Speculation: 2024-25 - Free Agency/Trade Thread

[JAHV]

I don't

Z was playing #1 center first for the worst team in the league who just sold everything off. Do you think him being slightly better at defense and scoring 40 points would have been an improvement? I honestly don't even get what your point is here

Of course that wasn't the intent. Zegras put up back to back 60+ point seasons, but he was giving much of that back defensively. Certainly that second season was atrocious. The points were shiny, but they distracted from the glaring issue, which was that teams were just as likely to score when he was on the ice as he was (if not more so).

Hence the idea that the next coach had to instill some sort of defensive skill or structure that would help make him a more complete and more valuable player. The idea, I'm sure, was that the offense would still develop further but that sacrificing a little of it to improve on defense would be worthwhile. To this point, it hasn't been, although the sample size is still small due to his injury issues.

No one thought, "We're going to make Zegras into a mediocre third line winger!" They were trying to get his defense to a level where he could be relied on to play in more situations and thus would be more valuable.

 

[ohcomeonref]

I don't

Of course that wasn't the intent. Zegras put up back to back 60+ point seasons, but he was giving much of that back defensively. Certainly that second season was atrocious. The points were shiny, but they distracted from the glaring issue, which was that teams were just as likely to score when he was on the ice as he was (if not more so).

Hence the idea that the next coach had to instill some sort of defensive skill or structure that would help make him a more complete and more valuable player. The idea, I'm sure, was that the offense would still develop further but that sacrificing a little of it to improve on defense would be worthwhile. To this point, it hasn't been, although the sample size is still small due to his injury issues.

No one thought, "We're going to make Zegras into a mediocre third line winger!" They were trying to get his defense to a level where he could be relied on to play in more situations and thus would be more valuable.

I'm fine with trying to make him better. I just think, based off of Cro's coaching style, that they were too ham-fisted with their approach. Hopefully I'm absolutely completely wrong and Z figures it out this year and brings decent defense with 60+ points. I have no agenda against Z, or Cro, or Verbeek, I just want the Ducks to be the best team possible as fast as possible.

 

[ZegrassyKnoll]

I'm fine with trying to make him better. I just think, based off of Cro's coaching style, that they were too ham-fisted with their approach. Hopefully I'm absolutely completely wrong and Z figures it out this year and brings decent defense with 60+ points. I have no agenda against Z, or Cro, or Verbeek, I just want the Ducks to be the best team possible as fast as possible.

Based off his interviews, I actually think Cronin would agree with you that he was too ham-fisted last year.

I find it hard to believe that somebody could recognize that and make 0 changes, so we’ll have to see what happens.

 

[ohcomeonref]

Based off his interviews, I actually think Cronin would agree with you that he was too ham-fisted last year.

I find it hard to believe that somebody could recognize that and make 0 changes, so we’ll have to see what happens.

I've been encouraged by almost everything Cro has said frankly, if he is able to put into practice what he's talked about we'll be alright.

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

My point is that trying to improve the defensive effort of a key forward shouldn’t be seen as a negative.

Idk that anyone sees it as a negative... he def needed to make improvements in his game.

Im more worried about his confidence now, the style that they are trying to get him to play (dump and chase, which he isnt and wont ever be that type of player)

I think defensively hes taken huge strides in the right direction, but i do wonder whats the bench marks in term of offense lost that is acceptable.

If hes now a 40 point winger that has a solid 2 way game... does he even really fit here anymore? If were going that route why not try to make him into a 3c.

 

[ohcomeonref]

Idk that anyone sees it as a negative... he def needed to make improvements in his game.

Im more worried about his confidence now, the style that they are trying to get him to play (dump and chase, which he isnt and wont ever be that type of player)

I think defensively hes taken huge strides in the right direction, but i do wonder whats the bench marks in term of offense lost that is acceptable.

If hes now a 40 point winger that has a solid 2 way game... does he even really fit here anymore? If were going that route why not try to make him into a 3c.

I don't remember who said it but someone said something like: "Z will never be successful in a dump-and-chase system" and I think that's bang on.

 

[ZegrassyKnoll]

I've been encouraged by almost everything Cro has said frankly, if he is able to put into practice what he's talked about we'll be alright.

I think it actually sums up how I feel about Cronin. I don't fault a first time coach for having a bad year.

But if he can recognize that it was bad, point out specific things that he did that were bad, and not make any significant changes - that would be a bad coach.

 

[Gliff]

Drysdale is getting tore apart in the Flyers board. Poor guy.

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

I don't remember who said it but someone said something like: "Z will never be successful in a dump-and-chase system" and I think that's bang on.

I want to say it was @Static and they were dead on

I’m more worried about mctavish defensively…. As I thought his floor was higher…. But he’s pretty bad defensively

 

[SmokeyDuck]

Drysdale is getting tore apart in the Flyers board. Poor guy.

Why? Didn't he have a couple assists the other night?

 

[All Mighty]

Why? Didn't he have a couple assists the other night?

2 secondary PP assists. Still no points at even strength.

 

[MMC]

Why? Didn't he have a couple assists the other night?

Completely lost defensively by the sounds of it and the offense isn't coming at a consistent enough rate to make up for it

 

[Hockey Duckie]

Why? Didn't he have a couple assists the other night?

He did have a couple of PP assists and wasn't a negative rating until the team gave up two EN's. That kinda points out the rest of the team was bad. I think Drysdale is slowly improving.

 

[SmokeyDuck]

We need to pick up a faceoff ace. I think it would help us a fair bit.

 

[DavidBL]

We need to pick up a faceoff ace. I think it would help us a fair bit.

An ace wouldn't help much if he's only playing 4th line minutes. I think it's more important for the kids to just figure it out.

 

[Smirnov2Chistov]

An ace wouldn't help much if he's only playing 4th line minutes. I think it's more important for the kids to just figure it out.

But the kids need some sort of veteran guidance.

What's really worrying is that Leo seems inept at taking faceoffs.

 

[The Duck Knight]

But the kids need some sort of veteran guidance.

What's really worrying is that Leo seems inept at taking faceoffs.

Leo isn't going to get better at faceoffs in practice where everything is controlled. You don't think Getzlaf and others have already given him plenty of tips in the past 18 months? The only way he's going to get better is game experience and learning the tendencies off his counterparts. And then in time hopefully he'll be strong enough to just start overpowering people like Getzlaf/Thornton.

 

[Smirnov2Chistov]

And then in time hopefully he'll be strong enough to just start overpowering people like Getzlaf/Thornton.

That’s quite the reach.

He’s not physical or even tenacious enough to be making a sort of comparison to those two

 

[CrazyDuck4u]

If Z can defend in own end as well and put up 50 points. Season. Than he would be a great player

 

[The Duck Knight]

That’s quite the reach.

He’s not physical or even tenacious enough to be making a sort of comparison to those two

We're talking about faceoffs not hitting and fighting.

 

[Hockey Duckie]

Leo isn't going to get better at faceoffs in practice where everything is controlled. You don't think Getzlaf and others have already given him plenty of tips in the past 18 months? The only way he's going to get better is game experience and learning the tendencies off his counterparts. And then in time hopefully he'll be strong enough to just start overpowering people like Getzlaf/Thornton.

Mac went from 42.3% to 51.7% between 2022-23 and 2023-24. A lot of off-season work on his part to improve that much. Now, what happened between 2023-24 and this season is still a mystery to me, going from 51.7% to 47.4%. At least he has produced 50% or better in five out of the 10 games so far. Maybe his sea legs are starting to kick in.

Z, otoh, is still struggling at the faceoff dot and this is his fifth season in the league.

Leo may need to continue to bulk up his upper body next summer to help improve winning pucks as well as develop a faster twitch or use veteran ways to tie up the opposing stick and kick it back to a teammate.

Perfect practice makes perfect (see Mac). Letting your team FO% get bludgeoned b/c you're hoping your centerman can improve during the season doesn't seem logical. Let Fabbri be the initial FO man and the Carlsson be the 2nd. Carlsson will still get chances that way in live-game experience and the 2nd FO guy when the initial one gets kicked out by the ref, but no need gifting him 13+ opportunities just so he can be 25% on the dot.

 

[Kevin Forbes]

We need to pick up a faceoff ace. I think it would help us a fair bit.

This comment interested me just because there's not as many "faceoff aces" out there.
It's not like there's a Yanic Perreault floating around, and (as some other people mentioned), this theoretical addition would likely slot in as a bottom six contributor if Anaheim could find one.

So let's look at who's out there.
I used the following filters on NHL.com and I'm cherry-picking a little bit, but looking at FO% for players who have over 800 face-offs since the start of last season (so maxing out around 90-ish games) and are playing less than 17 minutes/night.
For reference, McTavish comes up at 18th on that list with 51.1% success rate over 74 games. So let's look at who's better than him.

So ahead of him when it comes to overall FO% (800 faceoffs and less than 17min/night)

1. Nico Sturm, 29yo, San Jose - $2million, UFA after this season - 60.6%
2. Jordan Staal, 36yo, Carolina - $2.9million until summer of 2027, NMC - 57.5%
3. Kevin Hayes, 32yo, Pittsburgh - $3.5million until summer of 2026, M-NTC - 57.2%
4. Luke Glendening, 35yo, Tampa Bay - $800k, UFA after this season - 56.1%
5. Jean-Gabriel Pageau, 31yo, NY Islanders - $5million until summer of 2026, M-NTC - 55.9%
6. Erik Haula, 33yo, New Jersey - $3million until summer of 2026, NTC - 55.3%
7. Anton Lundell, 23yo, Florida - $5million until summer 2030 - 54.4%
8. Sam Carrick, 32yo, NY Rangers - $1million until summer 2027 - 53.8%
9. Kevin Stenlund, 28yo, Utah - $2million until summer 2026 - 53.4%
10. Colton Sissons, 30yo, Nashville - $2.8million until summer 2026 - 53.2%
11. Ryan Johansen, 32yo, UFA - 53.1%
12. Teddy Bluegar, 30yo, Vancouver - $1.8million until summer 2026 - 53.1%
13. Adam Henrique, 34yo, Edmonton - $3million until summer 2026 - 52.9%
14. Andrew Copp, 30yo, Detroit - $5.6million until summer 2027, M-NTC - 52.9%
15. Lars Eller, 35yo, Pittsburgh - $2.45 million, UFA after this season - 52.9%
16. Jake Evans, 28yo, Montreal - $1.7 million, UFA after this season - 51.7%
17. David Kampf, 29yo, Toronto - $2.4 million until summer 2026 - 51.2%

Alrighty, so let's eliminate Johansen right off the bat because of the litigation between him and Philly. He probably loses that case and that money if he starts playing hockey again.
We'll also rule out Lundell, as he'll be impossible to pry out of Florida, a 23yo signed until 2030.
I'm also going to rule out Staal, Glendening, Haula, Carrick, Bluegar, Henrique and Kampf due to the situations (relatively affordable priced players on teams that should be in the playoff picture come the spring), unless something sours there with the relationship or the team, those guys aren't hitting the trade market.

So now we're down from 17 guys to 8: Sturm, Hayes, Pageau, Stenlund, Sissons, Copp, Eller and Evans.
Hayes, Pageau and Copp all have big money contracts that Anaheim would likely ask for some retention, especially because they extend into future years. Plus we got those Modified-NTCs to deal with and so that might be tricky going. If Pittsburgh, the Islanders or the Predators continue to underperform, you could talk yourself into these guys maybe becoming available. Eller probably fits in this bucket too, but as a pending UFA he's probably easier to move
Sissons is a bit more affordable, but still has term and is also dependent on Nashville continuing to struggle.
Sturm, Stenlund and Evans are all a bit younger and also more affordable. Sturm and Evans in particular has 'deadline deal acquisition' written all over him: pending UFA on non-competitive team.
Evans was brought up today by Spector's Hockey, with Montreal probably trying to assess if they can keep him for a reasonable price or if they need to deal him: NHL Rumor Mill – November 1, 2024 | Spectors Hockey

So if I'm Anaheim and I wanted to improve, I'm guessing Sturm, Stenlund and Evans are high on the list (but I'll be competing with more competitive teams as well). I'd be keeping an eye on guys like Sissons and Eller as well.

Right now on Anaheim, McTavish isn't succeeding as much (51.7 last year, 47.4 this year), but Lundestrom has improved (49.0 this year compared to 44.0 last year). Strome (45.9 last year, 45.4 this year) has stayed pretty consistent, but the real story is Carlsson (33.6% last year, 25.6% this year) which is really tough if he's playing pivot on the top line.

 

[DavidBL]

This comment interested me just because there's not as many "faceoff aces" out there.
It's not like there's a Yanic Perreault floating around, and (as some other people mentioned), this theoretical addition would likely slot in as a bottom six contributor if Anaheim could find one.

So let's look at who's out there.
I used the following filters on NHL.com and I'm cherry-picking a little bit, but looking at FO% for players who have over 800 face-offs since the start of last season (so maxing out around 90-ish games) and are playing less than 17 minutes/night.
For reference, McTavish comes up at 18th on that list with 51.1% success rate over 74 games. So let's look at who's better than him.

So ahead of him when it comes to overall FO% (800 faceoffs and less than 17min/night)

1. Nico Sturm, 29yo, San Jose - $2million, UFA after this season - 60.6%
2. Jordan Staal, 36yo, Carolina - $2.9million until summer of 2027, NMC - 57.5%
3. Kevin Hayes, 32yo, Pittsburgh - $3.5million until summer of 2026, M-NTC - 57.2%
4. Luke Glendening, 35yo, Tampa Bay - $800k, UFA after this season - 56.1%
5. Jean-Gabriel Pageau, 31yo, NY Islanders - $5million until summer of 2026, M-NTC - 55.9%
6. Erik Haula, 33yo, New Jersey - $3million until summer of 2026, NTC - 55.3%
7. Anton Lundell, 23yo, Florida - $5million until summer 2030 - 54.4%
8. Sam Carrick, 32yo, NY Rangers - $1million until summer 2027 - 53.8%
9. Kevin Stenlund, 28yo, Utah - $2million until summer 2026 - 53.4%
10. Colton Sissons, 30yo, Nashville - $2.8million until summer 2026 - 53.2%
11. Ryan Johansen, 32yo, UFA - 53.1%
12. Teddy Bluegar, 30yo, Vancouver - $1.8million until summer 2026 - 53.1%
13. Adam Henrique, 34yo, Edmonton - $3million until summer 2026 - 52.9%
14. Andrew Copp, 30yo, Detroit - $5.6million until summer 2027, M-NTC - 52.9%
15. Lars Eller, 35yo, Pittsburgh - $2.45 million, UFA after this season - 52.9%
16. Jake Evans, 28yo, Montreal - $1.7 million, UFA after this season - 51.7%
17. David Kampf, 29yo, Toronto - $2.4 million until summer 2026 - 51.2%

Alrighty, so let's eliminate Johansen right off the bat because of the litigation between him and Philly. He probably loses that case and that money if he starts playing hockey again.
We'll also rule out Lundell, as he'll be impossible to pry out of Florida, a 23yo signed until 2030.
I'm also going to rule out Staal, Glendening, Haula, Carrick, Bluegar, Henrique and Kampf due to the situations (relatively affordable priced players on teams that should be in the playoff picture come the spring), unless something sours there with the relationship or the team, those guys aren't hitting the trade market.

So now we're down from 17 guys to 8: Sturm, Hayes, Pageau, Stenlund, Sissons, Copp, Eller and Evans.
Hayes, Pageau and Copp all have big money contracts that Anaheim would likely ask for some retention, especially because they extend into future years. Plus we got those Modified-NTCs to deal with and so that might be tricky going. If Pittsburgh, the Islanders or the Predators continue to underperform, you could talk yourself into these guys maybe becoming available. Eller probably fits in this bucket too, but as a pending UFA he's probably easier to move
Sissons is a bit more affordable, but still has term and is also dependent on Nashville continuing to struggle.
Sturm, Stenlund and Evans are all a bit younger and also more affordable. Sturm and Evans in particular has 'deadline deal acquisition' written all over him: pending UFA on non-competitive team.
Evans was brought up today by Spector's Hockey, with Montreal probably trying to assess if they can keep him for a reasonable price or if they need to deal him: NHL Rumor Mill – November 1, 2024 | Spectors Hockey

So if I'm Anaheim and I wanted to improve, I'm guessing Sturm, Stenlund and Evans are high on the list (but I'll be competing with more competitive teams as well). I'd be keeping an eye on guys like Sissons and Eller as well.

Right now on Anaheim, McTavish isn't succeeding as much (51.7 last year, 47.4 this year), but Lundestrom has improved (49.0 this year compared to 44.0 last year). Strome (45.9 last year, 45.4 this year) has stayed pretty consistent, but the real story is Carlsson (33.6% last year, 25.6% this year) which is really tough if he's playing pivot on the top line.

I had wanted any of Stenlund Eller or Pageau. Stenlund just signed so he's likely out and the other two are currently playing more of a 3rd line roll and the reality is we'd want them in more of a 4th line roll.

 

[KaseMeOutside]

Sure, but if Zegras can’t be efficient because they asked him to play a little defense, then he’s not worth the large contract in the first place. I think Zegras is in his own head more than anything anyways, when things start going right for him, he’ll break out again. With injuries and all that he hasn’t been able to pick up where he left off 2 years ago.

I understand the need to be responsible defensively but it's hard to find gifted offensive players and you can't coach that out of them either

 

[Sean Garrity]

Mac also seemingly got thrown out of the face off dot in 50% of opportunities…