HF Habs: 2024 NHL Draft Thread

[WeThreeKings]

I'd argue the detractors for Lindstrom and Sennecke being a venn diagram overlap of Slaf deniers, feels like we might be on the right track for the right selection.

 

[WinterLion]

Brilliant. Not agreeing with everyone and not being blindly happy at virtually any possible pick we can make, makes me an unhappy person. Have you got other pearls of widsom like this that I can learn about myself?



Here's pretty much my whole take; While others have said that I have a "favorite player" for the Habs to take, it's simply not true. I really like Iginla, but would not be disappointed with any of him, Lindstrom, Demidov or Catton to be honest.

It's more about seeing way too many red flags about Sennecke than absolutely wanting this team to pick a particular player.

First, on the "uneducated" side of things;

It was reported as recently as this month, that at some point in time in the last year, there were concerns about his attitude and off-ice behavior from several scouts. Scott Wheeler went as far as saying most scouts speaking about him were often letting out a huge sigh, and feeling puzzled about what to actually think about the guy.

Then, there's an obvious lack of production. If a guy has hands that are as good as his, you'd expect him to show that in some way, shape or form, it allows him to distance himself from the pack and dominate. This is what happened with Lindstrom in the games he played, this is what happened with Iginla at many points in the season, same with Catton and even Demidov in the MHL. What you see here is a guy who struggled performing any better than 1 PPG in the OHL, and who "randomly" picked it up after being paired with Calum Ritchie. People are saying that it's because "he's growing in his body", which in my opinion is overstated and a load of b.s. I just don't buy it. It might have an impact, absolutely. But not to the extent that the jump in production between his D-1 and D year is almost nonexistant. Not even close. I think people are quick to buy on that.

There is also the fact that this guy is nowhere near as high on any projected list, and that the other fanbases don't seem to view the guy with the same enthousiasm as some here do.

So first, I read all of that. But still kept seeing how high some people were on the guy. So I decided to forge my own opinion and actually watch some of his shift-by-shift.

I tried to like the guy. I really did. The fact is that he's a lanky player with an odd skating style, who's trying to deke every opponent one-on-one like 95% of the time, and who doesn't exactly strike you as a fast player. His involvement away from the puck is also worrysome to say the least. And it's not just in the defensive zone. In the offensive zone he's often extremely passive, waiting for the puck to come to his stick instead of actively looking to get in the open. He's not particularly good at opening passing lanes. He's very often caught cheating at the opposing blueline. And most of the highlight goals he scores are just not projectable in the NHL. He's just an awkard player. The dekes he pulls off that end up being goals are spectacular, but there are very few of them I envision working against guys like Trouba or McAvoy. Guy is going to get murdered. There's also the fact that for his size, his strength is pretty darn worrysome. Guy falls on his ass most of the time he goes in the corner.

So yeah. You look at all that, and I think it is extremely short-sighted to suggest that he isn't the likeliest prospect to bust out of all the discussed group at 5.

Which, then again, would be perfectly fine if you're an organization with a ton of good forward prospects, and willing to swing for the fences with little to lose. At this point, I'd be all ears, would actually welcome the organization I'm cheering for to go with a high-risk, high-reward pick, and hope for the best.

But we're not this organization. We have absolutely NOTHING in the pipeline up front. Filip Mesar's lack of improvement is beyond concerning. Joshua Roy I won't even get into what I think of the guy, because I'll still get told that I'm "full of shit". And Owen Beck is not projected to be a top-6 forward. So this is pretty much a can't-miss pick for the organization.

Could Sennecke become a better player than Iginla? There's a possibility. Everything is possible. But he's a darn more risky pick. And I'm not the only one saying it. Most lists have him as low as mid-first round.

I think a lot of people high on Sennecke are trying to play 4D chess and convince themselves that this would be a great pick. This would be a "jury is still out pick", and I'm not sure we can afford that. People will probably come up and tell me "he's not any riskier than any of the other prospects". Which is not true. People will say "offensive numbers don't matter", but in the end, the guys who ended up becoming star forwards in the NHL after struggling to hit a PPG in the CHL on their draft year are very far and few between. You can come up with Scheifele all you want, he's not exactly the most common scenario.

Call it "Kotkaniemi derangement syndrom" if you want. I don't care. In my opinion there's no world in which Iginla is not a safer pick than Sennecke. And even a rather "boom-or-bust" type of pick like Lindstrom is safer, because of how natural and effortless his style looks and feels. And mainly because he's shown that he's a dominant player pretty much 100% of the games he played this season.

I also am tired of the ongoing notion that St. Louis is some kind of hockey coach version of "The dog whisperer" who magically transforms hockey players into superstars. I think this reputation is overdone. As is the one that suggests the organization as a whole now "knows how to develop players". I don't think there's enough evidence to suggest this yet.

You have some fair points for sure. I do understand the stats concerns, but I wouldn't really say Iginlas stats are that much more impressive. The attitude thing is definitely scary, but it seems like the Habs under Hughes have really targeted hard working guys, so if it is true they likely won't take him. Sennecke really progressed as the year went on... but Iginla certainly stepped up when things mattered. I would be more excited by Iginla even though I do feel like the upside is not quite as high.... I think he will help teams win and those types are always my favs.

I guess we will see on draft day. I honestly wouldn't be shocked by much after pick #1.

 

[sampollock]

I'd argue the detractors for Lindstrom and Sennecke being a venn diagram overlap of Slaf deniers, feels like we might be on the right track for the right selection.

between the 2 which one you figure?? I am leaning Sennecke, a gut feel KH may surprise us

 

[WeThreeKings]

between the 2 which one you figure?? I am leaning Sennecke, a gut feel KH may surprise us

Lindstrom if the back is fine.

Also Hawks board is saying they're hearing more chatter of Dickinson at 2

 

[Angler]

It would be nice to get a forward, but I just hope that they draft whoever they think will be the best player in the future, regardless of position. If its a defense, even a left defense, I'd be okay with it. On the other hand, it would be interesting is Demidov is available at 5...

 

[sampollock]

Lindstrom if the back is fine.

Also Hawks board is saying they're hearing more chatter of Dickinson at 2

crazy... these D are all over the place

 

[Jaynki]

Lindstrom if the back is fine.

Also Hawks board is saying they're hearing more chatter of Dickinson at 2

Dickinson at 2
Levshunov at 3
Silayev at 4

A real strong possibility imo. Team will value these top pair D a lot.

Dickinson is such a f***ing stud no way he is available at 5.

 

[WinterLion]

I haven’t bought them in a while but I’m hearing good things about The Black Book, very exhaustive and probably exhausting all at once.

I bought Kyle Woodlief’s draft guide a couple of years back. Ordered the paper version only to find out it was printed on red sheets, that made it a chore to read.

On the positive side, Woodlief is a caring guy and he’ll respond if you write him. And his comments and takes are a lot of fun to read and are nothing like you’re used to. He even throws some humor in there.

On the downside, it was expensive for the few pages I got, don’t know if it’s changed.

If you buy Woodlief’s Red Line draft guide, take the online version and print it yourself.

Is Redline still available? I'll get that... it's always fun.

 

[McGuires Corndog]

Le man mountain 2.0

What a gorgeous young man. Chadkovsky vibes

 

[WinterLion]

Dickinson is a stud. I think he's gone before we pick... and if he's there the phone will be ringing!

Dickinson at 2
Levshunov at 3
Silayev at 4

A real strong possibility imo. Team will value these top pair D a lot.

Dickinson is such a f***ing stud no way he is available at 5.

Ha you just said the same thing ooops!

 

[Sam de Mtl]

What a gorgeous young man. Chadkovsky vibes

Montréal is prepping for prettiest team. He is the pick 100%!

 

[salbutera]

 

[A Loyal Demidog]

Let’s trade Matheson + 26th OV for NJD’s 10th OV. Then, we trade Caufield + CGY 2025 1st for 11th OV + Benson (or Quinn).

We likely draft Demidov/Lindstrom, Sennecke, and Catton.

 

[Benstheman]

I think there will be 3 picks available for trade between 10 and 15.

NJ 10
Buffalo 11
Minnesota 13

 

[BergevinBurner]

Let’s trade Matheson + 26th OV for NJD’s 10th OV. Then, we trade Caufield for 11th OV + ???

We likely draft Demidov/Lindstrom, Sennecke, and Catton.

I can't see them doing that, it'd send us into a nose dive for the next few seasons and you could see a "losing culture" setting in.

Even though we could likely get some solid players at 10th and 11th they probably won't be ready to make an impact for another few years.

 

[Benstheman]

Let’s trade Matheson + 26th OV for NJD’s 10th OV. Then, we trade Caufield + CGY 2025 1st for 11th OV + Benson (or Quinn).

We likely draft Demidov/Lindstrom, Sennecke, and Catton.

I think Minnesota is better target to trade Matheson to.

Matheson + Colorado 2nd for 13OA.

 

[A Loyal Demidog]

I think there will be 3 picks available for trade between 10 and 15.

NJ 10
Buffalo 11
Minnesota 13

Man, if we can get all 3 picks and draft Demidov, Catton, Sennecke, and Connelly haha. I’m dreaming but it’s nice to dream.

 

[Sam de Mtl]

Let's give Suzuki and 26 for 10 overall.

Because you know, at draft time all logic goes out of the window and proven players are worthless in comparison to the precious picks.

Trading Caufield for a middle pick, come on fellas...

 

[GlassesJacketShirt]

Let’s trade Matheson + 26th OV for NJD’s 10th OV. Then, we trade Caufield + CGY 2025 1st for 11th OV + Benson (or Quinn).

We likely draft Demidov/Lindstrom, Sennecke, and Catton.

Damn you giving up Caufield just like that?

Disloyal

 

[Andrei79]

I would love for Hughes to trade up to number 2 only to draft Helenius.

It would be like a dream scenario.

The absolute chaos on these boards would be incredible.

 

[A Loyal Demidog]

Damn you giving up Caufield just like that?

Disloyal

I love Caufield, but getting a top prospect AND Benson is hella inciting.

Let's give Suzuki and 26 for 10 overall.

Because you know, at draft time all logic goes out of the window and proven players are worthless in comparison to the precious picks.

Trading Caufield for a middle pick, come on fellas...

Ah yes, Suzuki and Caufield are the same, and Benson + 11th overall is worthless.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Let’s trade Matheson + 26th OV for NJD’s 10th OV. Then, we trade Caufield + CGY 2025 1st for 11th OV + Benson (or Quinn).

We likely draft Demidov/Lindstrom, Sennecke, and Catton.

Stop posting before you hurt yourself.

 

[Ozmodiar]

I would love for Hughes to trade up to number 2 only to draft Helenius.

It would be like a dream scenario.

The absolute chaos on these boards would be incredible.

That would be Konsta Hilarious on HFB!

 

[Genghis Keon]

If you definite the parameters more closely I would be inclined to look into it but I tend to have a problem of fixating on a topic or player and it tends to piss people off. I'm staying away from talking about Lindstrom specifically but I welcome you to look into their pre-draft sh% and their NHL career sh% and see if there is any connection between success and failure and the delta in the %.

You seem (or at least seemed) to have a strong opinion about goals to assists ratios. Cayden Lindstrom aside, I was interested if you had done any analysis or had any historical context that led you to that opinion. I think there's value in that kind of analysis and discussion. Everyone has an opinion, but not everyone shows their work on how they came to their opinion. To me at least it's the posts that back up their opinions that are the most interesting and valuable (at least as much as there's value in anything we discuss on a message board dedicated to hockey prospects ).

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Damn you giving up Caufield just like that?

Disloyal

I sentence him to three Hail Marys and a promise to never do it again.