GDT: 2023 Trade Deadline

[Captain3rdLine]

People in this thread lol.





To say he's lost his shine is really unfair. And a redraft? It's far too early to even speak in that type of sense. He's 1 of only 21 players to play 20 or more games from that draft to this point. His whopping 3 goals is 16th in his draft class.

I think that people need to pump the brakes on reaching conclusions on a player so quickly when he's clearly been jerked around in his usage this year. Say what you will but he really hasn't gotten a serious shake with the top 6 and that is what his skillset is suited for. Fair or not, it's the truth.

You can think it’s unfair but it’s the truth. And it has less to do with how he’s done so far and more to do with his skating and what could hold him back. At least for me personally. It’s gonna be hard for him excel with his skating. Certainly possible in the right situation but far from a sure thing and if I was a GM I’d see him as more of a gamble than most top prospects. Prospects don’t just get evaluated on how well they do in terms of production. A huge part of it is evaluating their skillsets. Holtz has some nice skills but is terrible skater. Even when I’ve watched him at the AHL level his skating doesn’t look good enough.

And while it’s certainly too early for a redraft he wouldn’t go top 10 and he certainly doesn’t carry the value of a 7th overall pick anymore. And there might be teams out there that don’t even think he carry’s the value of a 1st round pick if they think his skating is too much of an issue.

Lots of high end picks don’t turn out and it’s not usually because they don’t have talent or some good skills. Often times there’s 1 or 2 things that hold them back. That’s a major concern with Holtz especially given the speed of the game these days.

 

[devilsblood]

He’s one of the best players in the league.

I'm whatever on some of these statistical models, so I'm not sure I'd say he's one of the best players in the league(which is kind of vague anyways), but I think it's fair to say he is clearly a good player, a very good goal scorer, and is in his prime. Good size, get's a lot of SOG's. Just seems like a very good fit.

 

[GeNeXt]

He’s one of the best players in the league.

I stated my reasons. I don't like the long-term outlook assuming we're going to ink him for 7/8 years. Are these numbers indictive of future success? It is possible Meier falls closer to the 50th percentile he was just two years ago? I said in my intitial statement I'd be fine with him for a playoff run and somehow making it work on a short-term deal. I don't like it long-term.

 

[TheUnseenHand]

Can Meier keep up with the pace our team plays at?

 

[devilsblood]

The thing about Holtz is that he is an average-slightly above average skater that always looks like a below average skater because his brain can't keep up with the pace of play. I've seen times where Holtz explodes up the ice way faster than you'd expect from him like once every 3 or 4 games, but it rarely happens. Because he can't think the game fast enough, he is constantly slowing himself down to analyze situations and the play on the ice, something that most players kind of just do as they are moving around naturally. I'd basically call him the guy that is always one or two passes behind the rest of the play. It's why whenever he got time up with the Devils, he always just looks lost out there, and its really because he is just lost out there. Can't think the game at a high enough level to play with the big dogs. If his brain could think the game at the level of an average NHL player, he would be in the NHL right now playing next to Jack Hughes, but I honestly don't know if he will ever be able to think the game at a high enough level to achieve that. All the tools in the world but no toolbox.

I've read this before, and maybe it plays into it. But he is very clearly a slow skater. I won't say he's a bad skater in general, but he is slow.

 

[Emperoreddy]

We would never contend for a cup if some of you ran this team

 

[GeNeXt]

Lucic is just a much bigger dude overall than Meier.

Based on height/weight, which is probably off as height is sometimes fudged, Meier's BMI is 28.2 and Lucic is 29.2, Not a huge difference. Both appear to have bigger upper bodies

 

[Captain3rdLine]

I've read this before, and maybe it plays into it. But he is very clearly a slow skater. I won't say he's a bad skater in general, but he is slow.

He’s a slow and bad skater. Awkward and inefficient.

 

[devilsblood]

I personally think Holtz is a good player but a bad fit for our NHL system, we rely way too much on speed and fast transition play.

He'll be an NHL regular somewhere thanks to his shot alone, if you put him on a team that plays a slightly heavier game, setting up in the offensive zone and cycling the puck, I think he's a lock to be a 25-30 goal guy if he's getting powerplay time.

He's never going to be super dynamic, we knew that when we drafted him. At this point I expect his ceiling to be similar to Mike Hoffman, still a useful piece but not a star player.

The league in general is much more reliant on speed and transition then it once was. There is a spectrum, and we are at the fast end of it, but it's more a skating league now then ever.

So could Holtz fair better on a team that likes to cycle? Maybe, but he hasn't shown that's his game either. He's a skilled player without speed.

 

[Richer's Ghost]

While we’re all eyes on Timo Fitz is probably backdoor getting Chychrun or something to bolster the D lol. He loves his D finds.

 

[Devs3cups]

So put a guy who has the worst #'s on the team on the top line because he's a high pick? And pull Bratt off the top unit PP while we are at it.

No, put a player suited to play with talented players for at least a few games to see what you have and to bring out the most/complement his skill set.

As for the PP, I'd have no issue going Holtz on the left side, Nico as the bumper/net front, Bratt on the right side and Dougie & Jack up top.

 

[Richer's Ghost]

Break out the BMI heat maps! Lol

 

[Captain3rdLine]

The thing about Holtz is that he is an average-slightly above average skater that always looks like a below average skater because his brain can't keep up with the pace of play. I've seen times where Holtz explodes up the ice way faster than you'd expect from him like once every 3 or 4 games, but it rarely happens. Because he can't think the game fast enough, he is constantly slowing himself down to analyze situations and the play on the ice, something that most players kind of just do as they are moving around naturally. I'd basically call him the guy that is always one or two passes behind the rest of the play. It's why whenever he got time up with the Devils, he always just looks lost out there, and its really because he is just lost out there. Can't think the game at a high enough level to play with the big dogs. If his brain could think the game at the level of an average NHL player, he would be in the NHL right now playing next to Jack Hughes, but I honestly don't know if he will ever be able to think the game at a high enough level to achieve that. All the tools in the world but no toolbox.

Completely disagree. If there’s anything he’s shown in the NHL to this point it’s high IQ. His skating is terrible and no where near NHL average.

 

[TrufleShufle]

At this point, if no other team is talking extension, no reason to pay extension pricing. Play the season, talk in the summer.

Was he everything we hoped and gelled with the team? Great, lock him up. Kinda lackluster when it comes to keeping up with our guys? low ball/trade. He plays great, gets us a great run and then demands a ransom? Trade to recoup assets, sign Bratt long term and keep going.

At this point, if it's not a sticking point and doesn't screw us out of getting him, it could be smarter just to trade for him and deal with extension down the line honestly.

 

[Better Call Sal]

When does the bone density analysis begin?

 

[Devs3cups]

The thing about Holtz is that he is an average-slightly above average skater that always looks like a below average skater because his brain can't keep up with the pace of play. I've seen times where Holtz explodes up the ice way faster than you'd expect from him like once every 3 or 4 games, but it rarely happens. Because he can't think the game fast enough, he is constantly slowing himself down to analyze situations and the play on the ice, something that most players kind of just do as they are moving around naturally. I'd basically call him the guy that is always one or two passes behind the rest of the play. It's why whenever he got time up with the Devils, he always just looks lost out there, and its really because he is just lost out there. Can't think the game at a high enough level to play with the big dogs. If his brain could think the game at the level of an average NHL player, he would be in the NHL right now playing next to Jack Hughes, but I honestly don't know if he will ever be able to think the game at a high enough level to achieve that. All the tools in the world but no toolbox.

This. The way to develop the way a player thinks the game is to give said player some playing time and getting him used to the speed of the game. You're right, maybe he never figures it out, but you have to at least try and give him more than 30 games with bottom-6 linemates before making conclusions.

 

[devilsblood]

When does the bone density analysis begin?

Actually a good point. Timo has not missed many games in his career.

 

[EnglishDevil]

The league in general is much more reliant on speed and transition then it once was. There is a spectrum, and we are at the fast end of it, but it's more a skating league now then ever.

So could Holtz fair better on a team that likes to cycle? Maybe, but he hasn't shown that's his game either. He's a skilled player without speed.

You're absolutely not wrong, but I don't think Holtz is an atrocious skater or abjectly slow by any means. He's just mediocre, which on a team like ours looks worse than it is. There are definitely still teams and coaches that play a slower, heavier game (to varying degrees of success).

I don't expect Holtz to become a superstar, his game absolutely lacks the speed and dynamism necessary for that. But I think in the right spot he can absolutely become an effective scorer who isn't a complete liability in other areas of the game.

 

[Devs3cups]

lmfao Twitter has jokes today

 

[HBK27]

I will give Eklund credit for breaking the end of the lockout and that’s about it lol

I only found HFBoards because of Eklund - followed him during the 2004-2005 lockout while looking for any bit of good news. Once he started with the BS trade rumors afterwards though...

 

[MasterofGrond]

Completely disagree. If there’s anything he’s shown in the NHL to this point it’s high IQ. His skating is terrible and no where near NHL average.

We watching the same player? His skating is a weak spot, otherwise he'd already be a top 6 NHL guy for us, but it's hardly terrible.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

Holtz is an atrocious skater by all means.

 

[Forge]

I stated my reasons. I don't like the long-term outlook assuming we're going to ink him for 7/8 years. Are these numbers indictive of future success? It is possible Meier falls closer to the 50th percentile he was just two years ago? I said in my intitial statement I'd be fine with him for a playoff run and somehow making it work on a short-term deal. I don't like it long-term.

I don't disagree about not liking the long term outlook. I said that on the main board. I have concerns there. But I don't think he ages like Lucic. I personally just think Lucic really is just a much bigger guy overall, as I said. I don't think you'll see the complete and total nose dive off the cliff.

 

[Blender]

Has anyone done an in-depth analysis of the width of Meier's turns yet?

 

[Captain3rdLine]

We watching the same player? His skating is a weak spot, otherwise he'd already be a top 6 NHL guy for us, but it's hardly terrible.

It is absolutely terrible. Extremely awkward and inefficient. Stride isn’t good but then it’s even worse when he try’s to turn. Bad technique and slow foot speed.