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2024 NHL Draft Thread - Upd: Draft Lottery is May 7th

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EbonyRaptor said:
There's still a couple months before the draft and many prospects will play a lot more before then - especially in the CHL with the playoffs and Memorial Cup - so things can and almost certainly change between now and then - BUT - as things stand right now with many of the prospect scouting publications Parekh won't make it out of the top-10 and may go top-5.

Have you watched Saginaw games? I've seen Saginaw play at least 6 or 7 times over the past month as I was watching Hawks prospects and their team happened to be playing Saginaw. He is the most dynamic draft eligible player with the exception of Celebrini and it's not "just" physical dynamism - it's mental quickness too. His vision is elite level but what is also exceptional is how quickly he processes and executes the play.
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I have seen very little of Parekh , I will be watching more since they have a buy in the Memorial Cup .He scares the hell out of me from what I've read about him ; (vision's of Adam Boqvist ). Some love the guy but many say he is far too pedistrian on defence . Tough decisions this draft, hopefully we will lottery again and just draft Celebrini . Yakemchuk is another guy I'm not sure what to make of ?
 
Ducks pick up at least 1 point vs blues, picking up a 2nd would be huge

aaaand Binnington detroyed them in the shootout. Welp, loser point will have to do.
 
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I believe hawks win tie breaker with ducks, as in better lotto odds(please correct if im wrong here) meaning hawks need 3 wins in the last 5 games… i cant see that happening
 
TheDoorDoctor said:
I believe hawks win tie breaker with ducks, as in better lotto odds(please correct if im wrong here) meaning hawks need 3 wins in the last 5 games… i cant see that happening
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Yes Hawks have 2 fewer regulation wins and regulation/overtime wins, but theoretically if they were to tie in points (Hawks are 3 points back) they may also catch up there (Say the Hawks win 2 more in regulation while Anaheim loses one in overtime). Third tiebreaker is total wins (Hawks still two back there). Then it goes to goal differential (Hawks -9 behind at the moment).
 
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Loss today the beat Chicago could finish is now 30th…guaranteed a top 5 pick, to go along with TBs 1st(somewhere between 17th and 32nd)…and then either 33, 34 or 35
 
With our Tampa pick which of these 3 would you choose and why? Andrew Basha, Michael Hage, or Beckett Sennecke? And if you were to take a defenseman would it be Elick, EJ Emery or Dominik Badinka?
 
WarriorofTime said:
Yes Hawks have 2 fewer regulation wins and regulation/overtime wins, but theoretically if they were to tie in points (Hawks are 3 points back) they may also catch up there (Say the Hawks win 2 more in regulation while Anaheim loses one in overtime). Third tiebreaker is total wins (Hawks still two back there). Then it goes to goal differential (Hawks -9 behind at the moment).
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I thought the 3rd tiebreaker (after RW and ROW) was head to head which would give it to Anaheim because the Hawks went 2-1 against them this season.

So if Anaheim doesn't pick up any more points AND the Hawks win 2 out of their last 5 games - they will be tied in points (55) and Regulation Wins (19) and Regulation and OT Wins (24) - therefore it would go to the 3rd tiebreaker, which is ... head-to-head OR goal differential?
 
Now just 5GR for the Hawks..

So ran the Tankathon NHL Draft Simulator again for the 8th try since I began the experiment with 12GR..
This time was the first out of 8 tries that Hawks landed in place at #2 spot.

The resukts so far=

@ #1 once
@ #2 once
@#3 3 times
@#4 3times

So far running Below that 44.8% chance we stay in place at #2... 1/8 tries = only 12.5%

The algorithm so far has only given a 25% chancexwe finish at #1or#2 position.

But I will continue with 4 more tries (one before each of the final 4 GR starting after our next game (vs. the St.Louis Blues)....
 
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hawksfan50 said:
Now just 5GR for the Hawks..

So ran the Tankathon NHL Draft Simulator again for the 8th try since I began the experiment with 12GR..
This time was the first out of 8 tries that Hawks landed in place at #2 spot.

The resukts so far=

@ #1 once
@#2 once
@#3 3 times
@#4 3 times

So far running Below that 44.8% chance we stay in place at #2... 1/8 tries = only 12.5%

The algorithm so far has only given a 25% chancexwe finish at #1or#2 position.

But I will continue with 4 more tries (one before each of the final 4 GR starting after our next game (vs. the St.Louis Blues)....
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Okay this is just killing me and it is beyond stupid. There is no experiment, you can run that thing a hundred times a day and each time the odds are the same. It is like flipping a coin, you can have 9 heads in a row and on the 10th flip the odds is still 50/50. Here are the Hawks current odds. 1-13.5% , 2-14.1%, 3-30.7%, 4-41.7%. The odds never change wether you run it 1 time of 500 times the next time you run it is the same as every other time.
 
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Happyhary9 said:
Okay this is just killing me and it is beyond stupid. There is no experiment, you can run that thing a hundred times a day and each time the odds are the same. It is like flipping a coin, you can have 9 heads in a row and on the 10th flip the odds is still 50/50. Here are the Hawks current odds. 1-13.5% , 2-14.1%, 3-30.7%, 4-41.7%. The odds never change wether you run it 1 time of 500 times the next time you run it is the same as every other time.
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let him have his fun
 
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CapitalistInfidel said:
With our Tampa pick which of these 3 would you choose and why? Andrew Basha, Michael Hage, or Beckett Sennecke? And if you were to take a defenseman would it be Elick, EJ Emery or Dominik Badinka?
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Sennecke or Hage for me. EJ Emery for sure. Not really interested in any of those defenders within the 1st round tbh. Haven't exactly looked into Sennecke enough to feel comfortable ranking him, but seen enough of him to know his profile fits the Hawks needs. Might prefer Hage slightly at the moment.
 
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TLEH said:
If we do finish 2nd, we will have 13.5% chance to win. A 44.8% chance to pick 2nd or 3rd, and a 41% chance to pick 4th.
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This is how you tank. Great job Davidson. Bedard already in the bag a top 4 pick and another 1st rounder. 2 in the bag for next year and a top prospect pool. Were on the way.

Teams like Minnesota, Philly, Arizona, Calgary just dont tank hard enough and stay mediocre.
 
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Tankathon results from 100 sims…

Blackhawks picking
1st 16
2nd 20
3rd 32
4th 32

So it looks like either Anton Levshunov or Cayden Lindstrom

Nice!
 

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Northernhawk said:
Tankathon results from 100 sims…

Blackhawks picking
1st 16
2nd 20
3rd 32
4th 32

So it looks like either Anton Levshunov or Cayden Lindstrom

Nice!
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Your numbers (not the real numbers) would show that its more as likely they would get Celebrini/Demidov then the Lindstrom or Levshunov.
 
CapitalistInfidel said:
With our Tampa pick which of these 3 would you choose and why? Andrew Basha, Michael Hage, or Beckett Sennecke? And if you were to take a defenseman would it be Elick, EJ Emery or Dominik Badinka?
Click to expand...
I would take Basha from the forward list and Elick from the D list.
 
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