HF Habs: 2024 NHL Draft Thread

[salbutera]

As we all know, NHL is a copycat / what is the latest fad league, will be interesting to see how the size & strength playoff roster construction factor, influences the draft…

Posted a Larry Brooks article “this summer NYR focus is all about size & strength and sacrificing regular season pretty stats for playoff success…. The cores time is over”.

There will be more of that leading up to draft…

 

[Habs Icing]

First, they are for a lot of scouts. Second, because there’s varying degrees of risk involved and everyone has a level they are or aren’t comfortable with. Nobody is saying any prospect is a sure thing one way or the other. These are still bets/gambles at the end of the day.

Definition of consensus: a general agreement. So your answer to my question is there is no general agreement. Thank you.

 

[Garbageyuk]

Definition of consensus: a general agreement. So your answer to my question is there is no general agreement. Thank you.

It could be a consensus opinion that they are seen as having franchise potential, but are simultaneously seen as risky to varying degrees, and teams still might choose other players over them. They are all rated at the top of this draft on virtually all lists. That IS consensus. Things aren’t black and white and there is nuance involved for most people. Thank you.

 

[Hacketts]

We are not on the same page. These are my ceiling hits if all players reach their potential. All will be top 6F assets but I have both Demidov and Iggy with top line potential. Catton is top 6F for me.

Demidov: P Kane type
Iggy: Kaprisov or F Forsberg type (No, he won't be like his father... this is true).
Catton: Seth Jarvis type

Saying Catton is 95% smarter than the entire NHL is a reach.

lol

 

[Habs Halifax]

lol

lol is all you have? Next time, just laugh at the post. HF boards don't have time for your lack of context and this causes post wars about stupid stuff.

I can back up my opinions with context but I have zero time for lol comments and belittle narratives. This was a friendly request to do better than that.

 

[RationalExpectations]

I have Dickinson high as well. I flip flop between him and Silayev at 3rd. I’d probably lean towards Dickinson at this point because he seems safer. The recent mem cup didn’t change much for me because I already thought he’s a stud, although he was impressive there. But man, if Silayev reaches that ceiling. Then I have Levshunov at 5th.

I think Silayev is great and 6‘7 17 year old Dman in the KHL says it all… However I think Dickinson moves the puck better which is why I definitely have him higher

 

[lamp9post]

I see 2-10 all over the map and I agree with Bob M. There are going to be some surprises because each teams board will vary more than normal.

I think after Celebrini two tiers have emerged in the top 12:

2-6 will likely include Levshunov, Demidov, Silayev, Dickenson, and Lindstrom.

7-12 will likely include Iggy, Buium, Parekh, Catton, Helenius, and some wildcards like Eiserman, Sennecke, Yakemchuk.

I wouldn't be shocked if an Iggy or Buium broke into the top 6 and the draft can be full of surpises, but in general the first group of names are more commonly projected to be taken in the top 6/7 than the second group of names.

 

[Habs Halifax]

I think after Celebrini two tiers have emerged in the top 12:

2-6 will likely include Levshunov, Demidov, Silayev, Dickenson, and Lindstrom.

7-12 will likely include Iggy, Buium, Parekh, Catton, Helenius, and some wildcards like Eiserman, Sennecke, Yakemchuk.

I wouldn't be shocked if an Iggy or Buium broke into the top 6 and the draft can be full of surpises, but in general the first group of names are more commonly projected to be taken in the top 6/7 than the second group of names.

I agree with the two waives after Celebrini but the players in that waive are different with me. At the end of the day, it's subjective to who you asks and none of us our scouts.

I really like Iggy's potential as one of the youngest but hottest trending. I like the size/skating/skill package and I like his play in traffic. I could be wrong but after the D+1 and D+2, Iggy is considered blue chip and top line asset. He just checks off a lot of boxes with me.

 

[SannywithoutCompy]

Nope. I have my opinion and my own draft board. Saying nobody is overlooking Iginla is a reach. You can only speak for yourself. He's more of a 5-7 range BPA IMO than a 7-10 range BPA. Catton is in the 7-10 range.

Catton is not in the top 5 for any credible list you can find. Iggy is though. Iginla is very young in this draft and is one of the hottest trending. Catton turned 18 this past Jan and Iggy doesn't turn 18 until Aug. That's a 8 or 9 month difference and I feel Iggy will have the best D+1 and D+2 rise more than most you see in this draft. I bet you Iggy shows his point totals next season like Catton did this past season. Remember, Iggy is 1.5 months away from being in the 2025 draft. You are catching him at the right time IMO.

What's a credible list?

 

[JT3]

I'm 80% certain at this point that it's just gonna be one of Demidov or Lindstrom. And while I would take Demidov first out of the two I feel like Lindstrom would really take us where we wanna go team-building wise and makes it a little easier to cough up assets for a skilled perimeter guy like Necas without worrying about being too soft up front down the road.

 

[Hacketts]

lol is all you have? Next time, just laugh at the post. HF boards don't have time for your lack of context and this causes post wars about stupid stuff.

I can back up my opinions with context but I have zero time for lol comments and belittle narratives. This was a friendly request to do better than that.

lol

 

[Troyp]

Eliteprospects draft guide comes out in an hour

 

[sampollock]

Eliteprospects draft guide comes out in an hour

anyone know if a paper draft issue is out? THN??

 

[Habs Icing]

It could be a consensus opinion that they are seen as having franchise potential, but are simultaneously seen as risky to varying degrees, and teams still might choose other players over them. They are all rated at the top of this draft on virtually all lists. That IS consensus. Things aren’t black and white and there is nuance involved for most people. Thank you.

The first 5 spots concerns Hab fans not the top of the draft. In more lists than not that I've seen, there are three forwards in the top 5 spots so I don't know where you got this consensus that 4, maybe even 6, of the d-men are franchise players. If that is the case then the 3 forwards in the top 5 spots must be elite almost generational.

 

[Garbageyuk]

The first 5 spots concerns Hab fans not the top of the draft. In more lists than not that I've seen, there are three forwards in the top 5 spots so I don't know where you got this consensus that 4, maybe even 6, of the d-men are franchise players. If that is the case then the 3 forwards in the top 5 spots must be elite almost generational.

This is where you are misinterpreting. I never said “they are franchise players”. I said that they all have franchise player POTENTIAL, but that they all carry different degrees of risk, i.e., they are all seen as having different likelihoods of reaching that potential/ceiling.

Some people/teams may still opt for a forward over them, even if they do have that POTENTIAL. Like I said, none of this is black and white and it involves nuance and a degree of opinion/subjectivity.

You yourself do not appear to understand that and are seemingly only interested in being right and speaking definitively/in absolutes, when it doesn’t work like that for an upcoming draft.

 

[Vachon23]

Personally, if Demidov or Lindstrom are there you take them but I would have a hard time taking Iginla/Sennecke before Dickinson

 

[Mrb1p]

Dickinson is nice but this is a classic case of recency bias

 

[Garbageyuk]

Personally, if Demidov or Lindstrom are there you take them but I would have a hard time taking Iginla/Sennecke before Dickinson

This is how I’m feeling, except it isn’t just Dickinson; it’s all of Buium, Dickinson, Silayev, Levshunov.

If at 5, Lindstrom, Demidov, or both are still on the board, I’d probably end up picking one of them over the above, even though it’s probably not the smartest idea. We need and have needed elite offensive talent up front for so long that I’d do it, even though I have the above 4 D rated higher.

If both Lindstrom and Demidov are gone though, it’s a no brainer. Just pick one of the above D and rest assured you made the smart and obvious choice, no need to try to get all 4D chess, big brained and make a stupid reach pick for positional need. That’s Timmins MO. None of the other forwards look like they have high end potential.

 

[Vachon23]

This is how I’m feeling, except it isn’t just Dickinson; it’s all of Buium, Dickinson, Silayev, Levshunov.

If at 5, Lindstrom, Demidov, or both are still on the board, I’d probably end up picking one of them over the above, even though it’s probably not the smartest idea. We need and have needed elite offensive talent up front for so long that I’d do it, even though I have the above 4 D rated higher.

If both Lindstrom and Demidov are gone though, it’s a no brainer. Just pick one of the above D and rest assured you made the smart and obvious choice, no need to try to get all 4D chess, big brained and make a stupid reach pick for positional need. That’s Timmins MO. None of the other forwards look like they have high end potential.

At the end of the day, I prefer going with the top pair Dmen then the complimentary top 6 winger even if we have a bigger need for wingers.

It’s not like if we have many top pair upside Dmen. I only see Reinbacher and Guhle with that upside

 

[Mrb1p]

At the end of the day, I prefer going with the top pair Dmen then the complimentary top 6 winger even if we have a bigger need for wingers.

It’s not like if we have many top pair upside Dmen. I only see Reinbacher and Guhle with that upside

Realistically it's more like Alex Tuch and Kreider for Lindholm and Slavin.

They're both of similar value, you can't just add "complimentary winger", it's complimentary winger with size and physical ability for Lindstrom, Iggy and Sennecke.

 

[WeThreeKings]

The calculus is always is the improvement of Dickinson vs Guhle (if there even is any) bigger than the improvement of the forward on basically Gallagher.

Trading a surplus for a need is a nice idea but again it's more rare than people make it out to be.

 

[JoelWarlord]

Realistically it's more like Alex Tuch and Kreider for Lindholm and Slavin.

They're both of similar value, you can't just add "complimentary winger", it's complimentary winger with size and physical ability for Lindstrom, Iggy and Sennecke.

Agree, not to mention that the guys like Parekh/Buium would be directly cannibalizing Hutson's value on the PP, so it's far less clear which player adds more to the team in the aggregate. With Dickinson/Silayev you have a similar issue with cannibalizing Guhle's minutes over the long term as well. It's just not as clear to me that these guys are a huge step above the forwards and historically these kinds of "take BPA and trade for your need" trades don't really materialize that often either.

 

[Vachon23]

Realistically it's more like Alex Tuch and Kreider for Lindholm and Slavin.

They're both of similar value, you can't just add "complimentary winger", it's complimentary winger with size and physical ability for Lindstrom, Iggy and Sennecke.

I prefer having Lindholm/Salvin personally. Those guys are on the ice for almost half of the game and they are a big part of a team controlling the tempo of a game

The calculus is always is the improvement of Dickinson vs Guhle (if there even is any) bigger than the improvement of the forward on basically Gallagher.

Trading a surplus for a need is a nice idea but again it's more rare than people make it out to be.

the other calculus I consider is that’s it’s easier to find winger by trade/UFA then Dmen

 

[Habsfan18]

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[WeThreeKings]

I prefer having Lindholm/Salvin personally. Those guys are on the ice for almost half of the game and they are a big part of a team controlling the tempo of a game

the other calculus I consider is that’s it’s easier to find winger by trade/UFA then Dmen

Sure, but if the analysis by the brass and organization is that they have more than enough defenseman and are comfortable with their trajectories toward their forecasted spots, then you are not really maximizing anything by drafting a defenseman.

Obviously if the defenseman was such an obvious huge upgrade, nobody would turn it down, but for as much as people are beating their chest that Iginla, Buium, Parekh, Dickinson is the BPA now.. just because it is your belief doesn't mean it is commonly held among NHL scouts/teams, nor by the Canadiens.

If we are talking about a clear BPA, then we would see some clear distinction of these guys in draft rankings and Bob's list but we haven't seen that yet and that's probably because the opinion of these guys differ between teams and scouting staffs.