HF Habs: 2024 NHL Draft Thread

[Garbageyuk]

The first 5 spots concerns Hab fans not the top of the draft. In more lists than not that I've seen, there are three forwards in the top 5 spots so I don't know where you got this consensus that 4, maybe even 6, of the d-men are franchise players. If that is the case then the 3 forwards in the top 5 spots must be elite almost generational.

This is where you are misinterpreting. I never said “they are franchise players”. I said that they all have franchise player POTENTIAL, but that they all carry different degrees of risk, i.e., they are all seen as having different likelihoods of reaching that potential/ceiling.

Some people/teams may still opt for a forward over them, even if they do have that POTENTIAL. Like I said, none of this is black and white and it involves nuance and a degree of opinion/subjectivity.

You yourself do not appear to understand that and are seemingly only interested in being right and speaking definitively/in absolutes, when it doesn’t work like that for an upcoming draft.

 

[Vachon23]

Personally, if Demidov or Lindstrom are there you take them but I would have a hard time taking Iginla/Sennecke before Dickinson

 

[Mrb1p]

Dickinson is nice but this is a classic case of recency bias

 

[Garbageyuk]

Personally, if Demidov or Lindstrom are there you take them but I would have a hard time taking Iginla/Sennecke before Dickinson

This is how I’m feeling, except it isn’t just Dickinson; it’s all of Buium, Dickinson, Silayev, Levshunov.

If at 5, Lindstrom, Demidov, or both are still on the board, I’d probably end up picking one of them over the above, even though it’s probably not the smartest idea. We need and have needed elite offensive talent up front for so long that I’d do it, even though I have the above 4 D rated higher.

If both Lindstrom and Demidov are gone though, it’s a no brainer. Just pick one of the above D and rest assured you made the smart and obvious choice, no need to try to get all 4D chess, big brained and make a stupid reach pick for positional need. That’s Timmins MO. None of the other forwards look like they have high end potential.

 

[Vachon23]

This is how I’m feeling, except it isn’t just Dickinson; it’s all of Buium, Dickinson, Silayev, Levshunov.

If at 5, Lindstrom, Demidov, or both are still on the board, I’d probably end up picking one of them over the above, even though it’s probably not the smartest idea. We need and have needed elite offensive talent up front for so long that I’d do it, even though I have the above 4 D rated higher.

If both Lindstrom and Demidov are gone though, it’s a no brainer. Just pick one of the above D and rest assured you made the smart and obvious choice, no need to try to get all 4D chess, big brained and make a stupid reach pick for positional need. That’s Timmins MO. None of the other forwards look like they have high end potential.

At the end of the day, I prefer going with the top pair Dmen then the complimentary top 6 winger even if we have a bigger need for wingers.

It’s not like if we have many top pair upside Dmen. I only see Reinbacher and Guhle with that upside

 

[Mrb1p]

At the end of the day, I prefer going with the top pair Dmen then the complimentary top 6 winger even if we have a bigger need for wingers.

It’s not like if we have many top pair upside Dmen. I only see Reinbacher and Guhle with that upside

Realistically it's more like Alex Tuch and Kreider for Lindholm and Slavin.

They're both of similar value, you can't just add "complimentary winger", it's complimentary winger with size and physical ability for Lindstrom, Iggy and Sennecke.

 

[WeThreeKings]

The calculus is always is the improvement of Dickinson vs Guhle (if there even is any) bigger than the improvement of the forward on basically Gallagher.

Trading a surplus for a need is a nice idea but again it's more rare than people make it out to be.

 

[JoelWarlord]

Realistically it's more like Alex Tuch and Kreider for Lindholm and Slavin.

They're both of similar value, you can't just add "complimentary winger", it's complimentary winger with size and physical ability for Lindstrom, Iggy and Sennecke.

Agree, not to mention that the guys like Parekh/Buium would be directly cannibalizing Hutson's value on the PP, so it's far less clear which player adds more to the team in the aggregate. With Dickinson/Silayev you have a similar issue with cannibalizing Guhle's minutes over the long term as well. It's just not as clear to me that these guys are a huge step above the forwards and historically these kinds of "take BPA and trade for your need" trades don't really materialize that often either.

 

[Vachon23]

Realistically it's more like Alex Tuch and Kreider for Lindholm and Slavin.

They're both of similar value, you can't just add "complimentary winger", it's complimentary winger with size and physical ability for Lindstrom, Iggy and Sennecke.

I prefer having Lindholm/Salvin personally. Those guys are on the ice for almost half of the game and they are a big part of a team controlling the tempo of a game

The calculus is always is the improvement of Dickinson vs Guhle (if there even is any) bigger than the improvement of the forward on basically Gallagher.

Trading a surplus for a need is a nice idea but again it's more rare than people make it out to be.

the other calculus I consider is that’s it’s easier to find winger by trade/UFA then Dmen

 

[Habsfan18]

The Elite Prospects Draft Guide just dropped. 1900 pages!

The Elite Prospects 2024 NHL Draft Guide is available now!

The Elite Prospects 2024 NHL Draft Guide is now available for download with an Elite Prospects Premium subscription!

eprinkside.com

 

[WeThreeKings]

I prefer having Lindholm/Salvin personally. Those guys are on the ice for almost half of the game and they are a big part of a team controlling the tempo of a game

the other calculus I consider is that’s it’s easier to find winger by trade/UFA then Dmen

Sure, but if the analysis by the brass and organization is that they have more than enough defenseman and are comfortable with their trajectories toward their forecasted spots, then you are not really maximizing anything by drafting a defenseman.

Obviously if the defenseman was such an obvious huge upgrade, nobody would turn it down, but for as much as people are beating their chest that Iginla, Buium, Parekh, Dickinson is the BPA now.. just because it is your belief doesn't mean it is commonly held among NHL scouts/teams, nor by the Canadiens.

If we are talking about a clear BPA, then we would see some clear distinction of these guys in draft rankings and Bob's list but we haven't seen that yet and that's probably because the opinion of these guys differ between teams and scouting staffs.

 

[Vachon23]

Sure, but if the analysis by the brass and organization is that they have more than enough defenseman and are comfortable with their trajectories toward their forecasted spots, then you are not really maximizing anything by drafting a defenseman.

The thing is, the organization needs won’t be the same in 3-4 years so we shouldn’t draft anyone with the thinking of we have an organization need for forwards.

Plus, Center/Dmen always have a + value on wingers, if I would take a winger top 5, it’s because that guy will be a game changer what I don’t think either Iginla/Sennecke will be

just because it is your belief doesn't mean it is commonly h

Sure that’s why I said: Personally/I prefer and not we should

 

[The Great Weal]

When I watch Heiskanen, there are a lot of things Guhle does at the same level or that he's trending in that direction.

I'm sorry but I don't see it whatsoever. Heiskanen has dominated all 3 zones for pretty much his whole career and led his team to the Finals as a 20 year old. I think he's got Guhle beat on pretty much everything.

I see Guhle more as a Hampus Lindholm type player and there is nothing wrong with that.

 

[Seb]

I know we need to focus on forwards, but if Yakemchuk somehow falls I hope we trade up and pick him.

Coming out of this draft with Lidstrom/Demidov/Iginla and Yakemchuk would be incredible.

 

[RationalExpectations]

But again, it’s the issue of diminishing returns. Look at the Avalanche. They got Sean Walker, the best defenceman on the market, just to play him on the 3rd pairing. “Oh wow what defensive depth.” It didn’t make them better. Players get out of rhythm, they are not as effective with lower minutes.

So it’s fine and dandy to want someone like Dickinson, thinking the Habs will have the best defence in the league, but playing Guhle 18 mins a game doesn’t make the Habs better. It’s not as simple as saying “this guy gets 100 points a year with 20 mins per game. He’ll get 50 points playing 10 mins per game”. It doesn’t work like that.

We literally have too many defencemen on the current team. That isn’t even counting Hutson, Reinbacher, Mailloux, Engstrom knocking at the door. It’s just asinine to even consider a defenceman. The offence is dogshit. We have one good line and the only reason it’s productive is because they play like 22 mins a game.

Tell Tampa how bad it was to have Sergachev McDonagh Hedman on 3 pairings.

 

[McGees]

I know we need to focus on forwards, but if Yakemchuk somehow falls I hope we trade up and pick him.

Coming out of this draft with Lidstrom/Demidov/Iginla and Yakemchuk would be incredible.

Some think he goes to CBJ at 4.

 

[le_sean]

Tell Tampa how bad it was to have Sergachev McDonagh Hedman on 3 pairings.

What does that have to do with what I said? You named 3 defencemen. I didn’t say “you shouldn’t have 3 good defenders”

 

[Playmaker09]

The D is a mess that needs to be untangled, but that doesn't require a top 5 pick to do.

We already have a shutdown pairing and 1st unit PK in Guhle-Reinbacher and a 1st unit PPQB in Hutson.

So what are you drafting Dickinson or Silayev to do? Play 2nd pair and 2nd unit PK for 21 minutes a night?
Why can't you just sign a Chiarot/Edmundson to do that when the time comes? Or at least try Struble/Xhekaj/Kovacevic/Barron there first?

Tell Tampa how bad it was to have Sergachev McDonagh Hedman on 3 pairings.

Sure but that's ALL they had. Rutta, Shattenkirk and Cernak were complete jabronis. It's not like the reason they had Sergachev on the 3rd pair was because they had some crazy depth, it was just a choice, like it was a choice to have Phil Kessel on the 3rd line in Pittsburgh.

Edmonton and Florida are playing Kulak and Mikkola in their top 4. They're not investing in 4+ defensive anchors either.

 

[Garnet76]

The thing is, the organization needs won’t be the same in 3-4 years so we shouldn’t draft anyone with the thinking of we have an organization need for forwards.

Plus, Center/Dmen always have a + value on wingers, if I would take a winger top 5, it’s because that guy will be a game changer what I don’t think either Iginla/Sennecke will be


Sure that’s why I said: Personally/I prefer and not we should

We have needed centers for almost 30 years. So yes its a need now and down the road. Recycling a rebuild is not a road I want to go down. Whatever dman you draft this year will be an unknown till 300 games played in the league. We don't really know what we have now so adding to the same mix doesn't make sense to me. I don't see a franchise defenceman in this draft to change the rebuold strategy.

 

[le_sean]

Sure but that's ALL they had. Rutta, Shattenkirk and Cernak were complete jabronis. It's not like the reason they had Sergachev on the 3rd pair was because they had some crazy depth, it was just a choice, like it was a choice to have Phil Kessel on the 3rd line in Pittsburgh.

Exactly. In fact it proves my point. They played the shit out of 3 guys and paired them with mediocre players.

 

[MasterMatt25]

The way things are going right now, I see 2 defensemen going in the top 4. Maybe even 3 defensemen consecutively after Celebrini

 

[Vachon23]

We have needed centers for almost 30 years. So yes its a need now and down the road. Recycling a rebuild is not a road I want to go down. Whatever dman you draft this year will be an unknown till 300 games played in the league. We don't really know what we have now so adding to the same mix doesn't make sense to me. I don't see a franchise defenceman in this draft to change the rebuold strategy.

Yes but either Iginla or Sennecke are high end center though.

 

[sampollock]

The way things are going right now, I see 2 defensemen going in the top 4. Maybe even 3 defensemen consecutively after Celebrini

after last night Sam D will go in top 4

 

[Vachon23]

after last night Sam D will go in top 4

I don’t think 1 game will change anything on his ranking

 

[sampollock]

I don’t think 1 game will change anything on his ranking

we see I guess. but he has been hyped up pretty good