Prospect Info: 2024 NHL Draft Thread

[Xirik]

It was pretty typical stuff. Looking for the player with the highest ceiling. Looking for well rounded players that can play inside and are hard to play against. Want guys who can win battles on the wall, in the corners, and win net front battles.

even though it's basic that does sound like Nygard or Helenius to me.

 

[Nubmer6]

Defense and forechecking is nice in a wing, but are those really the skills to draft for in the top 10? Is that not something that can be found later?

I presume you're talking about MBN.l, in which case is have to add skating, shooting, hockey IQ, work ethic, and ability to get to the dirty areas (at least from what I've read).

 

[Guadana]

He doesn’t seem anything like Holtz though, who was more of a one trick pony. He appears far more offensively talented than MBN, and while I love how he looks as a prospect and his fit, that could just as easily be a massive whiff. Classic drafting for perceived need. Defense and forechecking is nice in a wing, but are those really the skills to draft for in the top 10? Is that not something that can be found later?

He isn’t more talented offensively than MBN.

MBN is deserving to be drafted in top 10 for skill but I’m lazy to repeat myself what kind of skill he has. If you didn’t read it and didn’t watch it - you can or you can not do it. If you did than I will not say nothing new. And no, you will not find Nygard skill set later.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

He doesn’t seem anything like Holtz though, who was more of a one trick pony. He appears far more offensively talented than MBN, and while I love how he looks as a prospect and his fit, that could just as easily be a massive whiff. Classic drafting for perceived need. Defense and forechecking is nice in a wing, but are those really the skills to draft for in the top 10? Is that not something that can be found later?

I’m not as high on MBN for the reasons you mentioned. Not sure he’s quite as talented or has as high-end potential as some think. But again I also don’t think Sennecke is all that offensively talented. Neither has a ton of high-end offensive skill but I would take MBN over Sennecke because of the other attributes.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

He isn’t more talented offensively than MBN.

MBN is deserving to be drafted in top 10 for skill but I’m lazy to repeat myself what kind of skill he has. If you didn’t read it and didn’t watch it - you can or you can not do it. If you did than I will not say nothing new. And no, you will not find Nygard skill set later.

Given that MBN is stronger in every other area, it seems fair to say that there is virtual consensus around the league that Sennecke’s offensive potential is held in higher regard given that he will be picked before him. At least according to the odds and nearly every mock. Why else would he be?

 

[Guadana]

Dont wanna hijack anything, but man I hate the "weak draft" "strong draft" narratives and how people will cling to them to discredit/pump up the value of draft picks for whatever fits their agenda. I know its a bit early but the strong 2019 class is definitely lacking behind the weak 2017 class.

2024 is weak draft because forwards from ushl and chl(questionable) isn’t as strong. Who cares that defensive pool is huge and European generation is very good.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1804165389800059279

Devil?

 

[Guadana]

Given that MBN is stronger in every other area, it seems fair to say that there is virtual consensus around the league that Sennecke’s offensive potential is held in higher regard given that he will be picked before him. At least according to the odds and nearly every mock. Why else would he be?

MBN better skater, faster skater, better shooter, better positional player, better in finding open spaces, much faster with decision making with passes. (Besides defensive game, forecheck, physical game)

But yeah, Sennecke is better puck handler. Great.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

MBN better skater, faster skater, better shooter, better positional player, better in finding open spaces, much faster with decision making with passes. (Besides defensive game, forecheck, physical game)

But yeah, Sennecke is better puck handler. Great.

I’m an MBN stan so I need no convincing. But he won’t be the pick.

At the end of the day if you’re 6-3 (and maybe still growing) and are a truly dynamic puck handler and offensive talent…that can be game breaking. You can be a jack of all trades and still not impact the game as much as a player like that. You may not think that he is, but there appears to be scouts that do believe it.

 

[Guadana]

I’m an MBN stan so I need no convincing. But he won’t be the pick.

At the end of the day if you’re 6-3 (and maybe still growing) and are a truly dynamic puck handler and offensive talent…that can be game breaking. You can be a jack of all trades and still not impact the game as much as a player like that. You may not think that he is, but there appears to be scouts that do believe it.

Or can be not game breaking. Puckhandling is good skill but Nygard has little more plus all of arguments except puckhandling. Puckhandling will not make Sennecke gamebreaking talent.

Sennecke can be a very smooth puckhandler and still not impact the game as much as player who can win all puck battles, retrieve the puck, take the puck away, find open spaces on the ice, shoot the puck better than mostly anyone on the draft and close all the chances for escaping transitions.
You may not think that he is, but there appears to be me, couple of scouts and some other guys from nj hfboards that do believe it. And it looks like me and some other guys were right couple of times before.

 

[Forge]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1804165389800059279

Devil?

Watching Jack Hughes?

Shit, does this dude have wide turns too?

 

[Captain3rdLine]

Ya I’m not exactly sure Jack Hughes is a player I’d want a prospect watching or trying to model after

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

Or can be not game breaking. Puckhandling is good skill but Nygard has little more plus all of arguments except puckhandling. Puckhandling will not make Sennecke gamebreaking talent.

Sennecke can be a very smooth puckhandler and still not impact the game as much as player who can win all puck battles, retrieve the puck, take the puck away, find open spaces on the ice, shoot the puck better than mostly anyone on the draft and close all the chances for escaping transitions.
You may not think that he is, but there appears to be me, couple of scouts and some other guys from nj hfboards that do believe it. And it looks like me and some other guys were right couple of times before.

I don’t have an informed opinion — I haven’t watched any of these players outside of some international tournament games and some highlights.

But there are scouts, probably the vast majority at this stage, that see Sennecke as a top 10 pick. You may not agree, that’s fine.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

But there are scouts, probably the vast majority at this stage, that see Sennecke as a top 10 pick.

This is blatantly untrue. In general his rankings are still outside of the top 10. Some have moved him up and there’s been some talk of teams in the top 10 being interested and that he could go there. No where remotely near the vast majority of scouts having him in the top 10. You pulled that out of nowhere

 

[Guadana]

I don’t have an informed opinion — I haven’t watched any of these players outside of some international tournament games and some highlights.

But there are scouts, probably the vast majority at this stage, that see Sennecke as a top 10 pick. You may not agree, that’s fine.

Yeah, there are scouts who see Sennecke as a top 10 pick. Doesnt mean he is a good top-10 pick. He will not be the first, he will not be the last.

About vast majority - you dont know. Neither exactly, nor not exactly, nor about that, nor possible, nor likely, nor probably.
But of course some do. As some writers, as some scouts who has Sennecke in top-10. One scout said that Demidov shown nothing in a bad league where Sennecke made huge things in CHL. Good company.

 

[forceten]

Watching Jack Hughes?

Shit, does this dude have wide turns too?

He's a disgrace

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

This is blatantly untrue. In general his rankings are still outside of the top 10. Some have moved him up and there’s been some talk of teams in the top 10 being interested and that he could go there. No where remotely near the vast majority of scouts having him in the top 10. You pulled that out of nowhere

Enough of the annoyingly aggressive bullshit. Just don’t even respond if you’re not capable of that.

Anyway, the Vegas odds are moving in the direction of him being a top 10 pick with some others going the other way. Almost across the board, the newer the mock, the higher he’s going. Again, let’s continue this talk when Bob’s list is out.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

Enough of the annoyingly aggressive bullshit. Just don’t even respond if you’re not capable of that.

Anyway, the Vegas odds are moving in the direction of him being a top 10 pick with some others going the other way. Almost across the board, the newer the mock, the higher he’s going. Again, let’s continue this talk when Bob’s list is out.

Nothing aggressive about it. Sorry you don’t like it. I just said it’s blatantly untrue. If the Vegas odds are just moving in that direction now how does that remotely say the vast majority of scouts have him in the top 10? That doesn’t match up.

 

[Guttersniped]

I'm agreeing to your point, and decided to add to it in the hopes that other people can understand what both you and I have said on these threads at great length:

In 2020, I had Seth Jarvis over Perfetti, Quinn and Holtz despite the fact his consensus ranking was 4th of the players, generally. My reasoning was simple -- I felt the skill sets of the 4 players all had particular strengths, but Jarvis was the best of the 4 in the 3 skills I consider the most crucial of all -- skating, hockey IQ and compete level.

Using this same algorithm, it's easy for me to explain why I have players like Nygard, Chernyshov and John Mustard ranked far higher than the consensus.

This trio of skills -- when they are all high end -- give a player a high floor almost single-handedly. A player average across the board in every other ability is still extremely likely to catch on as a bottom 6 NHLer.

With Nygard, we then have to factor in the fact that he has a near-elite shot, the versatility to play center, an extremely physical play style, and he's the best defensive winger in the entire 2024 class.

We also have to figure in that his "get the puck to the net" mentality and "use my immense strength to crash the crease" proclivity is going to get both pucks and himself into high-danger areas which remain high-danger areas in the pros. This is in abject antithesis to the perimeter spaces which many amateur high-scorers thrive in during amateur hockey -- because at NHL levels it becomes far, far more difficult to skate around the perimeter creating 5-on-5 unless you are at the elite level of a Patrick Kane or Nikita Kucherov or Connor McDavid. Every draft has 1st round, high-offense perimeter danglers who fail in the pros because they cannot adjust to this -- from Alex Nylander and Borgstrom in 2016 to Andersson in 2017 to Denisenko in 2018 and so on.

This is not to say Perfetti, Quinn and Holtz will fail in the NHL -- they all remain bright young players with a lot of potential. But clearly, their adjustment to the pros proved far more difficult than Jarvis, who was just smarter and grittier and quicker.

Players who prefer the perimeter like Catton, Eiserman and Sennecke certainly possess the ability to translate to the NHL. But it will be a lot more adjustment and work for them than it will be for, say, a Lindstrom, Nygard or Helenius -- all of whom can essentially continue the same game-type they employ now into a straight path towards the pros, much like a Seth Jarvis.

Ultimately, a forward's "projectability" is not simply limited to his skill set. Alex Nylander did not *lose* his high end passing and puck handling skills, nor did Denisenko. They just never adjusted to the fact that defenses did not bite on all the fancy moves and guys they grew accustomed to blowing past now being able to skate with them. Borgstrom did not *lose* his great shot, he just lost the time to get it off and never found the gumption to crash creases. Seth Jarvis had no such concerns, nor will Michael Brandsegg-Nygard.

“This is not to say Perfetti, Quinn and Holtz will fail in the NHL -- they all remain bright young players with a lot of potential. But clearly, their adjustment to the pros proved far more difficult than Jarvis, who was just smarter and grittier and quicker.”

I will say as someone who wanted Jarvis and was Jack Quinn-neutral before the draft, that Quinn has already adjusted just fine to the NHL.

If it wasn’t for his two surgeries (!) last season, he would have had a big season. I think Quinn might end up the better NHL player.

So the Quinn fans here weren’t wrong.

 

[Guadana]

“This is not to say Perfetti, Quinn and Holtz will fail in the NHL -- they all remain bright young players with a lot of potential. But clearly, their adjustment to the pros proved far more difficult than Jarvis, who was just smarter and grittier and quicker.”

I will say as someone who wanted Jarvis and was Jack Quinn-neutral before the draft, that Quinn has already adjusted just fine to the NHL.

If it wasn’t for his two surgeries (!) last season, he would have had a big season. I think Quinn might end up the better NHL player.

So the Quinn fans here weren’t wrong.

I was Quinn fan. From everything we had to draft in the moment I had 1 Quinn 2 Mercer 3 Jarvis for our 7th pick. I wanted 1 Sanderson and 2 Raymond before them but both were not available.

 

[Alex NJD]

Ya just a quick reminder that there is no consensus among scouts/execs for this draft. There is a good post in this thread a few weeks ago with a bunch of scout and exec quotes. Additionally, mentioned this a few days ago but the Blackbook guy posted on the main boards and mentioned most of the public scouting lists just feed off of each other and generally all tend to look the same while actual scouts are generally much more varied.

Public lists had Mo Seider as a non top 10 pick but obviously Detroit (and likely other teams as well) thought he was deserving of a high pick. On the other hand many public lists had Tyler Boucher as far back as a mid 2nd yet Ottawa thought he was worthy of 10th overall and made one of the worst top 10 picks in recent memory (probably passes Andersson and Juolevi) Ottawa management was such a mess I wouldn't be surprised if that was management overruling their scouts tho.

 

[StevenToddIves]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1804156720526299217

Were most of your viewings in the beginning or end of the year? Because from the sounds of things something clicked in the back half of the season and he turned it on. His potential seems enormous given the growth spurt and the way he picked it up.

Sennecke was absolutely a player who improved a lot as the year wore on. And he's absolutely dynamic with the puck. And he's absolutely a worthy 1st round pick.

But I unfortunately must stick to my point that I do not consider him on the level with a Demidov, Nygard, Iginla, Chernyshov or Catton as the top wings in this draft. Though we could argue Sennecke as the 2nd best puckhandler of the group (after of course Demidov) and the 3rd best passer (after Demidov and Catton), he'd be an easy #5 or #6 rank in literally every other hockey ability and intangible.

My point is not that Sennecke is not a very good prospect, nor is it that he does not contain top-6, high-scoring NHL upside. Sennecke is absolutely this type of enticing prospect, and as such he deserves to be taken in the 1st round. My point is simply that, even with his massive improvements and strong finish to the season, he's still not up to the level of my "top-tier" wingers for the 2024 draft.

When people talk about "upside", I'm not even sure what they mean. Iginla and Nygard do not have as much playmaking upside as Sennecke perhaps, but they both have 40+ goal upside and better 200-foot games. Sennecke is more of the same "player-type" as Demidov and Catton, but I really don't see how anyone could possibly consider him superior to Catton in anything right now except the 6'3 vs. 5'10. And Demidov? Well, it's not even fair to Sennecke to make that comparison. I have no idea how Pronman ranked Sennecke higher than Demidov, there's just not a single argument to sustain it.

So again, Sennecke is a very, very good hockey prospect. But he's just not a top 10 prospect in 2024. If he were a lights-out skater, I'd say sure. If he were a guy who used his size more and was able to transition stylistically from the exterior to interior, I'd also say sure. But I also think if he were the same player and 5'10 instead of 6'3, or if he were the same player and Norwegian or Russian instead of Canadian, he would be most commonly ranked outside the top 15, which is where I have him.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

Ya just a quick reminder that there is no consensus among scouts/execs for any draft. There is a good post in this thread a few weeks ago with a bunch of scout and exec quotes. Additionally, mentioned this a few days ago but the Blackbook guy posted on the main boards and mentioned most of the public scouting lists just feed off of each other and generally all tend to look the same while actual scouts are generally much more varied.

Public lists had Mo Seider as a non top 10 pick but obviously Detroit (and likely other teams as well) thought he was deserving of a high pick. On the other hand many public lists had Tyler Boucher as far back as a mid 2nd yet Ottawa thought he was worthy of 10th overall and made one of the worst top 10 picks in recent memory (probably passes Andersson and Juolevi) Ottawa management was such a mess I wouldn't be surprised if that was management overruling their scouts tho.

Changed the bolded. But good post

 

[Alex NJD]

Sennecke was absolutely a player who improved a lot as the year wore on. And he's absolutely dynamic with the puck. And he's absolutely a worthy 1st round pick.

But I unfortunately must stick to my point that I do not consider him on the level with a Demidov, Nygard, Iginla, Chernyshov or Catton as the top wings in this draft. Though we could argue Sennecke as the 2nd best puckhandler of the group (after of course Demidov) and the 3rd best passer (after Demidov and Catton), he'd be an easy #5 or #6 rank in literally every other hockey ability and intangible.

My point is not that Sennecke is not a very good prospect, nor is it that he does not contain top-6, high-scoring NHL upside. Sennecke is absolutely this type of enticing prospect, and as such he deserves to be taken in the 1st round. My point is simply that, even with his massive improvements and strong finish to the season, he's still not up to the level of my "top-tier" wingers for the 2024 draft.

When people talk about "upside", I'm not even sure what they mean. Iginla and Nygard do not have as much playmaking upside as Sennecke perhaps, but they both have 40+ goal upside and better 200-foot games. Sennecke is more of the same "player-type" as Demidov and Catton, but I really don't see how anyone could possibly consider him superior to Catton in anything right now except the 6'3 vs. 5'10. And Demidov? Well, it's not even fair to Sennecke to make that comparison. I have no idea how Pronman ranked Sennecke higher than Demidov, there's just not a single argument to sustain it.

So again, Sennecke is a very, very good hockey prospect. But he's just not a top 10 prospect in 2024. If he were a lights-out skater, I'd say sure. If he were a guy who used his size more and was able to transition stylistically from the exterior to interior, I'd also say sure. But I also think if he were the same player and 5'10 instead of 6'3, or if he were the same player and Norwegian or Russian instead of Canadian, he would be most commonly ranked outside the top 15, which is where I have him.

I haven't really seen this discussed bc every report just says he had a big growth spurt and is now 6'3 but what are the odds he learns to actually use that size? He likely needs ~1-2 years to put on the proper weight alone. From an NJ perspective we've had the recent conversations about Bahl having size but not using it enough

 

[StevenToddIves]

He doesn’t seem anything like Holtz though, who was more of a one trick pony. He appears far more offensively talented than MBN, and while I love how he looks as a prospect and his fit, that could just as easily be a massive whiff. Classic drafting for perceived need. Defense and forechecking is nice in a wing, but are those really the skills to draft for in the top 10? Is that not something that can be found later?

If both players hit a reasonable peak, Nygard will score more goals than Sennecke and Sennecke will amass more assists. If both players hit their absolute peak, we're probably talking something like slightly-less-violent Brady Tkachuk vs. not-as-fast Clayton Keller.

The idea that Nygard lacks upside is downright silly. Compared to Demidov? Yes, Nygard lacks upside. Compared to Sennecke? I would argue Nygard's upside as higher. It's a matter of comparison ultimately, because all of the players mentioned in anyone's top 20 have "upside". It's just a matter of what type of upside for what type of players they project as.

Eiserman's *pure upside* we can argue as significantly higher than Nygard or Sennecke, he just has a country mile to go to even start scratching the surface.

So why isn't Eiserman a universal choice for the Devils at #10? Because if that kid figures it out, he can be a perennial 50+ goal scorer. His stats this year blew away the field in the #5-#20 range.

My question -- not to you in particular but to everyone in the draft community -- would be: what is upside and how heavily should we weigh it? Because there are a lot of factors which contribute to how good a player can become, but in terms of pure goalscoring upside we could argue Eiserman should go #1 overall in this draft ahead of Celebrini. I mean, we obviously won't, but we could. But I can say this -- if we were factoring in this elusive "upside", Sennecke would not even be in the conversation with Eiserman. It's absolutely not close.

Personally, I have the two players ranked about the same, because I like Sennecke's chances of reaching his upside a bit more than Eiserman, but obviously Eiserman's upside is far greater. But the reason you take Sennecke over Eiserman is that he has the higher floor.