Prospect Info: 2024 NHL Draft Thread

[TBF1972]

I'm a pretty hard 69%

suck it up

 

[My3Sons]

I'm still in the camp I'd be amazed if we made the pick but I've fell in love with Catton

Did you break the news to your significant other yet?

 

[TBF1972]

Did you break the news to your significant other yet?

don't ask questions
help him by being proactive and
put it out there on social media

 

[Zacha37]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1804129662727045431

Some insight included within this article by Novo

 

[Guadana]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1804129662727045431

Some insight included within this article by Novo

Does anyone can tell about what he is saying in this article?

I'm agreeing to your point, and decided to add to it in the hopes that other people can understand what both you and I have said on these threads at great length:

In 2020, I had Seth Jarvis over Perfetti, Quinn and Holtz despite the fact his consensus ranking was 4th of the players, generally. My reasoning was simple -- I felt the skill sets of the 4 players all had particular strengths, but Jarvis was the best of the 4 in the 3 skills I consider the most crucial of all -- skating, hockey IQ and compete level.

Using this same algorithm, it's easy for me to explain why I have players like Nygard, Chernyshov and John Mustard ranked far higher than the consensus.

This trio of skills -- when they are all high end -- give a player a high floor almost single-handedly. A player average across the board in every other ability is still extremely likely to catch on as a bottom 6 NHLer.

With Nygard, we then have to factor in the fact that he has a near-elite shot, the versatility to play center, an extremely physical play style, and he's the best defensive winger in the entire 2024 class.

We also have to figure in that his "get the puck to the net" mentality and "use my immense strength to crash the crease" proclivity is going to get both pucks and himself into high-danger areas which remain high-danger areas in the pros. This is in abject antithesis to the perimeter spaces which many amateur high-scorers thrive in during amateur hockey -- because at NHL levels it becomes far, far more difficult to skate around the perimeter creating 5-on-5 unless you are at the elite level of a Patrick Kane or Nikita Kucherov or Connor McDavid. Every draft has 1st round, high-offense perimeter danglers who fail in the pros because they cannot adjust to this -- from Alex Nylander and Borgstrom in 2016 to Andersson in 2017 to Denisenko in 2018 and so on.

This is not to say Perfetti, Quinn and Holtz will fail in the NHL -- they all remain bright young players with a lot of potential. But clearly, their adjustment to the pros proved far more difficult than Jarvis, who was just smarter and grittier and quicker.

Players who prefer the perimeter like Catton, Eiserman and Sennecke certainly possess the ability to translate to the NHL. But it will be a lot more adjustment and work for them than it will be for, say, a Lindstrom, Nygard or Helenius -- all of whom can essentially continue the same game-type they employ now into a straight path towards the pros, much like a Seth Jarvis.

Ultimately, a forward's "projectability" is not simply limited to his skill set. Alex Nylander did not *lose* his high end passing and puck handling skills, nor did Denisenko. They just never adjusted to the fact that defenses did not bite on all the fancy moves and guys they grew accustomed to blowing past now being able to skate with them. Borgstrom did not *lose* his great shot, he just lost the time to get it off and never found the gumption to crash creases. Seth Jarvis had no such concerns, nor will Michael Brandsegg-Nygard.

Jarvis is a lot about winning puck battles, retrieve the puck, be positive in cycling, be fast and active.

So yeah, even if junior stuff is fun, modern NHL is a lot about cycling, battles in tranches, and when player can win puck battle, can take right position in different situation AND in the same time have skill and speed to include offensive impact - he will be very productive and impactful on the ice.

So yeah, Im very high on guys like Nygard.

 

[Normal Devil]

Does anyone can tell about what he is saying in this article?

It was pretty typical stuff. Looking for the player with the highest ceiling. Looking for well rounded players that can play inside and are hard to play against. Want guys who can win battles on the wall, in the corners, and win net front battles.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

I personally have Sennecke just outside my top 20. To me, he's a good offensive wing prospect with elite puck-skills and excellent passing vision and a pretty good shot -- a combination which makes him worth a pick int he 1st round. However, he's not a particularly impressive skater, his IQ dips severely off the puck, and his compete level and defensive game are both closer to concerns than strengths. People love the fact he's 6'3, but I only consider size an attribute if the player actually uses that size proactively. For Sennecke, it's only a strength in the sense that he uses his length to further enhance his extraordinary puck control.

Sennecke is a good prospect and as such I am uncomfortable arguing against him. However, in my many viewings, he's not even in the same tier as the forwards who should be considered at #10 overall. He's dynamic with the puck in space, and the very definition of "space" for him is smaller than with most prospects because of his gifted talents in manipulating the puck. But every other facet of his game is a work in progress, to say the least. As such, he's very far away from the NHL and no absolute guarantee to make it. And that's just not something I could seriously consider in the top 15 of this draft, much less the top 10.

https://x.com/i/web/status/1804156720526299217

Were most of your viewings in the beginning or end of the year? Because from the sounds of things something clicked in the back half of the season and he turned it on. His potential seems enormous given the growth spurt and the way he picked it up.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1804156720526299217

Were most of your viewings in the beginning or end of the year? Because from the sounds of things something clicked in the back half of the season and he turned it on. His potential seems enormous given the growth spurt and the way he picked it up.

Him picking it up is nice and certainly helps his stock but still shouldn’t get him near the top 10 IMO. He’s an elusive and smart offensive player who does not possess high-end skill. Some of his offense is not overly translatable. Even in that highlight clip, a lot of it is just him putting the puck through defenders triangles and moves like that which won’t work nearly as well as the NHL level on their own.

His skating is below average at the NHL level, his hands are overrated because of the moves you see him pulling off(most of those moves have more to do with his mind than his hands), and his shot is decent. Personally wouldn’t touch him near the top 10.

Again, smart offensive player, who’s pretty deceptive and elusive. Has potential to be a top 6 player especially if he fills in his frame well and get a faster and stronger. But lacks the high-end skills, physical tools, and potential to be a top 10 pick.

 

[minibrodeur]

Last year we only had 5 picks, but it was the first year Fitz didn't draft a goalie. With 6 picks this year atm, do you guys think we draft a goalie? Maybe 5th round?

 

[Brooklyndevil]

I’m in the Nygard camp even if he’s rated in the 15th, rage.

 

[Nubmer6]

Last year we only had 5 picks, but it was the first year Fitz didn't draft a goalie. With 6 picks this year atm, do you guys think we draft a goalie? Maybe 5th round?

The pickings at G seem pretty bleak this year, plus we seem to have a million prospects in the goalie pipeline.

I love the idea of drafting one each year, but maybe we're better off skipping it again this year.

 

[evnted]

Last year we only had 5 picks, but it was the first year Fitz didn't draft a goalie. With 6 picks this year atm, do you guys think we draft a goalie? Maybe 5th round?

there are some good/older options in russia that are worth looking at and could potentially offer accelerated timelines. the class as a whole isnt particularly great (which i imagine could cause a run on them at some point), but there will still be targets i advocate for (and @Guadana lol)

i will drop a quick goalie primer in here, hopefully by the end of the weekend. working on another little thing for later today/tomorrow first lol

 

[Its Always Sundstrom]

The pickings at G seem pretty bleak this year, plus we seem to have a million prospects in the goalie pipeline.

I love the idea of drafting one each year, but maybe we're better off skipping it again this year.

Or if one of the over-agers is available like Nabokov later on, take a flier? They need to keep spaghetti-ing this PITA position until something sticks.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

Him picking it up is nice and certainly helps his stock but still shouldn’t get him near the top 10 IMO. He’s an elusive and smart offensive player who does not possess high-end skill. Some of his offense is not overly translatable. Even in that highlight clip, a lot of it is just him putting the puck through defenders triangles and moves like that which won’t work nearly as well as the NHL level on their own.

His skating is below average at the NHL level, his hands are overrated because of the moves you see him pulling off(most of those moves have more to do with his mind than his hands), and his shot is decent. Personally wouldn’t touch him near the top 10.

Again, smart offensive player, who’s pretty deceptive and elusive. Has potential to be a top 6 player especially if he fills in his frame well and get a faster and stronger. But lacks the high-end skills, physical tools, and potential to be a top 10 pick.

The league doesn’t appear to agree with your assessment. Betting markets already see him as top 10 and he’ll probably be a lock once Bob’s list comes out.

 

[Brodeur]

Last year we only had 5 picks, but it was the first year Fitz didn't draft a goalie. With 6 picks this year atm, do you guys think we draft a goalie? Maybe 5th round?

Just depends if they like anybody. I'm reminded of the Kings in 2012, they liked Connor Hellebuyck and thought they could get him at #151. But then Winnipeg grabbed him #130. LA pivoted and took Colin Miller at #151 and didn't take a goalie with their remaining three picks.

I don't think teams are necessarily locked into a certain position with the late picks. Like if we miss on a goalie that we'd just take the next one on the list.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

The league doesn’t appear to agree with your assessment. Betting markets already see him as top 10 and he’ll probably be a lock once Bob’s list comes out.

I can’t imagine he’ll be a top 10 lock given there’s probably only a few guys that truly are top 10 locks and I know a lot of the league seems to disagree with me. That doesn’t mean they’re right. Remains to be seen but as I said I personally wouldn’t touch him near the top 10.

 

[Nubmer6]

I can’t imagine he’ll be a top 10 lock and I know a lot the league seems to disagree with me. That doesn’t mean they’re right. Remains to be seen but as I said I personally wouldn’t touch him near the top 10.

Considering every single one of our draft gurus prospect evaluation slaves say the same thing, I tend to agree, but some connected draft writers seem to think some teams are really high on him and think he'll be gone in the top 10.

I personally hope this is true as that will leave more decent options for us to pick at 10, or if we do a trade-down a couple spots.

 

[Guadana]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1804156720526299217

Were most of your viewings in the beginning or end of the year? Because from the sounds of things something clicked in the back half of the season and he turned it on. His potential seems enormous given the growth spurt and the way he picked it up.

He isn’t good pick for the Devils. There will be better more important players. HighLights is a good thing but there were better players with good finals of the season.

there are some good/older options in russia that are worth looking at and could potentially offer accelerated timelines. the class as a whole isnt particularly great (which i imagine could cause a run on them at some point), but there will still be targets i advocate for (and @Guadana lol)

i will drop a quick goalie primer in here, hopefully by the end of the weekend. working on another little thing for later today/tomorrow first lol

Nabokov if he will be available or Moiseevich.

 

[Guadana]

The league doesn’t appear to agree with your assessment. Betting markets already see him as top 10 and he’ll probably be a lock once Bob’s list comes out.

He isn’t top ten lock and never will be. May be couple of teams have him on their list in top 10.

Only Celebrini, Demidov, Levshunov and Lindstrom could be named as top 10 lock. May be Buium and Dickinson. And it is still have some doubts.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

He isn’t good pick for the Devils. There will be better more important players. HighLights is a good thing but there were better players with good finals of the season.


Nabokov if he will be available or Moiseevich.

We’ll see. But as of right now, he is far more likely to be the pick than MBN, Helenius, Solberg, etc.

 

[Guadana]

Considering every single one of our draft gurus prospect evaluation slaves say the same thing, I tend to agree, but some connected draft writers seem to think some teams are really high on him and think he'll be gone in the top 10.

I personally hope this is true as that will leave more decent options for us to pick at 10, or if we do a trade-down a couple spots.

May be couple of teams could have him very high but imagine top 4 team will make surprise or near surprise pick like Silayev. Other team will draft Lindstrom for example even if they had Sennecke high, and other team would draft other defenseman or Iginla because they thought they would not be available. So there is a huge chance 5 teams could have some player top five on their list and still will not draft this some player because every team has different number three or number four.

I think Sennecke is interesting for some teams like Montreal or even Devils. But this teams have huge chance for drafting more interesting player for them.

 

[Guadana]

We’ll see. But as of right now, he is far more likely to be the pick than MBN, Helenius, Solberg, etc.

Doesn’t mean he will be better pick. We already saw it with Holtz or with Stillman.

Overall Fitz wasn’t great forward drafter for today. For four years besides obvious Mercers pick (who was absolutely best player from consensus point of view) he made only one good pick in second round with Hameenaho and one good pick in seventh round with Bardakov, who was already traded for nothing and still not NHLer - not bad for 7th round, very bad if we are talking about overall picture.

So may be it’s better to draft defenseman. There will be good ones. Than players like Sennecke. Even if writers like his Ritchie finale.

 

[evnted]

We’ll see. But as of right now, he is far more likely to be the pick than MBN, Helenius, Solberg, etc.

i actually agree, i expect sennecke will go before most of the options we like on the board. that said, i do still prefer the latter group, both in general and for us specifically. easier projections, and clearer games/tools to bet on without really compromising much upside. dont mind teams looking at sennecke as a big what-if swing, i just wouldnt personally go too early on him (even as a fan)

 

[Alex NJD]

Dont wanna hijack anything, but man I hate the "weak draft" "strong draft" narratives and how people will cling to them to discredit/pump up the value of draft picks for whatever fits their agenda. I know its a bit early but the strong 2019 class is definitely lacking behind the weak 2017 class.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

Doesn’t mean he will be better pick. We already saw it with Holtz or with Stillman.

Overall Fitz wasn’t great forward drafter for today. For four years besides obvious Mercers pick (who was absolutely best player from consensus point of view) he made only one good pick in second round with Hameenaho and one good pick in seventh round with Bardakov, who was already traded for nothing and still not NHLer - not bad for 7th round, very bad if we are talking about overall picture.

So may be it’s better to draft defenseman. There will be good ones. Than players like Sennecke. Even if writers like his Ritchie finale.

He doesn’t seem anything like Holtz though, who was more of a one trick pony. He appears far more offensively talented than MBN, and while I love how he looks as a prospect and his fit, that could just as easily be a massive whiff. Classic drafting for perceived need. Defense and forechecking is nice in a wing, but are those really the skills to draft for in the top 10? Is that not something that can be found later?