HF Habs: 2024 NHL Draft Thread

[Habs Halifax]

I think BPA is a notion that’s been thrown out the window since more and more players start contributing by the age of 18-19 these days, along with the salary cap which prevents teams from simply plugging current holes by throwing money around.

I would tend to agree but the need pick from a waive of BPA talent is still at play. Yzerman taking Sieder ahead of Cozens, Zegras, Caufield, Knight is an example of that.

Why did you think we took Reinbacher over Michkov? Do you think it was because Reinbacher is a RD that fills a hole quicker than Michkov fills a forward spot (KHL contract)? Or because they considered them close to equal and they decided to go for need at RD?

 

[Hacketts]

Is Kent there?

Yes

 

[Habs Halifax]

Sure, and Sennecke has shown nothing to indicate he’s even on the same level as the guys he gets lumped in with on here. I’m not buying the hype at all. He’s one of those prospects where people try to convince you to look past both what you see on the ice and tangible results. KK was another one like that. A lot of this board drank the Kool-Aid on that one too, just like they’re doing here.

I see Sennecke as having middle-six upside, if everything goes well. That means he could be anywhere from a 3rd liner to a solid 2nd liner. I’m not seeing high end upside at all. He has no elite skills or attributes, and plenty of flaws in his game. Even his much hyped “hands” are just good, not great or elite.

Tell me what he’s done to separate himself from guys like Connelly, Hage, Luchanko, Greentree, Boisvert, etc, all of whom are ranked by most lists in the 16-17 to ~25 range. I’d take a few of guys over Sennecke no problem. Those are his cohorts, not Iginla, Catton, Eiserman - and certainly not Lindstrom or Demidov.

I agree with you on this. I really like Sennecke but only if I had the 10th or 11th pick. I think his trend or movement is being pushed up a bit too much.

He's got great size and very good hands with a great shot. But yeah, I have top 6F potential with him. Very low odds he becomes a top line forward.

Very curious to see where Bob has both Iggy and Sennecke in his final rankings. In May, Iggy was 10th and Sennecke was 14th. If Sennecke has rose that much, it will be reflected on Bob's list.

 

[le_sean]

I would tend to agree but the need pick from a waive of BPA talent is still at play. Yzerman taking Sieder ahead of Cozens, Zegras, Caufield, Knight is an example of that.

Why did you think we took Reinbacher over Michkov? Do you think it was because Reinbacher is a RD that fills a hole quicker than Michkov fills a forward spot (KHL contract)? Or because they considered them close to equal and they decided to go for need at RD?

There’s a lot of factors in these decisions. I think the one with Reinbacher over Michkov is based on interviews (character), control of his development (came to NA quickly), and position scarcity.

Obviously there’s a point where BPA supersedes need, like if the Sharks already had two good young centres, they still obviously take Celebrini. But when it’s fairly close, you take the need.

Like in this draft, I think you take the forward at 5. Unless you truly don’t believe in Guhle, Hutson, Xhekaj, Engstrom, Struble, Harris. You’d think at least two of them pan out to become really good.

 

[Habs Halifax]

There’s a lot of factors in these decisions. I think the one with Reinbacher over Michkov is based on interviews (character), control of his development (came to NA quickly), and position scarcity.

Obviously there’s a point where BPA supersedes need, like if the Sharks already had two good young centres, they still obviously take Celebrini. But when it’s fairly close, you take the need.

Yes, we see this close. I find in this next draft, there is lots of talk about the D but I see waives in both the F and D groups. I could eat crow but this forward group is not full of a bunch of Zadina's. Lots to like with Demi

If there was a clear BPA at 5 and it was a D, this Habs fan base would be talking about it. Like a can't miss guy. However, you hear all kinds of names so is there a sure shot BPA for D at 5? I don't believe so.

 

[SOLR]

Nurse has negative value. It’s ludicrous to think he’d return anything, and that the Oilers wouldn’t have to pay (assets or retention, likely both) to get rid of him.

No....not at all.
Name me one player of that age, in that style of play, with that physicality, with that shot blocking.

Of course if you didn't know the cohort you'd think he has negative value. But the only guys in his Cohort are
1) Dougie Hamilton (not moving)
2) Parayko (not moving)
3) Seth Jones. (declining fast)

Then if you go 1 level down you get

1) Trouba (Rangers fans don't want him either)
2) Provorov (Not as big or physical)
3) Hampus Lindholm (not moving)

1 degree younger you get
1) McAvoy (F-ing not moving)
2) Sergachev (F-ing not moving)
3) Dahlin (F F - not moving)
4) Pelech (not moving
5) Hanifin (not moving)
6) Ferraro (not moving)
7) Lindgren (not moving)

On Hfboards players get exposed as overvalued and they go in negative value. Come on.
Yes Savard would be a good option for Edmonton , but Savard is probably worth a 1st at the deadline to play 5th D, ideally.


This explains why the cohort we see in the draft this year, is so over-ranked, it's because their trade value is incredibly high right now.

Hell, 34 years old Ryan McDonagh just fetched a 2nd rounder. Nurse has a good 5 more years ahead of him. All overpaid, but at some point others will catch up to that salary.

 

[Garbageyuk]

Slowly but surely, it's becoming Iginla vs Sennecke.

Habs management....good luck. Don't f*** this up.

Pretty much just on HF Habs, and it’s because a large number of people here still listen to a certain loud-mouthed buffoon for reasons I’ll never understand. The guy has been pumping his tires hard, just like he did with Laine (Laine over Matthews ), Puljujarvi, Kotkaniemi, McLeod (3rd overall ), Dylan Strome, and credit where credit is due, Slafkovsky. Like I’ve said before, he’s going milk the Slafkovsky thing for another decade lmao. The guy also had Kristian Vesalainen ranked 3rd overall in 2017 . Sennecke is his guy this year.

 

[red devil]

Yes

Is there any confirmation as the only GM's that have seen attending right now are Davidson, Verbeek and Conroy. There are 40 plus scouts at the camp so the Habs are most likely represented.

 

[Jaynki]

Teams do draft for need but when they do, they still think it's BPA or in a waive of talent. That's my point.

Yzerman took Seider ahead of Cozens, Zegras, Caufield, Boldy, Knight. Seider was like Reinbacher. A RD who was trending well and crept into the 5-10 mix.

Who's the BPA (using hindsight) from that list? I find that difficult to pick. Hence why Yzerman might have taken the RD and why the Habs took Reinbacher last draft.

I personally don't think teams list them one after another like you see on the internet. I believe it's much more deeper in context and there are BPA waives of talent.

Position, size and shooting right are important when determining BPA because we all know D with size and C with size are scarce and comes with a huge premium when available, even more when they shoot right.

They are important in individually determining who is BPA. But again, that is not related to drafting with actual teams needs or in function of next year draft. Those are distraction.

I acknowledge team will give an importance to needs especially when two players are in the same waive of talent. But when drafting top 5 or top 10, its all about pure upside. The rest is distraction.

Tho, at a certain stage, i hope we throw darts on a plethora of forward. But not at 5OV, it should not be a criteria there.

Is there any confirmation as the only GM's that have seen attending right now are Davidson, Verbeek and Conroy. There are 40 plus scouts at the camp so the Habs are most likely represented.

Dont take anything in that.

We are one of the few teams who scouted Demidov live and had contact with him.

There will also be other moment to interview and meet him.

 

[Hacketts]

Is there any confirmation as the only GM's that have seen attending right now are Davidson, Verbeek and Conroy. There are 40 plus scouts at the camp so the Habs are most likely represented.

"The pre-draft Showcase starts today in Florida, where prospect Ivan Demidov will be present.

The Habs' management will also be there (to meet him).

Very eager to read more and also to know Demidov's exact measurements!" - Marc-Olivier Beaudoin

I read somewhere Kent was seen in Florida yesterday.

 

[WeThreeKings]

Best part of the draft being over is Lafleurs Guy will stop posting about Eiserman. Love ya bud

 

[Garbageyuk]

It's about potential and likelyhood of hitting potential. Sennecke was a late riser and had a huge growth spurt. He may not have the pedigree of others but it's about his POTENTIAL.

Again, I’ve yet to see anyone bring up anything tangible as to why they believe he has that kind of potential because I’m not seeing it in terms of results on the ice, I’m not seeing on the stat line, I’m not seeing it in his attributes or in his play.

I’ll ask again, since you skipped over it last time: what has he done to separate himself from guys like Hage, Connelly, Luchanko, Greentree, and Boisvert, who are all rated between 16-17 to ~25-26? Thats the group he belongs with, and I’d take several of these guys over him.

Interested to hear your response to this in particular.

 

[le_sean]

Again, I’ve yet to see anyone bring up anything tangible as to why they believe he has that kind of potential because I’m not seeing it in terms of results on the ice, I’m not seeing on the stat line, I’m not seeing it in his attributes or in his play.

I’ll ask again, since you skipped over it last time: what has he done to separate himself from guys like Hage, Connelly, Luchanko, Greentree, and Boisvert, who are all rated between 16-17 to ~25-26? Thats the group he belongs with, and I’d take several of these guys over him.

Interested to hear your response to this in particular.

The 44 points in his last 27 games aren’t enough in the stat line? He was leading the OHL playoffs in scoring until he got hurt. Not a lot of draft eligible players do that.

As for not seeing the potential when you actually watch him, then I don’t know what to say. You don’t see the size, hands, shot, offensive awareness?

 

[Garbageyuk]

I agree with you on this. I really like Sennecke but only if I had the 10th or 11th pick. I think his trend or movement is being pushed up a bit too much.

He's got great size and very good hands with a great shot. But yeah, I have top 6F potential with him. Very low odds he becomes a top line forward.

Very curious to see where Bob has both Iggy and Sennecke in his final rankings. In May, Iggy was 10th and Sennecke was 14th. If Sennecke has rose that much, it will be reflected on Bob's list.

I think Iginla is just a much safer prospect than Sennecke, for reasons I covered in an earlier post.

I think they have some overlap in upside (likely middle-six), but Iginla has very little bust risk and does have a decent chance to be a top line guy. Whereas Sennecke carries a significantly higher bust risk imo, and I don’t see top line upside at all.

 

[Shutdown]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1803092511839166504

imagine paying 8 bucks a month for twitter to make it look like you're the official Don Draper from Mad Men account then using it to reply to Frank Seravalli

 

[Deebs]

"The pre-draft Showcase starts today in Florida, where prospect Ivan Demidov will be present.

The Habs' management will also be there (to meet him).

Very eager to read more and also to know Demidov's exact measurements!" - Marc-Olivier Beaudoin

I read somewhere Kent was seen in Florida yesterday.

Kent was in South Beach making hoes mad

Best part of the draft being over is Lafleurs Guy will stop posting about Eiserman. Love ya bud

Even Cole Eiserman think LG is obsessed with Cole Eiserman

 

[Pompeius Magnus]

imagine paying 8 bucks a month for twitter to make it look like you're the official Don Draper from Mad Men account then using it to reply to Frank Seravalli

Really goes to show money is nothing to some people.

 

[NobleSix]

Zero chance he is available for us. We need to move on from Demigod.

Yeah, we should move on alright...move on up to 3rd overall and draft him.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Best part of the draft being over is Lafleurs Guy will stop posting about Eiserman. Love ya bud

There's no way you dont enjoy those posts. You're going to miss them.

 

[Habs Halifax]

I think Iginla is just a much safer prospect than Sennecke, for reasons I covered in an earlier post.

I think they have some overlap in upside (likely middle-six), but Iginla has very little bust risk and does have a decent chance to be a top line guy. Whereas Sennecke carries a significantly higher bust risk imo, and I don’t see top line upside at all.

I would say Iginla is a better pick due to what he has done at his age and his international resume is better. Sennecke was not good enough to make team Canada for the U18's last year but Iggy was good enough for the U18's this season (and performed very well too). When you are talking about fast development at that age 17 and 18, a 6 or 8 month age difference can be massive at times.

Said it before and will say it again. Iggy was 1.5 months away from being in the 2025 draft. He's one of the youngest and hottest trending prospects in this draft. That's a big factor for me. Then I add his international U18's and yeah, he's my pick. I'm probably in a small group that would consider Iggy over Demidov.

 

[NotProkofievian]

I would say Iginla is a better pick due to what he has done at his age and his international resume is better. Sennecke was not good enough to make team Canada for the U18's last year but Iggy was good enough for the U18's this season (and performed very well too). When you are talking about fast development at that age 17 and 18, a 6 or 8 month age difference can be massive at times.

Said it before and will say it again. Iggy was 1.5 months away from being in the 2025 draft. He's one of the youngest and hottest trending prospects in this draft. That's a big factor for me. Then I add his international U18's and yeah, he's my pick. I'm probably in a small group that would consider Iggy over Demidov.

Sennecke was still in the CHL playoffs/injured. He would've made TC.

 

[WeThreeKings]

There's no way you dont enjoy those posts. You're going to miss them.

I didn't mind them at first but you've said the same thing a hundred times over now, I don't know how you have the energy to repeat yourself on it anymore. I guess probably in the same way I'm gonna bitch and moan about missing on Lindstrom and Demidov thanks to this combine, so actually do you buddy, I get it.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Sennecke was still in the CHL playoffs/injured. He would've made TC.

That was the 2023 U18's right? Thanks for pointing that out because I overlooked it. I do value the international sample sizes. Not going with it entirely and ignoring everything else but it does give you an alternative angle to evaluate. Sucks that we don't have that with both Lindstrom and Sennecke.

Where do you think Bob has both Iggy and Sennecke next week in his final rankings or do you care? I believe in May, Iggy was 10th and Sennecke was 14th.

I find it strange where I do not see Sennecke in most top 10 lists. If there are some, I'd like to see it shared. I totally see what kind of player he is. Not low on him, just higher with others. With Iggy, there are some who have him in the 5-10 range.

Between the two, who do you think has taken advantage of weak CHL D or breakdowns more? Who has the better support system in terms of the team and depth they have? I find this is something to dig into because of how much of a jump it is from CHL to pro. So many of these guys we like pre draft end up drowning.

 

[NotProkofievian]

That was the 2023 U18's right? Thanks for pointing that out because I overlooked it. I do value the international sample sizes. Not going with it entirely and ignoring everything else but it does give you an alternative angle to evaluate. Sucks that we don't have that with both Lindstrom and Sennecke.

Where do you think Bob has both Iggy and Sennecke next week in his final rankings or do you care? I believe in May, Iggy was 10th and Sennecke was 14th.

I find it strange where I do not seen Sennecke is most top 10 lists. If there are some, I'd like to see it shared. I totally see what kind of player he is. Not low on him, just higher with others. With Iggy, there are some who have him in the 5-10 range.

Sennecke played in the u17s in 2023, as did Iginla. Beckett was eligible for the 2024 u18s but TC always loses a few players to the CHL playoffs.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Sennecke played in the u17s in 2023, as did Iginla. Beckett was eligible for the 2024 u18s but TC always loses a few players to the CHL playoffs.

For some reason, I thought his birthdate was in December and turned 18 then. Would you agree that Iginla had a better U17's?

Who are you taking between Iggy, Sennecke, Catton?