Speculation: 2024/25 Trade Rumours, Speculation etc Thread

[JetsFan815]

I think it would be worse if a GM didn't try to load up at the deadline. I know it has real costs in draft capital - but that's magic beans in the future.

Not making moves at the deadline is the most dangerous game of all! For a GM's career, anyway. If you make moves and win, you're brilliant. If you make moves and lose, well - you tried. Can't win 'em all. Don't make moves and lose? That's on you...

You can't expect guys whose jobs are on the line to take a 10% chance that not acquiring at the deadline will result in some better team in 4 or 5 years. f*** that! We could all be working in Trump's salt mines in 5 years!

Chevy is in a unique position relative to other GMs that he has the level of job security that he can afford to think a bit long term. Esp after how the Hayes/Monahan/Tofolli experiments have ended up, I don't think he will get much if any heat if he doesn't make an "impact move" at the deadline.

 

[JetsFan815]

Do the Jets really go the own rental route with such a valuable asset? Personally I don’t think the decision on Ehlers comes down to the TDL. If he won’t sign I think Chevy tries to make the best hockey trade he can well before the TDL so it isn’t a giving up on the season move. If Ehlers is willing to make his long term signing as part of the deal I think we could get a nice player or 2 in return.

I have been on the record since pre-season/summer that the Jets need to "make Ehlers an offer he can't refuse", like a matching deal to Scheifele in AAV and 8 year term. That is going to be more money than any team will offer him in the open market and that will go a long way in sealing any rifts if they exist. It will also give him some assurance if he feels disrespected about his usage as if the Jets are paying him like a top winger but not using him as one, they'd just be cutting off their own nose.

 

[KingBogo]

I have been on the record since pre-season that the Jets need to "make Ehlers an offer he can't refuse", like a matching deal to Scheifele in AAV and 8 year term. That is going to be more money than any team will offer him in the open market and that will go a long way in sealing any rifts if they exist. It will also give him some assurance if he feels disrespected about his usage as if the Jets are playing him like a top winger but not using him as one, they'd just be cutting off their own nose.

I've been wondering if they pitch matching deals to both Ehlers this season and Connor next season to keep the core together. It seems to me it is Chevy's best strategy to make a run or 2 with this group.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

If Ehlers gives the team the best chance of making the playoffs, then you don't trade him. What do you think you'd get in return that could immediately help the team? For a player that is uncertain for the future of any team that traded for him. Are you going to let his agent starting talking to other teams in the middle of the season? There won't be any distractions inside the room this year. Guys are playing for pride, guys are playing for their careers, next contracts, etc. Playing for each other. That's not a bad problem to have, this year.

If he is still here at Xmas, and not extended, he will be an own rental and gone July 1.

 

[voyageur]

If he is still here at Xmas, and not extended, he will be an own rental and gone July 1.

Not a guarantee. There is still a season to play...and playoffs potentially. You can negotiate right to the last minute, like the Jets did with De Melo. Maybe he increases his value with a career year. Maybe winning is worth sticking around for. I would just let things play out before writing him off. Jets did him a huge favour letting him qualify his country for the Olympics. Maybe the favour gets returned.

 

[Adam da bomb]

I've been wondering if they pitch matching deals to both Ehlers this season and Connor next season to keep the core together. It seems to me it is Chevy's best strategy to make a run or 2 with this group.

No way kc signs for same as Ehlers. Kc is an elite goal scorer and that is the thing they get paid for. Not driving 5 v 5 not two way play. Just goals and points.

 

[Gm0ney]

Chevy is in a unique position relative to other GMs that he has the level of job security that he can afford to think a bit long term. Esp after how the Hayes/Monahan/Tofolli experiments have ended up, I don't think he will get much if any heat if he doesn't make an "impact move" at the deadline.

I think there's a ton of pressure to make an impact move if the team looks like a solid contender at Game 50. The Jets were in that position last year and the glaring weaknesses were the 2C and the powerplay - so they got Monahan. Then Vilardi goes down days before the deadline so they get Toffoli.

With Hayes, the Jets window was definitely looking open in 2018-19. Just look at that lineup (Scheifele, Wheeler, Buff, Trouba, Connor, Laine, Ehlers, Hellebuyck - it's basically the WCF team minus Enstrom and Stastny). No f***ing way you're keeping your powder dry at that deadline. And we're still waiting for that magic bean (Heinola) to amount to anything 5 years later.

Nah, everyone's going to be mad if you don't buy at the deadline when you look like you've got a contender. The fans, the team, the owners...

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Not a guarantee. There is still a season to play...and playoffs potentially. You can negotiate right to the last minute, like the Jets did with De Melo. Maybe he increases his value with a career year. Maybe winning is worth sticking around for. I would just let things play out before writing him off. Jets did him a huge favour letting him qualify his country for the Olympics. Maybe the favour gets returned.

Sure, anything is possible. But if he is not extended soon, one party or the other is not interested in committing. Either way he is playing for that next contract. The better his season, the more he gets in UFA.

 

[Channelcat]

Expiring: Ehlers, Pionk, Vilardi, Kupari, Appleton, Iofallo, Namestikov, Samberg and more. Currently only 2M in cap space.

Iafallo is the only obvious one here. I'm a big fan of Pionks game, but he's as good as gone as well. I suspect that Chevy goes hard on signing Ehlers, but it's kinda up to Nik, if I had to put money on it, I'd say he walks

 

[Adam da bomb]

Expiring: Ehlers, Pionk, Vilardi, Kupari, Appleton, Iofallo, Namestikov, Samberg and more. Currently only 2M in cap space.

Vilardi is the only obvious one here. I'm a big fan of Pionks game, but he's as good as gone as well. I suspect that Chevy goes hard on signing Ehlers, but it's kinda up to Nik, if I had to put money on it, I'd say he walks

I can see them re-signing berg. Iofollo’s 4 Milan be spent better elsewhere than 4th line.

 

[Jet]

He hasn’t done a bad job giving and taking to balance the sheet but last season was a whopper (1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th) and he has real work to do to recoup those. The issue is I don’t think it helped the team in the playoffs either. Given the givens I would prefer we actually stay ahead on the ledger. I have no problem moving draft capital for assets but not without some term coming back.

I think it's a little more complicated than that.

I don't think that dealing draft picks is a zero sum game - you have to consider what you get and consider years of service, and contemplate whether that pick might outperform the player you acquired for it.

Then you have to also consider players that you in turn have traded for picks and how they might have replenished the draft/ prospect pool.

Only then do I think you can truly determine organizational building.

So yes, Chevy may have traded away some draft picks for players who haven't panned out, but he's also gained picks and players in multiples for deals.

At the end of the day, the performance of the Jets and Moose, along with what we have in the amateur system and how they all mature and feed into the next level really shows how a GM is doing with player management.

Obviously we're doing pretty well at the top level (I know no cup and the playoffs have been a bomb but the team is a perenial playoff team and that is a significant feat in the NHL).

It will be interesting to see how the Moose do this year, they started so bad last season but made it into the playoffs. Our youngsters are a bit older, and I think we've improved top to bottom there.

As for the amateur ranks, I won't comment too much as I only casually follow our top prospects, I don't pay a lot of attention to them until they are looking like they have a shot to impact the pro ranks.

 

[ps241]

I think it would be worse if a GM didn't try to load up at the deadline. I know it has real costs in draft capital - but that's magic beans in the future.

Not making moves at the deadline is the most dangerous game of all! For a GM's career, anyway. If you make moves and win, you're brilliant. If you make moves and lose, well - you tried. Can't win 'em all. Don't make moves and lose? That's on you...

You can't expect guys whose jobs are on the line to take a 10% chance that not acquiring at the deadline will result in some better team in 4 or 5 years. f*** that! We could all be working in Trump's salt mines in 5 years!

Well you have conventional wisdom on your side, that’s almost always how it’s been done and you made a good point, I think pressure is a big piece of why GM's do it.

 

[Channelcat]

I can see them re-signing berg. Iofollo’s 4 Milan be spent better elsewhere than 4th line.

I edited my post, ooops that made no sense. Not signing Iafallo is an obvious choice, signing Vilardi is a priority imho.

 

[KingBogo]

I can see them re-signing berg. Iofollo’s 4 Milan be spent better elsewhere than 4th line.

But no one is going to pay Iafallo $4 million, so Chevy doesn't have to offer him that to re-sign if he wants to and Iafallo wants to stay. Same goes for Pionk. Agreed Samberg is guaranteed to be re-signed as a pending RFA and likely with a big raise on a long term deal.

 

[Weezeric]

But no one is going to pay Iafallo $4 million, so Chevy doesn't have to offer him that to re-sign if he wants to and Iafallo wants to stay. Same goes for Pionk. Agreed Samberg is guaranteed to be re-signed as a pending RFA and likely with a big raise on a long term deal.

The Jets have tons of cap space to sign everyone

 

[LowLefty]

Well you have conventional wisdom on your side, that’s almost always how it’s been done and you made a good point, I think pressure is a big piece of why GM's do it.

I agree with you and the OP - GM's will make these deals all day long if they see their team as a potential winner that could use some help.
The hard part is getting it right.

If the adds don't pan out, the concept of trading / adding players at the deadline is questioned when it's really about the players added, how they fit, how motivated are they to win in Wpg, and how they feel in general about being part of a deadline deal. And that's tough when you really don't know the answer to those questions until after the deal is done.

The only easy part of this is questioning the deals after the fact, if they don't pan out - why did we do that? It cost us picks.

 

[KingBogo]

I think it's a little more complicated than that.

I don't think that dealing draft picks is a zero sum game - you have to consider what you get and consider years of service, and contemplate whether that pick might outperform the player you acquired for it.

Then you have to also consider players that you in turn have traded for picks and how they might have replenished the draft/ prospect pool.

Only then do I think you can truly determine organizational building.

So yes, Chevy may have traded away some draft picks for players who haven't panned out, but he's also gained picks and players in multiples for deals.

At the end of the day, the performance of the Jets and Moose, along with what we have in the amateur system and how they all mature and feed into the next level really shows how a GM is doing with player management.

Obviously we're doing pretty well at the top level (I know no cup and the playoffs have been a bomb but the team is a perenial playoff team and that is a significant feat in the NHL).

It will be interesting to see how the Moose do this year, they started so bad last season but made it into the playoffs. Our youngsters are a bit older, and I think we've improved top to bottom there.

As for the amateur ranks, I won't comment too much as I only casually follow our top prospects, I don't pay a lot of attention to them until they are looking like they have a shot to impact the pro ranks.

In terms of 1st and 2nd round picks, I've always seen Chevy as a GM who will use them as needed in trades, but also try and recoup similar picks in other trades so the net result is approximately even over the long term. In his 13 years at the helm (starting with the 2012 draft as he was only hired in the run up to the 2011 draft) he has had 14, 1st round picks and 11, 2nd round picks, so he has stayed relatively even with a slight + on 1st round picks and a slight - on 2nd round picks.

 

[Huffer]

Personal hopes at this point:

1) We're able to re-sign Ehlers to something that works
2) Lambert and Chibrikov improve on good seasons last year and become playoff black aces (sorry Moose).
2b) Lambert himself plays well enough to be thought of as a C replacement if needed.
3) For TD additions, we don't trade away any 1sts or top prospects (Lambert, Salo, Yager, Chibs, and maybe Barlow). We go the depth route and add players like Nino, Names, for lesser costs.
4) If we HAVE to add a C for a high cost (Names and Lambert not options), I hope we start looking for players with some term.

 

[Adam da bomb]

Personal hopes at this point:

1) We're able to re-sign Ehlers to something that works
2) Lambert and Chibrikov improve on good seasons last year and become playoff black aces (sorry Moose).
2b) Lambert himself plays well enough to be thought of as a C replacement if needed.
3) For TD additions, we don't trade away any 1sts or top prospects (Lambert, Salo, Yager, Chibs, and maybe Barlow). We go the depth route and add players like Nino, Names, for lesser costs.
4) If we HAVE to add a C for a high cost (Names and Lambert not options), I hope we start looking for players with some term.

I can guarantee most of that doesn't happen. If the jets are in the playoff picture they don't care about their 1st as a guy drafted in the mid to late 20's won't be an impact player in the window.
If we are in the playoff picture they want someone who can make a real difference not just depth.
If they see Lambert as the future 2c they don't want someone with term who will block that.
If the Jets are in the playoffs its not in their nature to worry about black aces, but, want to have experienced guys they feel they can rely on.

The Ehlers I have no predictions.

 

[JetsFan815]

I think there's a ton of pressure to make an impact move if the team looks like a solid contender at Game 50. The Jets were in that position last year and the glaring weaknesses were the 2C and the powerplay - so they got Monahan. Then Vilardi goes down days before the deadline so they get Toffoli.

With Hayes, the Jets window was definitely looking open in 2018-19. Just look at that lineup (Scheifele, Wheeler, Buff, Trouba, Connor, Laine, Ehlers, Hellebuyck - it's basically the WCF team minus Enstrom and Stastny). No f***ing way you're keeping your powder dry at that deadline. And we're still waiting for that magic bean (Heinola) to amount to anything 5 years later.

Nah, everyone's going to be mad if you don't buy at the deadline when you look like you've got a contender. The fans, the team, the owners...

I can see that perspective but I also feel that you can do that (be a big time buyer by which I mean unloading 1st and 2nd round picks) only so often. The Jets did that last season and for me I would not be comfortable unloading even more 1st and 2nd round picks this deadline regardless of where they are in the standings unless there is term coming back.

But I imagine a lot of fans and perhaps even management might feel your way. I just don't feel that's a path to success in a market like Winnipeg, esp when our "impact" deadline buys lately have been your Hayes' and Monahans of the world who only move the needle so far.

Personal hopes at this point:

1) We're able to re-sign Ehlers to something that works
2) Lambert and Chibrikov improve on good seasons last year and become playoff black aces (sorry Moose).
2b) Lambert himself plays well enough to be thought of as a C replacement if needed.
3) For TD additions, we don't trade away any 1sts or top prospects (Lambert, Salo, Yager, Chibs, and maybe Barlow). We go the depth route and add players like Nino, Names, for lesser costs.
4) If we HAVE to add a C for a high cost (Names and Lambert not options), I hope we start looking for players with some term.

This is indeed the best case scenario... esp 1 and 2.

 

[Huffer]

I can guarantee most of that doesn't happen. If the jets are in the playoff picture they don't care about their 1st as a guy drafted in the mid to late 20's won't be an impact player in the window.
If we are in the playoff picture they want someone who can make a real difference not just depth.
If they see Lambert as the future 2c they don't want someone with term who will block that.
If the Jets are in the playoffs its not in their nature to worry about black aces, but, want to have experienced guys they feel they can rely on.

The Ehlers I have no predictions.

Based on history I agree, but it's still what I would prefer.

 

[WolfHouse]

But no one is going to pay Iafallo $4 million, so Chevy doesn't have to offer him that to re-sign if he wants to and Iafallo wants to stay. Same goes for Pionk. Agreed Samberg is guaranteed to be re-signed as a pending RFA and likely with a big raise on a long term deal.

If Pionk puts up decent numbers this season, I could see teams competing to sign him... right or wrong. He's still an 'offensive' right shot

 

[voyageur]

But no one is going to pay Iafallo $4 million, so Chevy doesn't have to offer him that to re-sign if he wants to and Iafallo wants to stay. Same goes for Pionk. Agreed Samberg is guaranteed to be re-signed as a pending RFA and likely with a big raise on a long term deal.

You would think Pionk's numbers go up if he keeps playing the way he is. His career year will trump De Melo's by a lot. De Melo is also more likely to age out from wear and tear in his contract. But I see Samberg and Pionk signing the same term length. There's chemistry between them on and off the ice. You can't necessarily separate their success from each other. They had some success last year too, without much fanfare.

 

[WolfHouse]

You would think Pionk's numbers go up if he keeps playing the way he is. His career year will trump De Melo's by a lot. De Melo is also more likely to age out from wear and tear in his contract. But I see Samberg and Pionk signing the same term length. There's chemistry between them on and off the ice. You can't necessarily separate their success from each other. They had some success last year too, without much fanfare.

Its like a long lost dream for Pionk to hit 40+ points again...

 

[voyageur]

Its like a long lost dream for Pionk to hit 40+ points again...

So far he seems to be adapting to Chynoweth's systems better than Melo. Wouldn't you say, and the stats too?