HF Habs: 2024 NHL Draft Thread

[Garbageyuk]

What I can't get over with Sennecke is that if he ends up being a successful NHLer, you're pretty much banking on him learning to play a game he doesn't play in the juniors.

So it's not as much about tangible upside, it's about the upside you imagine he COULD have IF he plays like you think he CAN play.

That's a lot of ifs.

I just think it's not just about pure upside, it's about the likelyhood the guy you pick reaches his upside.

A guy might really well be perceived as having a lower upside, but higher odds to reach it.

At this point what do you do when you're a team with absolutely nothing in the pipeline up front?

My common sense tells me you play the odds.

That’s a good way to put it. For me, his upside just isn’t high enough to justify the risk higher in the round.

I’m not even sure if I’d take him if he was somehow still there at 26. There are enough quality prospects there to make it interesting for sure - along with the guys I mentioned previously, there’s guys like Artamanov and Hemming that should be available in that range. Both safer, imo, with similar upside.

If you want to take a risk on a boom or bust type, I’d be more inclined to go with one of Parascak or Letourneau at 26, rather than Sennecke earlier in the round. Both those guys have way higher upside than Sennecke, with comparable risk in the case of Parascak.

With Parascak, only one area needs serious work. That’s not the case with Sennecke, who probably plays the most junior style game of anyone we’ve talked about here, apart from Letourneau.

Letourneau, yeah he’s more risky, but he’ll be available near the end of round 1, and if he hits, the upside is sky high.

All in all, Sennecke is a first round talent, but I’m not seeing the hype he’s getting and he’s not my cup of tea. There are just too many other good or better options. He really does have a strange risk/upside (and hype) profile.

 

[Jaynki]

How are you calling us a contender without a 1c and finishing last in the East in 2011-12? lol.

I agree he should of been more aggressive, but looking at everything in hindsight to what the actually reality was are two different things.

Well a contender was too strong of a terms but he inherited a f***ing core.

Norris level D. Franchise G. All U23. Perennial 35G scorer Pac. Markov, Eller, Plek, Gallagher, top 3 picks, two buy out.

I mean, compared to the books full of burden he gaves his successor.

 

[Whitesnake]

Slowly but surely, it's becoming Iginla vs Sennecke.

Habs management....good luck. Don't f*** this up.

 

[Habs Halifax]

The misconception about BPA is astounding. BPA isn't about my list. Your list. Or anybody's list. BPA could ONLY be about 2 things only.

As far as we, THE FANS, are concerned, it's about consensus. Not just the McKenzie list. But taking every public list out there and put them together. Take elite prospects that tells me what most lists are having any kids.They even have a consolidated rankings. But for example, Dean Letourneau could be a fine prospect. But does anybody has him top 5? Does picking him top 5 reads BPA or needs? I know, nobody says he will be picked there and he won't....but that's my point about how AS FANS, we can see BPA vs needs. I took Letourneau to prove a point but maybe you could take every player not usually named top 10 and it makes as much sense.

Then, as a TEAM, don't just come and say that you pick this guy because he's a right d-man. That's the opposite to BPA. Now, you can say it's a good pick nonetheless. Fine. What you think of the pick is irrelevant.....but it's NOT what BPA is all about.

BPA is taking the best guy you like that is available when you pick. In a lot of cases, there are waives of talent and teams just don't list one guy after another. It's more like a waive or group of guys ahead of another waive. We just didn't take Reinbacher last year because he was a RD. We took him because he was trending well, had good skating/size and great work ethic. Just so happened to be a RD that we need. It added up.

I really don't care about BPA among fans. Bob has the most credible list but the 32 teams will have a different list. How much variance will their be? Your guess is as good as mine. In this draft from 2-13, I find BPA listing one guy after another is flawed. We all have been digging into this as deep as we can and I'm sure you know the variance between fans and lists you see on the net. This is an indicator that BPA from 2-13 will also vary with the teams IMO.

The real value is establishing your waives of talent but not reaching to push someone like KK up to a waive he really was not in. That to me was a need trap (Center).

 

[Kent Nilsson]

Nope, not at all. Sell Nurse and you'll see a first rounder. Did you look at the competition for Nurse? There's a defensive D hole between 25 and 30, that's why everybody is drafting them like crazy right now.

Then I said Nurse+ it will be costly for Edmonton given the contract, goal would be to promote Broberg and 3 team- a replacement for Ceci (the 6h overall being the transitional piece). Might cost them another roster player, Lavoie + picks.

Nurse barely qualifies at being a defenseman and he’s certainly not a defensive one.

 

[Jaynki]

Slowly but surely, it's becoming Iginla vs Sennecke.

Habs management....good luck. Don't f*** this up.

Cant ignore the D.

It would be on a KK/Tkachuk level incompetence to not consider the D.

There is no forward in this draft aside Celebrini that justify skipping on the six top D.

 

[Milhouse40]

On other site, betting odds for 3rd overall are out
Silayev and Levshunov leading the way.

 

[Habs Halifax]

You don't select a player in function of next year draft. That is lunacy. List change a lot in one year and you dont even have a clue where you will draft.

You pick the best player at your spot. That its. The rest is distraction.

This year, if management believe Buium is the player with the most upside at 5, then you go for him and what we already have is irrelevant in the equation.

Its all about extracting the most value with your pick and the only variable in play is the player you choose/those you misses on. Next year draft, current team needs, depth at a certain position, nothing more than distraction in the scouting and drafting process.

Let me give you a potential scout breakdown and you play GM.

Buium will be a good top 4D at min. Iggy will be a top 6F at min. Iggy has the better chance to be a top line forward vs Buium being a top pairing defenseman.

Top 4D's are worth more than top 6F. Would you agree? If so, how do you manage your decision where the top 6F has a higher chance to reach top line vs the top 4D reaching top pairing.

How do you make your decision with your BPA strategy? Explain

 

[Whitesnake]

Cant ignore the D.

It would be on a KK/Tkachuk level incompetence to not consider the D.

There is no forward in this draft aside Celebrini that justify skipping on the six top D.

I wouldn't. But I'm expecting they would. If a Dickinson is there, you have to consider him so much.

 

[Jaynki]

Let me give you a potential scout breakdown and you play GM.

Buium will be a good top 4D at min. Iggy will be a top 6F at min. Iggy has the better chance to be a top line forward vs Buium being a top pairing defenseman.

Top 4D's are worth more than top 6F. Would you agree? If so, how do you manage your decision where the top 6F had a higher chance to reach top line vs the top 4D reaching top pairing.

How do you make your decision? Explain

It is subjective at this point and both players have a case.

My point from the post you quoted is that "teams current needs" and "next year draft" are not variable to take into account in the process. They are distraction. If that is where you wanted me to cut the cake. (Needing a top 6F more than a top 4D)

If i was a GM and it would come down to these two players, i would define as a group which one we prefer. Character, attitude, resilience, starpower would all be way more important to me than needing a top 6F or having already a plethora of LD.

I wouldn't. But I'm expecting they would. If a Dickinson is there, you have to consider him so much.

I personally expect them to pick a LD way more than discarding the D.

 

[SOLR]

Nurse barely qualifies at being a defenseman and he’s certainly not a defensive one.

In his cohort, he plays PK, defends well on a good day, is in the top 5% for physicality, that would qualify him as a defensive D. Easy to dwell on guys doing stupid things, but that's not the only thing NHL GMs would focus on.

There is a reason he got the A, a no-movement clause (I don't know the details of) and so much $. The amount was stupid, first principle, but Nurse was probably still worth 7m, because of the offer/demand curve in his cohort.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

I love the direction of the current team, I'm on board with them fully. Feels like we're being built the right way on a lot of levels.

My point is that the era before Bergevin was more painful than his reign.

I'd argue the team made the right pick on 3 at the time. It's easy to say now we screwed that up, but the majority of fans wanted Galchenyuk. The prospect pool he inherited was a joke, compared to what HuGo received.

Say what you want, this man also brought us the most exciting Spring we had since 93' with a team that he actually spent his $$.

You're not wrong about him missing the opportunity to turn us into something more, and the fact Carey never got that support over a sustained time is his biggest failure.

Let's save the MB stuff for another thread.

I like where going now. High picks, trading for prospects, good development... exactly what we've been clamouring for. At a minimum, there's a plan in place and they're committed to it. We haven't had that in forever.

 

[Balthazar]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1803092511839166504

 

[le_sean]

Let me give you a potential scout breakdown and you play GM.

Buium will be a good top 4D at min. Iggy will be a top 6F at min. Iggy has the better chance to be a top line forward vs Buium being a top pairing defenseman.

Top 4D's are worth more than top 6F. Would you agree? If so, how do you manage your decision where the top 6F has a higher chance to reach top line vs the top 4D reaching top pairing.

How do you make your decision with your BPA strategy? Explain

I don’t think you can say Zeev Buium is a good top 4D at minimum. I expect him to hit that, but you never know if he just becomes a Tony Deangelo type where he needs to be insulated and force fed PP time to contribute to a team. He doesn’t really have the physical attributes or defensive game to say that his floor is 2nd pairing. Dickinson would be a better example here.

 

[Habs Halifax]

It is subjective at this point and both players have a case.

My point from the post you quoted is that teams current needs and next year draft are not variable to take into account in the process. They are distraction.

If i was a GM and it would come down to these two players, i would define as a group which one we prefer. Character, attitude, resilience, starpower would all be way more important to me than needing a top 6F or having already a plethora of LD.

Teams do draft for need but when they do, they still think it's BPA or in a waive of talent. That's my point.

Yzerman took Seider ahead of Cozens, Zegras, Caufield, Boldy, Knight. Seider was like Reinbacher. A RD who was trending well and crept into the 5-10 mix.

Who's the BPA (using hindsight) from that list? I find that difficult to pick. Hence why Yzerman might have taken the RD and why the Habs took Reinbacher last draft.

I personally don't think teams list them one after another like you see on the internet. I believe it's much more deeper in context and there are BPA waives of talent.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

The great core we had in 2013 was backed up by a very poor prospect pool. The miscalculation was we should have moved Pleky and Markov for more futures. NO, we decided to move forward with holes in key places and not much depth to support it. This was the Leafs problem too. Great core but horrible depth. This will gain momentum in the regular season but not for the playoffs.

Bergevin was hired for the 2012 summer. In the 4 years prior, Habs had 8 top 100 picks (Brutal). Yeah, we had Price, Subban, Patch, Gallagher and with the 3rd OA (Chucky). Then vets like Pleky and Markov. Where is the center? Galchenyuk?

Again, I have lots to say on this but let's save this for another thread.

Suffice it to say that I'm happy with our direction and I'm looking forward to the draft. There's little consensus on who goes where so it will be interesting. No matter who we draft I'll be happy with it. Management and scouting have earned that from me. In a short period of time they've collected some excellent prospects.

 

[Habs Halifax]

I don’t think you can say Zeev Buium is a good top 4D at minimum. I expect him to hit that, but you never know if he just becomes a Tony Deangelo type where he needs to be insulated and force fed PP time to contribute to a team. He doesn’t really have the physical attributes or defensive game to say that his floor is 2nd pairing. Dickinson would be a better example here.

It was a hypothetical scout statement where I wanted a pretend GM to make a decision on the report. A BPA vs Need decision in a waive of talent.

Who are you picking if you are the GM and getting this report. The stable top 4D or the top 6F with top line upside. Who's BPA for you in this case and you are on a team like the Habs that needs to add forwards.

If the scout gave you that same report, who are you picking and why?

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Then we'll get Lindstrom. No biggie.

I don't get the doom and gloom based on what? One inch and a back injury about which most NHL teams have probably known about for weeks?

There's no need to make things difficult. Lindstrom, Demidov or Iginla is going to be there at 5, as well as a plethora of good young Ds. Plenty of interesting potential picks.

Demidov, Lindstrom, Iginla, Catton, Dickinson, Buium, Parekh, Silayev.

Just pick one of those 8 and I'll be a happy camper.

I'm not a doctor, I just play one on the internet.

But I can understand why some people are leery about drafting Lidstrom based on the news on his back. We already have Kirby Dach, we don't need another injury issue. If there's any risk whatsoever, I'd rather we go in a different direction. There are tons of players to choose from here.

 

[le_sean]

It was a hypothetical scout statement where I wanted a pretend GM to make a decision on the report. A BPA vs Need decision in a waive of talent.

Who are you picking if you are the GM and getting this report. The stable top 4D or the top 6F with top line upside. Who's BPA for you in this case and you are on a team like the Habs that needs to add forwards.

If the scout gave you that same report, who are you picking and why?

I think BPA is a notion that’s been thrown out the window since more and more players start contributing by the age of 18-19 these days, along with the salary cap which prevents teams from simply plugging current holes by throwing money around.

 

[Garbageyuk]

Nope, not at all. Sell Nurse and you'll see a first rounder. Did you look at the competition for Nurse? There's a defensive D hole between 25 and 30, that's why everybody is drafting them like crazy right now.

Utah has all the cap space in the world, and I assume they will go from a bottom spending team to adding quite a bit of cap hit this summer. Nurse does make them much better. And Lavoie is ready to play in the NHL next year. They would also be in on Guentzel I assume.

Then I said Nurse+ it will be costly for Edmonton given the contract, goal would be to promote Broberg and 3 team- a replacement for Ceci (the 6h overall being the transitional piece). Might cost them another roster player, Lavoie + picks.

Lots of team will come knocking for 6th overall, but there's not that many Ds that fit the bill here. Unless they get a big forward instead, they need size at all positions pretty much.

Nurse has negative value. It’s ludicrous to think he’d return anything, and that the Oilers wouldn’t have to pay (assets or retention, likely both) to get rid of him.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Not sure who's the right pick, if Demidov is there you gotta take him. however if we had picked michkov or leornard last year instead of a freaking defensive D in reibacher then we wouldnt have this problem right now. It doesn't even make sense to me how they didn't know that this year's draft class was filled with great Defensemen. Now we will pick for need once again and the cycle continues

What problem?

There's a slew of players here who we can pick from. The best RD is going to be gone before we pick and it affects nothing. Us taking RB last year doesn't open the door for us to take an LD... we're already stacked there.

 

[WeThreeKings]

I've seen talk about CBJ warming up to him quite a bit lately. Not sure if it's founded or not though, but I don't see why they would not be.

Mathias Brunet's argument is that CBJ want a star player, no matter the position; it does make sense in my opinion. In which case Demidov would be their most probable pick.

I did believe that Demidov might have fallen to 5 earlier this month and maybe I'm being pessimistic, but I don't see it anymore from what I'm reading and the player's profile.

Basu just said Columbus didn't seem all that interested in Demidov.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Again, I have lots to say on this but let's save this for another thread.

Suffice it to say that I'm happy with our direction and I'm looking forward to the draft. There's little consensus on who goes where so it will be interesting. No matter who we draft I'll be happy with it. Management and scouting have earned that from me. In a short period of time they've collected some excellent prospects.

I'll be happy if it's one of Demidov, Dickenson, Iggy

A little less happy with Lindstrom and Catton. Still content though

A puzzled look on my face if we take Sennecke 5th.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Sure, and Sennecke has shown nothing to indicate he’s even on the same level as the guys he gets lumped in with on here.

How many guys have the points/goals that Eiserman does? Where's Eiserman being drafted?

It's about potential and likelyhood of hitting potential. Sennecke was a late riser and had a huge growth spurt. He may not have the pedigree of others but it's about his POTENTIAL.

I'm not arguing for him btw, but I totally get why teams would want to take him. I'd love to have a big huge forward to go with with we have. Lindstrom's back might be a concern so if you want an alternate, this might be the guy.

Again though, totally happy if we take Demidov, Lindstrom, Iggy... I'll trust the scouts/management.

 

[NotProkofievian]

Is Kent there?