to do and where to be -- all at unbelievably high speeds.

I wish I had the time to watch every one of this kid's games, because in the 8 or so games I've watched Helenius in I don't think I've seen him make a single poor decision with or without the puck, I don't think I've ever seen him make a half-assed or lazy play, I don't think I've ever seen him make a glaring mental mistake. Also, we need to factor this in with the fact that he's the youngest center in a professional men's league -- and unlike players of this description coming before him (Lundell, Barkov, Kotkaniemi etc), he's also a bit undersized.

We need to stress again that Helenius is not *unskilled*, as some would have you believe. Again, he's very good across the board -- skating, shooting, puck handling, passing, you name it. But he lacks the elite skills of a player who would normally be considered a top 10 pick. However, I'm going to state strongly that Helenius deserves this designation -- he's just too good at hockey and too high-character a kid to fail at any level.

Do I think Konsta Helenius will ever be a 100+ point player? No, I do not. But I do think you cannot go wrong drafting a high-floor kid who is a virtual lock to be one of the better 2/3 centers in the NHL one day. Maybe he'll top out around 70 points, but Helenius will also give whatever team drafts him a constant litany of high-effort and high-intelligence two-way hockey for many, many years to come.
 

StevenToddIves

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if we're picking at 10, i'm really hoping we package the pick in a trade for an actual decent goalie. that is a much bigger immediate need to fill.
NOTE I'M SURE WE WILL ALL AGREE ON:

Please no "trade the #10 overall pick" posts on the draft page. This thread is about discussing the draft prospects, not arguing trading the pick. It's a completely different subject matter entirely. Let's leave the trade talk on the main threads.
 

Guadana

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I usually defend Scouching, because unlike some of the stat-hounds doing draft analysis he actually also puts in the time to watch hockey and tries to give the prospects a more multi-faceted analysis.

But there is certainly a problem with weighing the numbers too heavily while scouting for the draft. As I wrote yesterday, how do we compare two "similar-type" power wingers in Chernyshov and Greentree when Greentree put up 90+ points in the OHL and Chernyshov scored I think 4 points in the KHL as a 17 year old? Of course, when @Guadana or or @evnted I are watching their games we are aware what their stat-lines look like. But I don't think any of us would disagree that Chernyshov is the superior prospect right now.

Furthermore -- and I think I'm going to call this "The Faber Rule" -- statistics for a defenseman in juniors are often complete garbage. When ranking Faber as a top-20 pick in 2020 I took a lot of heat from a lot of folks claiming that he wasn't good with the puck because his numbers blah blah blah, but many of these people had not even watched him play. Faber was a guy who did not take undue offensive chances unless the situation called for it, while defensemen routinely ranked ahead of him in that very same draft because of their numbers (Wallinder, Poirier, Grans, etc.) were clearly inferior to Faber either with or without the puck if you actually watched them play. Byron Bader left Faber out of his top 100 entirely.

Several defensemen over the past years would benefit from the same argument, I'm sure we all remember the detractors for Jake Sanderson and Moritz Seider to name a couple.

Again, I like Scouching because he puts in the work. But I would certainly listen to a guy like @Guadana over him when assessing a prospect, especially a defenseman.
Bader likes Eiserman. When Im watching Eiserman against kids on U18 I just cant live with his lack of compete level, where he is just isnt in position. losing puck battles, losing his defensive zone, cant make really good pass, cant start fast. Yeah, shot is great, positioning for the shot is good, but mostly scoring in nhl is about many many so many things to do. Winning is about much more things.
Its okay if it doesnt work with defensemen but it doesnt work with forwards. At all. It could work in bigger picture but when we are taking specific player, this numbers dont work. Because production is not the reason, production is just a result of growing process, specific skills, roles, league etc. Kakko was very productive in Liiga, Slafkovsky wasnt but he is already better and more productive player. Its not because of luck or some magic - its because he has specific skills and played specific role in Liiga, every skill Kakko has were good enough to score on Liiga level, but its not enough for him to produce enough on NHL level, Slafkovsky played more minor role and his skills are good enough to produce on NHL level. His scoring isnt good or bad because he was or was not productive before. Productivity figures are the result of many factors, and they never are and will never be a reason to rely on.

With regard to the overall ratings, it is the same.
They don't mean anything. Entire teams of internet scouts or journalists scouts sit and celebrate their vision, which may or may not be the assessment of the real scouts of NHL teams. NHL scouts differ in their assessment. What can we say about writers who are trying to equalize hundreds of players without having real risks and worries. Many have their own biases - be it in size, leagues, positions, etc.

Mostly I dont care. I care about what people say and what conclusions they are making. Often it can be very helpful even if I dont agree with someone overall.
 

MartyOwns

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NOTE I'M SURE WE WILL ALL AGREE ON:

Please no "trade the #10 overall pick" posts on the draft page. This thread is about discussing the draft prospects, not arguing trading the pick. It's a completely different subject matter entirely. Let's leave the trade talk on the main threads.
how's this then: nobody (likely) available at 10 blows me away at a position we absolutely need during our window that is sort of kind of open. i would much rather have an established goalie than cole eiserman or whoever in a few years.
 

Guadana

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how's this then: nobody (likely) available at 10 blows me away at a position we absolutely need during our window that is sort of kind of open. i would much rather have an established goalie than cole eiserman or whoever in a few years.
If you dont know draft class doesnt mean there are no good players to draft. You can read at least what Steve is writing, he spent a lot of time to watch and profile this players. And start to cheer for drafting one player or another. There are different threads to dream about wasting very good pick for future UFA 30+ yo goalie
 

MartyOwns

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If you dont know draft class doesnt mean there are no good players to draft. You can read at least what Steve is writing, he spent a lot of time to watch and profile this players. And start to cheer for drafting one player or another. There are different threads to dream about wasting very good pick for future UFA 30+ yo goalie
I read everything steven writes, and other outlets draft coverage as well (because I don't actually watch anyone really except the projected top 3). The guys profiled here would have me very excited in 2019, but we're in a different place now. And while these all seem like great prospects, none of them really move the needle enough for me to say that our pick is not for sale given the current state of the team. that's what i meant to say.
 
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Guadana

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I read everything steven writes, and other outlets draft coverage as well (because I don't actually watch anyone really except the projected top 3). The guys profiled here would have me very excited in 2019, but we're in a different place now. And while these all seem like great prospects, none of them really move the needle enough for me to say that our pick is not for sale given the current state of the team. that's what i meant to say.
Carolina and Dallas were and are in specific state of their teams. Still both teams are drafting hard. We traded our first last year and second this year. And second next year. If this team want to compete better and for a longer time, they should think twice. Especially about wasting this pick for 30+ yo UFA future goalie. This season shows enough how good and deep we are even when our goalies were finally compete enough.
 
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StevenToddIves

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2024 Draft Profile:

RW Beckett Sennecke, Oshawa OHL

In a draft full of wild cards, Sennecke must be considered one of them, having rocketed up draft boards all season long with a very real possibility of now being drafted in the top 10 of the 2024 NHL draft.

Sennecke's skill set is undeniable. He's got terrific size at 6'2-180, skates extremely well and features a high-end offensive skill set. He's a decent skater -- maybe not explosive, per se, but he features an excellent stride and can really push the game pace in open ice. His hands and passing vision are both borderline elite -- this is a kid who can dangle and dazzle. He's also a good shooter -- there really aren't any offensive weaknesses to speak of and the upside is certainly apparent when watching him fill up scoresheets.

Sennecke's mix of exceptional stickhandling, good edges and advanced offensive awareness allows him to create passing and shooting lanes instead of just waiting for them or hoping they'll open. His multi-directional creativity allows him to immediately identify how to create a scoring chance out of nothing. He knows how great his hands are and relies on this trait to manipulate defenders into losing their positioning so he can burst through the lanes. He's a very good offensive player and he's only getting better.

Sennecke has a lot going for him, but he also has a lot to work on. His physicality is non-existent and his play off the puck is a work in progress. As good as his hands and vision are, he can be prone to over-relying on them to the point where he tries to force things, creating some bad turnovers, sometimes regardless of game situation.

None of these are red flags, in the sense that many offensively gifted young forwards are more engaged in producing offense than they are in preventing offensive opportunities for the opposition. Sennecke also needs to work on his core strength -- he was 5'10 just two years ago and the growth spurt has left him a bit gangly and lacking both upper and lower body strength. He needs to hit the weight room, which will add skating power, shot power, and make him less easy to knock off the puck, which is unfortunately not much of an issue for opposing defenders right now.

The upside is certainly there, and this is why Beckett Sennecke must be considered a very good pick in the 12-20 range for the 2024 draft. His mix of skills and size is certainly uncommon and the upside of an NHL, top-6 scoring forward is absolutely realistic. There are many improvements to be made, so it's important to consider that this is not a kid who is one or two years away. But he's also not close to his ultimate ceiling, which is extremely high-end.
 
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ZachaFlockaFlame

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I think for Calgary it's probably already down to Iginla or a defenseman. If they passed Iginla for a F and Iginla turned out to be better -- well that's a job killer for a GM right there. You carry that mistake around forever.


I wrote him up a few days ago, here it is again:

2024 Draft Profile:

C Konsta Helenius, Jukurit LIIGA

The danger of not factoring in intangibles while rating a draft-eligible hockey player cannot be stated better than with the example of the top Finnish player for the 2024 draft, Konsta Helenius. A high hockey IQ and compete level, after all, will play up every single skill on a player's scouting card.

Konsta Helenius' physical skills are good to very good across the board, but there's also nothing standout or elite. He's 5'11-175, which is not small but a bit undersized for the position of center, which he's playing as a teenager in the top Finland men's league. He's a good skater, in terms of fundamentals, efficiency and speed, but he's not going to wow you with this ability. He's a very good passer and shooter and stickhandler but, again, none of them are elite tools.

So, we have to ask ourselves how a player so seemingly unremarkable has put together one of the better seasons we've ever seen from a draft-eligible center in the Finnish Liiga?

It's really simple, actually. Because Konsta Helenius' rare combination of elite IQ and elite compete level are, indeed, remarkable. This is a kid who at 17/18 years old would regularly outthink and outwork 10-year veterans of the Finnish elite league.

"Hockey IQ" scares a lot of people as a term, because in an age of analytic analysis, it's impossible to precisely quantify. But it's an ability with several applications. For example, Helenius' high hockey IQ is deployed far differently in game scenarios than, say, Ivan Demidov's. Where Demidov can accurately be called an offensive genius, most of his incredible brain is focused on getting pucks into high-danger scoring areas, whether on his own stick or a teammate's. Demidov is quite simply a creative genius, able to see ridiculously unconventional paths to scoring opportunities much like Monet would see a painting before he made it or Mozart would hear a symphony before he wrote it.

With Helenius, it's different. While Helenius is certainly creative enough to produce offense in seemingly adverse conditions, his general hockey IQ is less "artistic" -- it's almost like the highest form of practicality. It's like his brain is more purely mathematical, able to process the game situation, the location of his teammates and opposition, and what he needs to do and where to be -- all at unbelievably high speeds.

I wish I had the time to watch every one of this kid's games, because in the 8 or so games I've watched Helenius in I don't think I've seen him make a single poor decision with or without the puck, I don't think I've ever seen him make a half-assed or lazy play, I don't think I've ever seen him make a glaring mental mistake. Also, we need to factor this in with the fact that he's the youngest center in a professional men's league -- and unlike players of this description coming before him (Lundell, Barkov, Kotkaniemi etc), he's also a bit undersized.

We need to stress again that Helenius is not *unskilled*, as some would have you believe. Again, he's very good across the board -- skating, shooting, puck handling, passing, you name it. But he lacks the elite skills of a player who would normally be considered a top 10 pick. However, I'm going to state strongly that Helenius deserves this designation -- he's just too good at hockey and too high-character a kid to fail at any level.

Do I think Konsta Helenius will ever be a 100+ point player? No, I do not. But I do think you cannot go wrong drafting a high-floor kid who is a virtual lock to be one of the better 2/3 centers in the NHL one day. Maybe he'll top out around 70 points, but Helenius will also give whatever team drafts him a constant litany of high-effort and high-intelligence two-way hockey for many, many years to come.

Sounds like a very prototypical Finnish player, good to hear lol. I don't think the Finns have had any stand offensive stars in the draft besides Laine/Rantanen right in the years you've covered drafts on your own?
 

StevenToddIves

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2024 Draft Profile:

RW Michael Brandsegg-Nygard, Mora Allvenskan SWE

It's probably important to note that, as a hockey player, Michael Brandsegg-Nygard is as timeless as it gets. This is to say that in any era, in any style, by any determining factors, he would be an absolutely a terrific hockey player.

At 6'2-200, MBN is not only very strong for his size, but he knows how to use his size. He's also a tremendous skater -- his explosiveness is far superior to most traditional big, power forwards and his top speeds are just outstanding. I'm willing to go out on a limb and say he's the best defensive forward in the draft -- positionally advanced, dogged on pucks, smart enough to immediately identify holes in his own teams defensive structure and fill the gaps like a terrific defensive center, much less a wing.

This has led his coaching to often deploy him as a center, despite being the youngest winger on his team in a Swedish men's league. MBN is so smart, hard-working and versatile that many have surmised he has potential as an NHL center, despite having very little experience at the position. He's an all-situations guy who has the upside of being the rare 1PP/1PK unit combo player at the highest levels.

MBN knows how strong he is, but more importantly he is -- first and foremost -- a high IQ player who knows where and when to use this. While capable of the big hit, he will never leave position to make one. While he stands up for his teammates, he is not the guy to instigate post-whistle fracases. He is extremely effective attending his powerful frame to protect pucks, at using shoulder checks to separate the opposition from pucks, from gaining a wide base in opposing creases to provide screens and tip in pucks and bang in rebounds. He's pretty much as fundamentally sound as you'll ever see an interior forward in his draft-eligible season.

MBN also offers an offensive upside which I strongly feel belies his draft consensus ranking, normally in the #12-#20 range. Foremost we much mention his shot, which is borderline elite. This kid can absolutely rocket the puck. He features a wrist shot which can beat adult Swedish goaltenders clean from outside the circles. If you give him the chance to slap a one-timer or wind up one on the fly -- well, let's just say you might want to duck and cover first.

The only reason I'm not considering MBN for my top 5 is that he's not a high-end puck handler or creative vision guy, though it's also safe to say he's no slouch in either category. This is a player who does not cough up pucks or make ill-advised turnover passes, and he is very effective at using his body positioning where a player with elite hands would just be able to beat the opposition clean. Though MBN might not dazzle you like many top 10 picks, he's going to open room on an NHL top line someday for the guys that do dazzle you. He's the ultimate complimentary winger for high-end talent -- able to cover for them defensively, create net-front traffic, dig out pucks from the dirty areas and create open lanes to the high-danger scoring areas.

Ultimately, while MBN lacks a couple of strengths, he has no weaknesses. His combination of IQ/compete level, shooting and 200-foot play leads me to believe his ultimate ceiling is pretty much a much faster Mark Stone. To me, this certainly worthy of a top 10 pick, and I cannot understand why everyone does not rank him there. Personally, Brandsegg-Nygard is a special player who can fill a much-needed role for any NHL team, and he's the best draft-eligible Norwegian player I have ever seen by a wide margin.
 

MartyOwns

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Carolina and Dallas were and are in specific state of their teams. Still both teams are drafting hard. We traded our first last year and second this year. And second next year. If this team want to compete better and for a longer time, they should think twice. Especially about wasting this pick for 30+ yo UFA future goalie. This season shows enough how good and deep we are even when our goalies were finally compete enough.
the two teams you picked are in no way comparable to us. the hurricanes, by the way, have picked once in the first round (30th overall) over the last 3 years. my point is we need immediate help more than we need anyone i can tell will be available at 10.

i'm not going to be heartbroken if fitz decides to make the pick, i like shiny new toys more than anyone. i'm just saying that if we hire a competent coach for once and get an above average goalie, that's 2 major holes that have been plugged, and in a year from now we could be going into the second round instead of waiting for a relatively minor payoff.

that's my preference; feel free to disagree, i don't care. i'll let you all get back to prospect talk.
 
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My3Sons

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I think in general "high floor" players are underrated on draft day. Is Konsta Helenius ever going to be a 100-point scoring 1C in the NHL? I would have to highly highly doubt this possibility, of course. But it's pretty impossible not to love the kid watching him play, and anyone who looks at a kid with a very-good-across-the-board skill set and elite IQ/compete like him has to realize the chances of him NOT making the NHL are infinitesimal.

The Devils sorely need centers in the system, Helenius is a surefire NHL player and possibly a very good one. He's also a versatile guy you can plug in as a wing in your top 6 or as the 3C behind your two star centers in Hughes and Hischier. He might not be a *sexy* pick but he would certainly be a *good* pick.

As for Brantsegg-Nygard, I think his upside is being sorely underrated. He's huge and knows how to use his size, he's a terrific skater, he has a bomb of a shot, he's the best defensive winger in the entire 2024 class, and he has an elite combination of hockey IQ/compete level. What is there about this description that leads anyone to believe he can't be a top-6, goal-scoring, two-way power forward? I think that's a really nice get in the #10-#15 range on draft day. Sure he's not going to dazzle you like a Catton, but he offers more versatility, physicality and speed. He's a heck of a hockey player.

Buium is the highest hockey IQ D for the 2024 class, and it's not close. He's got high-scoring potential and also plays very good defensively. I think we all would be thrilled if the Devils got him at #10, but again 9 teams would have to pass on him first, which is not extremely likely.
Any one of those three sound wonderful but I think looking at the team right now, if they are all in a tier together I'd go for B-Nygard and hope that you and @Guadana are correct and he can make the switch to center. Worst case scenario he's Jack's winger for years to come.
 

StevenToddIves

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Any one of those three sound wonderful but I think looking at the team right now, if they are all in a tier together I'd go for B-Nygard and hope that you and @Guadana are correct and he can make the switch to center. Worst case scenario he's Jack's winger for years to come.
Even if MBN doesn't start a shift at center, he's the rare winger who is do good defensively that he can cover defensive responsibilities so effectively that he's almost center-like in the D-zone. I mean, obviously I'm a big fan but I don't see how he's not in everyone's top 15, at least. He's a terrific player with an outstanding understanding of the game.

Duh, I went to that draft in NJ. Maybe the long day of seeing rounds 1-7 cooked my brain about Barkov :laugh:
Yeah, I was there too. Fun day..

the two teams you picked are in no way comparable to us. the hurricanes, by the way, have picked once in the first round (30th overall) over the last 3 years. my point is we need immediate help more than we need anyone i can tell will be available at 10.

i'm not going to be heartbroken if fitz decides to make the pick, i like shiny new toys more than anyone. i'm just saying that if we hire a competent coach for once and get an above average goalie, that's 2 major holes that have been plugged, and in a year from now we could be going into the second round instead of waiting for a relatively minor payoff.

that's my preference; feel free to disagree, i don't care. i'll let you all get back to prospect talk.
Again, we can refer to the main pages for my "please hire Berube" comments, haha.
 

Guadana

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the two teams you picked are in no way comparable to us. the hurricanes, by the way, have picked once in the first round (30th overall) over the last 3 years. my point is we need immediate help more than we need anyone i can tell will be available at 10.

i'm not going to be heartbroken if fitz decides to make the pick, i like shiny new toys more than anyone. i'm just saying that if we hire a competent coach for once and get an above average goalie, that's 2 major holes that have been plugged, and in a year from now we could be going into the second round instead of waiting for a relatively minor payoff.

that's my preference; feel free to disagree, i don't care. i'll let you all get back to prospect talk.
There aer enough of what we need on the market. Every assets you are talking about are costing less than 10 OA. Most of top 10 pick trades were lost by team that traded top-10 pick.

Its a bad managment. thats it.

top line to pair potential prospect is an advantage. Need goalie or other player - go and find on the free market or in the trade for less than freaking 10 OA pick. Ottawa traded Debrinkat and Chycrun, doesnt look good. Trading 10OA for Saros or for Ulmark when they are 30+ yo future UFA goalies is a crazy move. If Fitz will trade this pick he should be fired because its a panic move management. If you are not agree you can talk about it on other threads. This is the thread about draft, not about trades. So please, lets end here, I understand your position and vision - new coach, compete now, hope you are understanding mine.
 
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Goptor

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Perfectly fine with results given the Devils won their lottery earlier in the day.

Difference between Celebrini and pick #10 is probably not as big as the difference between Green for 4 years and whichever coach they end up getting.
 

evnted

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