2024 NHL Draft Thread - Upd: Draft Lottery is May 7th

[TLEH]

I watched that Lindstrom scouting report vid (look at me researching prospects!) and I love the idea of having a 6’4” center who can skate like that.

His highlights and tools are great, I look forward to him getting back healthy so I can watch Medicine Hat a bit more again.

Losing both March games against San Jose should lock up fewest points.

Think it all depends on health. If Bedard and TJ, and AA and Murphy come back post all star break, we’ll win some games.

 

[bwanajamba]

Well I'm pretty confident in his 2C outcome, possibly a lower end 1C, absolute worst case scenario he's a decently scoring 3C like 40 point guy. Or with Dickinson I think you're getting a 3LD that might become a 2LD. I think those are better than middling ceiling. I think they have 8 ceilings and like 5 for floors, if you're talking 1-10. While the other guys I listed have floors in the 3 range and ceilings at the 10.

I agree with go big in the Top 5, but most years you aren't projecting this much in the Top 5, you're getting more a sure thing. Its only asking the question. I would be comfortable taking Catton at 2. Others won't be. Only time will tell.

When you're talking about a floor of 3/10 for guys with Lindstrom and Silayev's gifts, that to me would have to be guys who simply don't compete which is by all accounts I've seen not the case with those two. Silayev especially- barring injuries or geopolitics I feel like you'd have to really f*** up not to turn him into at least a Vlasic-type shutdown anchor, even if you never make him Hedman.

 

[Kevin Musto]

You don't want to be projecting this much at two.

It's that kind of draft year.

After Celebrini, there isn't a surefire elite talent so you have to look at swinging for the fences.

 

[TLEH]

When you're talking about a floor of 3/10 for guys with Lindstrom and Silayev's gifts, that to me would have to be guys who simply don't compete which is by all accounts I've seen not the case with those two. Silayev especially- barring injuries or geopolitics I feel like you'd have to really f*** up not to turn him into at least a Vlasic-type shutdown anchor, even if you never make him Hedman.

He could be Jamie Benn or Bertuzzi but I think he could also be Josh Anderson and I think he could also be Max Jones or Michael Rasmussen. The latter of which I would consider 3s.. He's been better than Jones or Rasmussen so far but I also see some of what made them fail.

Silayev is such a wild card. Are you really about to take a guy from the KHL at 2 that came out of no where in one season? Nikita Tryamkin was a big guy who could also skate well in his draft year too. Or Maybe he is Hedman.

 

[Castle8130]

Seeing that the Hawks only drafted one defenseman last year (in the 7th round), I figure we are drafting one with one of our top 3 picks. I'm eyeing one of the defensemen outside of those elite top 6 (Dickinson, Levshunov, Silayev, Yakemchuk, Parekh, and Buium) because I don't think they'll be there with our Tampa pick.

Who you guys got for late 1st round candidates? Emery, Jiricek, Kiviharju, Fischer, Elick, Pulkkinen, Mews, Hutson, Shuravin, Sahlin Wellenius, Badinka, Stolberg, Freij, or Muggli. Top ranked defenders by Mckenzie

 

[Taze em]

I think you’ve hit a grand slam with Bedard. We need guaranteed doubles. Levshunov will be a top 4D at a position of need at minimum. He might be BPA anyway.

 

[Toews2Bickell]

Macklin will be BPA at 1...have faith in Uncle Gary

 

[Kevin Musto]

Seeing that the Hawks only drafted one defenseman last year (in the 7th round), I figure we are drafting one with one of our top 3 picks. I'm eyeing one of the defensemen outside of those elite top 6 (Dickinson, Levshunov, Silayev, Yakemchuk, Parekh, and Buium) because I don't think they'll be there with our Tampa pick.

Who you guys got for late 1st round candidates? Emery, Jiricek, Kiviharju, Fischer, Elick, Pulkkinen, Mews, Hutson, Shuravin, Sahlin Wellenius, Badinka, Stolberg, Freij, or Muggli. Top ranked defenders by Mckenzie

If Jiricek falls that far due to his injury, I'd be interested.

Of course you'd have to do your homework, and make sure there's no long term issues there.

He's very raw right now, and many years out, but he has high upside.

 

[ello]

Why isn't Buium getting more love in general in the rankings? Scoring at a crazy clip for a freshman and played a key role as an underage Dman at the WJC. Feels like handedness and not being 6'1+ is working against him here.

 

[Castle8130]

Outside of Celebrini, does anyone in this class have a good shot of being in the NHL next year?

There are a few players that COULD play in the NHL next year. Players like Chernyshov, Silayev, Catton, and even Helenius could play in the bottom 6/bottom pairing. It's more of a battle between Could vs. Should. I don't think any of these players SHOULD play in the NHL right away. Cattons trajectory would be similar to Zach Benson, but I think Benson was further in development at this point.


EDIT: I know the contract situations with the Russian players. I'm just saying they could fit in an NHL teams line-up next year because of the player they are right now.

 

[Chuck Testa]

Losing both March games against San Jose should lock up fewest points.

Blackwood could easily steal a game for them.

For that reason, they'll likely play the lesser of their two goaltenders.

Much like the Hawks, the Sharks are better off piling on losses.

 

[Castle8130]

Why isn't Buium getting more love in general in the rankings? Scoring at a crazy clip for a freshman and played a key role as an underage Dman at the WJC. Feels like handedness and not being 6'1+ is working against him here.

His numbers in the NCAA are a bit inflated due to his team being so good. He is creeping up on a lot of scouts lists though and is UNDERVALUED. I think a lot of it stems from his overall game outside of his offensive zone play. The players in front of him are really good too.

 

[WarriorofTime]

I don't think Levshunov's floor is that low. I really don't see all the same level of concerns concerns with him being so bad this year outside of HF, no offense to the people that post there but I don't think they are professionals. When one guy in particular is aggressively hunting clips to show mistakes, that are sometimes even questionable if they are big mistakes, that just kinda moves the Overton window aggressively. Similar to how Leaf and Habs prospects always seem to get overrated because they are just discussed more extensively after being drafted/pre-NHL (you'd see much more discussion on a pretty good prospect like Matthew Knies compared to a much better prospect a few years prior like Matt Boldy who seemingly disappears between his draft year and a couple years later until he pops up as a productive NHLer).

I don't watch every MSU game but have seen enough. If Levshunov is as prone to being a disaster as it's often stated, then as a young freshman playing in the NCAA in a conference with a lot of very high-end college teams, I'd expect his +/- to be really bad even with offensive favorable deployment. The fact that it's the complete opposite would have to mean he's just been insanely lucky (which does happen with +/- but idk if anyone is willing to make that claim and while +/- isn't the end all be all, I question going too far in the other direction of "it's entirely useless and counter-productive to every think about").

Defensemen are just harder to project out in general, but that's no different from Levshunov than say a HF boards certified "very safe" prospect in Dickinson.

 

[Larmer83]

I don't think Levshunov's floor is that low. I really don't see all the same level of concerns concerns with him being so bad this year outside of HF, no offense to the people that post there but I don't think they are professionals. When one guy in particular is aggressively hunting clips to show mistakes, that are sometimes even questionable if they are big mistakes, that just kinda moves the Overton window aggressively. Similar to how Leaf and Habs prospects always seem to get overrated because they are just discussed more extensively after being drafted/pre-NHL (you'd see much more discussion on a pretty good prospect like Matthew Knies compared to a much better prospect a few years prior like Matt Boldy who seemingly disappears between his draft year and a couple years later until he pops up as a productive NHLer).

I don't watch every MSU game but have seen enough. If Levshunov is as prone to being a disaster as it's often stated, then as a young freshman playing in the NCAA in a conference with a lot of very high-end college teams, I'd expect his +/- to be really bad even with offensive favorable deployment. The fact that it's the complete opposite would have to mean he's just been insanely lucky (which does happen with +/- but idk if anyone is willing to make that claim and while +/- isn't the end all be all, I question going too far in the other direction of "it's entirely useless and counter-productive to every think about").

Defensemen are just harder to project out in general, but that's no different from Levshunov than say a HF boards certified "very safe" prospect in Dickinson.

If you’re going to hold up the +/- for Levshunov as a measure of his playing ability, the real context is the goal differential for Michigan State. It’s absurd the last time I took a peak.

 

[WarriorofTime]

If you’re going to hold up the +/- for Levshunov as a measure of his playing ability, the real context is the goal differential for Michigan State. It’s absurd the last time I took a peak.

Michigan State Univ. at eliteprospects.com

Michigan State Univ. hockey team page with roster, stats, transactions at Eliteprospects.com

www.eliteprospects.com

He has a sizable lead over his teammates

amongst DMen

Levshunov (05): +24
Nienhuis (99): +18
Oravetz (03): +8
Gucciardi (02): +8
Strbak (05): +4
Geary (04): +2
Hurtig (02): +1
Crossman (98): 0
Basgall (02): -4

With Levshunov's own productivity and MSU having its best season in decades with him in a major role, I think it'd be basically impossible to say that Levshunov is for instance, not already an elite college hockey player amongst a very high end college hockey conference. How that translates to NHL is always where scouting/projection comes in (defensemen are tricky), but I do think the fact that you can confidently say you're getting an elite college hockey player out of a very late 05 is of course a nice indicator that with normal development you've got at least a pretty solid NHL player.

 

[DisgruntledHawkFan]

Plus minus is a nothing stat.

 

[WarriorofTime]

Plus minus is a nothing stat.

Being on the ice for goals scored and not on the ice for goals against is a good thing for a DMan so “nothing stat” doesn’t seem right. It needs to be contextualized. In the case of Levshunov, the context only helps him. Unless someone is prepared to make the case that his +/- is heavily skewed via favorable puck luck.

 

[TLEH]

No one in here is a professional which is why I try and avoid saying someone is wrong. I’ve seen Levshunov plenty and I do see the problems and that’s my opinion. I’ll admit if I’m wrong though.

Ala Vlasic. I thought he was going to be Crevier. Ala Ian Mitchell, I praised him.

 

[Castle8130]

Levshunov projects as a top pairing defenseman that plays the PK. He is amazing at putting pressure on opposing forwards. He steps up at center-ice very well. The concerns lie with his decision making, but that has improved immensely over the past two years

 

[belfour30]

Is there a possibility Brandesegg-Nygaard could be there at the Tampa pick?

If so, if the Hawks don't get 1 I'd be very tempted to pick a RHD and go with a forward later.

 

[DisgruntledHawkFan]

Being on the ice for goals scored and not on the ice for goals against is a good thing for a DMan so “nothing stat” doesn’t seem right. It needs to be contextualized. In the case of Levshunov, the context only helps him. Unless someone is prepared to make the case that his +/- is heavily skewed via favorable puck luck.

You can do everything right and a goal goes in the net because of somebody else.

 

[DisgruntledHawkFan]

No one in here is a professional which is why I try and avoid saying someone is wrong. I’ve seen Levshunov plenty and I do see the problems and that’s my opinion. I’ll admit if I’m wrong though.

Ala Vlasic. I thought he was going to be Crevier. Ala Ian Mitchell, I praised him.

With you on Levshunov. His tools are incredible and when he pops he's incredible.

But his bad decisions are atrocious. He could be a franchise cornerstone or a guy playing in the KHL.

 

[EddieTheEagle]

I don't know why but I can see this current management of the Hawks shying away from Russian prospects with first round picks. Too much uncertainty for a management team that has yet to prove much in terms of results.

I know they took Kantserov at 44 last year but I just can't see it happening with picks 1-4 or Tampa's pick this season.

 

[Putt Pirate]

I have watched Lev a bit and as I have said, I just don’t see a top 3 pick. D are tough I get but watching just him during MSU games he does not exactly seem like a lock. Really meh to me. I would like (hope) to think we are looking elsewhere. I get RHD are tough to find but I do not think he is the 2nd best prospect unless this draft is total ass. Again, my opinion and I am not a pro.

 

[WarriorofTime]

I don't know why but I can see this current management of the Hawks shying away from Russian prospects with first round picks. Too much uncertainty for a management team that has yet to prove much in terms of results.

I know they took Kantserov at 44 last year but I just can't see it happening with picks 1-4 or Tampa's pick this season.

The issue is that if you lump Levshunov (Belarus) in, then like three prospects that basically anyone would probably put on the 2-7 best prospect list in whatever idiosyncratic order you may have are Russian/Belarusian (the McKenzie Mid-Season List polling NHL scouts them has 2, 3 and 6), so you're sort of tying one arm behind your scouting department's back if you put Demidov, Levshunov and Silayev all on your "Do Not Draft" as a matter of principle based on nationality.... assuming you don't win the Macklin lotto.