2024-25 Roster Thread #1: The Beginninging

[Cody Webster]

Briere was 5'9 and played in the "clutch and grab" era.
Think he cares about size?
His first draft he takes Michkov (5'10), Barkey (5'8), Ciernak (5'10)

But passed on Buium because of, well, size

 

[deadhead]

But passed on Buium because of, well, size

Buium is 6'0. Doubt it was really about size. That would make sense if he was 5'10.
Notice Parekh is the same size and went at #8.

If there was some factor they were concerned about, why would they be honest about it?

Don't piss off a player/agent unnecessarily, and don't tell other GMs about the attributes in prospects that matter/concern you.

 

[CerpinTaxt]

1D's dont just drop to 12/13 for no reason. As many others have said the fact that his agent was the same as CGs probably made this a non starter especially for the Flyers where I'm sure there is bad blood.

As has been stated previously the most likely reason is front office ineptitude. I think Tulsky in Carolina is the only GM with a brain

 

[JojoTheWhale]

Way too small of a sample size to start drawing conclusions about the team, but I like setting the table before we have those discussions.

Some minor positives like movement and in-close Shot generation on the PP, but overall one horrendous road trip. Just putrid.

 

[deadhead]

But also kinda weird. Like the black hole from the right side on offense.

 

[Cody Webster]

Buium is 6'0. Doubt it was really about size. That would make sense if he was 5'10.
Notice Parekh is the same size and went at #8.

If there was some factor they were concerned about, why would they be honest about it?

Don't piss off a player/agent unnecessarily, and don't tell other GMs about the attributes in prospects that matter/concern you.

Briere literally said they have enough smaller defenseman and what does Parekh going at 8 have anything to do with the Flyers?

 

[deadhead]

As has been stated previously the most likely reason is front office ineptitude. I think Tulsky in Carolina is the only GM with a brain

Maybe, Carolina stockpiled a lot of 2nd and 3rd rd picks starting in 2019.
15 between 2019 and 2022.
So far, none have made an impact.
Only Jarvis #13, is starting for them.

 

[Rebels57]

We have any idea who they would have taken if MM didn't drop to them?

I always assumed Ryan Leonard.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

We have any idea who they would have taken if MM didn't drop to them?

Reasonable to conclude it would have been Reinbacher given that this was who they supposedly would have taken with the Montreal pick if it was traded for Gauthier.

 

[BringBackHakstol]

Their NHL team is already stacked. Little different from the Flyers...

 

[deadhead]

Briere literally said they have enough smaller defenseman and what does Parekh going at 8 have anything to do with the Flyers?

Has to do with maybe Buium wasn't rated as highly by NHL GMs as by amateur rankings.

I think it may have come down to scarcity, puck moving offensively skilled D-men are more common as the game has become less physical, but true two way centers are really rare. A lot of centers at lower levels end up as wings in the NHL. So if you can grab a top six center who can stay at that position in the NHL, jump on him.

This is like the NFL, where some positions get premiums b/c it's hard to find top players at those spots.

I think in the NHL the rankings may be:

Two way big physical mobile D-men
Two way full sized centers
Offense first D-men
Two way wings
Offense first centers
Offense first wings
Defense first D-men
Defense first forwards

Or something like that.
If you're elite in one dimension, that compensates for being a liability in other dimensions.

Example, Thomas v Kyrou, I think St Louis overpaid Kyrou relative to Thomas, b/c Thomas is the better overall player.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

Has to do with maybe Buium wasn't rated as highly by NHL GMs as by amateur rankings.

Exactly who do you think participates in McKenzie’s survey?!

 

[Beef Invictus]

But also kinda weird. Like the black hole from the right side on offense.

Red is Good on the offence map which I've always had strongly mixed feelings on (Just make Blue Good and Red Bad for all please), but my favorite part of that offense map is the little tiny blip directly to the side of the net. That right there is Michkov. And is likely to continue to be. That's a place where he does work, and considering everyone knows he is going to be there trying to overpower the goalie...he still does it. He is inevitable. Already.

Anyway, the way most offensive generation is off towards the sides is a continuation of what Tortorella had the team doing last season. North/South passing setting up those chances. Which in turn means the goalie is only shuffling a bit to change angles from basically corner to circles. Very little east-west to set up slot shots or cross-ice chances. In consequence, not a lot of ES offensive production. The PP being surprisingly good is covering a lot of sins at the moment.

The past pattern was that the team started with more east-west passing at this stage and it would be allowed to continue until approximately January, when Tortorella would decree it is time to buckle down for the playoffs and then the team's focus would become almost exclusively north-south focused with east-west passing being limited to pretty much within the same half of the ice.

I do not like that mode, and I do not like this being the starting mode.

Also, that heavy shot generation mass on the right side probably has something to do with the team's glut of right wingers, I bet. It's amusing to me when traits like that show up in the data.

 

[deadhead]

Exactly who do you think participates in McKenzie’s survey?!

Revealed preference. If Buium was really considered top 5, someone would have jumped on him.

I think it comes down to variance of perceptions, that is, he might have had a smaller variance of expectations while other players had larger variance. So on average, would have ranked above players who a minority of GMs saw having higher ceilings.

Since it only takes one GM, if a GM sees someone having a higher upside they may take that player first.
Buium was old (Dec 7 B-day) for his draft class, so the perception may have been that he was closer to his ceiling, even though his mean was higher, than other top prospects.
NJ for example, might have seen Silayev with a higher upside (despite higher risk b/c of limited track record, though was in KHL at 17).

Could be "winner's curse" or just a lower level of risk aversion (more willing to gamble on ceiling).

The interesting choice was Catton at #8, mediocre D-1, great D-0 season, Jan B-day, hadn't filled out at 5'11 172. Was this a "mean" pick or an upside pick?

 

[deadhead]

Red is Good on the offence map which I've always had strongly mixed feelings on (Just make Blue Good and Red Bad for all please), but my favorite part of that offense map is the little tiny blip directly to the side of the net. That right there is Michkov. And is likely to continue to be. That's a place where he does work, and considering everyone knows he is going to be there trying to overpower the goalie...he still does it. He is inevitable. Already.

Anyway, the way most offensive generation is off towards the sides is a continuation of what Tortorella had the team doing last season. North/South passing setting up those chances. Which in turn means the goalie is only shuffling a bit to change angles from basically corner to circles. Very little east-west to set up slot shots or cross-ice chances. In consequence, not a lot of ES offensive production. The PP being surprisingly good is covering a lot of sins at the moment.

The past pattern was that the team started with more east-west passing at this stage and it would be allowed to continue until approximately January, when Tortorella would decree it is time to buckle down for the playoffs and then the team's focus would become almost exclusively north-south focused with east-west passing being limited to pretty much within the same half of the ice.

I do not like that mode, and I do not like this being the starting mode.

Also, that heavy shot generation mass on the right side probably has something to do with the team's glut of right wingers, I bet. It's amusing to me when traits like that show up in the data.

East West passing is dangerous, especially at the top of the O-zone where a bad pass can result in an odd man rush the other way.

So it depends on the player, I don't want TK or Tippett doing it too often b/c both are mistake prone. Michkov, as he gains experience, no problem. Same with Foerster and Brink.

Comes down to risk/reward, some players have a good feel when to take chances, not just E/W passes but D-men pinching (Drysdale is still learning when). Others can't be trusted.

I think Torts won't shackle Michkov b/c he trusts his instincts.
Other young forwards have a tendency to force the issue and don't recognize when the passing lane is an illusion. Some of that is experience, some is anticipation and vision.

It's a tough balance, you want players to be aggressive without being stupid.

Brink's a good example, right now he forces too many passes, but given his history, I think it's more adjusting to the NHL windows and learning when he can get away with those passes.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

Revealed preference. If Buium was really considered top 5, someone would have jumped on him.

I think it comes down to variance of perceptions, that is, he might have had a smaller variance of expectations while other players had larger variance. So on average, would have ranked above players who a minority of GMs saw having higher ceilings.

Since it only takes one GM, if a GM sees someone having a higher upside they may take that player first.
Buium was old (Dec 7 B-day) for his draft class, so the perception may have been that he was closer to his ceiling, even though his mean was higher, than other top prospects.
NJ for example, might have seen Silayev with a higher upside (despite higher risk b/c of limited track record, though was in KHL at 17).

Could be "winner's curse" or just a lower level of risk aversion (more willing to gamble on ceiling).

The interesting choice was Catton at #8, mediocre D-1, great D-0 season, Jan B-day, hadn't filled out at 5'11 172. Was this a "mean" pick or an upside pick?

I object to the idea that NHL orgs are this comfortable with risk. Or at least that they parse it this well.

As we’ve discussed before, these falls often happen because a player may be 2nd on a string of boards in a row. Sometimes there’s nothing to read into them. They can just be a function of the sequencing of the standings. It’s the same mechanic you’ve described here, but for a reason that makes it ring more true to me.

 

[Beef Invictus]

East West passing is dangerous, especially at the top of the O-zone where a bad pass can result in an odd man rush the other way.

So it depends on the player, I don't want TK or Tippett doing it too often b/c both are mistake prone. Michkov, as he gains experience, no problem. Same with Foerster and Brink.

Comes down to risk/reward, some players have a good feel when to take chances, not just E/W passes but D-men pinching (Drysdale is still learning when). Others can't be trusted.

I think Torts won't shackle Michkov b/c he trusts his instincts.
Other young forwards have a tendency to force the issue and don't recognize when the passing lane is an illusion. Some of that is experience, some is anticipation and vision.

It's a tough balance, you want players to be aggressive without being stupid.

Brink's a good example, right now he forces too many passes, but given his history, I think it's more adjusting to the NHL windows and learning when he can get away with those passes.

It's not a tough balance, a mandate against it like Tortorella runs is ridiculous and puts a hard ceiling on offensive generation. It makes goalies' lives as easy as possible. The team has always been at its best under him before he gets in front of the press and declares it's time to focus on playing the right way. And does away with it.

 

[FlyerNutter]

Revealed preference. If Buium was really considered top 5, someone would have jumped on him.

I think it comes down to variance of perceptions, that is, he might have had a smaller variance of expectations while other players had larger variance. So on average, would have ranked above players who a minority of GMs saw having higher ceilings.

Since it only takes one GM, if a GM sees someone having a higher upside they may take that player first.
Buium was old (Dec 7 B-day) for his draft class, so the perception may have been that he was closer to his ceiling, even though his mean was higher, than other top prospects.
NJ for example, might have seen Silayev with a higher upside (despite higher risk b/c of limited track record, though was in KHL at 17).

Could be "winner's curse" or just a lower level of risk aversion (more willing to gamble on ceiling).

The interesting choice was Catton at #8, mediocre D-1, great D-0 season, Jan B-day, hadn't filled out at 5'11 172. Was this a "mean" pick or an upside pick?

What forced the Flyers from picking outside of the top 4, and being able to choose a different tier of player - other than their own moronic philosophies?

Arguing over Buium, and Luchanko is cute. How about Bedard vs Michkov or Celebrini vs Luchanko.

 

[Ironmanrulez]

I'd be more confident the Flyers could draft things like a #1 PP quarterback dman outside the top five if they didn't pay to get rid of the last one they had, and then replace him by overpaying for a $5 million dollar 6th defenceman.

It's not so much it's impossible to do, it's that this team's talent evaluation is so piss poor I don't think they're suited to do anything that shrewd. They only picked up Michkov because an absolute no-brainer decision fell into their lap, none of their other moves inspire any confidence in me.

And 80% of people said it before the trades! It isnt hindsight!

 

[Rebels57]

Red is Good on the offence map which I've always had strongly mixed feelings on (Just make Blue Good and Red Bad for all please), but my favorite part of that offense map is the little tiny blip directly to the side of the net. That right there is Michkov. And is likely to continue to be. That's a place where he does work, and considering everyone knows he is going to be there trying to overpower the goalie...he still does it. He is inevitable. Already.

Anyway, the way most offensive generation is off towards the sides is a continuation of what Tortorella had the team doing last season. North/South passing setting up those chances. Which in turn means the goalie is only shuffling a bit to change angles from basically corner to circles. Very little east-west to set up slot shots or cross-ice chances. In consequence, not a lot of ES offensive production. The PP being surprisingly good is covering a lot of sins at the moment.

The past pattern was that the team started with more east-west passing at this stage and it would be allowed to continue until approximately January, when Tortorella would decree it is time to buckle down for the playoffs and then the team's focus would become almost exclusively north-south focused with east-west passing being limited to pretty much within the same half of the ice.

I do not like that mode, and I do not like this being the starting mode.

Also, that heavy shot generation mass on the right side probably has something to do with the team's glut of right wingers, I bet. It's amusing to me when traits like that show up in the data.

This is a great article from 2019 that shows how much shooting % increases when there an East-West pass across the middle of the ice, or the Royal Road, just prior to the shot attempt.

The Most Important Line on the Ice You've Never Heard Of

The 'Royal Road' and why it leads to more goals

www.omha.net

 

[MrGuyPerson]

I am a little surprised no one has discussed it here yet. Feddy Tov is certainly a concern.

From my perspective I think the solution is rather simple. Some may be opposed, but I think it helps everyone. Call up Kolosov and carry 3 goalies this season. That solves Kolosov wanting to dip out to Europe and possibly goalie 2. While I am concerned about starting Feddy between the pipes, if the reports that he and Meech are close are true and Meech wants Feddy to stay, I would be thrilled to keep him around as the captain of locker room vibes for Russian players and maybe give him a game or two a month.

Now, carrying 3 goalies isn't necessarily a bad idea, but the roster is full. That is solved with one rather easy move. Send Jett back to Guelph. I know that take may not be popular. Everyone is thrilled he looks solid in the NHL at 17. I'm certainly higher on him than I was, but... let's all be real for second and think about it like this. Has Jett being in the lineup provided an amount of positive benefit that out weighs the amount of Negative Feddy has brought to the lineup? The answer, least from my perspective, is : I am not sure it possible for single skater to provide enough positive to outweigh the massive negative between the pipes from Feddy.

Why Jett though? There are actually various reasons. First and Foremost he is child and unlike some, I think going back to Junior and leading canadas WJC team will benefit the growth of his offensive game. Secondly, it is so much smarter contractually. Not only would going back potentially help him, but you don't burn a year off his ELC. Thirdly, and this is my main reason. It may require some soul searching to be neautral, but from a neautral view through 4 games has Jett actually made all that big of an impact? And has the small amount of good impact he has had really been that irreplaceable to the point it justifies burning a year off his elc? If your answer is anything, but "no" I am not sure we saw the games the way. He has been solid. Solid isn't good. Solid isn't bad either, but... is not being awful really the standard this franchise wants to shoot for? You could even tell this kid you have to do it to solve the goalie problem, but "hey, you blew us away. You can hold youre own here, but we think you are capable of more. Work hard this season and force us to regret sending you back"

If Jett is gone, play coots & Laughton more. I know some fans hate them for some reason, laughton probably more so than coots, but they are good hockey players. Both thrived last game and I wouldn't be opposed to letting coots park his massive frame in front of the Tendy on one of the PP units. Let Laughton loose too. The only kid that should be force fed minutes on this team is meech(Unless he is playing truly awful). All other kids, while still deserving of consistent playing time through rolling the lines, need to start banging the door down. Prove they deserve more. This team needs another star. It could easily be one of these kids on the team. It is time for them to prove that.

 

[GKJ]

I think literally everyone is talking about being concerned with Fedotov

 

[Beef Invictus]

This is a great article from 2019 that shows how much shooting % increases when there an East-West pass across the middle of the ice, or the Royal Road, just prior to the shot attempt.

The Most Important Line on the Ice You've Never Heard Of

The 'Royal Road' and why it leads to more goals

www.omha.net

And this has been precisely a criticism I have had against Tortorella for ages; pay attention to how often his teams pass across the far goalpost. It doesn't take careful tallying to leave any game aware that they barely try it relative to opponents. Goalies are covering half the ice at a time.

It all stems from his treatment of offense as another form of defense. Keep the puck on the other end, do nothing to risk giving it to the other team. He doesn't care that it slashes the chances of scoring, because scoring isn't the point. Preventing the other team from scoring is. Been talking about it since before he was hired.