Blue Jays GDT: 2023 v13 | **WILDCARD SERIES GAME 2** Wed, Oct 4 | @ Min | 4:30pm ET/1:30pm PT | Berrios vs Gray

[phillipmike]

That's where you should know not to follow blindly a stats. There's no reality where Varsho was the Jays 3rd best player globally (considering all aspect of baseball). Any stats saying that is intrinsically flawed.

Sure but he isnt close to being our worst or put differently, the trade to acquire him shouldnt be viewed a final nail in the coffin for Atkins or a firable offense as others have put it. Im trying to bring one extreme side of posters towards reality which is the middle.

Too much gets put on just offense because it is an important part of the game but not the only part. Lost in that global stat are 2 other key components; defense and base running. Varsho may have a below average bat but we are talking;
-the best player in the majors in defensive runs saved
-best in the majors in UZR/150
-4th in range
-5th in the majors in UZR
- 29th arm in baseball
-75 out of 1457 MLB players in BsR
-the Jays best base runner and defender in BsR, DEF rating, UZR, UZR/150, range

This may mean nothing to the average poster but if you recall this this fanbase was up in arms last year because we blew an 8-1 lead in an elimination game in the playoffs because our LFer and CFer couldn't make plays.

So although he is below average bat, he is elite or the top of the league in all other facets of the game.

Last year he was an above average bat. This year he was below average where almost everyone from our 2022 team regressed significantly. To me it might speak more to the coaching and analytics of the Jays staff than it does the hitters when you look at the big picture.

 

[Eyedea]

I just can't get out of my head those feeble 3 swings in the last at-bat where the look was "get me the hell outta here, i'm outmatched, outclassed, i wanna go home".

And I get that, but Jhoan Duran also has to have one of the craziest two pitch combos in the game. 3 mph of separation between his fastball and splitter and yet the splitter drops twice as much as his FB.

 

[phillipmike]

Did you watch and listen to game on TV last night? .. that announcer pretty much slap daddied Shatkins on da air .. it was an LOL moment .. i don't know squat on BB no doubt but i do hear things about team from my wifes dad who played in MLB for Phillies and then managed for a while and my bro in law who pitched division 1 ncaa at penn state with bro of Jays pitching coach .. and al those guys who know more about BB then you me and everyone else on this site LOL at trading Moreno for vasho .. like they say it is an analytics beanie playing with spreadsheet (kinda like Dubie)

This argument makes no sense. If you admit to knowing nothing about baseball but rely only on your father and brother in law because they have baseball experience then you should be pro-Atkins because he played at a higher level than your brother in law and holds higher positions than your wife's dad.

 

[phillipmike]

If Varsho was the Jays' 3rd best player, the bolded tells us one of two things:

1) bWAR is a bullshit useless statistic, OR

2) shows what a sad, pathetic, underachieving team the 2023 Jays were.

Its 2, the Jays offense underachieved in epic proportions.

bWAR has been around the mainstream for 15 plus years and longer in baseball. You cant throw out a complete stat because you dont like what it indicated.

Dont forget, Kevin Pillar was the Jays 2nd best player in 2015; behind only JD and ahead of guys like EE, Bautista, Martin and Estrada.

 

[MK78]

Dont forget, Kevin Pillar was the Jays 2nd best player in 2015; behind only JD and ahead of guys like EE, Bautista, Martin and Estrada.

Pillar was ahead of EE & Bautista?

What are you smoking?

 

[phillipmike]

Pillar was ahead of EE & Bautista?

What are you smoking?

I'm pointing out what WAR indicated;

2015 Toronto Blue Jays Statistics | Baseball-Reference.com

Toronto Blue Jays latest stats and more including batting stats, pitching stats, team fielding totals and more on Baseball-Reference.com

www.baseball-reference.com

1. Donaldson: 7.1
2. Pillar: 5.2
3. EE: 4.9
4. Bautista: 4.8
5. Estrada: 3.9

 

[GreytWun]

I'm pointing out what WAR indicated;

2015 Toronto Blue Jays Statistics | Baseball-Reference.com

Toronto Blue Jays latest stats and more including batting stats, pitching stats, team fielding totals and more on Baseball-Reference.com

www.baseball-reference.com

1. Donaldson: 7.1
2. Pillar: 5.2
3. EE: 4.9
4. Bautista: 4.8
5. Estrada: 3.9

And that is why most people don’t take these numbers serious.

 

[Eyedea]

bWAR also does not account for pitch framing which eliminates a large portion of Martin’s career value.

 

[habamillions]

So you can score runs on Sonny Gray.

 

[phillipmike]

And that is why most people don’t take these numbers serious.

Who is most? It is widespread accepted by baseball and the industry and i would argue 80-90% of this forum does as well.

Its the flavor of the month right now to "use" against Varsho even though it should be a positive for Daulton.

 

[Eyedea]

Who is most? It is widespread accepted by baseball and the industry and i would argue 80-90% of this forum does as well.

Its the flavor of the month right now to "use" against Varsho even though it should be a positive for Daulton.

They’ll only use it as a positive for Moreno, while stating that Varsho’s WAR is inflated.

 

[GreytWun]

Who is most? It is widespread accepted by baseball and the industry and i would argue 80-90% of this forum does as well.

Its the flavor of the month right now to "use" against Varsho even though it should be a positive for Daulton.

Right the same posters who are all “smarter”than everyone uses them. Look pretty foolish justifying some players this year, it’s pretty funny.

 

[phillipmike]

They’ll only use it as a positive for Moreno, while stating that Varsho’s WAR is inflated.

Its my favorite argument.

Varsho's 2022 (first full MLB season): 4.9 WAR and 108 OPS+
Haha Jays got taken to the cleaners trading Moreno and Gurriel for him.

Moreno's 2023 (first full MLB season): 4.3 WAR and 103 OPS+
Wow look at how elite Moreno is and how bad Varsho was and is.

Or Moreno and Gurriel are clutch playoff performers;
Moreno's playoff batting average: .214
Gurriel's playoff batting average: .235
Varsho's 2023 batting average: .220

Checks notes:
Moreno and Gurriel: 4 game playoff sample size.

Right the same posters who are all “smarter”than everyone uses them. Look pretty foolish justifying some players this year, it’s pretty funny.

No one saying they are smarter than anyone. Rather you should use 4+ years to grade a trade with players who have 4+ years of control not grade it in year 1 when the player the Jays acquire is elite or near elite in 2 out of 3 categories. The bat needs work and we have 3 years to find out if he can turn it around.

 

[MK78]

And that is why most people don’t take these numbers serious.

Exactly. I really dislike this new stats era. Anyone who watched that 2015 knew that Pillar was a nice player with some spectacular catches, but he was not better than EE or Bautista.

 

[GreytWun]

Its my favorite argument.

Varsho's 2022: 4.9 WAR and 108 OPS+
Haha Jays got taken to the cleaners. trading Moreno and Gurriel for him.

Moreno's 2023: 4.3 WAR and 103 OPS+
Wow look at how elite Moreno is and how bad Varsho was and is.

Or Moreno and Gurriel are clutch playoff performers;
Moreno's playoff batting average: .214
Gurriel's playoff batting average: .235
Varsho's 2023 batting average: .220

Checks notes:
Moreno and Gurriel: 4 game playoff sample size.



No one saying they are smarter than anyone. Rather you should use 4+ years to grade a trade with players who have 4+ years of control not grade it in year 1 when the player the Jays acquire is elite or near elite in 2 out of 3 categories. The bat needs work and we have 3 years to find out if he can turn it around.

I am not even talking about Varsho.

I am talking about Pillar more valuable than EE and Bautista. No one believes that.

 

[dredeye]

stats are stats .. moreno is best young catcher in game right now and extremely CLUTCH .. and gurriel and his bro are very high average hitters .. varsho is good for 1 thing amazing defense in left and centre field .. we got WIPED out clean in da deal .. most people would not have traded gurriel straight up for varsho .. maybe kirk sure because he is so overweight and defensively and baserunning challenged

This tells me a lot about how little you know about baseball. Moreno is a great young catcher. Varsho is a great young CF which was a need for the team. Who wouldn’t have trade Gurriel for Varsho lol? Just making stuff up. Kirk is a strong defensive catcher. He had a bad year with the bat the same as Gurriel did last year. Gurriel is a free agent at seasons end. Most of us would have preferred it to be Kirk over Moreno but you’re assuming the diamondbacks would have preferred or even wanted him in the deal.

 

[phillipmike]

I am not even talking about Varsho.

I am talking about Pillar more valuable than EE and Bautista. No one believes that.

Fair enough. My mistake.

My point is that Pillar isnt better than those guys in 2015, rather there are outliers every few years and just because a stats may look egregious to the naked eye 5% of the time doesnt mean it should be discredited the other 95% of the time.

 

[Brown Dog]

Varsho was trash.

 

[Eyedea]

Jose Abreu was actual trash and he launched two home runs today. Maybe the Jays should’ve went after him!

 

[tmlfan98]

I love how the extreme Varsho defenders are using his bWAR output because his fWAR (which I personally prefer over bWAR) output does not paint a pretty picture at all of his 2023 season. And I'm saying this as someone who likes Varsho myself. He had more fWAR per PA in CF this season than KK, who everyone loved having here. The large amount of playing time in LF tanked his fWAR output this season. Once he's the fulltime CF next season no one will have problems with him. People easily forget how hard it is to find everyday CF like him.

 

[Cloned]

With every passing OOT game, the GM grave for Atkins gets dug deeper.

Gurriel and Moreno playing key roles for Arizona.

The team that the Jays struggled to score even 1 run against gets smoked in 2 out of 3 games so far.

I’m glad that nearly everyone is calling out his smug, arrogant BS.

 

[Eyedea]

I love how the extreme Varsho defenders are using his bWAR output because his fWAR (which I personally prefer over bWAR) output does not paint a pretty picture at all of his 2023 season. And I'm saying this as someone who likes Varsho myself. He had more fWAR per PA in CF this season than KK, who everyone loved having here. The large amount of playing time in LF tanked his fWAR output this season. Once he's the fulltime CF next season no one will have problems with him. People easily forget how hard it is to find everyday CF like him.

His fWAR still paints him as a 2 win player despite his struggles though. He nearly hit 5 wins as a guy that got tossed around RF/CF/C the year before. I agree that once you stick him in CF that value should go brrr. Optimally the team faced an issue last year where they decided to go into the season with Varsho/KK as starters when in reality it should’ve just been one entrenched in CF.

 

[Suntouchable13]

Bye Baltimore. Join the Jays and the Rays on the golf course.

 

[canucksfan]

Orioles have never been swept since Adley has been with them. This will likely be the first time.

 

[MK78]

Bye Baltimore. Join the Jays and the Rays on the golf course.

LOL, AL East will not have won a game if this game holds up.

I don't feel so bad anymore. Division winners will have played one more game.