Prospect Info: 2023 WJC Thread

Devils731

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I only got to see the first of the Slovakian game but I thought Nemec showed his strengths and also why he has a wide range of outcomes.

On the PP he places passes right where the receiving player wants them, most of the time.

At ES, he is really roaming based on how the play is developing. He reads the plays, decides what the opponent will do or go, and reacts before the opponent initiates the play. That puts him ahead of the play when he’s right but can leave him vulnerable when wrong. I imagine as he gets more experienced he will understand when to act on his suspicions and when to wait; but nobody can tell how that will grow.
 

StevenToddIves

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Seems like an awfully optimistic take on Hughes' game.

After a season and a half of college hockey and several international appearances both at the junior and men's level he should be far more positionally sound than he showed last night.

Whether it was over-confidence playing U20 against an inferior opponent or merely recklessness his consistent lack of attention to detail and wandering were disconcerting; especially for a player who is the team captain.
As a longtime NHL draft/prospect writer, I can tell you with full sincerity that the player who Luke Hughes compares to the closest in terms of the accolades/criticisms he receives is, without a doubt, Cale Makar.

Now by no means am I saying Luke Hughes will be the next Cale Makar. But I will say that if any defense prospect from the last decade has the tools necessary to approach Makar's sublime greatness, it's either Rasmus Dahlin or Luke Hughes.

Like Makar, Hughes was a raw prospect when he was drafted -- as we know he barely missed the cut-off for the 2022 draft. Like Makar, Hughes was praised for his otherworldly skating and elite offensive tool-kit, but maligned for his 200-foot play. I mean, this is the most basic way to describe it, but you can go back and look at Makar scouting reports from his draft-eligible year and his freshman season at UMass and insert Luke Hughes' name in there and it will sound eerily similar.

The fact is, all prospects take different amounts of time to develop, and because of his birthdate we can almost look at Luke as a 2022 draftee. I'm going to bring up Rasmus Dahlin again, because his game was so uneven over the first three years of his career, but last year he emerged as an impact player and this year he's a legit Norris candidate. Ultimately, my point is that there will be growing pains with a player like Dahlin or Hughes -- who are similar in talent level and habit at a similar age. But if -- IF -- Hughes develops even close to his ceiling? Well, we're talking about a big kid who is one of the best skaters in the hockey world and absolutely oozes with hockey skill. It cannot be understated that Luke Hughes -- though not a guarantee just yet -- possesses a nearly immeasurable talent ceiling.

At the 2021 draft, I did not strongly endorse Luke Hughes for the Devils pick, though I predicted it and was happy with it when it was made. But what I did write -- at length -- was that Luke Hughes clearly had the highest upside of any player available in the entire 2021 draft class. The same was said about Cale Makar in 2017. Will Luke hit this upside? Well, he's got a long way to go, and there will be bumps in the road for sure. But, as of yet, his progression has gone quite well and I would be very reticent to bet against him.


What was impressive about this play by Hauser was not the goal, but his lead pass to set up the break which led to the goal. I had no idea Hauser had the type of vision or precision he has displayed in -- thus far -- a dominant combination with 2022 Vegas draft steal Matyas Sapovaliv.
 

nugg

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It's really sad to me how undervalued Svozil was in the 2021 draft. I still think the worst pick of the Fitzgerald era was Samu Salminen at #68 in 2021, allowing division rival Columbus to get Svozil one pick later.

Stanislav Svozil was absolutely the best player in tonight's huge Czech upset over Team Canada at the WJC. The biggest reason for the upset was pretty clearly the superiority of the Czech blueline, I felt the Canadian D was shaky across the board and could not match the talent of of the Czech top 3: Svozil, Jiricek and Hamara. Kevin Korchinski was mentally overmatched, Nolan Allen and Tyson Hinds were overmatched in skill, Olen Zellweger was physically overmatched. I thought Brandt Clarke and Ethan Del Mastro played alright, though neither was a difference maker, ultimately.

Svozil was simply spectacular -- unbeatable on every inch of ice, aside from on the brilliant Conor Bedard goal (which was not Svozil's fault, btw).
Sadly Fitzy passed him up not once, but twice! Instead grabbing Stillman, then Salminen. One of those two might be a decent AHLer. Long shot for Chase to make it in the NHL as a bottom sixer (I still have hope). Aside from Luke, who fell into his hands, it (2021) was a pretty shit draft for Tom. Vilen and Malek might be something down the road, but otherwise, bleh.

Edit: Good to see Vilen might help salvage this draft a bit. Good showing in this tourney I see.
 
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nugg

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Quick Notes on the WJC:

Switzerland 3, Finland 2
Outstanding game, and a watermark victory for the Swiss. I have few accolades for the Finns and several criticisms. Brad Lambert was embarrassingly bad, and Joakim Kemell not much better. I felt the best Finn may have been Devils prospect Topias Vilen, whose upward arc as a prospect has been dizzying to behold. This kid can be a top 4 NHL defenseman, a real two-way rock. Heady player. But the true star of the game was Swiss D Lian Bichsel, who simply dominated defensively while impressing offensively. Yet another stellar pick by now-annual draft-day winners the Dallas Stars, Bichsel looks like he can be a virtual Owen Power clone, and maybe even better defensively.

Sweden 11, Austria 0
I don't have much to say here, hard to comment on such a mismatch. I look forward to seeing Sweden vs. some more stout competition.

USA 5, Latvia 2
Great outing for Latvia and a decidedly meh effort by the Americans, but in the end the far more talented Americans won out. I enjoyed watching one of my all-time draft-day favorites out of Latvia in Sandis Vilmanis -- he's going to be one hell of a middle six forward for the Florida Panthers one day. For USA, there were a lot of disappointments, especially on the blueline. Though the best player for USA was far-and-away Colorado prospect Sean Behrens -- who was truly, truly exceptional shift in and shift out -- the only other D who played even a pretty good game was Ryan Chesley. Luke Hughes made some great plays, but also made some hair-pulling blunders. The trio of Lane Hutson, Luke Mittlestadt and Ryan Ufko were nothing short of horrific defensively and one of them should be benched next game for Seamus Casey, who is far superior at handling the defensive zone.

At forward, Jimmy Snuggerud (STL) clearly stood out to me as the runaway top forward. Red Savage (DET) and Dylan Duke (TB) impressed in the bottom 6, as did 2023-eligible power forward Charlie Stramel. The biggest disappointment was without a doubt Logan Cooley, who was godawful -- the worst game I've ever seen him play. Watching Cooley dangle around and fail to utilize his teammates until he turned the puck over time and time again, I wondered why they just didn't demote him to a lower line like the Finns did with Lambert. But it wasn't just Cooley, outside of Behrens and Snuggerud and a handful of others this whole team will need to improve if they hope to medal.

Czechia 5, Canada 2
Obviously, the game of the day. Tough to say who the star of the day was, Switzerland's Lian Bichsel or Czechia's Stanislav Svozil. Svozil dominated every inch of ice in all three zones, he was an absolute monster, adding a goal and a highlight-reel assist to an almost historic defensive, shut-down effort. I couldn't be more proud of how that kid played. The Czech blueline was just terrific top to bottom, with David Jiricek and Tomas Hamara also performing in spectacular fashion.

As relentless as the Czech forwards were as a unit, one has to be concerned with the Canadian blueline. In one way or another, players like Allen, Hinds, Korchinski and Zellweger were all sorely overmatched, especially on the rush and down low. Gaudreau was not good in goal, but his defense did not give him much help. Canada's best player, not surprisingly, was 2023 1st-overall-pick-de-facto Conor Bedard, who is just beautiful to watch play hockey. So explosive and dynamic, every time he touches the puck it's must-see-TV. I was also impressed with Dylan Guenther, who was dangerous all game long. I'm still baffled by the Canadian decision not to take Owen Beck in lieu of a far inferior player in Zach Dean, who may have cost Canada the game with an ill-advised match penalty early in the game. I felt Shane Wright also played a good game, but Fantilli was flashier than he was effective and overall the Czech centers, especially Sapovaliv and Kulich, sorely outplayed the Canadians up the middle.
I still have to double take when I see "Brad Lambert" as a Finn. I knew there must be some NHL connection, sure enough, his uncle Lane is a former player, and now coach of the Isles.

I'm still not sure Tom picked the right guy, Nemec over Jiricek, but I'm sure he'll be good for us.

Simon making me eat my words with his performace today, but I didn't dislike the pick THAT much. I just thought Jiricek was the better one for us at the time. I'm sure they're both going to be solid top pairing dudes.
 
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Devs3cups

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I still have to double take when I see "Brad Lambert" as a Finn. I knew there must be some NHL connection, sure enough, his uncle Lane is a former player, and now coach of the Isles.

I'm still not sure Tom picked the right guy, Nemec over Jiricek, but I'm sure he'll be good for us.
What makes you prefer Jiricek over Nemec thus far?
 
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StevenToddIves

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Notes on the WJC:

Finland 5, Slovakia 2
From a Finnish standpoint, I was extremely happy with how they bounced back from a crushing loss vs. Switzerland. Primarily, Joakim Kemell (NSH) and Brad Lambert (WPG), whose play in the opening loss could both only be described as "godawful" -- both of these talented kids were dangerous all game. Other forwards who impressed were two of my draft-writing favorites, Jani Nyman (SEA) and Oliver Kapanen (MTL), both of whom I though played phenomenal games. On defense, I am proud to say the Finnish standout was clearly Devils 2021-draft-steal Topias Vilen, who has probably shown the most stratospheric prospect progression of any Devils defense draftee this entire decade. Every aspect of his game -- very single one -- has improved exponentially in the past two seasons, and he looks like not only a legit candidate for an NHL top 4 one day, but also like a guy who is polished enough to compete for a NJ roster spot next year. If you're ranking the Devils prospects, where do you put Vilen today? Of course Luke Hughes is at the top with Simon Nemec close behind, and I'd say Mukhamadullin is probably at #3. But Vilen could be in the conversation for the #4 slot along with more-known names like Holtz, Gritsyuk and Casey right now. He's been just that good.

Speaking of Simon Nemec, he was terrific -- so smooth with his outlets and passing, very solid and composed defensively although he still struggles against speed/power rushes against. There's no reason to think he won't be a star at the NHL level. I was also very impressed -- even in a losing effort -- with 2023-draft-eligible Dalibor Dvorsky -- I'll get into him more later, but I want to discuss the other games and I have a lot to do tonight.

Sweden 1, Germany 0
Very competitive game, could have been more "entertaining". The clear-cut star here was German goalie Nikita Quapp, who stood on his head saving 43 of 44. A 6th round pick of Carolina in 2021, Quapp is 6'3 and athletic and a clear reminder that Carolina has drafted better than any team in the eastern conference over the past half-decade. For skaters, I was severely impressed with the power game of F Julian Lutz, a Arizona 2nd round pick in 2022. Lutz plays the basic, old-school crash the crease game as well as any forward I've seen out of Germany in the past decade and is a very good bet to be an excellent NHL middle-6er in a few years. I've been very critical of Arizona's drafting over recent years -- they're terrible on the whole -- but Lutz was a gem of a pick.

For Sweden, I was concentrating a lot on likely 2023 top 5 pick Leo Carlsson. There's really nothing not to like here -- Carlsson is big, fast and smart. He can dangle and sauce passes like nobody's business. I think he needs to learn to shoot more and assert himself, sometimes he'll dangle when he'd be better off firing away. Right now I have him ranked #4 after only Bedard, Michkov and Fantilli. I thought the best Swedish forward might have been their goal-scorer, Filip Bystedt (SJ). A draft pick I heavily criticized (and still do), Bystedt is very good at using his size/skating against smaller competition, and has truly asserted himself vs Austria and Germany. I'm curious -- though still somewhat skeptical -- to see how he'll perform against stronger competition.

Switzerland 3, Latvia 2 (OT)
How about them Swiss? Maybe the best game of the tourney -- scoring chances end to end, while both goalies stood on their respective heads. Kevin Pasche was a little less busy on the Swiss end, but played great and was brilliant in the shootout. At 5'9, he's not a likely NHL net minder, but he's athletic and competitive and fun to watch. For the Latvians, Patrias Berzins was nothing short of brilliant in defeat. At 6'1-185, I think he has back-up potential for the NHL, and at the very least could be an AHL net minder. Undrafted last year, he's eligible again in 2023.

My standout skater for Latvia these past two games might just be LD Niks Fenenko, a 6'1-185 2023 draft-eligible who skates exceptionally and is excellent on both sides of the puck. He's just a rock-solid defender who also possesses plus capabilities shooting, passing and handling the puck. He's a great late-round sleeper candidate for a 2023 class which is a bit thin on the back end.

For the Swiss, the dramatic tying goal in the 3rd was scored on a great shot by a guy I talked about a lot for last year's draft, LD Rodwin Dionicio. Dionicio has one of the most intriguing backgrounds of any player in the WJC -- he's of mixed ethnic background and was actually born in New Jersey. He's also big (6'2-205), skates well, willing to play a gritty physical game and knows what to do with the puck. Dionicio can blast it from the blueline and gave the Latvians fits all game. He went undrafted last year -- although he was vocally ranked by yours truly -- and is available as an over-ager in 2023. He'd be a great pick in the 6th or 7th for NJ, especially considering his twin connections to NJ and Switzerland.

No talk of the Swiss could be complete without a mention of Lian Bichsel. A steal by Dallas at #18 last year, he could be on the level with higher-regarded and similar D prospects like Owen Power and Simon Edvinsson. There's a reason why Dallas has been the best-drafting team in the Western Conference over the past half-decade.

Czechia Blowing Out Austria, I'm Watching As I Write This
The Czechs are for real and Austria is likely overmatched in this tourney, so there's only so much one can divine from this game. I'd like to reiterate that the best player in this tourney so far is LD Stanislav Svozil -- he was dominant against Canada and the Austrians are barely a challenge for him. He's going to be a top 4 NHL D with all-star type upside, and I will go on record -- again and again -- saying the worst Devils 3rd round pick since Connor Chatham was Samu Salminen (#68, 2021), allowing the division-rival Columbus Blue Jackets to snag a potential future star in Svozil with the very next pick.

Speaking of Columbus, they also drafted another future star defender in David Jiricek last year. Holy crap, is this kid good. You just can't beat him down low, his shot is a bomb and he's just so smart on both sides of the puck. I don't think I'm overselling Jiricek by saying this kid's upside is Norris Trophy-level.

I also want to call out another of my draft-day favorites in Jiri Kulich, who plays a game of intelligence/compete very reminiscent of our own Dawson Mercer, only faster. An absolute steal for Buffalo at #30 overall last year, he made up for meh Sabres picks of Savoie at #8 and Ostlund at #16 and right now I'd rank him as the best prospect of the three.

We need to talk about how undervalued the Czech and Slovak prospects have become on draft day. Up and down this line-up -- which is certainly capable of competing for the gold medal this year -- there are "under-drafted" players. Already, in a 2022 re-draft Kulich is likely top 15 and Jiricek might go #2 overall. Svozil is certainly a re-draft 1st rounder for 2021. I'm not even mentioning later steals like C Matyas Sapovaliv (#48 VEG 2022). And I also happily have to mention 2022 Devils 5th rounder Petr Hauser, who looks outstanding paired with Sapovaliv on a monster, dominant two-way line. Hauser might already be challenging for the mid-2nd in a 2022 re-draft, and looks capable of one day achieving a power role in an NHL middle 6, if he can improve his skating a notch or two.
 

Captain3rdLine

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Notes on the WJC:

Finland 5, Slovakia 2
From a Finnish standpoint, I was extremely happy with how they bounced back from a crushing loss vs. Switzerland. Primarily, Joakim Kemell (NSH) and Brad Lambert (WPG), whose play in the opening loss could both only be described as "godawful" -- both of these talented kids were dangerous all game. Other forwards who impressed were two of my draft-writing favorites, Jani Nyman (SEA) and Oliver Kapanen (MTL), both of whom I though played phenomenal games. On defense, I am proud to say the Finnish standout was clearly Devils 2021-draft-steal Topias Vilen, who has probably shown the most stratospheric prospect progression of any Devils defense draftee this entire decade. Every aspect of his game -- very single one -- has improved exponentially in the past two seasons, and he looks like not only a legit candidate for an NHL top 4 one day, but also like a guy who is polished enough to compete for a NJ roster spot next year. If you're ranking the Devils prospects, where do you put Vilen today? Of course Luke Hughes is at the top with Simon Nemec close behind, and I'd say Mukhamadullin is probably at #3. But Vilen could be in the conversation for the #4 slot along with more-known names like Holtz, Gritsyuk and Casey right now. He's been just that good.

Speaking of Simon Nemec, he was terrific -- so smooth with his outlets and passing, very solid and composed defensively although he still struggles against speed/power rushes against. There's no reason to think he won't be a star at the NHL level. I was also very impressed -- even in a losing effort -- with 2023-draft-eligible Dalibor Dvorsky -- I'll get into him more later, but I want to discuss the other games and I have a lot to do tonight.

Sweden 1, Germany 0
Very competitive game, could have been more "entertaining". The clear-cut star here was German goalie Nikita Quapp, who stood on his head saving 43 of 44. A 6th round pick of Carolina in 2021, Quapp is 6'3 and athletic and a clear reminder that Carolina has drafted better than any team in the eastern conference over the past half-decade. For skaters, I was severely impressed with the power game of F Julian Lutz, a Arizona 2nd round pick in 2022. Lutz plays the basic, old-school crash the crease game as well as any forward I've seen out of Germany in the past decade and is a very good bet to be an excellent NHL middle-6er in a few years. I've been very critical of Arizona's drafting over recent years -- they're terrible on the whole -- but Lutz was a gem of a pick.

For Sweden, I was concentrating a lot on likely 2023 top 5 pick Leo Carlsson. There's really nothing not to like here -- Carlsson is big, fast and smart. He can dangle and sauce passes like nobody's business. I think he needs to learn to shoot more and assert himself, sometimes he'll dangle when he'd be better off firing away. Right now I have him ranked #4 after only Bedard, Michkov and Fantilli. I thought the best Swedish forward might have been their goal-scorer, Filip Bystedt (SJ). A draft pick I heavily criticized (and still do), Bystedt is very good at using his size/skating against smaller competition, and has truly asserted himself vs Austria and Germany. I'm curious -- though still somewhat skeptical -- to see how he'll perform against stronger competition.

Switzerland 3, Latvia 2 (OT)
How about them Swiss? Maybe the best game of the tourney -- scoring chances end to end, while both goalies stood on their respective heads. Kevin Pasche was a little less busy on the Swiss end, but played great and was brilliant in the shootout. At 5'9, he's not a likely NHL net minder, but he's athletic and competitive and fun to watch. For the Latvians, Patrias Berzins was nothing short of brilliant in defeat. At 6'1-185, I think he has back-up potential for the NHL, and at the very least could be an AHL net minder. Undrafted last year, he's eligible again in 2023.

My standout skater for Latvia these past two games might just be LD Niks Fenenko, a 6'1-185 2023 draft-eligible who skates exceptionally and is excellent on both sides of the puck. He's just a rock-solid defender who also possesses plus capabilities shooting, passing and handling the puck. He's a great late-round sleeper candidate for a 2023 class which is a bit thin on the back end.

For the Swiss, the dramatic tying goal in the 3rd was scored on a great shot by a guy I talked about a lot for last year's draft, LD Rodwin Dionicio. Dionicio has one of the most intriguing backgrounds of any player in the WJC -- he's of mixed ethnic background and was actually born in New Jersey. He's also big (6'2-205), skates well, willing to play a gritty physical game and knows what to do with the puck. Dionicio can blast it from the blueline and gave the Latvians fits all game. He went undrafted last year -- although he was vocally ranked by yours truly -- and is available as an over-ager in 2023. He'd be a great pick in the 6th or 7th for NJ, especially considering his twin connections to NJ and Switzerland.

No talk of the Swiss could be complete without a mention of Lian Bichsel. A steal by Dallas at #18 last year, he could be on the level with higher-regarded and similar D prospects like Owen Power and Simon Edvinsson. There's a reason why Dallas has been the best-drafting team in the Western Conference over the past half-decade.

Czechia Blowing Out Austria, I'm Watching As I Write This
The Czechs are for real and Austria is likely overmatched in this tourney, so there's only so much one can divine from this game. I'd like to reiterate that the best player in this tourney so far is LD Stanislav Svozil -- he was dominant against Canada and the Austrians are barely a challenge for him. He's going to be a top 4 NHL D with all-star type upside, and I will go on record -- again and again -- saying the worst Devils 3rd round pick since Connor Chatham was Samu Salminen (#68, 2021), allowing the division-rival Columbus Blue Jackets to snag a potential future star in Svozil with the very next pick.

Speaking of Columbus, they also drafted another future star defender in David Jiricek last year. Holy crap, is this kid good. You just can't beat him down low, his shot is a bomb and he's just so smart on both sides of the puck. I don't think I'm overselling Jiricek by saying this kid's upside is Norris Trophy-level.

I also want to call out another of my draft-day favorites in Jiri Kulich, who plays a game of intelligence/compete very reminiscent of our own Dawson Mercer, only faster. An absolute steal for Buffalo at #30 overall last year, he made up for meh Sabres picks of Savoie at #8 and Ostlund at #16 and right now I'd rank him as the best prospect of the three.

We need to talk about how undervalued the Czech and Slovak prospects have become on draft day. Up and down this line-up -- which is certainly capable of competing for the gold medal this year -- there are "under-drafted" players. Already, in a 2022 re-draft Kulich is likely top 15 and Jiricek might go #2 overall. Svozil is certainly a re-draft 1st rounder for 2021. I'm not even mentioning later steals like C Matyas Sapovaliv (#48 VEG 2022). And I also happily have to mention 2022 Devils 5th rounder Petr Hauser, who looks outstanding paired with Sapovaliv on a monster, dominant two-way line. Hauser might already be challenging for the mid-2nd in a 2022 re-draft, and looks capable of one day achieving a power role in an NHL middle 6, if he can improve his skating a notch or two.
Been saying Vilen is probably our most underrated prospect at this point. Has legitimate top 4 potential and might make up for the not so great looking Stillman and Salminen picks.
 

StevenToddIves

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Sadly Fitzy passed him up not once, but twice! Instead grabbing Stillman, then Salminen. One of those two might be a decent AHLer. Long shot for Chase to make it in the NHL as a bottom sixer (I still have hope). Aside from Luke, who fell into his hands, it (2021) was a pretty shit draft for Tom. Vilen and Malek might be something down the road, but otherwise, bleh.

Edit: Good to see Vilen might help salvage this draft a bit. Good showing in this tourney I see.
The Stillman pick at least had the logic of going for a physical/interior forward for the Devils system which was (and still is) a major need. I feel Stillman should be a good 4th liner at the pro level. The Salminen pick had no logic. He was not a top 50 player when drafted in my estimation, he did not fill a particular need except being very good in the face-off circle, and he was a big-time project. Aside from Svozil -- who could be an NHL all-star -- the three players drafted after him all look to have high NHL probability (Carter Mazur, Simon Robertson, Anton Olsson) and Salminen would have to be considered a long shot at best.

But fortunately, I agree with you on Vilen -- the kid looks simply outstanding, far and away the best defenseman on Team Finland. And we need to keep in mind that if both Luke Hughes and Topias Vilen turn into good defensemen for the NJ Devils, the rest of the 2021 draft crop could completely wash out and it would still have to be considered a successful draft year.
 

StevenToddIves

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What makes you prefer Jiricek over Nemec thus far?
People who read my draft writing likely recall that my top 4 for 2022 was -- in order -- Wright, Slafkovsky, Jiricek, Nemec. Anyone who had Cooley in that top 2 was nuts to me, I had Cooley neck and neck with Gauthier for #5.

Right now? I'd say my top 5 would be -- in order -- Slafkovsky, Jiricek, Wright, Nemec, Gauthier.

This is by no means an insult to Nemec, whom I am very high on. I feel Nemec has the upside of a 60-point NHL defenseman who is also very good in his own end, so we're talking near-Norris caliber type talent. But I prefer Jiricek slightly -- again no insult to Nemec -- because I feel he can be a top-shut down defender at the highest levels while offering close to Nemec's offense and a high level of physicality and intimidation.

I am not lamenting the pick of Nemec, I think he's phenomenal and destined for NHL stardom. But he's a different "player type" than Jiricek, and I prefer Jiricek's player type slightly more.
 
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StevenToddIves

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I still have to double take when I see "Brad Lambert" as a Finn. I knew there must be some NHL connection, sure enough, his uncle Lane is a former player, and now coach of the Isles.

I'm still not sure Tom picked the right guy, Nemec over Jiricek, but I'm sure he'll be good for us.

Simon making me eat my words with his performace today, but I didn't dislike the pick THAT much. I just thought Jiricek was the better one for us at the time. I'm sure they're both going to be solid top pairing dudes.
It's going to be fun to envision the bluelines for both the Devils and Columbus in 5 years, and they'll likely be two of the best in the NHL.

Let's take a stab:

NJ 2028-29
L. Hughes-Marino
Siegenthaler-Nemec
Mukhamadullin-Hamilton
somehow not making the cut: Okhotyuk, Vilen, Casey, etc etc etc

Columbus 2028-29:
Svozil-Jiricek
Mateychuk-Peeke
Werenski-Ceulemans

I mean, that's just ridiculous talent and balance for both teams.

As far as Brad Lambert goes, I wrote about him at length leading up to last year's draft. His upside -- and this cannot be understated -- is absolutely immense. Winnipeg -- who loves swinging for the fences on draft day -- took an immense home-run swing with him at #30 last year. His skating/puck-skill combo might have been tops in the entire draft last year. But his mental game is... well, fragile. If he pans out? Lambert could be an electrifying, top-line scorer at any level. But his downside is just as stratospheric, and I suppose time will ultimately tell.
 

evnted

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For Sweden, I was concentrating a lot on likely 2023 top 5 pick Leo Carlsson. There's really nothing not to like here -- Carlsson is big, fast and smart. He can dangle and sauce passes like nobody's business. I think he needs to learn to shoot more and assert himself, sometimes he'll dangle when he'd be better off firing away. Right now I have him ranked #4 after only Bedard, Michkov and Fantilli. I thought the best Swedish forward might have been their goal-scorer, Filip Bystedt (SJ). A draft pick I heavily criticized (and still do), Bystedt is very good at using his size/skating against smaller competition, and has truly asserted himself vs Austria and Germany. I'm curious -- though still somewhat skeptical -- to see how he'll perform against stronger competition.
great write ups as always STI. question for you, what's your comfort level on moving carlsson over fantilli? i've had leo behind only bedard and michkov for a bit now. nothing against fantilli, who encapsulates just about everything an nhl gm would want in a prospect, but i think carlsson has more of that soft skill that's gonna let him hit a higher threshold at the next level. always looks composed, always drives the middle, always seems to be making the right play. the way he responds to pressure and navigates through traffic is absurd, it looks like he's skating through open ice. fantilli's toolkit is amazing and lets him overwhelm most opponents he goes against, but i don't think it's as far away from carlsson's tools as leo's mental game is from fantilli's. even last year with the steel i always felt there was a little bit left to be desired from fantilli's processing of the game. still plenty of time to go in the season and i'll have no issue flipping my opinion should i see things change, but i really do wonder if carlsson can follow that barkov path of going 2OA, having the pick questioned (more heavily due to being european), and then ultimately live up to the pedigree
 

StevenToddIves

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great write ups as always STI. question for you, what's your comfort level on moving carlsson over fantilli? i've had leo behind only bedard and michkov for a bit now. nothing against fantilli, who encapsulates just about everything an nhl gm would want in a prospect, but i think carlsson has more of that soft skill that's gonna let him hit a higher threshold at the next level. always looks composed, always drives the middle, always seems to be making the right play. the way he responds to pressure and navigates through traffic is absurd, it looks like he's skating through open ice. fantilli's toolkit is amazing and lets him overwhelm most opponents he goes against, but i don't think it's as far away from carlsson's tools as leo's mental game is from fantilli's. even last year with the steel i always felt there was a little bit left to be desired from fantilli's processing of the game. still plenty of time to go in the season and i'll have no issue flipping my opinion should i see things change, but i really do wonder if carlsson can follow that barkov path of going 2OA, having the pick questioned (more heavily due to being european), and then ultimately live up to the pedigree
I'm not sure how much draft writing I'll have the time to do this year (full-time job, looking to buy a bar and writing a novel, a lot on my plate) but I'd like to say that I'm uncomfortable moving either Carlsson or Fantilli over Michkov at #2. I feel that, much like Bedard, Michkov is an unconsciously prodigal scoring machine and he's just so good at creating offense there almost aren't enough words to describe it.

I prefer Fantilli to Carlsson even though I'd rank Carlsson higher in terms of passing acuity and hockey IQ, two of my strongest category weights for a center. I just feel Fantilli's athleticism makes him a match-up impossibility, and I prefer his tendency to always take the puck to the middle to Carlsson's more perimeter game. Make no mistake, these are both brilliant, brilliant prospects and a lot can change. But right now I'm still at Fantilli at #3 and Carlsson at #4.

In your defense, I'd have to say that Fantilli was downright awful in Canada's openin loss vs. Czechia, and the Canadians might have made a big mistake leaving Owen Beck at home and opting for a still-slightly-immature Fantilli as the 2C. Carlsson has been very good -- though not quite exceptional -- in Sweden's opening victories against somewhat questionable competition in Austria and Germany. If anything, Bedard was Canada's best player in the opener and expanded his already sizable lead at #1, and my biggest regret for the 2023 WJC is not being able to watch Michkov play in it.

Thanks again for the praise, and of course I love reading all of your terrific posts, as well.
 

evnted

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Apr 14, 2016
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I'm not sure how much draft writing I'll have the time to do this year (full-time job, looking to buy a bar and writing a novel, a lot on my plate) but I'd like to say that I'm uncomfortable moving either Carlsson or Fantilli over Michkov at #2. I feel that, much like Bedard, Michkov is an unconsciously prodigal scoring machine and he's just so good at creating offense there almost aren't enough words to describe it.

I prefer Fantilli to Carlsson even though I'd rank Carlsson higher in terms of passing acuity and hockey IQ, two of my strongest category weights for a center. I just feel Fantilli's athleticism makes him a match-up impossibility, and I prefer his tendency to always take the puck to the middle to Carlsson's more perimeter game. Make no mistake, these are both brilliant, brilliant prospects and a lot can change. But right now I'm still at Fantilli at #3 and Carlsson at #4.

In your defense, I'd have to say that Fantilli was downright awful in Canada's openin loss vs. Czechia, and the Canadians might have made a big mistake leaving Owen Beck at home and opting for a still-slightly-immature Fantilli as the 2C. Carlsson has been very good -- though not quite exceptional -- in Sweden's opening victories against somewhat questionable competition in Austria and Germany. If anything, Bedard was Canada's best player in the opener and expanded his already sizable lead at #1, and my biggest regret for the 2023 WJC is not being able to watch Michkov play in it.

Thanks again for the praise, and of course I love reading all of your terrific posts, as well.
makes sense for sure. all the time in the world to hear people debate fantilli over carlsson, but man is the michkov slander painful to listen to. seems like the poster boy for a prospect people want to find something wrong with. some wild misconceptions out there about his incredible ability to read play, otherwordly scoring ability, and even his, quite literally, historic production. i appreciate that people have taken the time to draft oppositional arguments, but they really don't hold up...at all lol. seeing him more and more commonly ranked 4th or 5th overall (much less 19th, which does exist :laugh:) is something i can't wrap my head around
 
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StevenToddIves

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May 18, 2013
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I'm going to break away from the hockey writing for a few hours and take care of some other things, but I'd like to cheer up the Devils fans with some impressive WJC takes:

1 The best defenseman on both Team Finland and Team Slovakia are -- without a doubt -- Devils prospects. Topias Vilen is a rock on the blueline for the Finns, and Slovakia's medal chances hinge on Nemec more than anything else. This is a cause for great optimism, especially considering Luke Hughes is the most talented defender in the entire tournament for USA.

2 Speaking of great Devils D prospects, I strongly feel we can expect to see Seamus Casey inserted in the USA line-up for Game Two. America's all-offense defensemen like Lane Hutson and Ryan Ufko struggled mightily vs. Latvia, and Luke Mittlestadt often looked overmatched, as well. Casey is far superior defensively to that trio and I'm confident he'll be in the line-up next game.

3 Ok, Luke Hughes had an uneven opener. It's a long tourney, and he's the most talented defenseman playing in it. Let's take a few deep breaths and see how he responds to a bit of adversity.

4 Petr Hauser has been part of a dominant Czech 2nd line paired with center Matyas Sapovaliv. This kid looks like a tremendous pick in the 2022 5th round.
 

StevenToddIves

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May 18, 2013
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Brooklyn, NY
makes sense for sure. all the time in the world to hear people debate fantilli over carlsson, but man is the michkov slander painful to listen to. seems like the poster boy for a prospect people want to find something wrong with. some wild misconceptions out there about his incredible ability to read play, otherwordly scoring ability, and even his, quite literally, historic production. i appreciate that people have taken the time to draft oppositional arguments, but they really don't hold up...at all lol. seeing him more and more commonly ranked 4th or 5th overall (much less 19th, which does exist :laugh:) is something i can't wrap my head around
If I'm a team drafting, say, 9th overall and Michkov falls past the top 3 -- well, let's just say I'm on the phone offering the moon and stars to move up to #4 or -- and this is actually possible given how dumb some NHL GMs are -- even #5 to pick a kid whose upside is, no joke, multiple Art Ross Trophies.

My advice to anyone reading negativity about Matvey Michkov is to ignore the criticism -- often by people who don't even watch the VHL -- and stream one of his games for SKA-Neva St. Petersburg. The VHL is the Russian version of the AHL and Michkov is the best scorer in the league -- with a December 2004 birthday. It's unreal. He's just so dynamic and creative, he's virtually unstoppable.

Make no mistake, Michkov is the #2 prospect in this draft behind only the sublime Conor Bedard. In fact, he'd be my clear-cut #1 in 2022, 2021 and 2020. He's just that spectacular.
 

Captain3rdLine

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Sep 24, 2020
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makes sense for sure. all the time in the world to hear people debate fantilli over carlsson, but man is the michkov slander painful to listen to. seems like the poster boy for a prospect people want to find something wrong with. some wild misconceptions out there about his incredible ability to read play, otherwordly scoring ability, and even his, quite literally, historic production. i appreciate that people have taken the time to draft oppositional arguments, but they really don't hold up...at all lol. seeing him more and more commonly ranked 4th or 5th overall (much less 19th, which does exist :laugh:) is something i can't wrap my head around

If I'm a team drafting, say, 9th overall and Michkov falls past the top 3 -- well, let's just say I'm on the phone offering the moon and stars to move up to #4 or -- and this is actually possible given how dumb some NHL GMs are -- even #5 to pick a kid whose upside is, no joke, multiple Art Ross Trophies.

My advice to anyone reading negativity about Matvey Michkov is to ignore the criticism -- often by people who don't even watch the VHL -- and stream one of his games for SKA-Neva St. Petersburg. The VHL is the Russian version of the AHL and Michkov is the best scorer in the league -- with a December 2004 birthday. It's unreal. He's just so dynamic and creative, he's virtually unstoppable.

Make no mistake, Michkov is the #2 prospect in this draft behind only the sublime Conor Bedard. In fact, he'd be my clear-cut #1 in 2022, 2021 and 2020. He's just that spectacular.
I don’t think it’s as much about talent and questioning his ability as it is about the Russian factor. First it’s known you won’t get him for 3 years which isn’t the end of the world but is a factor. But there’s always a risk he stays longer, doesn’t come over or goes back over at some point. There’s a level of certainty with Russian prospects that’s become more of a factor in recent times and him having another 3 years at least there isn’t a great sign or start. What if he gets offered some ridiculous money to stay after that? What if he’d rather stay at home and take that money than come over make entry level money and hope the transition goes smoothly. It’s a legitimate concern although he’s more likely to come over like most end up doing.

that’s the reason for him not being ranked at #2 everywhere. Teams might rather take an elite prospect in Fantili or Carlson who’s gonna come right in and be impactful and be there long-term.
 

evnted

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Apr 14, 2016
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I don’t think it’s as much about talent and questioning his ability as it is about the Russian factor. First it’s known you won’t get him for 3 years which isn’t the end of the world. But there’s always a risk he stays longer, doesn’t come over or goes back over at some point. There’s a level of certainty with Russian prospects that’s become more of a factor in recent times and him having another 3 years at least there isn’t a great sign or start. What if he gets offered some ridiculous money to stay after that? What if he’d rather stay at home and take that money than come over make entry level money and hope the transition goes smoothly. It’s a legitimate concern although he’s more likely to come over like most end up doing.
that was certainly the case going into the year, which in fairness, sure, it's a risk, but so could fantilli spend his entire time at michigan and hit free agency afterward. honestly, people are definitely questioning the talent and probably more so projectability of his talent at this point. ultimately, i think it's just galaxy braining one of the more talented prospects we've seen in recent memory. here's one example if you would like to read up on the counter-arguments: The Conundrum of Matvei Michkov
 

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