Blue Jays GDT: 2023 v13 | **WILDCARD SERIES GAME 2** Wed, Oct 4 | @ Min | 4:30pm ET/1:30pm PT | Berrios vs Gray

[jetsforever]

Braves coming alive

 

[Seath The Scaleless]

LOL crazy ending in the Braves game. Harris and Riley with huge plays

 

[Leafs at Knight]

Gurriel homer haha

 

[Seath The Scaleless]

Lovullo's bold move of pulling Gallen after back to back dusty singles for a guy with 10 career innings under his belt worked out in the end lol

 

[JT AM da real deal]

Gurriel homer haha

Commentators last night said it was a joke of a trade LOL Gurriel and Moreno for a guy Zona was trying to offload Varsho .. pretty much a fireable offense

 

[phillipmike]

Commentators last night said it was a joke of a trade LOL Gurriel and Moreno for a guy Zona was trying to offload Varsho .. pretty much a fireable offense

The trade may not look as great for the Jays as much as it does for Arizona today but let’s not act like we got nothing back.

According to bWAR, Varsho was Arizona’s 3rd best player in 2022 behind only Christian Walker and Zac Gallen and Walker had 70+ PAs than Varsho. So arguably their best player or position player.

bWAR also has Varsho as the Jays 3rd best player in 2023 behind only Bichette and Chapman.

I hated the trade from day 1 because I thought it should have been Kirk for Varsho due to similar control but we have 3 more years to evaluate Varsho and 5 more or Moreno.

Let’s not forget the Kikuchi signing looked like one of the worst in Jays in history in year 1 only for him to turn into a very good middle rotation guy for us integral to making the playoffs. Or the Berrios deal giving up Martin and SWR. Both players have yet to make an impact for the Twins and Berrios was top 30 in starting WAR.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

The trade may not look as great for the Jays as much as it does for Arizona today but let’s not act like we got nothing back.

According to bWAR, Varsho was Arizona’s 3rd best player in 2022 behind only Christian Walker and Zac Gallen and Walker had 70+ PAs than Varsho. So arguably their best player or position player.

bWAR also has Varsho as the Jays 3rd best player in 2023 behind only Bichette and Chapman.

I hated the trade from day 1 because I thought it should have been Kirk for Varsho due to similar control but we have 3 more years to evaluate Varsho and 5 more or Moreno.

Let’s not forget the Kikuchi signing looked like one of the worst in Jays in history in year 1 only for him to turn into a very good middle rotation guy for us integral to making the playoffs. Or the Berrios deal giving up Martin and SWR. Both players have yet to make an impact for the Twins and Berrios was top 30 in starting WAR.

stats are stats .. moreno is best young catcher in game right now and extremely CLUTCH .. and gurriel and his bro are very high average hitters .. varsho is good for 1 thing amazing defense in left and centre field .. we got WIPED out clean in da deal .. most people would not have traded gurriel straight up for varsho .. maybe kirk sure because he is so overweight and defensively and baserunning challenged

 

[GoonieFace]

stats are stats .. moreno is best young catcher in game right now and extremely CLUTCH .. and gurriel and his bro are very high average hitters .. varsho is good for 1 thing amazing defense in left and centre field .. we got WIPED out clean in da deal .. most people would not have traded gurriel straight up for varsho .. maybe kirk sure because he is so overweight and defensively and baserunning challenged

Please stick to hockey

 

[Suntouchable13]

Honestly guys, will Varsho hit? From what everybody can tell, he has a weakness on high pitches so pitchers exploited that easily. Is there hope for him to be an above league average bat? His defense is immaculate, as everybody also knows.

 

[DuklaNation]

Varhso's hitting stats have declined in the last 3 seasons. That's a trend. For one of the best prospects in MLB at the time, Jays needed to get a higher quality bat for Moreno.

 

[GoonieFace]

Honestly guys, will Varsho hit? From what everybody can tell, he has a weakness on high pitches so pitchers exploited that easily. Is there hope for him to be an above league average bat? His defense is immaculate, as everybody also knows.

I’m not sure, he’s pretty susceptible to the high heat, and pitches in general. Obviously the trade looks like a loss, but let’s see Moreno over a longer period before we close the book on this trade.

 

[phillipmike]

stats are stats .. moreno is best young catcher in game right now and extremely CLUTCH .. and gurriel and his bro are very high average hitters .. varsho is good for 1 thing amazing defense in left and centre field .. we got WIPED out clean in da deal .. most people would not have traded gurriel straight up for varsho .. maybe kirk sure because he is so overweight and defensively and baserunning challenged

Since when did Moreno change his name to Adley Rutschman? Moreno is a fine young player that should be fun to watch moving forward but lets not get ahead of ourselves.

If you wouldn't trade 1 year of Gurriel for 4 years of Varsho, then that is all i need to know about your baseball knowledge.

 

[Eyedea]

Like a few of the guys (Vladdy, Bo, Chapman, KK) the numbers at Home vs Away for Varsho were extreme. A babip difference of 80 points just seems unsustainable regardless of the amount of FBs he hits so I expect some improvement at home next year to balance that out a bit. Perhaps the shrinkage of foul territory could improve all offensive numbers next year, but also negatively impact the pitching too.

He hasn't broken out with the bat yet but I see similarities to Jansen's offensive profile.

 

[LaP]

bWAR also has Varsho as the Jays 3rd best player in 2023 behind only Bichette and Chapman.

That's where you should know not to follow blindly a stats. There's no reality where Varsho was the Jays 3rd best player globally (considering all aspect of baseball). Any stats saying that is intrinsically flawed.

 

[Bjindaho]

That's where you should know not to follow blindly a stats. There's no reality where Varsho was the Jays 3rd best player globally (considering all aspect of baseball). Any stats saying that is intrinsically flawed.

You do realize that none of our hitters were particularly good outside of Belt? Basically, a below average hitter who was the best defensive OF in baseball could reasonably have been our 3rd best player because so many guys underachieved.

Also, he was the 3rd best hitter/defensive player (not pitcher).

 

[LaP]

Honestly guys, will Varsho hit? From what everybody can tell, he has a weakness on high pitches so pitchers exploited that easily. Is there hope for him to be an above league average bat? His defense is immaculate, as everybody also knows.

I think he'll remain a guy that will punish pitchers if they miss a pitch but will fail to do well against good pitchers in the zone. He can do better than this year but i think he'll remain a guy that should bat ideally 6th or lower. He's not a bad player.

But a lot of Jays fans are undervaluing Gurriel and Hernandez offensively because of advanced stats. Gurriel had a rough season last year but if you look at his whole career he's a guy hitting around 20 HR and running between 70 and 80 batters in a year on average. Hernandez is more like 25-30HR a year and 75-90 RBIs a year on average. That's overall around 45-50 HR and 145-170 RBI to replace.

There's no reality where KK and Varsho were going to replace that. They could have been closer but it was a lost battle from day 1 imo. Yeah Varsho and KK steal runs with their defense but not 50+ a year i don't think so.

 

[Eyedea]

That's where you should know not to follow blindly a stats. There's no reality where Varsho was the Jays 3rd best player globally (considering all aspect of baseball). Any stats saying that is intrinsically flawed.

I think you can definitely make the case (he was t-3rd with KK btw) based on how you view player contributions this past season. Bo and Chapman are 1 and 2, those are obvious. Springer, Belt, Vladdy all impacted by their positions (DH/1B) and playing time. Varsho had >200 PAs as a CF and hit (when he was a CF) equivalent to what KK did which helped improve his bat value (still a negative), and his defensive runs saved were enough to outrank the closest guy (KK) by half a win, and well over a win on the next closest player (Kirk). Springer was a bit above average as a hitter in RF, but was very poor as a DH.

So yes KK is likely ahead of him if he wasn't injured, but there is an argument that he was better than Belt or Springer.

Of course this all involves placing value on defence, and how much value you place on it. It might not be 1:1 with offence but I believe Varsho was so fantastic in LF/CF that it does boost his value up positively.

 

[LaP]

You do realize that none of our hitters were particularly good outside of Belt? Basically, a below average hitter who was the best defensive OF in baseball could reasonably have been our 3rd best player because so many guys underachieved.

Also, he was the 3rd best hitter/defensive player (not pitcher).

Vlad is a better player than Varsho atm. You can try to convince me otherwise but we will have to agree to disagree.

 

[Eyedea]

I think he'll remain a guy that will punish pitchers if they miss a pitch but will fail to do well against good pitchers in the zone. He can do better than this year but i think he'll remain a guy that should bat ideally 6th or lower. He's not a bad player.

But a lot of Jays fans are undervaluing Gurriel and Hernandez offensively. Gurriel had a rough season last year but if you look at his whole career he's a guy hitting around 20 HR and running between 70 and 80 batters in a year on average. Hernandez is more like 25-30HR a year and 75-90 RBIs a year on average. That's overall around 45-50 HR and 145-170 RBI to replace.

There's no reality where KK and Varsho were going to replace that. They could have been closer but it was a lost battle from day 1 imo. Yeah Varsho and KK steal runs with their defense but not 50+ a year i don't think so.

Gurriel was declining for 4 years straight and was a soon to be free agent. I don't think he fit this team as much as I appreciated his camaraderie with the ball club. I think Teoscar was a big miss that was hard to replace but Seattle also didn't receive the output they had hoped for from him. I think they did fine to move on from them based on their 2023 seasons, but they were unable to recoup the value that was brought in previous years from those guys. If Bellinger was here instead of KK perhaps the lineup would've been more impactful.

But I'm also not interested in targeting Bellinger in FA. Maybe a reunion with Teo might be more enticing if he'd be willing.

 

[CabanaBoy5]

The trade may not look as great for the Jays as much as it does for Arizona today but let’s not act like we got nothing back.

According to bWAR, Varsho was Arizona’s 3rd best player in 2022 behind only Christian Walker and Zac Gallen and Walker had 70+ PAs than Varsho. So arguably their best player or position player.

bWAR also has Varsho as the Jays 3rd best player in 2023 behind only Bichette and Chapman.

I hated the trade from day 1 because I thought it should have been Kirk for Varsho due to similar control but we have 3 more years to evaluate Varsho and 5 more or Moreno.

Let’s not forget the Kikuchi signing looked like one of the worst in Jays in history in year 1 only for him to turn into a very good middle rotation guy for us integral to making the playoffs. Or the Berrios deal giving up Martin and SWR. Both players have yet to make an impact for the Twins and Berrios was top 30 in starting WAR.

If Varsho was the Jays' 3rd best player, the bolded tells us one of two things:

1) bWAR is a bullshit useless statistic, OR

2) shows what a sad, pathetic, underachieving team the 2023 Jays were.

 

[LaP]

Of course this all involves placing value on defence, and how much value you place on it. It might not be 1:1 with offence but I believe Varsho was so fantastic in LF/CF that it does boost his value up positively.

Defense is very important. Whatever it's more important or not or 1:1 is a matter of opinion. I'd say that's probably close to 1:1. But you have to find a balance. Like in hockey you can't win games 0 to -1. You can have the best goalie in the history of the game with the best defense if you can't score you'll fail.

This principle is true in pretty much all team sports. Balance wins not defense. When i'm looking at the Jays offense this year i see a team with two guys who can run batters in on a consistent basis in Vlad and Bo. I see a 3rd one that is aging and is slowly regressing in Springer. Beside that i see a slow on base lineup with no power.

It could have worked with a mvp season by vlad and bo but i still strongly believe Atkins had to aim higher when trading Moreno. He had to get a guy who could bat 4th behind Vlad. Now he'll have to do it on the UFA market or hope a kid can develop as one fast enough.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

Since when did Moreno change his name to Adley Rutschman? Moreno is a fine young player that should be fun to watch moving forward but lets not get ahead of ourselves.

If you wouldn't trade 1 year of Gurriel for 4 years of Varsho, then that is all i need to know about your baseball knowledge.

Did you watch and listen to game on TV last night? .. that announcer pretty much slap daddied Shatkins on da air .. it was an LOL moment .. i don't know squat on BB no doubt but i do hear things about team from my wifes dad who played in MLB for Phillies and then managed for a while and my bro in law who pitched division 1 ncaa at penn state with bro of Jays pitching coach .. and al those guys who know more about BB then you me and everyone else on this site LOL at trading Moreno for vasho .. like they say it is an analytics beanie playing with spreadsheet (kinda like Dubie)

 

[Eyedea]

I think Varsho can be a very good offensive player. He’s still showing quality traits (flyball/linedrive oriented, doesn’t whiff a lot, good contact rate, solid power) but it’s not what is to be expected just yet.

A lot of people forget that he was a top 100 prospect that made the AA to MLB jump during that covid year. He was a bat first catcher that seamlessly switched to the OF, but perhaps he’s put in too much time working on his defence that it took away from his offence. Judging by his attitude and work ethic I’m hopeful he’ll focus on his deficiencies this offseason and turn it around next year.

 

[Suntouchable13]

Defense is very important. Whatever it's more important or not or 1:1 is a matter of opinion. I'd say that's probably close to 1:1. But you have to find a balance. Like in hockey you can't win games 0 to -1. You can have the best goalie in the history of the game with the best defense if you can't score you'll fail.

This principle is true in pretty much all team sports. Balance wins not defense. When i'm looking at the Jays offense this year i see a team with two guys who can run batters in on a consistent basis in Vlad and Bo. I see a 3rd one that is aging and is slowly regressing in Springer. Beside that i see a slow on base lineup with no power.

It could have worked with a mvp season by vlad and bo but i still strongly believe Atkins had to aim higher when trading Moreno. He had to get a guy who could bat 4th behind Vlad. Now he'll have to do it on the UFA market or hope a kid can develop as one fast enough.

Vlad is the key. They were banking on him to be a .900 ops bat that cranks 40 homers. He didn't come close. The offence can't function when he is underachieving as badly as he did this year.

 

[CabanaBoy5]

I think Varsho can be a very good offensive player. He’s still showing quality traits (flyball/linedrive oriented, doesn’t whiff a lot, good contact rate, solid power) but it’s not what is to be expected just yet.

A lot of people forget that he was a top 100 prospect that made the AA to MLB jump during that covid year. He was a bat first catcher that seamlessly switched to the OF, but perhaps he’s put in too much time working on his defence that it took away from his offence. Judging by his attitude and work ethic I’m hopeful he’ll focus on his deficiencies this offseason and turn it around next year.

I just can't get out of my head those feeble 3 swings in the last at-bat where the look was "get me the hell outta here, i'm outmatched, outclassed, i wanna go home".