Blue Jays GDT: 2023 v13 | **WILDCARD SERIES GAME 2** Wed, Oct 4 | @ Min | 4:30pm ET/1:30pm PT | Berrios vs Gray

[Budz]

Expecting 5-0, 6-1 Twins win. Super fast and super quiet.

 

[Bjindaho]

This is a misleading argument. Playing fewer games and accruing more WAR is not always an accolade because unlike homeruns (for example) WAR can go up or down with more games played. At one point during his hot streak Davis Schneider was worth over 3fWAR in 1/4th of the games Varsho had played. Playing more games allows WAR to normalize over the course of a season, so its actually harder to maintain a high WAR over more games than it is over a few.

No, he wasn't.

Davis Schneider only made it to 2.3 or 2.4 fWAR.

Also, in twice as many games with the same stats, Varsho would have twice as much fWAR. That being said, we are not talking about twice as many games, we are talking about more games in CF which wouldn't double his fWAR, it would just boost it (for the record, Varsho has been the best defensive CF in baseball two years running now).

 

[Eyedea]

This is a misleading argument. Playing fewer games and accruing more WAR is not always an accolade because unlike homeruns (for example) WAR can go up or down with more games played. At one point during his hot streak Davis Schneider was worth over 3fWAR in 1/4th of the games Varsho had played. Playing more games allows WAR to normalize over the course of a season, so its actually harder to maintain a high WAR over more games than it is over a few.

Schneider never hit 3 fWAR (he was 2.4 at peak) and it was obvious he'll cool down from an unsustainable start. We're talking about a guy that has been struggling offensively and still put up a stable 2 win year. Using your argument how can we assume Moreno will be a 3+ win catcher in the future? He only really boosted his numbers after a hot streak in September.

 

[Nineteen67]

I got a 392. I was strongly considering a Helly but Hellcats are just too powerful to drive comfortably on the streets, you chirp just turning the corner at a stop sign with very little pedal pressure. The 485hp I got is plenty fun ...

No comebacks, they are gone once this year is done. The govt will introduce a gas guzzler tax at the manufacturer level, sometime in the future that will make it virtually impossible to affordably own one.

Electric cars are unfortunately the bland way of the future, even with the power my car has I could never beat one off the line, 1/4 mile they would beat me, 1/2 mile I would beat most of them. I'm not a fan of electric cars but I see their purpose and they are the way of the future, even with all the disgusting environmental damage they create to dig up the lithium, and yes I get gas power has it's own demons when to comes to the environment, which seldom is brough up in the gas vs electric debate, they are still the way of the future.

I bought a last call 2023 Charger 392 scat pack but missed out on he challenger.
I love the little Charger and hope to keep it forever.

 

[Cloned]

Atkins’ future might depend on this series and this game.

 

[TheMadHatTrick]

It's a worthless argument because

1. We weren't getting Carroll or someone better than a guy coming off a 4+ win season; and,
2. Moreno would be on the bench and Gurriel would be gifting base hits in left

This is a misdirect. We don't know what we could or couldn't have gotten. Perhaps we were offered players without as much WAR as Varsho at the time but who turned out better this year and going forward. The point is you judge the players based on what they do or do not give you, not against some hypothetical worse return we could have gotten instead. If a realtor sells a house for well below market value and says "well, that was the best offer I got" he'd probably be fired by his company.

Sure, Gurriel would have been gifting more hits in left field than Varsho and still produced as much wins against replacement. In fact, if you compared only their WAR accrued as LF (sans the positive positional adjustment in CF) Gurriel probably has more. People keep crying about how good he would be in centerfield, but when we made the trade we already had signed Kiermeir, so its not like we didn't know going in he was going to play LF most of the time. In fact, I pointed out at the time that having two elite outfielders beside each other actually depresses the practical value of their range because they overlap on each other's territory. Additionally, having Kiermeier in CF would have theoretically saved a bunch of Gurriel's supposed gifted runs from happening.

It's worth noting that for as much as people like to use Gurriel's defense as an excuse for the trade he actually had 14 DRS this year (second most among LF), to go with a positive dfWAR of 5.4 that lead the majors among left fielders with at least 500 innings played. Varsho was sixth with a -0.1 dfWAR in LF.

Major League Leaderboards - 2023 - Fielding | FanGraphs Baseball

www.fangraphs.com

 

[Larcos_Unal]

If they lose today, makes that over the top celebration a little cringe worthy lol.
Hope they used all the champagne and didn't leave any for future rounds.

 

[HockeyThoughts]

Expecting 5-0, 6-1 Twins win. Super fast and super quiet.

It almost sounds like you're hoping for this. Why even hang around here if you aren't a fan?

 

[TheMadHatTrick]

No, he wasn't.

Davis Schneider only made it to 2.3 or 2.4 fWAR.

Also, in twice as many games with the same stats, Varsho would have twice as much fWAR. That being said, we are not talking about twice as many games, we are talking about more games in CF which wouldn't double his fWAR, it would just boost it (for the record, Varsho has been the best defensive CF in baseball two years running now).

Perhaps I'm mistaken but I recall him reaching pretty close to 3WAR (2.8?) at one point when people were wondering if we had a potential superstar. Unfortunately there's no way to filter WAR by date on Fangraphs so I can't say definitively. Regardless the point still stands. Schneider about 20 games in was tracking as a 3-4WAR player, Schneider 35 games in looks like more of a 1.5-2WAR player. Games played affects WAR. Again, "doubled" I don't know how much of a boost those games would or would not have made since fangraphs does not allow you to filter WAR by gp.

 

[Eyedea]

I think the Jays were definitely trying to shop around and they weren't just including Moreno's name in talks. Unfortunately this was likely the most palatable offer on the table. Varsho had a bad year offensively, but I can't just write off the two seasons prior and expect this type of offensive production moving forward. Realistically he's a 3-4 win guy, potentially 4+ as a full time CFer. The Jays went for that trade because they saw a need in CF longterm (even if KK was already signed) and the position is always scarce.

In terms of Gurriel producing what will likely be the best defensive year of his career, that's great for him but lord knows nobody wanted to experiment with him there again coming into the year. The flip flopping of people saying Gurriel/Teo needed to go and now they're missing them is sheer folly.

 

[Bjindaho]

This is a misdirect. We don't know what we could or couldn't have gotten. Perhaps we were offered players without as much WAR as Varsho at the time but who turned out better this year and going forward. The point is you judge the players based on what they do or do not give you, not against some hypothetical worse return we could have gotten instead. If a realtor sells a house for well below market value and says "well, that was the best offer I got" he'd probably be fired by his company.

Sure, Gurriel would have been gifting more hits in left field than Varsho and still produced as much wins against replacement. In fact, if you compared only their WAR accrued as LF (sans the positive positional adjustment in CF) Gurriel probably has more. People keep crying about how good he would be in centerfield, but when we made the trade we already had signed Kiermeir, so its not like we didn't know going in he was going to play LF most of the time. In fact, I pointed out at the time that having two elite outfielders beside each other actually depresses the practical value of their range because they overlap on each other's territory. Additionally, having Kiermeier in CF would have theoretically saved a bunch of Gurriel's supposed gifted runs from happening.

It's worth noting that for as much as people like to use Gurriel's defense as an excuse for the trade he actually had 14 DRS this year (second most among LF), to go with a positive dfWAR of 5.4 that lead the majors among left fielders with at least 500 innings played. Varsho was sixth with a -0.1 dfWAR in LF.

Major League Leaderboards - 2023 - Fielding | FanGraphs Baseball

www.fangraphs.com

You are taking statistics and misapplying them.

Gurriel's defensive metrics gain massive boosts from where he played. The difference between Gurriel in AZ and Gurriel in Toronto isn't as simple as saying his numbers would have gotten slightly worse or anything like that. There's some funny business in how OAA calculates for corner outfielders in assymmetric ballparks which makes DEF a fairly useless statistic in unlike ballparks.

By the same token, the mistakes we saw Gurriel make for years, would have exponentially lowered his defensive metrics because they would have cost the team even more bases.

 

[Eyedea]

Perhaps I'm mistaken but I recall him reaching pretty close to 3WAR (2.8?) at one point when people were wondering if we had a potential superstar. Unfortunately there's no way to filter WAR by date on Fangraphs so I can't say definitively. Regardless the point still stands. Schneider about 20 games in was tracking as a 3-4WAR player, Schneider 35 games in looks like more of a 1.5-2WAR player. Games played affects WAR. Again, "doubled" I don't know how much of a boost those games would or would not have made since fangraphs does not allow you to filter WAR by gp.

Major League Leaderboards - 2023 - Batting | FanGraphs Baseball

www.fangraphs.com

This would've been his peak

 

[Bjindaho]

Perhaps I'm mistaken but I recall him reaching pretty close to 3WAR (2.8?) at one point when people were wondering if we had a potential superstar. Unfortunately there's no way to filter WAR by date on Fangraphs so I can't say definitively. Regardless the point still stands. Schneider about 20 games in was tracking as a 3-4WAR player, Schneider 35 games in looks like more of a 1.5-2WAR player. Games played affects WAR. Again, "doubled" I don't know how much of a boost those games would or would not have made since fangraphs does not allow you to filter WAR by gp.

Yes, there is

Here is when he hit 2.3

Major League Leaderboards - 2023 - Batting | FanGraphs Baseball

www.fangraphs.com

 

[TheMadHatTrick]

Schneider never hit 3 fWAR (he was 2.4 at peak) and it was obvious he'll cool down from an unsustainable start. We're talking about a guy that has been struggling offensively and still put up a stable 2 win year. Using your argument how can we assume Moreno will be a 3+ win catcher in the future? He only really boosted his numbers after a hot streak in September.

Dude, you guys were creaming yourself over a two week hotstreak Varsho had earlier in the year, claiming he had "figured things out." Now you're trying to downplay Moreno's numbers in the entire second half of the year as a "September hot streak"? Incredible. Varsho had a 100 WRC+ post all star break. Moreno had a 141 WRC+ as a rookie catcher.

 

[Bjindaho]

I think the Jays were definitely trying to shop around and they weren't just including Moreno's name in talks. Unfortunately this was likely the most palatable offer on the table. Varsho had a bad year offensively, but I can't just write off the two seasons prior and expect this type of offensive production moving forward. Realistically he's a 3-4 win guy, potentially 4+ as a full time CFer. The Jays went for that trade because they saw a need in CF longterm (even if KK was already signed) and the position is always scarce.

In terms of Gurriel producing what will likely be the best defensive year of his career, that's great for him but lord knows nobody wanted to experiment with him there again coming into the year. The flip flopping of people saying Gurriel/Teo needed to go and now they're missing them is sheer folly.

I don't fully agree with that.

I think most people on the boards wanted Teo to stay. Gurriel, on the other hand, was gone the second that the Jays announced that they were reconfiguring the outfield.

 

[Eyedea]

I don't fully agree with that.

I think most people on the boards wanted Teo to stay. Gurriel, on the other hand, was gone the second that the Jays announced that they were reconfiguring the outfield.

I don't think so. There was sentiment here from the anti-Barrio fan club that they needed to disrupt the club and move on from both of them.

 

[TheMadHatTrick]

Major League Leaderboards - 2023 - Batting | FanGraphs Baseball

www.fangraphs.com

This would've been his peak

Thanks. That's good to know for the future. The point still stands. WAR normalizes the more games you play.

 

[Budz]

It almost sounds like you're hoping for this. Why even hang around here if you aren't a fan?

I just don’t see any fire or any passion from this group - they take after management.
They don’t seem to even like playing ball.

 

[Eyedea]

Dude, you guys were creaming yourself over a two week hotstreak Varsho had earlier in the year, claiming he had "figured things out." Now you're trying to downplay Moreno's numbers in the entire second half of the year as a "September hot streak"? Incredible. Varsho had a 100 WRC+ post all star break. Moreno had a 141 WRC+ as a rookie catcher.

Those July/Aug PAs barely accumulate to the entirety of his September (65 2nd half PAs in July/Aug, 84 in Sep). He went from 1.1 fWAR at the end of August to 1.7. And it's so hilarious that we're "creaming" over SSS when you were on the anti-Varsho brigade after any positive game Moreno had.

 

[Bjindaho]

Thanks. That's good to know for the future. The point still stands. WAR normalizes the more games you play.

No, it doesn't. That's a ridiculous thing to say.

If Davis Schneider continued to hit the way he started, he would have put up a huge WAR. Unsustainable hot streaks will normalize (on absolutely every stat), but WAR isn't unique there. A guy who is exceptional defensively playing more defensive will add to his WAR.

By the same token, Shohei Ohtani getting more at-bats adds to his WAR.

 

[Puckstuff]

We were playing the Twins even if we won game 162. The out of town scores made that game literally meaningless.

Ok so it wouldn’t have mattered anyways but the intent sort of matters. If Houston had lost, and the Jays won, I think I would have preferred they tried to win and play Tampa.

 

[Bjindaho]

Ok so it wouldn’t have mattered anyways but the intent sort of matters. If Houston had lost, and the Jays won, I think I would have preferred they tried to win and play Tampa.

I would have called up White, but I have no problems with the hitters resting.

In that scenario, I would have called up White, DFA'd Jackson, then DFA'd Richards if I needed Jackson in an emergency (and put Francis on the playoff roster)

 

[CabanaBoy5]

With our offence, and with Gray pitching, Berrios has to be near perfect today, and I'm afraid he just doesn't have it in him against a mainly left-handed lineup. I hope I'm wrong.

 

[Kurtz]

You are taking statistics and misapplying them.

Gurriel's defensive metrics gain massive boosts from where he played. The difference between Gurriel in AZ and Gurriel in Toronto isn't as simple as saying his numbers would have gotten slightly worse or anything like that. There's some funny business in how OAA calculates for corner outfielders in assymmetric ballparks which makes DEF a fairly useless statistic in unlike ballparks.

By the same token, the mistakes we saw Gurriel make for years, would have exponentially lowered his defensive metrics because they would have cost the team even more bases.

You are taking statistics and misapplying them as well.

If you are going to rationalize individual defensive numbers such as you've done there, how about we just go all the way to the obvious natural conclusion that defensive statistics are way too inexact and noisy to draw any definitive conclusions. And since war is largely based on defensive statistics WAR is also just an easy heuristic and way too inexact to draw specific comparisons.

That's why defensive stats and war deviate so greatly between Fangraphs, Bref and ESPN. It's all made up amalgams meant for ease rather than accuracy.



What we know for a fact is this. When we have to pinch-hit for our left fielder with Merrifield, a struggling .700 OPS hitter, at an important moment of the game...we've f***ed up. f***ed up bad.

 

[Eyedea]

With our offence, and with Gray pitching, Berrios has to be near perfect today, and I'm afraid he just doesn't have it in him against a mainly left-handed lineup. I hope I'm wrong.

Unfortunately I agree. I thought yesterday was a must win in order to ensure game 3 which would have been an advantage for the Jays. Gray is just a mismatch for the team (and against anyone in general). He's hardly had any blowups this year and has been remarkably consistent.