2024 NHL Draft Thread - Upd: Draft Lottery is May 7th

[Beukeboom Fan]

I 100% agree that Willy has been dynamite for a while now. 1A 1B with Matthews.

I just mean that at the end of the day Bedard and Korchinski, Nazar, Moore, Rinzel, Kaiser, EDM, Allan, Dach, Misiak, Greene, Reichel, Hayes...2024 1st Rounders..Vlasic

I mean who knows of these guys who will make it but at the end of the day almost none of them are over 22. By then you're paying WN 11M at 29/30 before you're really ready to compete. I'm just now sure its worth it.

I would assume their window to win opens up to start winning in 2025-2026.

Agree on the window - and at that point Nylander will be 30 YO. I think that he's likely to be elite at that point. I think the risk would be worth it because much of those prospects mentioned above would still be on their ELC, and it would be a huge benefit to have a guy who could drive a line allowing the prospects to contribute without being the focus.

The point that I would make is that it is VERY, VERY rare that a player as good as Nylander making it to UFA status at 28 YO. I think it's HIGHLY unlikely that TOR lets him get to UFA status and they'd move heaven and earth to re-sign him, even if it turfs their team next year.

 

[cassac]

Agree on the window - and at that point Nylander will be 30 YO. I think that he's likely to be elite at that point. I think the risk would be worth it because much of those prospects mentioned above would still be on their ELC, and it would be a huge benefit to have a guy who could drive a line allowing the prospects to contribute without being the focus.

The point that I would make is that it is VERY, VERY rare that a player as good as Nylander making it to UFA status at 28 YO. I think it's HIGHLY unlikely that TOR lets him get to UFA status and they'd move heaven and earth to re-sign him, even if it turfs their team next year.

I hope the Leafs do resign him. Would make it much more likely that Marner becomes available and I would rather have Marner over Nylander.

 

[Beukeboom Fan]

I hope the Leafs do resign him. Would make it much more likely that Marner becomes available and I would rather have Marner over Nylander.

Cassac - any particular reasons why? IMO, Marner's a superior playmaker and better defensively, so I could see him great riding shotgun with Berard, but I'm nervous about his play-off no shows. If we're looking for a guy to build the 2nd line around - Nylander's the much better choice.

 

[Muffinalt]

Im in love with this guy.

The Lawson Crouse comps are frankly embarrassing. He's using his size sure, but those highlights arent about his size advantage at all. Hes doing stuff shifty smaller skill guys usually do.

Before the season i wanted one of the RHDs, but seeing how well our D corps is developing and how much we need more talent at F, im all on the pick a forward with our top pick this year train. Especially seeing how well someone like Foligno plays with Bedard, we need a puck winning bigger body for him but one with decent skill/IQ to keep up with him.

Thats Lindstrom.

I think what tipped the scale for me for the full on crush (coz im naturally biased towards physical compete guys but there is always the worry of the IQ/skill questions) was EP's analysis of him when they ranked him 4th.

He only switched to center this year, and he's already showing crazy levels of offensive improvement. The floor is there (compete, speed, defense, checking and cycle game), and he shows great stuff offensively already (puck carrying, plus shot, playmaking, playdriving). If you combine that with signs of heavy improvement... thats a scary prospect.

He could be a supercharged Foligno for us, or a bigger Moore.

Ill be following him most closely from now on and Im hoping we end up with him!

 

[Pez68]

Not to be flippant but everybody scores a lot in juniors. Plenty of Point archetypes and DeBrincat archetypes go nowhere and it’s easy to say “team are dumb” when they hit. Drafting is hard.

Anyways Mack is likely a pipe dream as San Jose seems determined to out tank everybody. Eiserman on Bedard’s wing sounds pretty neat to me.

How many guys have scored 50+ in juniors twice, and didn't end up NHLers?

 

[cassac]

Cassac - any particular reasons why? IMO, Marner's a superior playmaker and better defensively, so I could see him great riding shotgun with Berard, but I'm nervous about his play-off no shows. If we're looking for a guy to build the 2nd line around - Nylander's the much better choice.

Mainly because he it a superior playmaker and his defensive play. I want him on the same line as Bedard. Between Nazar, Moore, etc., I think there is an outstanding second line already in the system.

 

[WarriorofTime]

How many guys have scored 50+ in juniors twice, and didn't end up NHLers?

I suppose if you make the category ultra-specific and boxed in like that, I can't answer there.

 

[Pez68]

I suppose if you make the category ultra-specific and boxed in like that, I can't answer there.

Well, that was the original point about DeBrincat. Countering it with "everybody scores a lot in juniors" would be like saying, I'm not sure McDavid will belong in the hall of fame. Everyone scores a lot in the NHL today. Lol

 

[WarriorofTime]

Well, that was the original point about DeBrincat. Countering it with "everybody scores a lot in juniors" would be like saying, I'm not sure McDavid will belong in the hall of fame. Everyone scores a lot in the NHL today. Lol

Well yes, we see that working backwards DeBrincat scored a lot in Juniors and then was able to carry that over to the NHL... All I said is sometimes players score a lot in Juniors and don't carry it over to the NHL. If you're just gonna say "well DeBrincat scored more than those guys" or "that guy didn't go back to back 50 goals" I don't really know what to say? Yes, literal Alex DeBrincat obviously carried his scoring over.

Jeremy Morin has the 6th most goals in USNDTP history (some great names have gone through), he was drafted around the same point in the draft (39th vs. 45th) as DeBrincat, he had similar Goals per Game in the OHL in his Age 18 season as DeBrincat (.85 vs. .81). Exact same profile? Hardly, but I can't exactly clone DeBrincat and find a bust especially doing this largely off memory.... But still, he could obviously score in Juniors but never could in the NHL and only was marginally able to in the AHL (career .339 GPG there).

 

[bwanajamba]

Im in love with this guy.

The Lawson Crouse comps are frankly embarrassing. He's using his size sure, but those highlights arent about his size advantage at all. Hes doing stuff shifty smaller skill guys usually do.

Before the season i wanted one of the RHDs, but seeing how well our D corps is developing and how much we need more talent at F, im all on the pick a forward with our top pick this year train. Especially seeing how well someone like Foligno plays with Bedard, we need a puck winning bigger body for him but one with decent skill/IQ to keep up with him.

Thats Lindstrom.

I think what tipped the scale for me for the full on crush (coz im naturally biased towards physical compete guys but there is always the worry of the IQ/skill questions) was EP's analysis of him when they ranked him 4th.

He only switched to center this year, and he's already showing crazy levels of offensive improvement. The floor is there (compete, speed, defense, checking and cycle game), and he shows great stuff offensively already (puck carrying, plus shot, playmaking, playdriving). If you combine that with signs of heavy improvement... thats a scary prospect.

He could be a supercharged Foligno for us, or a bigger Moore.

Ill be following him most closely from now on and Im hoping we end up with him!

This was a great video from EP. I'm not totally sold on him as a top 5 guy yet and I don't think concerns that he won't be as dominant once the physical gap closes are unjustified to this point, but he is producing a lot more than Crouse did as a draft eligible (both in raw numbers and relative to other guys in their leagues), and if he can keep that up for a full year it's a given that some team at the top of the draft is going to fall in love with the tools, especially with how hard the kid seems to play.

It's interesting though because at this point (obviously a lot can change in the coming months) he feels like he has less of a chance to be a true star than Catton and has more risk of not becoming a longtime solid top six guy than Helenius, so I wonder where he ends up in the pecking order for forwards outside of the big three

 

[x Tame Impala]

Im in love with this guy.

The Lawson Crouse comps are frankly embarrassing. He's using his size sure, but those highlights arent about his size advantage at all. Hes doing stuff shifty smaller skill guys usually do.

Before the season i wanted one of the RHDs, but seeing how well our D corps is developing and how much we need more talent at F, im all on the pick a forward with our top pick this year train. Especially seeing how well someone like Foligno plays with Bedard, we need a puck winning bigger body for him but one with decent skill/IQ to keep up with him.

Thats Lindstrom.

I think what tipped the scale for me for the full on crush (coz im naturally biased towards physical compete guys but there is always the worry of the IQ/skill questions) was EP's analysis of him when they ranked him 4th.

He only switched to center this year, and he's already showing crazy levels of offensive improvement. The floor is there (compete, speed, defense, checking and cycle game), and he shows great stuff offensively already (puck carrying, plus shot, playmaking, playdriving). If you combine that with signs of heavy improvement... thats a scary prospect.

He could be a supercharged Foligno for us, or a bigger Moore.

Ill be following him most closely from now on and Im hoping we end up with him!

Narrative-wise, with big guys like this don't you have to worry that the skills they're exhibiting are mostly possible because they're playing against teenagers? That the physical advantages they're benefiting from will be dampened playing against grown-men NHLers?

 

[bwanajamba]

Narrative-wise, with big guys like this don't you have to worry that the skills they're exhibiting are mostly possible because they're playing against teenagers? That the physical advantages they're benefiting from will be dampened playing against grown-men NHLers?

The video shows a lot of deft skill plays- that concern certainly exists but you could flip it and say with his size and speed you can feel pretty good that he will get space to make plays as a pro. As with any riser we'll have to reevaluate constantly as the season progresses but you can dream about the upside there if everything goes right

 

[belfour30]

I feel like the Hawks have a bit of an issue right now. They don't have a lot of 1st line/1st pair prospects but they have a glut of middle 6/bottom 4 guys.

As a matter of fact, I can't think of anyone outside of Bedard and Korchinski with super high upside.

Maybe you can make an argument for Moore and Nazar, but I wouldn't count on them being more than 2nd liners at best.

 

[Giovi]

I feel like the Hawks have a bit of an issue right now. They don't have a lot of 1st line/1st pair prospects but they have a glut of middle 6/bottom 4 guys.

As a matter of fact, I can't think of anyone outside of Bedard and Korchinski with super high upside.

Maybe you can make an argument for Moore and Nazar, but I wouldn't count on them being more than 2nd liners at best.

I'm confused. In the GDT you say you don't care about draft position. In this thread you say we don't have enough 1st line/1st pair guys.

Clearly, the most likely way the Hawks get those guys is by drafting as high as possible.

 

[belfour30]

I'm confused. In the GDT you say you don't care about draft position. In this thread you say we don't have enough 1st line/1st pair guys.

Clearly, the most likely way the Hawks get those guys is by drafting as high as possible.

I think you misunderstood. There's a lottery and the Hawks are bad enough that their draft position will take care of itself. Do I want them to draft higher in the 1st round? Sure. They're probably going have a top 5 pick, maybe 6th or 7th at worst, and that's probably with bad lottery luck and two teams from behind jumping them.

I also don't think Edmonton is gonna stay this bad forever. San Jose and Columbus on the other hand.....The Hawks aren't worse than San Jose and Columbus might be worse.

 

[u2wojo]

I feel like the Hawks have a bit of an issue right now. They don't have a lot of 1st line/1st pair prospects but they have a glut of middle 6/bottom 4 guys.

As a matter of fact, I can't think of anyone outside of Bedard and Korchinski with super high upside.

Maybe you can make an argument for Moore and Nazar, but I wouldn't count on them being more than 2nd liners at best.

I don't think that you are off in your thoughts. The hope has to be that one of Reichel, Moore, or Nazar do in fact end up being legit top line players (and not just faux ones by default riding shotgun with Bedard). I dont think that is absurd to hope one is a top liner and the other two top out as middle 6. The fate of the Hawks becoming a cup contender lie heavily on Bedard, Korchinski, and the Hawk first in '24 draft becoming top line/top pairing players. Pretty safe bet Bedard will get there. Have Korchinski hit as a legit top pairing/top PP, one of Reichel/Moore/Nazar develop into a legit top liner, and hit on that '24 1st as a top liner/top pairing guy and turn the corner in a hurry.

 

[Muffinalt]

Narrative-wise, with big guys like this don't you have to worry that the skills they're exhibiting are mostly possible because they're playing against teenagers? That the physical advantages they're benefiting from will be dampened playing against grown-men NHLers?

Agree with what @bwanajamba said.

Those concerns will always be warranted just because of the physics of things, but there is a lot of nuance in how they play.

Lindstrom is showing a lot of things on top of physical play: skill and dekes and hands, legit puck carrying, hesitation moves, reads and IQ, passing.

If he was only muscling guys out along the boards/in front of the goal/in rushes i would be worried. But hes dekeing, driving the play. On top of above average speed and compete. Plus most importantly i think the improvement factor. Hes improving even at the same level to quote 'exponentially', meaning he hasnt gained extra physical advantage but its his processing and hands that are improving.

It will be interesting to see how he turns out, but im a believer.

 

[belfour30]

I don't think that you are off in your thoughts. The hope has to be that one of Reichel, Moore, or Nazar do in fact end up being legit top line players (and not just faux ones by default riding shotgun with Bedard). I dont think that is absurd to hope one is a top liner and the other two top out as middle 6. The fate of the Hawks becoming a cup contender lie heavily on Bedard, Korchinski, and the Hawk first in '24 draft becoming top line/top pairing players. Pretty safe bet Bedard will get there. Have Korchinski hit as a legit top pairing/top PP, one of Reichel/Moore/Nazar develop into a legit top liner, and hit on that '24 1st as a top liner/top pairing guy and turn the corner in a hurry.

I mean ideally, Reichel-Nazar-Moore is a dynamite super speedy 2nd line.

I don't know what Reichel is or isn't yet but usually players that produce like he did at the AHL level turn out ok.

I think this year they have to start taking more chances on boom/bust guys outside of the top 10. Taking Cristall at 35 last year would have been a good start.

And once physical decline hits for Jones he's gonna be an issue, because he relies almost entirely on his tools. He's still good now but will be 30 next year.

 

[Giovi]

I think you misunderstood. There's a lottery and the Hawks are bad enough that their draft position will take care of itself. Do I want them to draft higher in the 1st round? Sure. They're probably going have a top 5 pick, maybe 6th or 7th at worst, and that's probably with bad lottery luck and two teams from behind jumping them.

I also don't think Edmonton is gonna stay this bad forever. San Jose and Columbus on the other hand.....The Hawks aren't worse than San Jose and Columbus might be worse.

I get what you're saying here, but it's still a case of, the worse the Hawks record is, the better their draft lotto odds are. Losses are still beneficial, long term. I like to see them win too, but wins are still counterproductive.

 

[WarriorofTime]

I feel like the Hawks have a bit of an issue right now. They don't have a lot of 1st line/1st pair prospects but they have a glut of middle 6/bottom 4 guys.

As a matter of fact, I can't think of anyone outside of Bedard and Korchinski with super high upside.

Maybe you can make an argument for Moore and Nazar, but I wouldn't count on them being more than 2nd liners at best.

I mean this with all due respect.. but you're far too neurotic. Bedard doesn't score a goal for a game or two, and you start panicking that he's not playing Juniors and was overhyped. You don't want the Hawks to full blown tank too long so they show a bit more, but also worry they don't have enough clear top line level prospects. Anyone that doesn't go really high in the Draft is somewhat of a longshot to be a clear top line level player just based on statistics, and outside of your own picks, it's hard to acquire those really high draft picks since the teams that possess them in the ordinary course are terrible and need them. The Hawks have a very high-end prospect pool by all metrics and a lot of draft capital to add on top of it. They'll probably also need to supplement with trade/free agent but they have a lot of future cap space to do that as well.

Nothing is a guarantee. Not even close to it. But they have a generational 18 year old on the roster and a lot of reason to be cautiously optimistic outside of that.

 

[belfour30]

I mean this with all due respect.. but you're far too neurotic. Bedard doesn't score a goal for a game or two, and you start panicking that he's not playing Juniors and was overhyped. You don't want the Hawks to full blown tank too long so they show a bit more, but also worry they don't have enough clear top line level prospects. Anyone that doesn't go really high in the Draft is somewhat of a longshot to be a clear top line level player just based on statistics. The Hawks have a very high-end prospect pool by all metrics and a lot of draft capital to add on top of it. They'll probably also need to supplement with trade/free agent but they have a lot of future cap space to do that as well.

Nothing is a guarantee. Not even close to it. But they have a generational 18 year old on the roster and a lot of reason to be cautiously optimistic outside of that.

No, I want them to full blown tank for at least this season and next. I'm concerned Bedard is just too good for that to happen.

There's a danger getting someone this good really early in the rebuild process in that they lift the team too quickly out of the range to continue stockpiling impact talent.

Kane was the finishing touch to the Hawks previous rebuild, and they were 5 years in already when they got him.

Pittsburgh had already picked MAF and Malkin high when they got Crosby.

Colorado already had MacKinnon and Rantanen (among others) when they drafted Makar.

The best comparable to the Hawks is Tampa as they got Stamkos and Hedman in consecutive years but they also hit big in the 2nd and 3rd rounds with Kucherov and Point.

There is a TON of pressure on Korchinski right now.

Think about how many years the teams that won cups recently picked high, even if they didn't all work out.

 

[clydesdale line]

No, I want them to full blown tank for at least this season and next. I'm concerned Bedard is just too good for that to happen.

You literally thought he was overhyped/overrated just a couple of weeks ago...

Let the process play out. When the Pens drafted Crosby, newsflash.. they were still terrible and Crosby had over 100 points his rookie year. The Hawks are still going to be terrible no matter how you look at it. This is the time you also put faith in the Hawks scouts to find a building block no matter if it's pick 1 (if they win the lottery which you also forgot can happen) or pick 10. They already have plenty of talent in the pipeline as it is. That's why Davidson has been stockpiling picks. He and the front office knew getting Bedard was a possibility. And they also had a plan B, C, D, etc if they didn't get him.

 

[DisgruntledHawkFan]

No, I want them to full blown tank for at least this season and next. I'm concerned Bedard is just too good for that to happen.

There's a danger getting someone this good really early in the rebuild process in that they lift the team too quickly out of the range to continue stockpiling impact talent.

Kane was the finishing touch to the Hawks previous rebuild, and they were 5 years in already when they got him.

Pittsburgh had already picked MAF and Malkin high when they got Crosby.

Colorado already had MacKinnon and Rantanen (among others) when they drafted Makar.

The best comparable to the Hawks is Tampa as they got Stamkos and Hedman in consecutive years but they also hit big in the 2nd and 3rd rounds with Kucherov and Point.

There is a TON of pressure on Korchinski right now.

Think about how many years the teams that won cups recently picked high, even if they didn't all work out.

The Blackhawks were trying to win games, they didn't even rebuild.

 

[ClydeLee]

The Blackhawks were trying to win games, they didn't even rebuild.

The Pens and Hawks had cheap/struggling ownership that was just cheap and not tearing down to rebuild. It gets lost. But people who expect to win when the stars are young don't get that. Those 2 teams were built in a different era.

I was all for the tank but any focus of being a playoff team in Bedards elc is pointless.

 

[DisgruntledHawkFan]

The Pens and Hawks had cheap/struggling ownership that was just cheap and not tearing down to rebuild. It gets lost. But people who expect to win when the stars are young don't get that. Those 2 teams were built in a different era.

I was all for the tank but any focus of being a playoff team in Bedards elc is pointless.

The Hawks signed a bunch of free agents in 05 to compete and still managed to finish with the third worst record.