HF Habs: 2024 NHL Draft Thread

[SOLR]

Nurse barely qualifies at being a defenseman and he’s certainly not a defensive one.

In his cohort, he plays PK, defends well on a good day, is in the top 5% for physicality, that would qualify him as a defensive D. Easy to dwell on guys doing stupid things, but that's not the only thing NHL GMs would focus on.

There is a reason he got the A, a no-movement clause (I don't know the details of) and so much $. The amount was stupid, first principle, but Nurse was probably still worth 7m, because of the offer/demand curve in his cohort.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

I love the direction of the current team, I'm on board with them fully. Feels like we're being built the right way on a lot of levels.

My point is that the era before Bergevin was more painful than his reign.

I'd argue the team made the right pick on 3 at the time. It's easy to say now we screwed that up, but the majority of fans wanted Galchenyuk. The prospect pool he inherited was a joke, compared to what HuGo received.

Say what you want, this man also brought us the most exciting Spring we had since 93' with a team that he actually spent his $$.

You're not wrong about him missing the opportunity to turn us into something more, and the fact Carey never got that support over a sustained time is his biggest failure.

Let's save the MB stuff for another thread.

I like where going now. High picks, trading for prospects, good development... exactly what we've been clamouring for. At a minimum, there's a plan in place and they're committed to it. We haven't had that in forever.

 

[Balthazar]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1803092511839166504

 

[le_sean]

Let me give you a potential scout breakdown and you play GM.

Buium will be a good top 4D at min. Iggy will be a top 6F at min. Iggy has the better chance to be a top line forward vs Buium being a top pairing defenseman.

Top 4D's are worth more than top 6F. Would you agree? If so, how do you manage your decision where the top 6F has a higher chance to reach top line vs the top 4D reaching top pairing.

How do you make your decision with your BPA strategy? Explain

I don’t think you can say Zeev Buium is a good top 4D at minimum. I expect him to hit that, but you never know if he just becomes a Tony Deangelo type where he needs to be insulated and force fed PP time to contribute to a team. He doesn’t really have the physical attributes or defensive game to say that his floor is 2nd pairing. Dickinson would be a better example here.

 

[Habs Halifax]

It is subjective at this point and both players have a case.

My point from the post you quoted is that teams current needs and next year draft are not variable to take into account in the process. They are distraction.

If i was a GM and it would come down to these two players, i would define as a group which one we prefer. Character, attitude, resilience, starpower would all be way more important to me than needing a top 6F or having already a plethora of LD.

Teams do draft for need but when they do, they still think it's BPA or in a waive of talent. That's my point.

Yzerman took Seider ahead of Cozens, Zegras, Caufield, Boldy, Knight. Seider was like Reinbacher. A RD who was trending well and crept into the 5-10 mix.

Who's the BPA (using hindsight) from that list? I find that difficult to pick. Hence why Yzerman might have taken the RD and why the Habs took Reinbacher last draft.

I personally don't think teams list them one after another like you see on the internet. I believe it's much more deeper in context and there are BPA waives of talent.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

The great core we had in 2013 was backed up by a very poor prospect pool. The miscalculation was we should have moved Pleky and Markov for more futures. NO, we decided to move forward with holes in key places and not much depth to support it. This was the Leafs problem too. Great core but horrible depth. This will gain momentum in the regular season but not for the playoffs.

Bergevin was hired for the 2012 summer. In the 4 years prior, Habs had 8 top 100 picks (Brutal). Yeah, we had Price, Subban, Patch, Gallagher and with the 3rd OA (Chucky). Then vets like Pleky and Markov. Where is the center? Galchenyuk?

Again, I have lots to say on this but let's save this for another thread.

Suffice it to say that I'm happy with our direction and I'm looking forward to the draft. There's little consensus on who goes where so it will be interesting. No matter who we draft I'll be happy with it. Management and scouting have earned that from me. In a short period of time they've collected some excellent prospects.

 

[Habs Halifax]

I don’t think you can say Zeev Buium is a good top 4D at minimum. I expect him to hit that, but you never know if he just becomes a Tony Deangelo type where he needs to be insulated and force fed PP time to contribute to a team. He doesn’t really have the physical attributes or defensive game to say that his floor is 2nd pairing. Dickinson would be a better example here.

It was a hypothetical scout statement where I wanted a pretend GM to make a decision on the report. A BPA vs Need decision in a waive of talent.

Who are you picking if you are the GM and getting this report. The stable top 4D or the top 6F with top line upside. Who's BPA for you in this case and you are on a team like the Habs that needs to add forwards.

If the scout gave you that same report, who are you picking and why?

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Then we'll get Lindstrom. No biggie.

I don't get the doom and gloom based on what? One inch and a back injury about which most NHL teams have probably known about for weeks?

There's no need to make things difficult. Lindstrom, Demidov or Iginla is going to be there at 5, as well as a plethora of good young Ds. Plenty of interesting potential picks.

Demidov, Lindstrom, Iginla, Catton, Dickinson, Buium, Parekh, Silayev.

Just pick one of those 8 and I'll be a happy camper.

I'm not a doctor, I just play one on the internet.

But I can understand why some people are leery about drafting Lidstrom based on the news on his back. We already have Kirby Dach, we don't need another injury issue. If there's any risk whatsoever, I'd rather we go in a different direction. There are tons of players to choose from here.

 

[le_sean]

It was a hypothetical scout statement where I wanted a pretend GM to make a decision on the report. A BPA vs Need decision in a waive of talent.

Who are you picking if you are the GM and getting this report. The stable top 4D or the top 6F with top line upside. Who's BPA for you in this case and you are on a team like the Habs that needs to add forwards.

If the scout gave you that same report, who are you picking and why?

I think BPA is a notion that’s been thrown out the window since more and more players start contributing by the age of 18-19 these days, along with the salary cap which prevents teams from simply plugging current holes by throwing money around.

 

[Garbageyuk]

Nope, not at all. Sell Nurse and you'll see a first rounder. Did you look at the competition for Nurse? There's a defensive D hole between 25 and 30, that's why everybody is drafting them like crazy right now.

Utah has all the cap space in the world, and I assume they will go from a bottom spending team to adding quite a bit of cap hit this summer. Nurse does make them much better. And Lavoie is ready to play in the NHL next year. They would also be in on Guentzel I assume.

Then I said Nurse+ it will be costly for Edmonton given the contract, goal would be to promote Broberg and 3 team- a replacement for Ceci (the 6h overall being the transitional piece). Might cost them another roster player, Lavoie + picks.

Lots of team will come knocking for 6th overall, but there's not that many Ds that fit the bill here. Unless they get a big forward instead, they need size at all positions pretty much.

Nurse has negative value. It’s ludicrous to think he’d return anything, and that the Oilers wouldn’t have to pay (assets or retention, likely both) to get rid of him.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Not sure who's the right pick, if Demidov is there you gotta take him. however if we had picked michkov or leornard last year instead of a freaking defensive D in reibacher then we wouldnt have this problem right now. It doesn't even make sense to me how they didn't know that this year's draft class was filled with great Defensemen. Now we will pick for need once again and the cycle continues

What problem?

There's a slew of players here who we can pick from. The best RD is going to be gone before we pick and it affects nothing. Us taking RB last year doesn't open the door for us to take an LD... we're already stacked there.

 

[WeThreeKings]

I've seen talk about CBJ warming up to him quite a bit lately. Not sure if it's founded or not though, but I don't see why they would not be.

Mathias Brunet's argument is that CBJ want a star player, no matter the position; it does make sense in my opinion. In which case Demidov would be their most probable pick.

I did believe that Demidov might have fallen to 5 earlier this month and maybe I'm being pessimistic, but I don't see it anymore from what I'm reading and the player's profile.

Basu just said Columbus didn't seem all that interested in Demidov.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Again, I have lots to say on this but let's save this for another thread.

Suffice it to say that I'm happy with our direction and I'm looking forward to the draft. There's little consensus on who goes where so it will be interesting. No matter who we draft I'll be happy with it. Management and scouting have earned that from me. In a short period of time they've collected some excellent prospects.

I'll be happy if it's one of Demidov, Dickenson, Iggy

A little less happy with Lindstrom and Catton. Still content though

A puzzled look on my face if we take Sennecke 5th.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Sure, and Sennecke has shown nothing to indicate he’s even on the same level as the guys he gets lumped in with on here.

How many guys have the points/goals that Eiserman does? Where's Eiserman being drafted?

It's about potential and likelyhood of hitting potential. Sennecke was a late riser and had a huge growth spurt. He may not have the pedigree of others but it's about his POTENTIAL.

I'm not arguing for him btw, but I totally get why teams would want to take him. I'd love to have a big huge forward to go with with we have. Lindstrom's back might be a concern so if you want an alternate, this might be the guy.

Again though, totally happy if we take Demidov, Lindstrom, Iggy... I'll trust the scouts/management.

 

[NotProkofievian]

Is Kent there?

 

[Habs Halifax]

I think BPA is a notion that’s been thrown out the window since more and more players start contributing by the age of 18-19 these days, along with the salary cap which prevents teams from simply plugging current holes by throwing money around.

I would tend to agree but the need pick from a waive of BPA talent is still at play. Yzerman taking Sieder ahead of Cozens, Zegras, Caufield, Knight is an example of that.

Why did you think we took Reinbacher over Michkov? Do you think it was because Reinbacher is a RD that fills a hole quicker than Michkov fills a forward spot (KHL contract)? Or because they considered them close to equal and they decided to go for need at RD?

 

[Hacketts]

Is Kent there?

Yes

 

[Habs Halifax]

Sure, and Sennecke has shown nothing to indicate he’s even on the same level as the guys he gets lumped in with on here. I’m not buying the hype at all. He’s one of those prospects where people try to convince you to look past both what you see on the ice and tangible results. KK was another one like that. A lot of this board drank the Kool-Aid on that one too, just like they’re doing here.

I see Sennecke as having middle-six upside, if everything goes well. That means he could be anywhere from a 3rd liner to a solid 2nd liner. I’m not seeing high end upside at all. He has no elite skills or attributes, and plenty of flaws in his game. Even his much hyped “hands” are just good, not great or elite.

Tell me what he’s done to separate himself from guys like Connelly, Hage, Luchanko, Greentree, Boisvert, etc, all of whom are ranked by most lists in the 16-17 to ~25 range. I’d take a few of guys over Sennecke no problem. Those are his cohorts, not Iginla, Catton, Eiserman - and certainly not Lindstrom or Demidov.

I agree with you on this. I really like Sennecke but only if I had the 10th or 11th pick. I think his trend or movement is being pushed up a bit too much.

He's got great size and very good hands with a great shot. But yeah, I have top 6F potential with him. Very low odds he becomes a top line forward.

Very curious to see where Bob has both Iggy and Sennecke in his final rankings. In May, Iggy was 10th and Sennecke was 14th. If Sennecke has rose that much, it will be reflected on Bob's list.

 

[le_sean]

I would tend to agree but the need pick from a waive of BPA talent is still at play. Yzerman taking Sieder ahead of Cozens, Zegras, Caufield, Knight is an example of that.

Why did you think we took Reinbacher over Michkov? Do you think it was because Reinbacher is a RD that fills a hole quicker than Michkov fills a forward spot (KHL contract)? Or because they considered them close to equal and they decided to go for need at RD?

There’s a lot of factors in these decisions. I think the one with Reinbacher over Michkov is based on interviews (character), control of his development (came to NA quickly), and position scarcity.

Obviously there’s a point where BPA supersedes need, like if the Sharks already had two good young centres, they still obviously take Celebrini. But when it’s fairly close, you take the need.

Like in this draft, I think you take the forward at 5. Unless you truly don’t believe in Guhle, Hutson, Xhekaj, Engstrom, Struble, Harris. You’d think at least two of them pan out to become really good.

 

[Habs Halifax]

There’s a lot of factors in these decisions. I think the one with Reinbacher over Michkov is based on interviews (character), control of his development (came to NA quickly), and position scarcity.

Obviously there’s a point where BPA supersedes need, like if the Sharks already had two good young centres, they still obviously take Celebrini. But when it’s fairly close, you take the need.

Yes, we see this close. I find in this next draft, there is lots of talk about the D but I see waives in both the F and D groups. I could eat crow but this forward group is not full of a bunch of Zadina's. Lots to like with Demi

If there was a clear BPA at 5 and it was a D, this Habs fan base would be talking about it. Like a can't miss guy. However, you hear all kinds of names so is there a sure shot BPA for D at 5? I don't believe so.

 

[SOLR]

Nurse has negative value. It’s ludicrous to think he’d return anything, and that the Oilers wouldn’t have to pay (assets or retention, likely both) to get rid of him.

No....not at all.
Name me one player of that age, in that style of play, with that physicality, with that shot blocking.

Of course if you didn't know the cohort you'd think he has negative value. But the only guys in his Cohort are
1) Dougie Hamilton (not moving)
2) Parayko (not moving)
3) Seth Jones. (declining fast)

Then if you go 1 level down you get

1) Trouba (Rangers fans don't want him either)
2) Provorov (Not as big or physical)
3) Hampus Lindholm (not moving)

1 degree younger you get
1) McAvoy (F-ing not moving)
2) Sergachev (F-ing not moving)
3) Dahlin (F F - not moving)
4) Pelech (not moving
5) Hanifin (not moving)
6) Ferraro (not moving)
7) Lindgren (not moving)

On Hfboards players get exposed as overvalued and they go in negative value. Come on.
Yes Savard would be a good option for Edmonton , but Savard is probably worth a 1st at the deadline to play 5th D, ideally.


This explains why the cohort we see in the draft this year, is so over-ranked, it's because their trade value is incredibly high right now.

Hell, 34 years old Ryan McDonagh just fetched a 2nd rounder. Nurse has a good 5 more years ahead of him. All overpaid, but at some point others will catch up to that salary.

 

[Garbageyuk]

Slowly but surely, it's becoming Iginla vs Sennecke.

Habs management....good luck. Don't f*** this up.

Pretty much just on HF Habs, and it’s because a large number of people here still listen to a certain loud-mouthed buffoon for reasons I’ll never understand. The guy has been pumping his tires hard, just like he did with Laine (Laine over Matthews ), Puljujarvi, Kotkaniemi, McLeod (3rd overall ), Dylan Strome, and credit where credit is due, Slafkovsky. Like I’ve said before, he’s going milk the Slafkovsky thing for another decade lmao. The guy also had Kristian Vesalainen ranked 3rd overall in 2017 . Sennecke is his guy this year.

 

[red devil]

Yes

Is there any confirmation as the only GM's that have seen attending right now are Davidson, Verbeek and Conroy. There are 40 plus scouts at the camp so the Habs are most likely represented.

 

[Jaynki]

Teams do draft for need but when they do, they still think it's BPA or in a waive of talent. That's my point.

Yzerman took Seider ahead of Cozens, Zegras, Caufield, Boldy, Knight. Seider was like Reinbacher. A RD who was trending well and crept into the 5-10 mix.

Who's the BPA (using hindsight) from that list? I find that difficult to pick. Hence why Yzerman might have taken the RD and why the Habs took Reinbacher last draft.

I personally don't think teams list them one after another like you see on the internet. I believe it's much more deeper in context and there are BPA waives of talent.

Position, size and shooting right are important when determining BPA because we all know D with size and C with size are scarce and comes with a huge premium when available, even more when they shoot right.

They are important in individually determining who is BPA. But again, that is not related to drafting with actual teams needs or in function of next year draft. Those are distraction.

I acknowledge team will give an importance to needs especially when two players are in the same waive of talent. But when drafting top 5 or top 10, its all about pure upside. The rest is distraction.

Tho, at a certain stage, i hope we throw darts on a plethora of forward. But not at 5OV, it should not be a criteria there.

Is there any confirmation as the only GM's that have seen attending right now are Davidson, Verbeek and Conroy. There are 40 plus scouts at the camp so the Habs are most likely represented.

Dont take anything in that.

We are one of the few teams who scouted Demidov live and had contact with him.

There will also be other moment to interview and meet him.

 

[Hacketts]

Is there any confirmation as the only GM's that have seen attending right now are Davidson, Verbeek and Conroy. There are 40 plus scouts at the camp so the Habs are most likely represented.

"The pre-draft Showcase starts today in Florida, where prospect Ivan Demidov will be present.

The Habs' management will also be there (to meet him).

Very eager to read more and also to know Demidov's exact measurements!" - Marc-Olivier Beaudoin

I read somewhere Kent was seen in Florida yesterday.