Prospect Info: 2024 NHL Draft Thread

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MartyOwns

thank you shero
Apr 1, 2007
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the issue is that teams are typically trying to pawn off their old overpriced declining vets for picks. Think Anderson or Markstrom. These sorts of players aren't worth what their teams want for them. If Markstrom was available for anything remotely reasonable he'd almost certainly be a Devil already. If they want 10 for Markstrom I wouldn't want Fitz to say yes.
on no planet is markstrom worth #10, i get it and i agree. i don't want markstrom at all. but if they add coleman retained and we add a filler pick? there are a lot of options you guys aren't considering.

nothing about how we get a goalie is going to be ideal. we selected holtz in 2020, a huge boner on fitz's part. now we have to bite the bullet, and if the cost is a draft pick so be it. we have to get out of this cycle.
 
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My3Sons

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on no planet is markstrom worth #10, i get it and i agree. i don't want markstrom at all. but if they add coleman retained and we add a filler pick? there are a lot of options you guys aren't considering.

nothing about how we get a goalie is going to be ideal. we selected holtz in 2020, a huge boner on fitz's part. now we have to bite the bullet, and if the cost is a draft pick so be it. we have to get out of this cycle.
So you are saying we have to bite Fitz's huge boner? What are you 12?
 

longislanddevil

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Jun 16, 2011
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So you are saying we have to bite Fitz's huge boner? What are you 12?
You will eat it and you will like it! :)

In what can only be disastrous, I've agreed to go on my friend's hockey podcast about the draft this afternoon.

Every time I'm alone in my apartment and talk out loud, my cat assumes I'm talking to her and starts meowing. I think it's because during the pandemic I went a bit stir crazy and would sit there talking to her about Kierkegaard or whatever. My cat f--king hates Kierkegaard.
How do we get a hold of this podcast?
 

MartyOwns

thank you shero
Apr 1, 2007
24,666
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Guys, please enough "trade the pick" talk on the draft page. Doesn't belong here. This is about the prospects. Trade talk is fine here if we're talking about trading up or down in the draft and why. Otherwise, it's contrary to the nature of the thread.
you have 3 different active draft threads going right now, man. them's the breaks.
 
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Guadana

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Mar 7, 2012
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Don’t feed the troll.
In what can only be disastrous, I've agreed to go on my friend's hockey podcast about the draft this afternoon.

Every time I'm alone in my apartment and talk out loud, my cat assumes I'm talking to her and starts meowing. I think it's because during the pandemic I went a bit stir crazy and would sit there talking to her about Kierkegaard or whatever. My cat f--king hates Kierkegaard.
kierkegaard was fun read in my early 20’s.
 

StevenToddIves

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May 18, 2013
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You will eat it and you will like it! :)


How do we get a hold of this podcast?
The guy who runs the podcast says it will be up tomorrow after he edits. I'll post the link on the draft pages here.

It's pretty long, but I think we did a good job talking about the prospects. I explained how I research and rank them, while also admitting the holes in my research and the "rankings system" in general. For instance how I have Buium, Dickinson and Levshunov ranked 4,5 & 8 but it's essentially more of a "what type of player do you want" than "who does Steve think is better".

I probably mispronounced every Russian name and expect to hear about it from @Guadana
 

PizzaAndPucks

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Nov 29, 2018
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Catton seems like a player who might fall out of the the top 10 and a few teams will regret not taking him. That's what it seems like so far. His size can be an issue but if he finds another gear to his skating ability he could be something special. He has eye popping numbers for an 18 year old player in the WHL. If he was bigger or an elite skater he would be a lock for a top 3 pick IMO.
 

StevenToddIves

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Catton seems like a player who might fall out of the the top 10 and a few teams will regret not taking him. That's what it seems like so far. His size can be an issue but if he finds another gear to his skating ability he could be something special. He has eye popping numbers for an 18 year old player in the WHL. If he was bigger or an elite skater he would be a lock for a top 3 pick IMO.
The very same things were said about Cole Perfetti, who is similar to Catton in terms of position (C in junior but likely LW in pros), CHL stats, general play style and individual tools.

In the 2020 draft, Perfetti went a bit lower than where the consensus had him (generally in the 5-7 range) at #10 overall to Winnipeg. If there was a re-draft of 2020, Perfetti would likely fall to the 15-20 range, although many still believe he will blossom into a very good scorer at the NHL level.

Now, of course Berkly Catton is not Cole Perfetti. But it's rare to see two players in such a short time with so many parallels.

I like Catton a lot and think he has as much (or more) pure offensive upside as any forward I have ranked in the 3-15 range, which includes (in order): Lindstrom, Nygard, Helenius, Iginla, Hage and Chernyshov. However, I'd also rank his two-way play, interior game and consistency of compete level on a lower level than those other forwards, which is why I have him ranked (slightly) behind the rest of the group.

Size did not factor into this decision, although skating did. I'd say Catton is around the same skating level as Iginla, Helenius and Chernyshov but is definitely not at the level of Lindstrom, Nygard or Hage.

This is all to say while I believe Catton deserves consideration to be drafted as high as the 5-to-7 range, there is also an equal argument to wait until the early teens. But out of all of them, if you want to go "high-ceiling" it's Lindstrom without any doubt, if you want to go "high floor" it's Helenius or Nygard. Catton's truth is probably somewhere in the middle.
 

evnted

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Apr 14, 2016
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2024 Draft Profile:

RD Ben Danford, Oshawa OHL

A lot of the excitement in scouting is generally attributed to seeing flashes of upside in players and wondering just how high of a level they can hit down the road. Other times, though, kids can be exciting when everything they do is projectable and easy to envision in your lineup, which is where Danford comes into play. The average sized defender can come off a bit vanilla at times, but I find his consensus ranking in the 2nd round to be more than fair.

Danford is all about the defensive end. Anything you want in a shutdown defender, he offers: solid gap control, great defensive stick work, competitive physical play, clear retrieval upside, poise under pressure, and an overall strong compete level. Perhaps best of all is his shot blocking ability, which is legitimately as good as you can ask for in a draft eligible prospect. The player is constantly throwing himself in front of shot attempts, and the frequency with which he sees results speaks to the extent of his timing, reads, and team-first mentality. He's the type of player who simply makes you feel better when he's on the ice because you know he'll be doing whatever it takes to keep the puck out of the net. Danford also shows some upside as a solid breakout option. His skating has some quirks, but generally speaking it's smooth, with good speed, and some decent edges. He's comfortable enough on the puck to play up in transition, and typically has no trouble connecting with teammates on simple, direct passes.

Overall, though, his game is fairly limited. There really aren't any offensive tools to discuss. He can surprise with a pass, or activate when he sees a clear lane to attack, but this is a player who's still typically thinking about the defensive end even when he's positioned at the point. I don't personally have much issue with this, it makes it very obvious what type of projection you're targeting with him, but I know there'll be bigger swings in his projected range, so he might not be for everyone. There's really not that much else to discuss as an outright negative per se. He can play a little too far up when challenging puck carriers, but I think that's been worked back over the course of the year. I also thought his physical play wasn't consistently delivering results to start the season, but again, that progressed, and he was even bodying some opponents during the playoffs.

With Danford, what you see is what you get. This is an easy enough projection, even if it's not particularly high in your lineup. I can always be convinced of the value of a right shot 4-6 D who can play on your top PK and consistently move pucks up the ice. I've seen people argue that his flashes of higher level playmaking and offensive zone movement indicate there's more under the hood, which I'm not really that convinced of given how infrequently they appear, but in all honesty, his projection doesn't even require it anyway. One thing worth noting is Danford played a lot of LD this year, which is bizarre for a right shot defender to be doing, and I suppose that could point to some long term flexibility (even if I expect him to generally line up along the right side anyway). He's not really the direction we should be looking in the 3rd round, but I do like the player and would be fine picking him if available.

cc: @NiWa
 

Guadana

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Mar 7, 2012
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But since he’s a radiologist all he has to do is look at pictures.
This days it’s look like my job and life. So your brother was right from the beginning.

When I was in University, me and a couple of my friends read existential literature, artistic philosophical literature. I was very math guy in school days so it was fun to change the focus. Coatzee, Dostoevsky, latinoamercian magical realism, German philosophy, Nitsche, Camus, Joyce, about 10-20 antiutopias - 9-19 more antiutopias than I should read, of course Vonnegut, Burroughs, Kerouac etc etc - quite standard pack of books for 17-23 yo boy.

There were fun story how I wanted to read book version of Bridge (Banks) and I spent 4 years to find the book in stores. I spent 3 years to find La Casa Verde of Liosa. Banks was meh, Liosa was great. Overall he is one of my favorite writers. Big fan of his “War of the end of the world”.

Now I’m not a big read guy. 5 books is a good year for me. Art career and hockey is taking too much focus away from me.

My cat disagrees. But then again, my cat also really likes Zeev Buium, so maybe the two of you have more in common than we know.
For today I’m more agree with your cat than with Danish philosopher.
 

Guadana

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Mar 7, 2012
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Catton seems like a player who might fall out of the the top 10 and a few teams will regret not taking him. That's what it seems like so far. His size can be an issue but if he finds another gear to his skating ability he could be something special. He has eye popping numbers for an 18 year old player in the WHL. If he was bigger or an elite skater he would be a lock for a top 3 pick IMO.
It’s a nature of the good draft. There are 12-18 players to say this. Some will overproduce some will not. Even if he will develop his game enough, let’s hope Fitz will draft good two way player and this player will develop his game enough too.

Size did not factor into this decision, although skating did. I'd say Catton is around the same skating level as Iginla, Helenius and Chernyshov but is definitely not at the level of Lindstrom, Nygard or Hage.

This is all to say while I believe Catton deserves consideration to be drafted as high as the 5-to-7 range, there is also an equal argument to wait until the early teens. But out of all of them, if you want to go "high-ceiling" it's Lindstrom without any doubt, if you want to go "high floor" it's Helenius or Nygard. Catton's truth is probably somewhere in the middle.

Chernyshov is better skater than Catton - at least for his size, and much faster.
Catton has high ceiling. Panarin is very high ceiling. But Lindstrom as potential 70-80 points guy is more attractive piece of prospect product because of the job he is making. Nygard as ppg player and 35+ goals scorer in his perfect version is very attractive too.

Concept of the floor and ceiling should be overthinked. Because the nature of it is wrong now. People see high ceiling in players with puck handling and crazy tricks. So tell me why Zegras isn’t the best player from 2019 draft. Production in junior league? Why Rossi will never be best 2020 guy? It should be overthinked. Because it’s about decision making, speed of decision making and tools for the specific job.
 
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Nubmer6

Sleep is a poor substitute for caffeine
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Jul 14, 2013
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i wish this was in purple text. :D

Guys, please enough "trade the pick" talk on the draft page. Doesn't belong here. This is about the prospects. Trade talk is fine here if we're talking about trading up or down in the draft and why. Otherwise, it's contrary to the nature of the thread.

There, fixt.
 

evnted

Registered User
Apr 14, 2016
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2024 Draft Profile:

LW Javon Moore, Minnetonka USHS

Let's get right into it: Moore looks like a video game character against high school level competition. He's bigger, faster, stronger, and more skilled than the vast majority of kids he's sharing the ice with. Moore's rankings are pretty much all over the place, and I'd say that's fitting considering his on-ice product is just about as chaotic. Strap in, there's a lot to say here.

Everything Moore does exudes power and pace. The 6'2" 180lb winger, who honestly looks even bigger than that, covers a ton of ground quickly and without even seemingly breaking a sweat. Now, the thing with his skating is that it's not so much stride efficiency or straight-line speed he excels at, and in some respect both of those might even be fringe weaknesses for him, it's the raw power and momentum he can generate that's so overwhelming, plus, not to mention, the fact that he will absolutely hound defenders for the puck. This player is beyond relentless in puck battles. He combines a ton of intensity with some proactive body play and really aggressive stick work to frequently come away from the boards with possession. He's also commonly attacking around the crease and driving middle ice off of entries.

As exciting as his forechecking game is, there's still legitimate skill here, too. His handling is impressive for his size, and even better when combined with his relentless puck possession to make a lot of opposing defenders miss on one on one plays. Moore, again, showcases some impressive raw power with how quickly he can rifle pucks across the ice. He's quite confident with the lanes he'll challenge, and when he connects, the plays do look pretty. His shot is also a clear + weapon in terms of both how heavy it is and how electric his release is. Moore is very aggressive with challenging for breakout opportunities and counter attacks. That's not to say he doesn't support down low, it's just a lot of puck chasing or fishing for stretch passes. He's definitely at his best when he's applying the same level of intensity on the backcheck and pressuring defenders into mistakes or outright stripping them of the puck.

What becomes immensely concerning about Moore's projection is the fact that he has major processor concerns, even at this low of a level. I mean, if I'm watching you go against a program called Wayzata High and I'm genuinely worried about your ability to read play, that's pretty scary. Moore will routinely rocket passes to areas that he thinks his linemates are at, which, I'm sure you can predict, does not result in a high completion rate. Some attempts are more egregious than others. When he sees someone in a scoring opportunity around the slot and it's more of a hopeful connection on a high danger play, I understand it. When he's under pressure and just launches it behind him hoping someone will be down low to receive it, that's way more problematic.

The concerns extend nearly everywhere, though, not just with his puck management. He simply seems to lack an overall awareness level. While physically back in the defensive zone, he can look pretty directionless if he's not actively hunting the puck. Other times, he'll be cheating up for a breakout pass and have no idea the defender he's up against is pinching toward the lane to intercept the puck. Even further, he'll try to stickhandle through two or three opponents in the neutral zone, and again, to his credit, he does have the capability to do so, but it's such a low percentage opportunity that directly burns his team when it fails, and he's doing it for no reason. This is a player that has unbelievable compete, legitimate skill and deception on the puck, and a very projectable frame and athletic toolkit, who otherwise should be a slam dunk early round pick, but his brain will just shut off so often that it's probably scaring many of these scouting services.

What's ultimately frustrating with Moore is that he offers quite literally everything we should be seeking out in the middle rounds of this draft, but it's virtually impossible not to worry about his processor and think he's only dominating this level because he's an athletic freak. While some might point to immaturity or junior tendencies, both of which do have legitimacy, the issues definitely transcend that.

I think it's pretty common for super raw prospects to have their upside overrated, particularly when they play at a level this low, but in Moore's case, I really can subscribe to the idea that he could be a top 6 caliber player if everything breaks right. Putting aside the usual power forward elements, he does have playmaking vision and abilty, he is capable of playing at a high intensity level, he can start plays and move pucks in transition, etc.; we're not talking the typical lumbering, shoot-first power winger who relies on his linemates to do all the work for him. I'm just so genuinely concerned about how many lapses in play I've seen that I really don't know what to think. He's worth taking a flier on, that's for sure, but I still need time to mull over how early I'd go.
 

StevenToddIves

Registered User
May 18, 2013
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Brooklyn, NY
The draft rankings video podcast I'm featured on is up. I warn you all it's really long haha.

I come on at about the 25 minute mark, if that helps shorten things. I think we start discussing the actual prospects is about the 46 minute mark, mostly because I'm bad at knowing when to shut up. If you want to know how weird I am, the 25-46 minute might be funny to watch.

 

Guadana

Registered User
Mar 7, 2012
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St Petersburg
The draft rankings video podcast I'm featured on is up. I warn you all it's really long haha.

I come on at about the 25 minute mark, if that helps shorten things. I think we start discussing the actual prospects is about the 46 minute mark, mostly because I'm bad at knowing when to shut up. If you want to know how weird I am, the 25-46 minute might be funny to watch.




Steeeeeve. I like this cover picture. You look older than I feel from your writings. Young soul!

I need time to listen.
 
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