Prospect Info: 2024 NHL Draft Thread

[Captain3rdLine]

I do not have any definitive opinions on any prospect because I have not watched them. I read what I can and like to weigh pure stats guys vs traditional scouts.

Based on everything I’ve read, Sennecke would be a fine pick. His potential seems understated here. You’d think he’s just a guy and not, as plenty of people seem to be saying, one of the most dynamic, creative rush players in the draft. We will always be a rush heavy team with Jack and Nico, so for all the talk of fit — there’s your fit.

And that’s all fine but some people in here including myself disagree and think there’s better options which is the nature of much of the conversations on these prospect boards. We’ll see in the long run how he turns out.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

You're a valuable contributor to these threads, without a doubt. But I think the level of objection you're receiving right now is strictly due to a misconception that the opinions of our own prospect writers are somehow less meaningful than the ones with larger platforms.

I read everything you and @Guadana post — you should get paid for the stuff you do. Same with all of the draft sickos here.

The draft is such a crapshoot that no one really knows anything. But clearly the MBN super fans here were on to something because his tracked stats (via Lassi Alanen) absolutely matched up with your scouting reports. His forechecking and defense stats were amazing.

 

[StevenToddIves]

You was the second one, Steve. I can admit that you turned the Solberg's train on, but Nygard's hype was my thing. One norweg per one nj hf board scout.

I'm writing you out of my will.

 

[Forge]

Athletic did their live mock and took sennecke to Utah 6. Pronman remains steadfast that NHL people are telling him he's too low on sennecke, so he thinks he could go 6/7. Peters says the smoke is legit for him

Pronman gave us Yakemchuk at 10

 

[Captain3rdLine]

Athletic did their live mock and took sennecke to Utah 6. Pronman remains steadfast that NHL people are telling him he's too low on sennecke, so he thinks he could go 6/7. Peters says the smoke is legit for him

Pronman gave us Yakemchuk at 10

I think Yakemchuk has some really nice skill but feel like it’s pretty unlikely we take him given our RD. Unless our scouts are in love with him.

 

[evnted]

demidov never stood a chance with pronman, the poor guy's still scarred from ranking drouin 1OA in 2013 lol (and this is no disrespect to him, we all have our misses)

i really, really hate that this is the way things have gone with sennecke. i spent a lot of time in the first half of the season defending him against people who had him ranked 20s-30s+ and now it feels like im low on the guy because i dont love him in the top 10. it almost feels like the rhetoric is overcompensating for the fact that people were too low on him to start the year

obviously theres no matching helenius's off puck awareness, but sennecke's is definitely up there, and of the usual names he probably has the best one on one skill/creativity. i do buy him in the teens. but i think it's important to contextualize that, on a board that heavily prioritizes compete+IQ above skill, hes likely not going to be received as well as other places, and when you factor in that hes more projection heavy than others in the discussion, it just doesnt do him any favors here

ill go on record that if we were to take him at 10, i wouldnt be freaking out over it. i wouldnt like it, particularly factoring in who wed have passed on to do so, but i can see avenue toward being a fine top 6 play facilitator when paired with better/smarter puck moving support down the middle like hed be getting here. i just wouldnt feel like it was the best use of the pick/greatest benefit to the roster

 

[Forge]

I think Yakemchuk has some really nice skill but feel like it’s pretty unlikely we take him given our RD. Unless our scouts are in love with him.

Pronman seemed a bit at a loss for what to do here and I assume that he went with his own big board even though it was a predictive mock. He took him over iginla and Catton, for example. I think he really wanted to go sennecke or Dickinson here but they were both gone

He basically said we had no organizational weaknesses (absolutely not true) and he expects them to go bpa (same for Buffalo) if each of those teams keeps the pick.

 

[Guadana]

I'm writing you out of my will.

Nope, you are not. Our relationships are too toxic and you are too dependent.

 

[Forge]

I'm not overly familiar with the way the Russian league structures work, so is there a reason why Demidov played the entire year in the MHL? Even if he wasn't KHL ready, I would have though he'd have played the season in the VHL?

 

[StevenToddIves]

I read everything you and @Guadana post — you should get paid for the stuff you do. Same with all of the draft sickos here.

The draft is such a crapshoot that no one really knows anything. But clearly the MBN super fans here were on to something because his tracked stats (via Lassi Alanen) absolutely matched up with your scouting reports. His forechecking and defense stats were amazing.

Thanks for the kind words!

I disagree that the draft is a "crapshoot". I would change the wording to "imperfect science".

There is a reason why -- if you go back 5 or 6 drafts and compare where I have ranked defensemen and Scott Wheeler or Byron Bader have ranked defensemen -- well, they're not even in my league in that particular arena of draft projection. And it's not because I'm smarter, but rather because my areas of projecting defensemen are constantly self-scrutinized and fought to be improved, while they both refuse to change from a hardline stance of placing statistical output at the top of the importance-chart for a position where they tell barely a small percentage of the entire story.

What I'm saying in a nutshell -- and this is particularly with defensemen in order to be able to better defend my argument -- what Wheeler and Bader are doing is definitively a "crapshoot". What I am doing is still imperfect, but I'm constantly incorporating new data and ways to interpret this data in order to improve at what I do. So, "imperfect science".

Why my lower-than-normal ranking of Sennecke? Well, I made the mistake before with very high rankings of toolsy-but-unfocused wingers like Jacob Perreault and Noel Gunler and Dominik Bokk. Now, it's an imperfect science because Sennecke clearly showed a greater improvement arc over the course of his draft-eligible season than those players. But Perreault and Gunler in particular were also far better skaters than Sennecke, which gives a prospect a bit of a cheat code, even when their compete level is not too high above average.

Ultimately, I think a lot of the hype for Sennecke -- again -- is that he's 6'3 and plays in the OHL. If we're talking about guys with the most "pure offensive upside" when we're ranking our top 10, you can't have Sennecke in it and not Eiserman. If we're talking about players who showed huge draft-year improvements and have big-time offensive upside in the top 10, we can't include Sennecke and not Michael Hage. I just think people get caught up in hype and cherry pick what matters to support their arguments. And I'm not even going to get into the debate of people who have Sennecke over Demidov or Catton because, to me, they're downright silly. As good as Sennecke is, the only way Sennecke winds up better than those two is if he hits his pinnacle of talent ceiling and they both blow out knees.

The players I would ask you to watch to compare to Sennecke would probably be Chernyshov and Hage. Chernyshov is a better skater and comparable puck-handler. He lacks Sennecke's elite-level passing vision but is a better pure goal-scorer and an extremely physical winger who plays an advanced, 200-foot game.

Hage is a center, not a wing, but if we're talking about high development arc over the course of his draft-eligible season? It's Hage, not Sennecke. Hage got off to a slow start due to a major shoulder injury and the tragic death of his father over the summer. Over the last 20+ games of the USHLseason, Hage scored at a 2-points-per-game clip and finished with similar numbers to Sennecke. Hage is a touch behind Sennecke in puck-skills and passing but not too far, but he's a better goal-scorer, a much, much better skater and plays center.

I agree it's a wide open draft, but it's still not a crapshoot. If we do our jobs well as prospect analysts and hockey lovers, it's more of an "Imperfect science". I cannot guarantee I will be right ten years down the road with everything I say on these threads, but I have done my research and can explain my viewpoints both comprehensively and confidently. And if I'm wrong, I'll work hard to figure out how and why I was wrong.

Athletic did their live mock and took sennecke to Utah 6. Pronman remains steadfast that NHL people are telling him he's too low on sennecke, so he thinks he could go 6/7. Peters says the smoke is legit for him

Pronman gave us Yakemchuk at 10

What do you think the odds are that a team with Nemec and Hamilton long-term at RD and a top prospect of RD Seamus Casey take a RD with their only 1st round pick in a three-year span?

 

[Forge]

What do you think the odds are that a team with Nemec and Hamilton long-term at RD and a top prospect of RD Seamus Casey take a RD with their only 1st round pick in a three-year span?

I should say that Casey was brought up after the fact, I think by Wheeler (he indicated something to the extent of, "godspeed to seamus casey trying to get PP time on that roster") and the response was (I think by Pronman) that in this situation, Casey likely wouldn't stick with the devils if he was the pick.

I think there's a chance that Dougie isn't here long term most likely. I could easily see him on a ticking clock as early as next season when his full no move expires, so I'm not going to be overly dramatic about the team taking another RD if they did. Two years down the road, perspectives shift, draft picks become trade fodder, etc etc. However, I think it's far more likely that they go forward with this pick. If they want some grit up front, I think this is a pretty good spot to go and get it from guys like Iginla, MBN, Helenius, etc. If they want to move down, they can add that kind of guy on the back end in Solberg if they want. I could see Fitz really liking him given all the talk he's given about adding violence and what not lol

 

[StevenToddIves]

demidov never stood a chance with pronman, the poor guy's still scarred from ranking drouin 1OA in 2013 lol (and this is no disrespect to him, we all have our misses)

i really, really hate that this is the way things have gone with sennecke. i spent a lot of time in the first half of the season defending him against people who had him ranked 20s-30s+ and now it feels like im low on the guy because i dont love him in the top 10. it almost feels like the rhetoric is overcompensating for the fact that people were too low on him to start the year

obviously theres no matching helenius's off puck awareness, but sennecke's is definitely up there, and of the usual names he probably has the best one on one skill/creativity. i do buy him in the teens. but i think it's important to contextualize that, on a board that heavily prioritizes compete+IQ above skill, hes likely not going to be received as well as other places, and when you factor in that hes more projection heavy than others in the discussion, it just doesnt do him any favors here

ill go on record that if we were to take him at 10, i wouldnt be freaking out over it. i wouldnt like it, particularly factoring in who wed have passed on to do so, but i can see avenue toward being a fine top 6 play facilitator when paired with better/smarter puck moving support down the middle like hed be getting here. i just wouldnt feel like it was the best use of the pick/greatest benefit to the roster

This is a great post. Everything you say here is 100% dead on.

I'm sticking to my proverbial guns and will continue to advance the idea that hockey IQ and compete level are near the top of the aspects to consider when evaluating the NHL Draft. I'm also going to stick to my guns and continue to advance the idea that *skill* is not completely always in line with *statistics*. Context is crucial.

I would not be happy if the Devils took Sennecke at #10. But it would not be the end of the world for me, either -- I certainly think he is potentially a top 6 scoring winger at the NHL level. I do not see any scenario at #10 where Senecke has the highest upside in any sense or where he was the best player or filled a particular NJ organizational need (skill, speed, interior play). While he has the requisite skill to play with a Hughes, Bratt or Hischier -- well, it's just he'd be the least talented in a group of players who all like to possess the puck and drive a line, with not enough players to forecheck, fish out pucks, win battles and crash creases.

Again, were the Devils drafting #15, I would entertain the discussion. But I still feel that if you're even considering drafting Sennecke ahead of a Buium or Silayev or Lindstrom or Demidov you probably need to re-evaluate your scouting staff.

 

[StevenToddIves]

I should say that Casey was brought up after the fact, I think by Wheeler (he indicated something to the extent of, "godspeed to seamus casey trying to get PP time on that roster") and the response was (I think by Pronman) that in this situation, Casey likely wouldn't stick with the devils if he was the pick.

I think there's a chance that Dougie isn't here long term most likely. I could easily see him on a ticking clock as early as next season when his full no move expires, so I'm not going to be overly dramatic about the team taking another RD if they did. Two years down the road, perspectives shift, draft picks become trade fodder, etc etc. However, I think it's far more likely that they go forward with this pick. If they want some grit up front, I think this is a pretty good spot to go and get it from guys like Iginla, MBN, Helenius, etc. If they want to move down, they can add that kind of guy on the back end in Solberg if they want. I could see Fitz really liking him given all the talk he's given about adding violence and what not lol

Yes, I think given recent comments it may be high time to start mentioning Solberg more often as a possible Devils pick at #10.

Though some would call it absurd, it would be very similar in both conception and reaction to Detroit drafting Seider #6 a few years back.

 

[evnted]

I'm not overly familiar with the way the Russian league structures work, so is there a reason why Demidov played the entire year in the MHL? Even if he wasn't KHL ready, I would have though he'd have played the season in the VHL?

the unspoken answer is SKA expects hes not gonna re-up and they usually do this to prospects out of spite

a bit more expanded: a combination of brief/unimpressive khl deployments, some injury woes, and a bit of a shaky/rusty vhl showing while trying to play while laboring led to him getting a significant stretch of mhl time once he was back healthy. fair enough. but the lack of even considering a promotion once he was back and dominating is pretty typical from the team

 

[Forge]

the unspoken answer is SKA expects hes not gonna re-up and they usually do this to prospects out of spite

a bit more expanded: a combination of brief/unimpressive khl deployments, some injury woes, and a bit of a shaky/rusty vhl showing while trying to play while laboring led to him getting a significant stretch of mhl time once he was back healthy. fair enough. but the lack of even considering a promotion once he was back and dominating is pretty typical from the team

I appreciate the response! I think they mentioned on the pdocast that Demidov has been pretty upfront about wanting to move to the NHL, so the spite thing seems like it tracks lol

 

[Alex NJD]

Like Nico?

To be fair Nico was a steady riser all year. He was already a great prospect entering the year, one of his biggest criticisms was that he wasn't playing in any significant league. He came over and immediately became a leading scorer in the Q on a bad Halifax team with little else in terms of future NHL talent. He then had a crazy performance at the U-20 WJC at 17 against teams mainly consisting of draftees from the "stacked" 2015 and 2016 drafts. The Hischier hype train was already at full steam nearly 6 months prior to the draft and it was at Nico vs Nolan well before the lottery.

Also Patrick's stock fell a ton as the year went on which is another story

 

[evnted]

as promised, here's the goalie primer. tl;dr the class isn't great on the north american side, but there are some interesting options overseas. keep in mind im definitely not the best goalie scout, so the discussions wont be as deep as they are in my profiles. that said, ive looked at about a dozen or so names, and feel comfortable giving a brief overview on them

Evan Gardner
A little undersized but pretty quick in net and exceptionally good at tracking the puck. Really good at making minor adjustments to square up to shooters. Tons of control in his movement, not frantic, not overshooting laterally, doesn't break down on broken plays. Plays small: tight stance, deep in net. Rebound control is inconsistent. No measurables stand out as high end in spite of his great awareness. Hard to project for a few reason: small, not super athletic, and sheltered behind a really good Saskatoon team.

Carter George
Extremely composed in net and a big game player at that. Excellent positional focus, almost robotic in his movements. Puck tracking and anticipation are both very good. Not so great athleticism, and also a little undersized. Just ok in terms of reaction speed and reflexes. Competitive on desperation attempts, but never feels like a major threat to save them. Can appear shaky on high danger chances outside the crease. Intriguing mentality but probably a little overrated by the public.

Marcus Gidlof
Huge and imposing in net. Great scanning and puck tracking, as well as anticipation. Consistently good on first reads. Awkwardly long arm extensions almost seem to shove pucks away than attempt to swallow them. Slower and lower pace in net than you'd expect. Lateral mobility is not quite there, nor are his adjustments. Framework is easy to build off of, but not the greatest athlete. Long term project piece.

Kam Hendrickson
Quick glove hand. Cheats angles a little, but can make up for it. Solid size, though he does play tight and very low to the ice, making him look smaller. Good aggression on shooters, but between his angles and stance, he can get burned. Tracking is quite good, more often being beat cleanly than by misreading a play. Extremely hard to project given a lack of high end traits and how much he played at the high school level.

Ryerson Leenders
Really good athleticism at the expense of naturally anticipating play. Lighting quick reflexes and excellent desperation save ability. Responsive and assertive with challenging shooters. Lacks technical play and refined movements. Sloppy positioning leads to weak spots and easy scoring chances. Too much movement in net exposes him on second chances. Projecting a smaller, athletic-focused goalie without standout tools is a little uncomfortable.

Pavel Moysevich
Towering and wide presence in net. Great lateral movement helps him cover a lot of space quickly and without overcomitting. Very reactive to shot attempts, swallows them well. Particularly adept down low and in the butterfly. Overager, and not an elite athlete for his size. Some inconsistencies with rebound control. Good intent with glove, but not always getting clean leather on pucks. Overall well balanced goalie.

Ilya Nabokov
Undersized triple overager with unprecedented KHL success. Incredible positional instincts and consistency. Always knows where pucks are coming from. Squares up well, but incredible at quickly correcting, too. Deliberate and controlled movements, though not to say he won't challenge with an aggressive poke. Small and not particularly athletic, just savvy. Concern over how much more growth can come, if any.

Petteri Rimpinen
Small but very energetic in net. Lots of quick, accurate reactions to first attempts. Super aggressive at challenging angles. Mobility itself isn't overly fast, but his reflexes are. Struggles as play breaks down and he needs to track follow-up attempts. Overreactive to plays. Naturally has major projection concerns at 6ft even. Decent success playing up in Mestis. so some proof of concept.

Kim Saarinen
Good size and puck tracking. Great at adjusting on shot attempts. Overplays angles and lacks recoverability due to suboptimal skating and athleticism. Positioning is good, as are reads, but sometimes seems a half step back in terms of reactions. Can struggle with screens in spite of his size. In control when he's able to predict play in front of him, but struggles beyond that. Slight habit of letting in softies as well. Big time project dependent upon measurables coming along.

Emil Vinni
Hyper athletic to the point of seeming chaotic. Solid size. Jittery in net with extremely fast reflexes. Less about adjustments and more about lunging over to block shot attempts. Lateral movement can lag. Doesn't always track the puck well, particularly through traffic, almost feels like he's playing off instinct than he is the play in front of him. Gets shelled on the blocker side and can easily melt down. No game to game dependability.

Mikhail Yegorov
Mix of great size and structure in net, and still with solid athleticism. Quick, snappy movement on shots, and with pretty decent tracking. Undisturbed by traffic in front or pressure around the crease. Great adaptability and compete as play breaks down. Some trouble with angles, especially on glove side, as well as with not overshooting on lateral movements. Anticipation fluctuates between hesitating and being way too overreactive. Hate to bring up stats, but even on a rough team, they're brutal.

Kirill Zarubin
Big, athletic, and with great instincts. Quick reflexes and movement in net. Excellent ability to fight and see through traffic. Rarely seems to lose track of the puck. Doesn't typically bite on fakes or drop his angle. Pretty chaotic in net, but potentially in response to his team's pathetic defensive coverage. Lacks fundamentals, doesn't always protect the post well. Balanced and underappreciated game with incredible resiliency.

 

[Forge]

Pavel Moysevich
Towering and wide presence in net. Great lateral movement helps him cover a lot of space quickly and without overcomitting. Very reactive to shot attempts, swallows them well. Particularly adept down low and in the butterfly. Overager, and not an elite athlete for his size. Some inconsistencies with rebound control. Good intent with glove, but not always getting clean leather on pucks. Overall well balanced goalie.

His KHL contract is pretty long if I remember right. Wouldn't be the craziest thing if he fell further than I see his projections.

 

[Mike27Devils]

Him picking it up is nice and certainly helps his stock but still shouldn’t get him near the top 10 IMO. He’s an elusive and smart offensive player who does not possess high-end skill. Some of his offense is not overly translatable. Even in that highlight clip, a lot of it is just him putting the puck through defenders triangles and moves like that which won’t work nearly as well as the NHL level on their own.

His skating is below average at the NHL level, his hands are overrated because of the moves you see him pulling off(most of those moves have more to do with his mind than his hands), and his shot is decent. Personally wouldn’t touch him near the top 10.

Again, smart offensive player, who’s pretty deceptive and elusive. Has potential to be a top 6 player especially if he fills in his frame well and get a faster and stronger. But lacks the high-end skills, physical tools, and potential to be a top 10 pick.

The buzz is he will now likely be selected before the Devils pick at #10. He has the highest upside as a winger besides Demidov.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

The buzz is he will now likely be selected before the Devils pick at #10. He has the highest upside as a winger besides Demidov.

Highly disagree with that but everyone’s entitled to their opinions.

 

[Mike27Devils]

Highly disagree with that but everyone’s entitled to their opinions.

I respect your opinion. I'm scared to have such strong ones since there is so much time for players to develop and it can be hard to predict how translatable skills are but based on his hockey IQ, skill, size, shot, passing, his room to fill out into his body etc. the upside is so high. Hockey prospects (Black Book), who I have the most respect for out of any scouting outlet, have him at #6 in their final rankings. When someone is a big riser towards the end of the draft year, more times than not, the prospect pans out and lives up to their draft position. I think him and Demidov are the only wingers that have true topline upside, not just top 6.

 

[Its Always Sundstrom]

We need a goalie named “Vinni” in Jersey.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

I respect your opinion. I'm scared to have such strong ones since there is so much time for players to develop and it can be hard to predict how translatable skills are but based on his hockey IQ, skill, size, shot, passing, his room to fill out into his body etc. the upside is so high. Hockey prospects (Black Book), who I have the most respect for out of any scouting outlet, have him at #6 in their final rankings. When someone is a big riser towards the end of the draft year, more times than not, the prospect pans out and lives up to their draft position. I think him and Demidov are the only wingers that have true topline upside, not just top 6.

The thing is I don’t think any of those skills you mentioned are that great with him. He’s a pretty smart and deceptive offensive player with a pretty good shot. His hands are pretty good but overrated and I don’t think the way he plays is that translatable. Think it catches people’s eye but doesn’t translate well to the NHL against bigger, faster, and smarter defenders. Certainly some skill to develop into a top 6 forward if he fills out well and gets stronger and faster but I don’t see any really elite skill to say he has high upside.

Just what I see. Could be wrong so we’ll see what happens.

 

[Normal Devil]

What are the odds that the Devils look to pull a slight trade back in round one in hopes of adding a 2nd round draft pick to their bag? It seems like we could possibly go back 5 or 6 spots and still land a player they may covet. Is that enough of a move back to accomplish that? Snagging someone's 2nd might be appealing to the Devils.

 

[Forge]

What are the odds that the Devils look to pull a slight trade back in round one in hopes of adding a 2nd round draft pick to their bag? It seems like we could possibly go back 5 or 6 spots and still land a player they may covet. Is that enough of a move back to accomplish that? Snagging someone's 2nd might be appealing to the Devils.

Fitz hasn't shown any indication of a desire to maneuver around the draft so far as I can remember, so I'd wager he doesn't move