Blue Jays GDT: 2023 v9 | Thu, Aug 24 | @ BAL | 7:00pm ET/4:00pm PT | Berrios vs Gibson

[Cloned]

Imagine this pitching staff with 2015 offense.

That would’ve been something.

 

[Seath The Scaleless]

This team doesn’t deserve to be in a playoff spot right now.

So who should replace the Jays in the wildcard? Seattle? If you think the Jays offense is average, then Seattle's is definitely below average. Boston? Sure, they've dealt with injuries to their rotation, but even when healthy, the pitching still isn't great. And the Yanks are trash all around.

Jays are a good team and deserve to be in a playoff spot. Defense and pitching have been great and the offense just needs some better luck with RISP.

None of the teams ahead of the Jays are significantly better overall.

 

[dredeye]

So two things. I think at this point if Ryu is healthy and his next start is good and if Manoah even gets another and it’s bad he’ll be sent down to AAA for the season. Kind of feel like they should just do it now. He’s lost this season.

Lastly, I think at this point we just hope the jays get into the post season and hope that’s when the bats come to life. I have very little confidence that happens and feel like we’ll be swept in two again but if the bats can get hit that’s the only shot we have at going on a run

 

[saska sault]

Really? If you didn't care to read it you could've just, I don't know, not read it?

Does it make you feel good to insult people for no real reason? Seems like that choice says more about you than mocking my desire to talk about something I enjoy says about me.

Don't take it too serious, It's a bunch of guys talking sports. It was tounge in cheek more than an actual insult. I was feeling grumpy after watching all the runners left on base and getting beat at mini putt by my wife on vacation, had to do the noble thing and take it out on someone I don't know on the internet.

 

[Suntouchable13]

Hate the Springer ejection. He was walking away with his back turned to the ump but the ump just had to throw him out. He was looking at him and just waiting to toss him. This has been happening way too much in this game. It’s unacceptable. If you want to toss him when he is arguing, fine, but not when he is already walking away with his back turned to you

 

[Scotianhab]

The bats will sink this team. The fact no change has been made to the hitting coaches at all is dumbfounding. 3 hitting coaches employed, perhaps that’s 2 too many and we need to simplify it down to 1. Won’t happen now though.

 

[MK78]

Imagine this pitching staff with 2015 offense.

Heck, even the 2021 offense.

Pitching was clearly the detriment of the 2021 season, they had the offense to make the playoffs and maybe even go deep.

 

[stats1]

The bats will sink this team. The fact no change has been made to the hitting coaches at all is dumbfounding. 3 hitting coaches employed, perhaps that’s 2 too many and we need to simplify it down to 1. Won’t happen now though.

I think it has a lot to do with the stubbornness of certain players not listening or caring to adjust. I haven’t seen any change in Vladdy’s approach or stance in the last 3 years all while his numbers have declined each year. Who would’ve thought this guy would have less than 20 homers at this stage of the season. He’s nowhere close to 90-100 RBI’s that you expect from him. It has nothing to do with guys not being on base. How many DP’s has he hit into in big situations? Numerous, countless. It’s time for him to start adjusting. How he he get jams up on a 90 mph fastball is mind boggling

It’s just unacceptable you can’t put 1 run on the board with the bases loaded time after time after time. It’s dumb

It’s not just Vladdy, take Kirk yesterday for example. All he needed to do was get a fly ball and he’s whiffing on pitches and trying to go yard, zero discipline, and he pops out. It’s gross

 

[stats1]

Once bo is back Dejong should be shot into the sun

You send Espinal down. DeJong can’t hit worth a Damn but his glove is better. I can’t handle Espinal anymore. Batting like .210, small, zero power, and mediocre defense. You can’t even use him as a bat off the bench cause you can’t trust him to get a hit

 

[CherryToke]

You send Espinal down. DeJong can’t hit worth a Damn but his glove is better. I can’t handle Espinal anymore. Batting like .210, small, zero power, and mediocre defense. You can’t even use him as a bat off the bench cause you can’t trust him to get a hit

Can't run or bunt either, just totally useless

 

[CabanaBoy5]

Just heard on the radio that this team has the fourth worst record with RISP of any playoff team in the last 40 years. Mind boggling awful stat.

It’s late enough in the season to say that this team just isn’t going to normalize and we’re going to have to hope the pitching and defence is enough to get us into the playoffs.

Heard an interesting theory as to why their offensive stats are ok overall but hitting with RISP is awful. Without men in scoring position, they are getting more fastballs. These guys can mostly hit those. Once men are on base, they get more changeups and breaking balls, which they do not hit well.

I believe this speaks to their inability to make adjustments. Vladdy having a swing rate over 60% is a perfect example. He’s chasing balls out of the strike zone rather than being selective. Would a hitting coach change help? Perhaps, but someone like Vladdy should make the adjustment on his own. Someone like Chapman has good exit velocity, but is a strikeout machine.

Some call it bad luck. It’s a small factor, one that is a lame excuse cause bad luck doesn’t or shouldn’t last into mid August if you’re a good hitting team. I don’t think the issue is going to get better. Pray the pitching doesn’t falter or we’re not making the playoffs.

 

[Captain Crunch]

So who should replace the Jays in the wildcard? Seattle? If you think the Jays offense is average, then Seattle's is definitely below average. Boston? Sure, they've dealt with injuries to their rotation, but even when healthy, the pitching still isn't great. And the Yanks are trash all around.

Jays are a good team and deserve to be in a playoff spot. Defense and pitching have been great and the offense just needs some better luck with RISP.

None of the teams ahead of the Jays are significantly better overall.

Their record this year vs Baltimore and Tampa, as well as the rest of the AL east, say otherwise. If Ryu can stay healthy, that will help offset the fact that Manoah has fallen off a cliff this season.

 

[Discoverer]

Their record this year vs Baltimore and Tampa, as well as the rest of the AL east, say otherwise. If Ryu can stay healthy, that will help offset the fact that Manoah has fallen off a cliff this season.

They're 3-4 against both the Yankees and Rays. Meh. They're also a combined 5-1 against the Dodgers and Braves - what does that tell us about how good they are?

They've struggled against the Orioles and, until the most recent series, the Red Sox, while being just fine against everyone else in the league.

 

[canucksfan]

2nd best AL team in the last 60 games

 

[Discoverer]

Just heard on the radio that this team has the fourth worst record with RISP of any playoff team in the last 40 years. Mind boggling awful stat.

It’s late enough in the season to say that this team just isn’t going to normalize and we’re going to have to hope the pitching and defence is enough to get us into the playoffs.

Heard an interesting theory as to why their offensive stats are ok overall but hitting with RISP is awful. Without men in scoring position, they are getting more fastballs. These guys can mostly hit those. Once men are on base, they get more changeups and breaking balls, which they do not hit well.

I believe this speaks to their inability to make adjustments. Vladdy having a swing rate over 60% is a perfect example. He’s chasing balls out of the strike zone rather than being selective. Would a hitting coach change help? Perhaps, but someone like Vladdy should make the adjustment on his own. Someone like Chapman has good exit velocity, but is a strikeout machine.

Some call it bad luck. It’s a small factor, one that is a lame excuse cause bad luck doesn’t or shouldn’t last into mid August if you’re a good hitting team. I don’t think the issue is going to get better. Pray the pitching doesn’t falter or we’re not making the playoffs.

FB% with bases empty - 57.6%
FB% with RISP - 57.1%

There doesn't really seem to be a meaningful difference at all.

 

[mikeyz]

Imagine this pitching staff with 2015 offense.

They would easily win the WS.



I would seriously consider putting him in the lineup as a DH. And no I am not joking.

 

[mikeyz]

Just heard on the radio that this team has the fourth worst record with RISP of any playoff team in the last 40 years. Mind boggling awful stat.

It’s late enough in the season to say that this team just isn’t going to normalize and we’re going to have to hope the pitching and defence is enough to get us into the playoffs.

Heard an interesting theory as to why their offensive stats are ok overall but hitting with RISP is awful. Without men in scoring position, they are getting more fastballs. These guys can mostly hit those. Once men are on base, they get more changeups and breaking balls, which they do not hit well.

I believe this speaks to their inability to make adjustments. Vladdy having a swing rate over 60% is a perfect example. He’s chasing balls out of the strike zone rather than being selective. Would a hitting coach change help? Perhaps, but someone like Vladdy should make the adjustment on his own. Someone like Chapman has good exit velocity, but is a strikeout machine.

Some call it bad luck. It’s a small factor, one that is a lame excuse cause bad luck doesn’t or shouldn’t last into mid August if you’re a good hitting team. I don’t think the issue is going to get better. Pray the pitching doesn’t falter or we’re not making the playoffs.

I'm shocked that they're not the worst.

 

[MS]

Some people were worried about the offense coming into the season after the offseason moves. It was something that could have, and quite frankly probably should have, been foreseen by management. A lot of posters here suggested they needed another bat.

You’re missing my point I think. It’s not that he doesn’t make big moves; it’s that he leaves obvious holes in the roster and settles because he thinks that the rest of it should be “good enough.”

We're talking about a 4th outfielder here. And they did try to get guys (ie. Bellinger) but they went elsewhere.

There is no such thing as a perfect roster. Go through every team in MLB and there will be 1 or 2 holes or weak points. We're one of the most top-to-bottom solid/deep teams in MLB and they've been hard all-in for the past couple years making big moves to improve this roster.

This weird RISP thing that's happening is skewing perceptions of the team in a huge way.

 

[CherryToke]

They would easily win the WS.



I would seriously consider putting him in the lineup as a DH. And no I am not joking.

I'd like to see him on the coaching staff. He has a ton of knowledge around revamping swings and he was calm as can be in pressure situations.

 

[Seath The Scaleless]

Without men in scoring position, they are getting more fastballs. These guys can mostly hit those. Once men are on base, they get more changeups and breaking balls, which they do not hit well.

I thought the Jays were right around the middle vs every type of pitch except Changeups (top 10) and Splitters (near the top)

 

[LaP]

FB% with bases empty - 57.6%
FB% with RISP - 57.1%
There doesn't really seem to be a meaningful difference at all.

What about the location of said fastballs though?

 

[LaP]

We're talking about a 4th outfielder here. And they did try to get guys (ie. Bellinger) but they went elsewhere.
There is no such thing as a perfect roster. Go through every team in MLB and there will be 1 or 2 holes or weak points. We're one of the most top-to-bottom solid/deep teams in MLB and they've been hard all-in for the past couple years making big moves to improve this roster.
This weird RISP thing that's happening is skewing perceptions of the team in a huge way.

I'm not sure it's skewing the perception much. I mean for one it makes some games very frustrating to watch and when frustrated people will often overreact a bit. But for the most part people realize the jays are a top 8 team and is among the teams with the potential to go far. And i think most people have honest worries about how the inability to hit with RISP this far in the season could affect the team in playoffs. The playoffs is a different beast than the regular season. You face the best teams every night. You face the best pitchers every night. If you can't get the big hit or can't score from 3rd on a sac fly or from 2nd on a single then it can certainly become a problem.

 

[CabanaBoy5]

I thought the Jays were right around the middle vs every type of pitch except Changeups (top 10) and Splitters (near the top)

I'm just the messenger. The guest was some stats guy called Robert Orr on Fan590. It made sense to me, but I haven't looked at the stats myself.

 

[Discoverer]

What about the location of said fastballs though?

What about it? I doubt pitchers suddenly become more precise in their pitch locations when the Jays get runners in scoring position.

If you're talking about chasing pitches out of the zone, though (and this is all based on Statcast's data):

Chase rate with none on: 26.1% (League average - 27.9%)
Chase rate with RISP: 27.4% (30.2%)

Chase rate on FB with none on: 23.3% (24.3%)
Chase rate on FB with RISP: 25.5% (27.3%)

So there's a small change in their chase rate when they get runners in scoring position, but it turns out they actually expand the zone less than the rest of the league when they're in those situations.

I think people are hypothesizing about what's going on to try to explain something that, based on years and years of evidence, can likely be attributed primarily to shitty luck, even over the course of 100+ games. I've never seen evidence that hitting with runners in scoring position is in any way a sustainable skill.

 

[Eyedea]

I'm not sure it's skewing the perception much. I mean for one it makes some games very frustrating to watch and when frustrated people will often overreact a bit. But for the most part people realize the jays are a top 8 team and is among the teams with the potential to go far. And i think most people have honest worries about how the inability to hit with RISP this far in the season could affect the team in playoffs. The playoffs is a different beast than the regular season. You face the best teams every night. You face the best pitchers every night. If you can't get the big hit or can't score from 3rd on a sac fly or from 2nd on a single then it can certainly become a problem.

The playoffs are a different beast and with that comes extremely odd and fascinating samples. You just never know what you're going to get come playoff time with David Freese's coming up clutch and David Price's blowing up games.

The 2019 Houston Astros had a historically elite offence during the regular season. They then made it to the WS with historically awful offensive numbers (especially with RISP). You can't just expect teams to replicate their regular season success in the playoffs, and likewise it means players who performed poorly in certain situations have a new clean slate and are able to generate some confidence.