2024-25 Roster…too soon?

[ChiHawks10]

"said he looks like he'll be a 40-50 point player most his career."

"Necas is a 5m/season player"



I dont know what your questions were. You can ask again.

Saying I think a guy is going to be a 40-50 point player most his career is not the same as saying "he's a 40 point player."

I stand by the second statement. I think he's probably worth 5-6m, in his current form. He's gonna give you 45-55 points most seasons, is bad defensively, and is not even remotely physical for a guy his size. I'm sure he'll have another season or two in the 55-65 point range, also. I'd be fine giving him 7m for 55 points if he were actually worth a shit defensively, and actually used his big body to be physically imposing.

I'll ask again.

What is more likely? That he's a 25/25 guy for the entirety of his career, based upon what he has done to this point? Or that he magically ends up a 30+ and 30-40+ type of player? Somehow you see him being a 70 point capable player on a team FAR worse than the one he was on? A team who is offensively inept, outside of one or two guys?

Listen, if the Hawks can get him for a decent trade as far as value goes, and sign him to like a 5x6m contract, I'd be fine with that. I think he can serve a purpose on the Hawks in a middle 6 role, as a solid offensive depth option, who you can play on PP2. I just don't see paying him like he's some guaranteed 1st line player, when he is soft for his size, is shit defensively, and is probably going to provide you around 45-55 points most seasons.

Like I said before. Go look at the guys in the NHL who make 7.5-8.5m. Then ask yourself if you'd be happy paying Necas that money for what he is.

 

[cassac]

Im fine with Tuevo too. What is his contract? Can we beat out 31 other teams? Is he willing to come back to a team that traded him. Hes going to be 30 so we will get him from 30-35? IMO a worse player than Necas from 25-32.

People are seriously underestimating how good of a player Necas is. Hes immediately the second/third best player on the team at 25 years old. I dont understand why people say overpay. Thats just what he costs. We are so far from cap problems it’s insane. We would be lucky to be in cap problems again. That means Korchinski Nazar ++++ all work out.

Necas would not be the second or third best player on the team immediately. At the very best, he is fourth (Bedard, Jones, Vlasic are all better). If Nazar makes the NHL at the start of the year, pushes Necas to fifth. KK might be ahead of him at the start of the year as well.

 

[BHawk21]

Owen Tippett just got 6.2 for 8 years. Hes 25 years old. He was drafted 10th overall.

18 points in 45 games
21 points in 63 games
49 points in 77 games
53 points in 78 games

.52 ppg Averaging 43 points per season. If we do it the dumb full career way the ChiHawk10 does it.

 

[TLEH]

I think the thing with Necas is that he wants to play a position that his hockey mind isn't letting him play. He wants money that he isn't worth. If he could play C and didn't want too much money, Carolina would just pay him.

So you're now paying a winger who isn't an elite scorer a lot of money, a lot of term, and you're having to trade for him. Its not a move I want to make.

 

[ChiHawks10]

Owen Tippett just got 6.2 for 8 years. Hes 25 years old. He was drafted 10th overall.

18 points in 45 games
21 points in 63 games
49 points in 77 games
53 points in 78 games

.52 ppg Averaging 43 points per season. If we do it the dumb full career way the ChiHawk10 does it.

The dumb way?

There's a reason that when talking about "averages" the lowest and highest are usually dropped. Outliers are just that. Outliers. As of now, his ONE 70 point season is an outlier. It's not his norm, based upon the rest of the data we have for his career so far. With that said, here are the numbers if we were to drop his two outliers(his rookie season and his 70 point season).

14-27-41 53GP
14-26-40 78GP
24-29-53 77GP

52-82-134 208GP

.64PPG
Averages 44.6 points per season.
If you take the .64ppg, and project it out to 82gp per season, he comes in at like 52.5 points per season.

Now, if you take his .67ppg if we include his two outlier seasons, and project it out to 82gp per season, he comes in around 55 points per season.

THAT is the production you pay for. Not one outlier season out of 5. That production doesn't warrant giving up a 1st, 2nd, and paying the guy 7.5m+ for 7 years.

And that's strictly looking at his offense. He's inept defensively. He's not a physical presence, despite being 6'2 and 190+lbs.

Do you think that a guy who is projected to give you 55 points per season(on the high end of his current career performance), with bad defense, and no physicality for a big body, is worth 7.5m+ per season, as well as giving up a 1st and 2nd for him?

 

[BHawk21]

"What is more likely? That he's a 25/25 guy for the entirety of his career, based upon what he has done to this point? Or that he magically ends up a 30+ and 30-40+ type of player? Somehow you see him being a 70 point capable player on a team FAR worse than the one he was on? A team who is offensively inept, outside of one or two guys?"

I think with more minutes and more power play time playing alongside Bedard instead of Staal or Kotkaniemi in a new system hes much closer to the 71 point guy he was 1 year ago.

 

[BHawk21]

The dumb way?

There's a reason that when talking about "averages" the lowest and highest are usually dropped. Outliers are just that. Outliers. As of now, his ONE 70 point season is an outlier. It's not his norm, based upon the rest of the data we have for his career so far. With that said, here are the numbers if we were to drop his two outliers(his rookie season and his 70 point season).

14-27-41 53GP
14-26-40 78GP
24-29-53 77GP

52-82-134 208GP

.64PPG
Averages 44.6 points per season.

THAT is the production you pay for. Not one outlier season out of 5. That production doesn't warrant giving up a 1st, 2nd, and paying the guy 7.5m+ for 7 years.

And that's strictly looking at his offense. He's inept defensively. He's not a physical presence, despite being 6'2 and 190+lbs.

So no nuance. No age factor. No time on ice factors. His best season 1 year ago gets thrown out with his rookie season 5 years ago. . If thats what makes you feel right. Sure.

You pay for the production that you project he will give you going forward.

Necas would not be the second or third best player on the team immediately. At the very best, he is fourth (Bedard, Jones, Vlasic are all better). If Nazar makes the NHL at the start of the year, pushes Necas to fifth. KK might be ahead of him at the start of the year as well.

 

[ChiHawks10]

So no nuance. No age factor. No time on ice factors. His best season 1 year ago gets thrown out with his rookie season 5 years ago. . If thats what makes you feel right. Sure.

You pay for the production that you project he will give you going forward.

Yes, and the numbers guys who are calculating what his "projected" offensive output is, will project him as a 55 point player. The people doing this stuff aren't just magically throwing out numbers that they think he will put up. They're using his averages, his ppg, etc. And more likely than not, like any good numbers guy will do, they will throw out his current outliers. His career high, and his career low. That's how this works. Statisticians regularly throw out the outliers, because they're just that. Outliers. They skew the numbers. Tell me you don't understand statistics without telling me you don't understand statistics.

Do you think that a guy who is projected to give you 55 points per season(on the high end of his current career performance), with bad defense, and no physicality for a big body, is worth 7.5m+ per season, as well as giving up a 1st and 2nd for him?

 

[BHawk21]

I think the thing with Necas is that he wants to play a position that his hockey mind isn't letting him play. He wants money that he isn't worth. If he could play C and didn't want too much money, Carolina would just pay him.

So you're now paying a winger who isn't an elite scorer a lot of money, a lot of term, and you're having to trade for him. Its not a move I want to make.

Your paying a player that can get you 70 points his market value in his prime years.

Yes, and the numbers guys who are calculating what his "projected" offensive output is, will project him as a 55 point player. The people doing this stuff aren't just magically throwing out numbers that they think he will put up. They're using his averages, his ppg, etc.

Do you think that a guy who is projected to give you 55 points per season(on the high end of his current career performance), with bad defense, and no physicality for a big body, is worth 7.5m+ per season, as well as giving up a 1st and 2nd for him?

I cant keep up with your edits. So think it fully through before you post please.

 

[ChiHawks10]

Your paying a player that can get you 70 points his market value in his prime years.


I cant keep up with your edits. So think it fully through before you post please.

Or just go back and re-read it. It takes like 15 seconds.

 

[TLEH]

Youre***** paying a player that can get you 70 points his market value in his prime years.

I'm not going to call a player that hit 70 once, a 70 point player. Maybe he can get us 70, maybe he can't. He's still a winger that sucks at C that wants to play C and wants to get paid. Oh btw we have to give up a 1st and some prospects to just get the right to pay him 7+. No. Thank. You.

 

[Mrfenn92]

Or just go back and re-read it. It takes like 15 seconds.

You kbs posts lol

 

[BHawk21]

Or just go back and re-read it. It takes like 15 seconds.

Im responding and your adding more bullshit and then acting like I'm not answering questions.

 

[ChiHawks10]

You kbs posts lol

I do edit a lot, because I add to things once I re-read what I've posted, and I clarify things I've said, or provide more evidence/info to support my points. It doesn't take long to re-read the edits.

Im responding and your adding more bullshit and then acting like I'm not answering questions.

The question was in there from the get-go. As were the questions yesterday.

 

[BHawk21]

I'm not going to call a player that hit 70 once, a 70 point player. Maybe he can get us 70, maybe he can't. He's still a winger that sucks at C that wants to play C and wants to get paid. Oh btw we have to give up a 1st and some prospects to just get the right to pay him 7+. No. Thank. You.

Yes, and then when you look at it the other way. Hes a 25 year old player who can put up 60-70 points on your team. You can lock him in at market value for his prime to give your most important asset someone to grow with and take the burden off of him and the rest of the rookies.

We can pay a late first thats a question mark to be an NHL player for a sure fire top 6 wing now who will be depth scoring for when you are looking to compete.

If you are trying to just build through the draft and not capitalize on assets Davidson is going to be fired before his 2025 late 1st gets to Rockford.

 

[Hawkaholic]

Hes playing behind Svechnikov and Jarvis. They are both very good. Hes also had more goals and points then anyone but Aho the last two years. I mean you can go ask Carolina fans. Hes a good player that they would prefer to keep but he wants out for more of an opportunity. He played on the PP2 behind Guentzel Aho Svech Jarvis and Skjei

9 points in 11 games in the playoffs.

I understand you dont think hes good. I think hes good.

Svechnikov is good but not elite, not great. Not even a point per game player. And he missed the first 20 games of the season, and wasn't even himself until half way through the year, and Necas STILL didn't get top line or top PP time. Guentzel wasnt even on the team until Game ~60 and only played 17 games.

I think Necas is good, but not worth the draft picks to acquire him, and the contract he'll want. If he was a UFA, maybe.

 

[ChiHawks10]

Yes, and then when you look at it the other way. Hes a 25 year old player who can put up 60-70 points on your team. You can lock him in at market value for his prime to give your most important asset someone to grow with and take the burden off of him and the rest of the rookies.

We can pay a late first thats a question mark to be an NHL player for a sure fire top 6 wing now who will be depth scoring for when you are looking to compete.

If you are trying to just build through the draft and not capitalize on assets Davidson is going to be fired before his 2025 late 1st gets to Rockford.

You don't understand how statistics work. You don't just throw out a random number you think he can achieve regularly because he did it once.

 

[Hawkaholic]

Owen Tippett just got 6.2 for 8 years. Hes 25 years old. He was drafted 10th overall.

18 points in 45 games
21 points in 63 games
49 points in 77 games
53 points in 78 games

.52 ppg Averaging 43 points per season. If we do it the dumb full career way the ChiHawk10 does it.

Has anyone said Tippet is on a good contract? lol

 

[BHawk21]

You don't understand how statistics work. You don't just throw out a random number you think he can achieve regularly because he did it once.

View attachment 884790

Your weighing his rookie year the same as his 5th year in the league. Don't pretend you have a clue what you are talking about.

Has anyone said Tippet is on a good contract? lol

Market value. This is what good players cost.

 

[Hawkaholic]

I think with more minutes and more power play time playing alongside Bedard instead of Staal or Kotkaniemi in a new system hes much closer to the 71 point guy he was 1 year ago.

I dont think its a good idea to have 2 guys who suck at defense on the same line.

Market value. This is what good players cost.

What market? He never hit the market.

 

[BHawk21]

Yes, now lets get into a semantics argument about saying Owen Tippet signed at his market value.

 

[ChiHawks10]

Your weighing his rookie year the same as his 5th year in the league. Don't pretend you have a clue what you are talking about.


Market value. This is what good players cost.

That's how statistics work, bud. Outliers are thrown out. Those outliers are always the high and the low. Funny that you tell me not to pretend like I have a clue what I'm talking about, but you don't even know the correct form of you're and your to use at any given moment. That's f***ing rich.

Done with this now. Back to ignore you go.

 

[Hawkaholic]

Yes, now lets get into a semantics argument about saying Owen Tippet signed at his market value.

Semantics? Just facts. Philly signed him to a contract before he was even able to talk to other teams as a RFA. I guarantee they could have got him signed for much less, as teams weren't going to offer sheet him to a big number and give up big draft picks to get him. They took a gamble that he will get better and the contract will look good in 3 or 4 years.

 

[ClydeLee]

The Necas or not debate is too hinged on, there being this alternative of signing a UFA

What marquee UFA is going to sign a deal to this team at this phase?

If you want real top 6 help, the only option is a trade target in my view.

 

[BHawk21]

That's how statistics work, bud. Outliers are thrown out. Those outliers are always the high and the low. Funny that you tell me not to pretend like I have a clue what I'm talking about, but you don't even know the correct form of you're and your to use at any given moment. That's f***ing rich.

You don't understand then. Your weighting someone's rookie year 5 years ago the same as the previous 2 seasons while trying to project over the next 6-8.

You dont understand. Your not looking for the median. Thats now how contracts are done.