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Blue Jays GDT: 2023 v13 | **WILDCARD SERIES GAME 2** Wed, Oct 4 | @ Min | 4:30pm ET/1:30pm PT | Berrios vs Gray

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Kurtz said:
You are taking statistics and misapplying them as well.

If you are going to rationalize individual defensive numbers such as you've done there, how about we just go all the way to the obvious natural conclusion that defensive statistics are way too inexact and noisy to draw any definitive conclusions. And since war is largely based on defensive statistics WAR is also just an easy heuristic and way too inexact to draw specific comparisons.

That's why defensive stats and war deviate so greatly between Fangraphs, Bref and ESPN. It's all made up amalgams meant for ease rather than accuracy.



What we know for a fact is this. When we have to pinch-hit for our left fielder with Merrifield, a struggling .700 OPS hitter, at an important moment of the game...we've f***ed up. f***ed up bad.
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We didn't have to and I 100% disagreed with the decision.

Also, when you compare like circumstances, Varsho played LF better in both cities (as opposed to comparing them this year where one of them playing in an easy park to field in and the other played in a terrible park to field in).

Also, none of this has anything to do with tonight's game, which is what this thread is for.
 
CabanaBoy5 said:
With our offence, and with Gray pitching, Berrios has to be near perfect today, and I'm afraid he just doesn't have it in him against a mainly left-handed lineup. I hope I'm wrong.
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Berrios has pitched really well against the Twinkies, although they have lots of lefties and he struggles against lefties.

Still, I think he's comfortable in that park and will pitch well.

I'm expecting another low-scoring game tonight, maybe a 2-1 or a 3-2, which is ok because that's kinda the only way we can win with this team.
 
I can't read this whole thing right now so I'll ask: am I the only person that thought the Jays played well enough to win yesterday and just didn't get any breaks? Plus the twins seem to have superhuman outfielders?
 
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The Hanging Jowl said:
I can't read this whole thing right now so I'll ask: am I the only person that thought the Jays played well enough to win yesterday and just didn't get any breaks? Plus the twins seem to have superhuman outfielders?
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Yes, yes you are.

The Jays have looked great at times all year, but the issue has been that they don't execute with runners on and they don't hit enough homers to offset it. This has been the case all year.
 
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The Hanging Jowl said:
I can't read this whole thing right now so I'll ask: am I the only person that thought the Jays played well enough to win yesterday and just didn't get any breaks? Plus the twins seem to have superhuman outfielders?
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I think we got a couple of breaks. A few friendly calls from the ump and a couple of bad defensive plays from their infielders.
 
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ACC1224 said:
IMO, it felt like the game was over in the first inning.
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I agree, once they made it 3-0, it felt like there was no way we were coming back against Lopez. People point that Chapman hit the ball 401 ft....yeah, but it wasn't hit out of the park. Luck was not involved, just a loud out.
 
CabanaBoy5 said:
I agree, once they made it 3-0, it felt like there was no way we were coming back against Lopez. People point that Chapman hit the ball 401 ft....yeah, but it wasn't hit out of the park. Luck was not involved, just a loud out.
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Those are pretty unlucky though. Deepest part of the park, great trajectory. But that’s been an issue for Chapman as he’s rarely been pulling the ball like he used to.
 
I would just like to see the game remain scoreless for a while. Build up some tension for both sides before breaking the goose egg.
 
Eyedea said:
Those are pretty unlucky though. Deepest part of the park, great trajectory. But that’s been an issue for Chapman as he’s rarely been pulling the ball like he used to.
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That's baseball though. One-half inch up or down on the barrel of the bat can be the difference between a home run or a pop-up. Didn't Chapman say that one of the adjustments he was trying to make was hitting the ball more towards centre field? The vast majority of parks that's the deepest so he's really got to hit the sweet spot. I agree with you though, he should be trying to pull the ball to left field.
 
Nineteen67 said:
I bought a last call 2023 Charger 392 scat pack but missed out on he challenger.
I love the little Charger and hope to keep it forever.
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They say the Charger handles better than the Challenger, either way you cant go wrong. Nothing like that 392 rumble.

Watch out for the rear diff, I've already replaced mine once. It sounds like a whine from the suspension when you take slow turns. Class action lawsuit in the states, claiming they built diffs that cant handle the 392 power.
 
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CabanaBoy5 said:
That's baseball though. One-half inch up or down on the barrel of the bat can be the difference between a home run or a pop-up. Didn't Chapman say that one of the adjustments he was trying to make was hitting the ball more towards centre field? The vast majority of parks that's the deepest so he's really got to hit the sweet spot. I agree with you though, he should be trying to pull the ball to left field.
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I'm not denying that's baseball lol. The sport is filled with whacky, flukey, lucky events. It's part of why I love it so much (and hate it at the same damn time).
 
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Kurtz said:
I think we got a couple of breaks. A few friendly calls from the ump and a couple of bad defensive plays from their infielders.
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That ump was having a bad night, he called a ball on Lopez when it was clearly dead red strike, I mean if you had a tube and rolled the ball through the tube, you couldn't make it anymore of a strike.

Plus you missed Bo's f-up at third, base running mistakes are inexcusable, even for our MVP. That would have left the bases loaded, you cant be sloppy and expect to win a series.
 
I know Davis Schneider had a cold spell to end the year but Biggio has a 102 wRC+ against righties this year, the offence is anemic, and they're not making any meaningful changes?

Cool.
 
Hoverhand said:
I know Davis Schneider had a cold spell to end the year but Biggio has a 102 wRC+ against righties this year, the offence is anemic, and they're not making any meaningful changes?

Cool.
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I would dress the moustache today if i was making the decision. You could make an argument that the guy saved the Jays season. He deserves one game and it's not like Biggio has been consistently good the past 2-3 years. He had a good sequence at the end of the season mostly against teams sure to miss or sure to make it.

On another note I really hate the best of 3. I think baseball should think about adding two teams via expansion and make it a 16 playoffs teams league with at least best of 5 in the firs round.

I feel like Texas entered the "we are sure to make the playoffs" mode too soon and it almost cost them. But when they had to win against the Jays at the end of the season they delivered. Wont be an easy team to eliminate.
 
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