2024-25 Roster Thread #1: The Beginninging

[Cody Webster]

Briere was 5'9 and played in the "clutch and grab" era.
Think he cares about size?
His first draft he takes Michkov (5'10), Barkey (5'8), Ciernak (5'10)

But passed on Buium because of, well, size

 

[deadhead]

But passed on Buium because of, well, size

Buium is 6'0. Doubt it was really about size. That would make sense if he was 5'10.
Notice Parekh is the same size and went at #8.

If there was some factor they were concerned about, why would they be honest about it?

Don't piss off a player/agent unnecessarily, and don't tell other GMs about the attributes in prospects that matter/concern you.

 

[CerpinTaxt]

1D's dont just drop to 12/13 for no reason. As many others have said the fact that his agent was the same as CGs probably made this a non starter especially for the Flyers where I'm sure there is bad blood.

As has been stated previously the most likely reason is front office ineptitude. I think Tulsky in Carolina is the only GM with a brain

 

[JojoTheWhale]

Way too small of a sample size to start drawing conclusions about the team, but I like setting the table before we have those discussions.

Some minor positives like movement and in-close Shot generation on the PP, but overall one horrendous road trip. Just putrid.

 

[deadhead]

But also kinda weird. Like the black hole from the right side on offense.

 

[Cody Webster]

Buium is 6'0. Doubt it was really about size. That would make sense if he was 5'10.
Notice Parekh is the same size and went at #8.

If there was some factor they were concerned about, why would they be honest about it?

Don't piss off a player/agent unnecessarily, and don't tell other GMs about the attributes in prospects that matter/concern you.

Briere literally said they have enough smaller defenseman and what does Parekh going at 8 have anything to do with the Flyers?

 

[deadhead]

As has been stated previously the most likely reason is front office ineptitude. I think Tulsky in Carolina is the only GM with a brain

Maybe, Carolina stockpiled a lot of 2nd and 3rd rd picks starting in 2019.
15 between 2019 and 2022.
So far, none have made an impact.
Only Jarvis #13, is starting for them.

 

[Rebels57]

We have any idea who they would have taken if MM didn't drop to them?

I always assumed Ryan Leonard.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

We have any idea who they would have taken if MM didn't drop to them?

Reasonable to conclude it would have been Reinbacher given that this was who they supposedly would have taken with the Montreal pick if it was traded for Gauthier.

 

[BringBackHakstol]

Their NHL team is already stacked. Little different from the Flyers...

 

[deadhead]

Briere literally said they have enough smaller defenseman and what does Parekh going at 8 have anything to do with the Flyers?

Has to do with maybe Buium wasn't rated as highly by NHL GMs as by amateur rankings.

I think it may have come down to scarcity, puck moving offensively skilled D-men are more common as the game has become less physical, but true two way centers are really rare. A lot of centers at lower levels end up as wings in the NHL. So if you can grab a top six center who can stay at that position in the NHL, jump on him.

This is like the NFL, where some positions get premiums b/c it's hard to find top players at those spots.

I think in the NHL the rankings may be:

Two way big physical mobile D-men
Two way full sized centers
Offense first D-men
Two way wings
Offense first centers
Offense first wings
Defense first D-men
Defense first forwards

Or something like that.
If you're elite in one dimension, that compensates for being a liability in other dimensions.

Example, Thomas v Kyrou, I think St Louis overpaid Kyrou relative to Thomas, b/c Thomas is the better overall player.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

Has to do with maybe Buium wasn't rated as highly by NHL GMs as by amateur rankings.

Exactly who do you think participates in McKenzie’s survey?!

 

[Beef Invictus]

But also kinda weird. Like the black hole from the right side on offense.

Red is Good on the offence map which I've always had strongly mixed feelings on (Just make Blue Good and Red Bad for all please), but my favorite part of that offense map is the little tiny blip directly to the side of the net. That right there is Michkov. And is likely to continue to be. That's a place where he does work, and considering everyone knows he is going to be there trying to overpower the goalie...he still does it. He is inevitable. Already.

Anyway, the way most offensive generation is off towards the sides is a continuation of what Tortorella had the team doing last season. North/South passing setting up those chances. Which in turn means the goalie is only shuffling a bit to change angles from basically corner to circles. Very little east-west to set up slot shots or cross-ice chances. In consequence, not a lot of ES offensive production. The PP being surprisingly good is covering a lot of sins at the moment.

The past pattern was that the team started with more east-west passing at this stage and it would be allowed to continue until approximately January, when Tortorella would decree it is time to buckle down for the playoffs and then the team's focus would become almost exclusively north-south focused with east-west passing being limited to pretty much within the same half of the ice.

I do not like that mode, and I do not like this being the starting mode.

Also, that heavy shot generation mass on the right side probably has something to do with the team's glut of right wingers, I bet. It's amusing to me when traits like that show up in the data.

 

[deadhead]

Exactly who do you think participates in McKenzie’s survey?!

Revealed preference. If Buium was really considered top 5, someone would have jumped on him.

I think it comes down to variance of perceptions, that is, he might have had a smaller variance of expectations while other players had larger variance. So on average, would have ranked above players who a minority of GMs saw having higher ceilings.

Since it only takes one GM, if a GM sees someone having a higher upside they may take that player first.
Buium was old (Dec 7 B-day) for his draft class, so the perception may have been that he was closer to his ceiling, even though his mean was higher, than other top prospects.
NJ for example, might have seen Silayev with a higher upside (despite higher risk b/c of limited track record, though was in KHL at 17).

Could be "winner's curse" or just a lower level of risk aversion (more willing to gamble on ceiling).

The interesting choice was Catton at #8, mediocre D-1, great D-0 season, Jan B-day, hadn't filled out at 5'11 172. Was this a "mean" pick or an upside pick?

 

[deadhead]

Red is Good on the offence map which I've always had strongly mixed feelings on (Just make Blue Good and Red Bad for all please), but my favorite part of that offense map is the little tiny blip directly to the side of the net. That right there is Michkov. And is likely to continue to be. That's a place where he does work, and considering everyone knows he is going to be there trying to overpower the goalie...he still does it. He is inevitable. Already.

Anyway, the way most offensive generation is off towards the sides is a continuation of what Tortorella had the team doing last season. North/South passing setting up those chances. Which in turn means the goalie is only shuffling a bit to change angles from basically corner to circles. Very little east-west to set up slot shots or cross-ice chances. In consequence, not a lot of ES offensive production. The PP being surprisingly good is covering a lot of sins at the moment.

The past pattern was that the team started with more east-west passing at this stage and it would be allowed to continue until approximately January, when Tortorella would decree it is time to buckle down for the playoffs and then the team's focus would become almost exclusively north-south focused with east-west passing being limited to pretty much within the same half of the ice.

I do not like that mode, and I do not like this being the starting mode.

Also, that heavy shot generation mass on the right side probably has something to do with the team's glut of right wingers, I bet. It's amusing to me when traits like that show up in the data.

East West passing is dangerous, especially at the top of the O-zone where a bad pass can result in an odd man rush the other way.

So it depends on the player, I don't want TK or Tippett doing it too often b/c both are mistake prone. Michkov, as he gains experience, no problem. Same with Foerster and Brink.

Comes down to risk/reward, some players have a good feel when to take chances, not just E/W passes but D-men pinching (Drysdale is still learning when). Others can't be trusted.

I think Torts won't shackle Michkov b/c he trusts his instincts.
Other young forwards have a tendency to force the issue and don't recognize when the passing lane is an illusion. Some of that is experience, some is anticipation and vision.

It's a tough balance, you want players to be aggressive without being stupid.

Brink's a good example, right now he forces too many passes, but given his history, I think it's more adjusting to the NHL windows and learning when he can get away with those passes.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

Revealed preference. If Buium was really considered top 5, someone would have jumped on him.

I think it comes down to variance of perceptions, that is, he might have had a smaller variance of expectations while other players had larger variance. So on average, would have ranked above players who a minority of GMs saw having higher ceilings.

Since it only takes one GM, if a GM sees someone having a higher upside they may take that player first.
Buium was old (Dec 7 B-day) for his draft class, so the perception may have been that he was closer to his ceiling, even though his mean was higher, than other top prospects.
NJ for example, might have seen Silayev with a higher upside (despite higher risk b/c of limited track record, though was in KHL at 17).

Could be "winner's curse" or just a lower level of risk aversion (more willing to gamble on ceiling).

The interesting choice was Catton at #8, mediocre D-1, great D-0 season, Jan B-day, hadn't filled out at 5'11 172. Was this a "mean" pick or an upside pick?

I object to the idea that NHL orgs are this comfortable with risk. Or at least that they parse it this well.

As we’ve discussed before, these falls often happen because a player may be 2nd on a string of boards in a row. Sometimes there’s nothing to read into them. They can just be a function of the sequencing of the standings. It’s the same mechanic you’ve described here, but for a reason that makes it ring more true to me.

 

[Beef Invictus]

East West passing is dangerous, especially at the top of the O-zone where a bad pass can result in an odd man rush the other way.

So it depends on the player, I don't want TK or Tippett doing it too often b/c both are mistake prone. Michkov, as he gains experience, no problem. Same with Foerster and Brink.

Comes down to risk/reward, some players have a good feel when to take chances, not just E/W passes but D-men pinching (Drysdale is still learning when). Others can't be trusted.

I think Torts won't shackle Michkov b/c he trusts his instincts.
Other young forwards have a tendency to force the issue and don't recognize when the passing lane is an illusion. Some of that is experience, some is anticipation and vision.

It's a tough balance, you want players to be aggressive without being stupid.

Brink's a good example, right now he forces too many passes, but given his history, I think it's more adjusting to the NHL windows and learning when he can get away with those passes.

It's not a tough balance, a mandate against it like Tortorella runs is ridiculous and puts a hard ceiling on offensive generation. It makes goalies' lives as easy as possible. The team has always been at its best under him before he gets in front of the press and declares it's time to focus on playing the right way. And does away with it.