HF Habs: 2024 NHL Draft Thread

[RationalExpectations]

I see it both ways. I see it his way of saying they will focus on defensemen, but know the importance of goal scorers.

The fact that CBJ has the following defensemen: Werenski, Severson, Provorov, Jiricek, Boqvist (who can still turn his game around), and blue chip prospect/stud Mateychuk...! They're in a good position going forward with their defense. On the other hand, there's this:

Season	Goals For (GF)	Goals Against (GA)	Goal Differential
2023-24	237 (8th lowest)	300 (2nd highest)	-63 (4th lowest)
2022-23	214 (3rd lowest)	330 (2nd highest)	-116 (2nd lowest)
2021-22	262 (14th highest)	300 (5th highest)	-116 (12th lowest)
2020-21	137 (3rd lowest)	187 (7th highest)	-50 (3rd lowest)
2019-20	180 (3rd lowest)	187 (3rd lowest)	-7 (9th lowest)

There's a trend that they're getting worse each year with Goals Against (from 3rd lowest (which is great), to 7th highest, to 5th highest, then 2nd highest two years in a row)... Obviously, this will change soon with Jiricek getting better and Mateychuk joining the team.

Looking at what Don Waddell said, their focus is on goal scoring and on defense. I might be in the minority here, but I think (and hope) that "rules out" CBJ going for Demidov, because Demidov isn't known to be a goal scorer IMO. Instead, CBJ might be looking at trading down to get Eiserman, or simply stay and pick one of Lindstrom, Catton, or Iginla. If they trade down to get this year's "best" goal scorer in Eiserman, they might be able to also get a really good defenseman (kill 2 birds with 1 stone).

Otherwise, they might simply go for someone like Silayev, Dickinson, Buium, or Levshunov to ensure their defense is set for the near future. Next year's draft seems to be very forward-heavy, and CBJ isn't getting out of the "gutter" just yet.

Honestly, my opinion right now is CBJ will either trade down and get Eiserman or stay put and draft 1 of Lindstrom/Catton/Iginla. My reason being is they already have top defensemen, and with Jiricek growing into his game and Mateychuk soon to join the team, They don't *need* another top defenseman IMO. They can do with acquiring 2nd pairing D going forward, but the goal scoring will still be missing!

What you say makes a lot of sense, in my book even though GM is changing I could see them going Lindstrom to have Fantili / Lindstrom as 1C /2C ot take a Dman (esp. Dickinson since in my mind Provorov is not a long term plan for them)

 

[sampollock]

My guess for the draft
1. habs pick Demitov at 5
2. habs make a deal for the peg pick , 2nd round pick + harris = Laine (cbj keeps 25% of his salary)

 

[Pompeius Magnus]

“I wouldn't hesitate at all to use a lottery selection on Sennecke at this point. I think he can be first line player in the NHL when all is said and done”

Quite the endorsement from Brock.

FWIW, he's been on that bandwagon since the start of the season. He's always been very high on his potential. Dickinson has always been his guy though, I don't think he's had him anywhere but at first in the league all season. I 100% agree with that notion personally, Dickinson is a good notch above the rest in my book. I'm a pretty firm believer in his offensive game at the next level, I see him as more of a Dobson than a Skjei at the next level. Time will tell, obviously.

 

[le_sean]

FWIW, he's been on that bandwagon since the start of the season. He's always been very high on his potential. Dickinson has always been his guy though, I don't think he's had him anywhere but at first in the league all season.

Yeah I didn’t remember his early season rankings but the way he talks about Sennecke is that he’s been waiting for this explosion for a while.

 

[le_sean]

Moving on to the Athletic pod this morning with Pronman.

Fun to listen to Pronman drag Wheeler in discussions.

 

[morhilane]

Yeah I didn’t remember his early season rankings but the way he talks about Sennecke is that he’s been waiting for this explosion for a while.

I've read in multiple places that a lot of professional scouts were high on Sennecke when he was 5'10. They were all waiting for him to "re-calibrate" after his growth spurt and clearly he did enough in the second half for some of them.

 

[Harry Kakalovich]

I love how we have no idea who the Habs want at 5, and so we postulate who the CBJ want at 4, which we have even less idea about. So wide open this draft haha. Looking forward to draft night!!

 

[Andrei79]

I wouldn't mind Sennecke at 10th, but I still don't like him at 5th.

I've never been a fan of later risers, and I'm personally worried to see how his game is impacted by his frame filling out. The way he gets around defenders with his lanky frame is interesting, but if he fills out with 30lbs of muscle to get up to 205lbs, then I'm not sure if he'll maintain that aspect of his game.

Not a fan of late risers ? Bad experiences with guys like Seider, Makar and Pettersson ?

 

[Mrb1p]

Just draft a top 6 forward and Ill be happy.

 

[The Great Weal]

Not a fan of late risers ? Bad experiences with guys like Makar and Pettersson ?

I guess there are the Kotkaniemi's as late risers that backfired miserably. That being said, it's rare to have a professional athlete have such bad work ethic when it comes to improving himself so it's unlikely that Sennecke ends up the same way.

 

[Andrei79]

I guess there are the Kotkaniemi's as late risers that backfired miserably. That being said, it's rare to have a professional athlete have such bad work ethic when it comes to improving himself so it's unlikely that Sennecke ends up the same way.

Yeah, bad experiences from a few players that bias people, but I would venture a guess and say rising late likely has more positive correlations to success. It's strange to think that a 17-18 year old upping his game in the highest pressure situations he's faced, in his most important year, is actually a negative. Sennecke in particular was always skilled, but now he's skilled and 6'3"/6'4".

 

[WeThreeKings]

Yeah, bad experiences from a few players that bias people, but I would venture a guess and say rising late likely has more positive correlations to success. It's strange to think that a 17-18 year old upping his game in the highest pressure situations he's faced, in his most important year, is actually a negative. Sennecke in particular was always skilled, but now he's skilled and 6'3"/6'4".

I'd tell people to get comfortable with the notion of Sennecke at 5. That noise ain't out there for no reason.

 

[Andrei79]

I'd tell people to get comfortable with the notion of Sennecke at 5. That noise ain't out there for no reason.

Yeah, I'm fine with one of the top 3 skilled forwards in the draft who happens to be 6'3" with the 5th pick. If he played the whole year like he did down the stretch there wouldn't be much debate about it.

 

[Hacketts]

My guess for the draft
1. habs pick Demitov at 5
2. habs make a deal for the peg pick , 2nd round pick + harris = Laine (cbj keeps 25% of his salary)

that's a good night.

 

[sampollock]

I'd tell people to get comfortable with the notion of Sennecke at 5. That noise ain't out there for no reason.

It could sure happen.. brace ourselves

 

[Shutdown]

it's friday and work isn't too busy so let's look at how late riser Sennecke compared to Lindstrom and Iginla in early season rankings (mostly top 32s)

Elite Propsects September Ranking

2024 NHL Draft Ranking v1 - Elite Prospects

User submitted ranking at Eliteprospects.com - 2024 NHL Draft Ranking v1

www.eliteprospects.com

Lindstrom - 11
Sennecke - 26
Iginla - 52

Daily Faceoff July Ranking

2024 NHL Draft: A very early top 32 ranking

Macklin Celebrini and Cole Eiserman are among the top names to watch for the 2024 selection.

www.dailyfaceoff.com

Lindstrom - Not in top 32
Sennecke - 18
Iginla - Not in top 32

Sportsnet October Ranking

Sportsnet's 2024 NHL Draft Prospect Rankings: First Edition

In our first rankings for the 2024 NHL Draft, Sam Cosentino starts with Macklin Celebrini at the top. Will he be able to hold that spot all season?

www.sportsnet.ca

Lindstrom - 16
Sennecke - 29
Iginla - NR

Hockey News September Ranking

https://thehockeynews.com/news/2024-nhl-draft-rankings-the-first-watch-list

Lindstrom - 25
Sennecke - NR
Iginla - NR


Yahoo (Ian Kennedy) October Ranking

2024 NHL Draft rankings: Two-horse race forming at the top

There's no Connor Bedard in the 2024 NHL Draft class, as two players are emerging as candidates to go first overall.

ca.sports.yahoo.com

Lindstrom - HM 26-33
Sennecke - HM 26-33
Iginla - NR

Central Scouting October List

Lindstrom - A prospect
Sennecke - A prospect
Iginla - B prospect

Craig Button October

Craig’s List: Macklin Celebrini, Cole Eiserman in tight race for top spot for 2024 NHL Draft | TSN

While TSN Director of Scouting Craig Button has Boston University centre Macklin Celebrini at No. 1 on his list ahead of USNTDP winger Cole Eiserman, he believes the margin between the two players is razor-thin.

www.tsn.ca

Lindstrom - 19
Sennecke - 30
Iginla - NR

Pronman November list

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5014514/2023/11/01/nhl-draft-2024-prospects-rankings-in-season-celebrini/

Lindstrom - 10
Sennecke - NR
Iginla - NR

Wheeler August list

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/4697400/2023/08/14/2024-nhl-draft-preseason-ranking-wheeler/

Lindstrom - HM
Sennecke - 21
Iginla - NR

Bob Mckenzie September list

Macklin Celebrini leads 'Big Three' atop Bob McKenzie's TSN pre-season NHL draft ranking | TSN

Nine out of 10 NHL scouts surveyed to determine TSN’s Pre-Season Top 16 Rankings slotted the 17-year-old Boston University freshman from Vancouver at the top of their respective lists.

www.tsn.ca

Lindstrom - HM 17-20
Sennecke - HM 17-20
Iginla - NR


Beckett Sennecke, the earliest late riser the NHL draft has ever seen

 

[WeThreeKings]

If Sennecke had 90 pts this year (his playoffs pace), would the view of him as a prospect change?

There's only three things I can come up with that would have people resist him as an option in this class

He hasn't been talked about as a top 10/5 pick early enough in the cycle for people to be comfortable.

His hockeydb page doesn't show a big point production.

He's seen as a "riser" and that has a negative connotation because of Kotkaniemi not working out.

 

[sampollock]

If Sennecke had 90 pts this year (his playoffs pace), would the view of him as a prospect change?

There's only three things I can come up with that would have people resist him as an option in this class

He hasn't been talked about as a top 10/5 pick early enough in the cycle for people to be comfortable.

His hockeydb page doesn't show a big point production.

He's seen as a "riser" and that has a negative connotation because of Kotkaniemi not working out.

I have not seen him, does he play with his size? I don't mean a power forward but does he shy away from the corners or the slot??

 

[Mrb1p]

I guess there are the Kotkaniemi's as late risers that backfired miserably. That being said, it's rare to have a professional athlete have such bad work ethic when it comes to improving himself so it's unlikely that Sennecke ends up the same way.

What matters more than momentum is psych evals and developping a player properly. Seemingly one or both failed in Kotkaniemis case.

Yeah, bad experiences from a few players that bias people, but I would venture a guess and say rising late likely has more positive correlations to success. It's strange to think that a 17-18 year old upping his game in the highest pressure situations he's faced, in his most important year, is actually a negative. Sennecke in particular was always skilled, but now he's skilled and 6'3"/6'4".

Rising late is probably not correlated much differently than keeping your momentum. Of course losing momentum is probably the one you want to stay away from, then again, it's not always true; Barzal, Benson, Guhle, etc being recent examples.

Yeah, I'm fine with one of the top 3 skilled forwards in the draft who happens to be 6'3" with the 5th pick. If he played the whole year like he did down the stretch there wouldn't be much debate about it.

Well, he's not displacing Celebrini, Catton or Demidov from the top 3.

The thing is he didn't play the whole year like he did down the stretch though, I understand pace and or momentum isn't a bad thing, but were setting ourselves up to fail when we discount sample size like that, especially in the case of a guy like Sennecke who's big, strong, fast, super skilled but not the most "pro" player out there.

 

[Whitesnake]

If Sennecke had 90 pts this year (his playoffs pace), would the view of him as a prospect change?

There's only three things I can come up with that would have people resist him as an option in this class

He hasn't been talked about as a top 10/5 pick early enough in the cycle for people to be comfortable.

His hockeydb page doesn't show a big point production.

He's seen as a "riser" and that has a negative connotation because of Kotkaniemi not working out.

I see you often talk about stats as if it's overrated. You will never think that the lack of jump in stats between 1st and 2nd year is an issue?

What I personnally find special is the famous ''pace'' analysis. If JK's pace this year would have followed his first 12 games, he'd be a PPG player. I don't believe in pace. YES, what he did in playoffs IS impressive. No doubt. 'Cause it's often much tougher to produce 'cause you face better teams.

But then....why can't Greentree suddenly not become top 5? Skating? He improved it from start to finish. And there's a jump in stats and in play. What makes Sennecke a better prospect? Again...skating? If Greentree improved it...why can't he improved it more? Greentree also didn't have the team that Sennecke had.

So then, we just have to accept that Sennecke is a top 5 product and not Greentree?

And by the way...YES to your 3 arguments why he's not seen top 5. You are totally right. I understand that those points do not make it a fact. But it explains people worrying. If we pick him, should we automatically call him a bad pick and a bust? Nope absolutely not. I will REALLY be intrigued 'cause of everything that comes with him and his playoaffs stats, him still getting used to his body and style of play and all. He will be one of the most intriguing prospect in years. I will not miss one single game of his. But....possible that we'd found better players at that spot.

I will have Sennecke ahead of Greentree. And will have Sennecke in my top 12. But not top 5. Does that make me right? lol...of course not. My main problem is that he doesn't have the ratio quality/surefire type of prospect I'm loosking at in a top 5.

 

[The Great Weal]

What matters more than momentum is psych evals and developping a player properly. Seemingly one or both failed in Kotkaniemis case.

Our development was crap for KK, it's hard to overlook the fact that he's still an awful skater who falls on his ass all the time with the slowest release ever. Like how do you not improve on that after 6 years.

I'm personally still not sold on our drafting at all. Yes I'm being proven wrong about Slaf, and yes we have some prospects that are looking good with this new regime, but until I see elite talent in the NHL, I'll have my doubts.

KK is one example of a late riser that failed, and another one Kravtsov because of how good he was in the playoffs. Guess which scout reached for him and actually had him at 3rd OA? It's the one that's our head scout right now.

Doesn't mean that we should avoid drafting any risers, but I'm not exactly confident with our guys for now.

 

[Playmaker09]

If Sennecke had 90 pts this year (his playoffs pace), would the view of him as a prospect change?

There's only three things I can come up with that would have people resist him as an option in this class

He hasn't been talked about as a top 10/5 pick early enough in the cycle for people to be comfortable.

His hockeydb page doesn't show a big point production.

He's seen as a "riser" and that has a negative connotation because of Kotkaniemi not working out.

The skilled beanpole is a high-risk profile regardless. He could be the next Scheiefle/Pettersson or the next Puljujarvi, Glass, Dal Colle, KK, Perlini, Kravtsov, Pouliot, Mueller, Paajarvi.

His growth spurt is a valid excuse, but at the end of the day it's still a very big IF. There's no guarantee that his balance issues resolve themselves with time, and it's important that they do because he won't be able to rely so much on his handling alone at the NHL level.

I like the player, but there are safer bets in the top 8 at least.

 

[Shutdown]

I have not seen him, does he play with his size? I don't mean a power forward but does he shy away from the corners or the slot??

from what i've seen (a few full game shift by shift vids) he definitely does not initiate contact. don't know if it'll come with getting more comfortable with his size.

he mostly wins puck battles with his stick and he approaches potential board battles with his body already in position to make a play if he comes out with the puck. i'd like to see him lean on guys to make room for himself a little more.

definitely does not shy away from the slot.

i'd grade his propensity to go to the slot at 8/10 and corners 6/10

 

[Hannibal]

If Sennecke had 90 pts this year (his playoffs pace), would the view of him as a prospect change?

There's only three things I can come up with that would have people resist him as an option in this class

He hasn't been talked about as a top 10/5 pick early enough in the cycle for people to be comfortable.

His hockeydb page doesn't show a big point production.

He's seen as a "riser" and that has a negative connotation because of Kotkaniemi not working out.

What about his attitude problem that led him to be scratch earlier this year?

In no scenario i would pick him before Lindstrom/Iginla who seems to have already « professional mindset »

 

[sampollock]

What about his attitude problem that led him to be scratch earlier this year?

In no scenario i would pick him before Lindstrom/Iginla.

I tend to agree with you