HF Habs: 2024 NHL Draft Thread

[Mrb1p]

No because Parekh's stock didn't rise because of his recent performance at the Mem Cup. Recency bias is more Exposure bias. People didn't watch a certain amounts of prospects, then when they are seen on a more mainstream platform, then you can see what they are and if they project to be good.

Zeev Buium, tremendous run in NCAA Championship. When it was the NCAA frozen four and Championship, his stock rose like crazy. It's not recency bias, but just exposure that people didn't get to see him. Same with Dickinson. It's an opportunity to showcase themselves.

That's just because of the bias Dickinson benefits from.

 

[Hannibal]

Interesting tidbit on Basu/Godin

They were talking about the combine and Godin was saying, we don't know enough yet to say oh well they prefer Iginla to Sennecke for example.

Basu misheard Godin as if he said they prefer Iginla to Sennecke and Basu jumped on it and seemed to indicate that the sense he got was it was the other way around and that the small man skill in the big frame is something this front office and scouting staff is very high on.

They also mentioned how important Lindstroms health was to them.

Basu pushed back against the notion Demidov won't be there at 5, too.

Really feels like Demidov-Lindstrom-Sennecke is the order where we are sitting today.

Sennecke over Iginla… j’ai mon voyage

 

[TCIH]

I think Demidov is taken before 5, so

I want them to take Iginla at 5 and be happy about it.

 

[austin316]

Sennecke over Lindstrom? Yikes

 

[SannywithoutCompy]

Beaudoin is very likely in that 22-32 range. He's a late 1st rounder or really early 2nd rounder.

This is a ridiculous draft. Lol

I like Blais and I'm looking for Montreal to take him with one of our 3rd round picks.

Beaudoin is a beaut but I get Girgensons vibes from him.

Sennecke over Lindstrom? Yikes

Really not that ridiculous an idea. Sennecke is raw and still getting used to his frame, but if you have faith in our development team, he would be an absolute home run swing.

 

[NobleSix]

If Blackhawks take anyone other than Demidov I can see Hughes making a trade with the Ducks to get him if Ducks themselves aren't interested in him.

Unfortunately I think if he's there at 4 the Jackets take him.

 

[crosbyshow]

I just can't see the Hawks passing on Demidov...impossible...no matter how good Dickinson is..

Demidov is thr best passer of this draft just before Catton.. He is a lefty and Bedard is a deadly right hand scorer.

..and Bedard is alone up front right now

Those 2 could be the most dynamic duo in the NHL soon

 

[SlafySZN]

Sennecke over Lindstrom? Yikes

Not sure they said over Lindstrom. Just that the odds goes to Sennecke over a guy like Iginla.

It’s gonna be clearer at the combine i would guess. With Lindstrom doing the physical tests and the teams being sure his back is gonna be alright. Maybe Lindstrom gets drafted before the habs, we don’t know.

 

[The Great Weal]

Hah come on man, you truncated that post. I mention the paragraph before that I think he can be a top pair D, I'm not saying he's a top 5D in the league. I also there are parts of his game, obviously not all of it. A Lindholm type with Guhles speed is fantastic. It's a player that would have parts of his game at Heiskanens level .

I didn't mean to make it seem like you were saying he'll become a top 5 dman in the league. I just don't see a lot of things that Guhle does at Heiskanen's level or trending in that direction. In fact, I'm struggling to find one thing a single thing let alone a lot of things lol. Maybe speed but I still think Heiskanen is and will remain the better skater.

Who's who ?

(A) Year one: 22 points
(B) Year one: 16 points
(A) Year two: 22 points
(B) Year two: 19 points

Well see if Guhle can take the next step, but he's pretty much held up to Heiskanen in production at 5v5.

Year three of Miro for bonus: 13 in 55.
Year four of Miro for bonus: 21 in 70.

Let's do another one.

(A): 16 points in 19 games in the WHL playoffs as someone who turned 20 halfway through the season
(B): 26 points in 27 games in the NHL playoffs as someone who turned 20 before the season started

The difference between Miro and Kaiden is powerplay time, so far in their development, unless you want to bicker about age, then sure.

Well age is definitely a factor, but not as much of a factor as the fact that Heiskanen is significantly more creative offensively.

The thing is though, we don't need Miro Heiskanen who's to me, the 3rd, 4th or 5th best D in the league. We need one that gets close to that, Guhle will.

So you think Guhle will be close to leading this team to the finals with 26 points in 27 games like Heiskanen did at 20 years old? If Guhle even becomes a top 10 dman in the league I'll eat crow forever, but again, if he becomes a Lindholm type there is nothing wrong with that. I don't think he's someone that you really want on the PP either so your 5v5 stats don't really say much to me. Esa Lindell had 8 less EV points than Heiskanen this season. Doesn't mean that he's only marginally worse offensively.

 

[G0bias]

If Blackhawks take anyone other than Demidov I can see Hughes making a trade with the Ducks to get him if Ducks themselves aren't interested in him.

Unfortunately I think if he's there at 4 the Jackets take him.

Hopefully that's an option for them. But i'm not holding my breath.

Ducks would have to be sure of who Columbus would take after Demidov. Maybe they turn to whichever D they're targeting, so no dice.

 

[Runner77]

Is this guy orbiting space? Who ever had any doubt that Dickinson’s game is more complete than Parekh’s?

Who even had Parekh so closely ranked with Dickinson that there needed to be a judgment call made about which of these two players ranked ahead of the other?

https://x.com/i/web/status/1797719483043160335

 

[The Great Weal]

Hopefully that's an option for them. But i'm not holding my breath.

Ducks would have to be sure of who Columbus would take after Demidov. Maybe they turn to whichever D they're targeting, so no dice.

Obviously, I have no clue what their preference is, but they could use any of Dickinson/Levshunov/Silayev and at least one of them is guaranteed to be available to them. Of course they might just like one more than the others and don't want to risk anything. That being said, I doubt we'd even trade up as we would just draft whichever of Demidov/Lindstrom is available to us.

 

[Riggins]

If you click on individual players on Elite Prospects you can see a preview shot of their draft guide and I pieced together how their final rankings came out:

1. Celebrini
2. Demidov
3. Lindstrom
4. Levshunov
5. Parekh
6. Iginla
7. Buium
8. Catton
9. Sennecke
10. Dickinson

Helenius and Silayev just outside the top 10.

I enjoy the free video content they put out but treat any rankings with a massive grain of salt until Bob's final list.

 

[RationalExpectations]

Are you serious? You correct Sean because he says we have more than enough d-men. Your counter-argument is that they have little experience and then you mention a d-man who hasn't played a second of the pro game.

That s my point. You don t know what you have. In the list I sent you, maybe only Reinbacher and Guhle will be top 4 Dmen, Buium / Dickinson make it more likely that you have 3 of them.

Don t draft Buium because you have Harris. Same thing as don t draft Tkachuk because you need centers, who needs Sergachev if you can have a dynamic winger ? Remember 2021 : Habs are set for years at center with KK Suzuki Poehling Danault…

 

[G0bias]

Obviously, I have no clue what their preference is, but they could use any of Dickinson/Levshunov/Silayev and at least one of them is guaranteed to be available to them. Of course they might just like one more than the others and don't want to risk anything. That being said, I doubt we'd even trade up as we would just draft whichever of Demidov/Lindstrom is available to us.

Levshunov fills a positional need for the Ducks, but if Chicago takes him I really don't know what they'd be looking at. And if they're comfortable enough taking whichever of Silayev/Dickinson is left.

If Hugo has the chance to secure the first forward on their board and there's considerable separation between their second, a trade up is a no-brainer even if its an overpayment.

 

[McGees]

The thing is though, we don't need Miro Heiskanen who's to me, the 3rd, 4th or 5th best D in the league. We need one that gets close to that, Guhle will.

Unless Matheson keeps cock blocking him on PP1 and playing 30 min/ game.

 

[McGees]

I already forget where I heard it or read it?
Was a 2am on my phone type thing lol.
But Hawks GM Davidson was being asked about getting to see Demidov live at that event being held and obviously it is impossible to tell for sure...but for some reason I didn't get the impression that he was 'their guy' from the interview.

Just a hunch.

 

[Kudo Shinichi]

I think it is premature to see the Habs as a top defensive team. I like Guhle but he has never even played a fully healthy season yet. Struble Harris Xhekaj are likely rather bottom pair Dmen on a good team. Engstrom has top 4 potential but no idea if he ll realize it. Barron is a question mark, I don t think he is as bad as many think but nothing makes me think he is a sure top 4. Mailloux Hutson have played one game in the NHL, Reinbacher not even one. Pick BPA, if Buium is the next Hughes, you don t pass on him because you have a bunch of potential Savard / Zadorov on your team (and I really like those two players as 5Ds)

So let's say the habs draft Buium, and he goes back to college for another year. Hutson, Mailloux, and Reinbacher spends all of next season in the ahl, and the habs use the same dmen as they did last season. The habs finish bottom 5 again, and the best player available when the habs pick (according to public lists) is a defenseman. Should the habs draft that defenseman even though the need is for a forward?

 

[HuGort]

Interesting tidbit on Basu/Godin

They were talking about the combine and Godin was saying, we don't know enough yet to say oh well they prefer Iginla to Sennecke for example.

Basu misheard Godin as if he said they prefer Iginla to Sennecke and Basu jumped on it and seemed to indicate that the sense he got was it was the other way around and that the small man skill in the big frame is something this front office and scouting staff is very high on.

They also mentioned how important Lindstroms health was to them.

Basu pushed back against the notion Demidov won't be there at 5, too.

Really feels like Demidov-Lindstrom-Sennecke is the order where we are sitting today.

Is Lindstrom at combine?

 

[jaffy27]

I get the feeling they go Sennecke over Lindstrom at 5

Very unlikely

Is Lindstrom at combine?

Yes

 

[jaffy27]

I just can't see the Hawks passing on Demidov...impossible...no matter how good Dickinson is..

Demidov is thr best passer of this draft just before Catton.. He is a lefty and Bedard is a deadly right hand scorer.

..and Bedard is alone up front right now

Those 2 could be the most dynamic duo in the NHL soon

Think they’ll prioritize #1 D over #1 Winger

 

[RationalExpectations]

So let's say the habs draft Buium, and he goes back to college for another year. Hutson, Mailloux, and Reinbacher spends all of next season in the ahl, and the habs use the same dmen as they did last season. The habs finish bottom 5 again, and the best player available when the habs pick (according to public lists) is a defenseman. Should the habs draft that defenseman even though the need is for a forward?

Assuming they finish bottom 5 again yes and then you trade one of the Ds once you are sure of which you want to keep, like COL did with Byram, NSH with Jones. That being said if they finish bottom 5 again it means they are betting on the wrong core : Suzuki D +8, CC D+6, Dach D+6, Newhook D+6, Guhle D+5, Barron D+5, Slaf D+3, Harris D+7 Savard veteran bottom pair on a winning team, Matheson veteran top 4D, Montembault NHL caliber goalie, i.e. the problem would be deeper than just another Dman.

 

[HuGort]

I already forget where I heard it or read it?
Was a 2am on my phone type thing lol.
But Hawks GM Davidson was being asked about getting to see Demidov live at that event being held and obviously it is impossible to tell for sure...but for some reason I didn't get the impression that he was 'their guy' from the interview.

Just a hunch.

Next year's draft being weak on defense may affect who Chicago takes at 2. They need help in multiple places.

 

[salbutera]

So let's say the habs draft Buium, and he goes back to college for another year. Hutson, Mailloux, and Reinbacher spends all of next season in the ahl, and the habs use the same dmen as they did last season. The habs finish bottom 5 again, and the best player available when the habs pick (according to public lists) is a defenseman. Should the habs draft that defenseman even though the need is for a forward?

It would be utterly shocking IMO if Hutson sees time in AHL for anything but injury recovery / conditioning stint

 

[Habs Halifax]

So let's say the habs draft Buium, and he goes back to college for another year. Hutson, Mailloux, and Reinbacher spends all of next season in the ahl, and the habs use the same dmen as they did last season. The habs finish bottom 5 again, and the best player available when the habs pick (according to public lists) is a defenseman. Should the habs draft that defenseman even though the need is for a forward?

The dilemma is trying to figure out how many top pairing D and how many top line forwards their are in this draft. I see a lot of talk on the D as BPA but there is likely only 1 or 2 top paring guys. With the forwards, it's the same thing. There is likely only 1 or 2 top line talent. At the end of the day, there is a fair amount of probability that if we take a D, we are taking a top 4D vs a top 6F.

From these 6 guys, Who is Top Pairing, Who is Top 4D, and Who Disappoints?
Silayev
Levshunov
Dickinson
Parekh
Buium
Yakemchuk

From these 7 guys, Who is 1st line, Who is Top 6F, and Who Disappoints?
Demidov
Lindstrom
Iginla
Catton
Helenius
Eiserman
Sennecke

My guess is only Dickinson becomes top pairing and the others are top 4D. Demidov and Iginla are top line talent. The others are either top 4D/Top 6F or busts/disappointments. Yes, that's it, only 3 are hits at the top of the line-up. Include Celebrini and that's 4 hits. Look at the 2018 draft for example.. How many hits or top of the line-up players are there? 4-6? Could there be 6 hits in this top 14? Possible yes but it's not 6+.

Dahlin is like Celebrini. Take them out because we don't have a shot at drafting them. Then we got 3 hits on D... Hughes, Bouchard, Dobson. Forward hits are Svechnikov & Tkachuk. My gut tells me this draft will be similar in terms of how many top line talents their are. I'm going to say 4-6 range. Will their be 4 hits on D? I'll bet against that.