2023 Tank Thread (Mod post Page 60)

[GunnarStahl]

Since it seems the Ducks will likely finish bottom 5 this year, I figured we should have a thread for discussing the implications of where the f***s will finish in the standings. As well as what factors could affect where they finish.

Tonight was interesting as all bottom 5 teams earned 2 points sans the Ducks and the Hawks.

Hey Folks,

Want to clear some of the air here, Tank talk is not an issue, please talk tank to your heart’s content here, totally understand how critical it is for that Future Potential Top pick. The issue is posting in the GDT, like you want the team to lose or make posts that you are angry they are winning or won the game, or bashing the team for not tanking.

The main reason is, to respect your fellow members. The GDT is about discussion of the game on a live basis and then post game discussion and opinions. A lot of fans are not rooting for the team to lose, and everyone has their views and opinions towards tanking, and may not want to discuss tanking in the GDT

If you guys have any concerns, feel free to PM me or another mod, and would be happy to explain more in detail.

Thanks!

Leo

Click to read more...

 

[Leonardo87]

Like Klingberg leaving us hurt our tank?

We've given up less than 40 SOG per game since he left. Don't think it's a coincidence.

 

[FiveHoleTickler]

We've given up less than 40 SOG per game since he left. Don't think it's a coincidence.

It's not as if it was unforeseen either. We talked about how the team looked noticeably better when he was out of the lineup while he was still here. He just really was THAT bad for us.

 

[Leonardo87]

It's not as if it was unforeseen either. We talked about how the team looked noticeably better when he was out of the lineup while he was still here. He just really was THAT bad for us.

Yeah I wish him the best but he was not a good fit here and he really is not good on defense. Playing here it exposed his flaws big time.

Granted he did start to adjust by the 2nd half of the season it was too little too late and his value had already fallen.

 

[LePerilsofPerreault]

I'm a perplexed with your logic. If Leason scores and we win, then it's bad because we won't be getting a better palyer in the draft. But if we win and won't be getting a better prospect in the draft because McTavish or Z scored, then it's okay?

We potentially lose a better player in the draft regardless who scores to help us win.

Getting a top-5 or top-10 pick automatically makes that forward we draft our best forward in our lineup. Will that one forward drastically change Anaheim's outcome next year if we don't improve our defense? No. Is there a #1D in the top-5 like an Owen Power in this draft? No. We are waiting for our defense to come and get established at the NHL level is when we'll take off as a team.

Just my opinion, but I think we've won three lotteries and all three are forwards in Terry, Z, and McTavish. What McTavish has been able to do as a 19/20 year old rookie on a team lacking defense and physicality just makes whatever forward we get in the top-10 this year just icing on the cake. While I'd love to win the lottery and get Bedard, I'll be content with any top-10 pick. Terry was drafted in the 5th round. Z was drafted 9th overall. The scouting community didn't think McTavish was a top-10 pick, but we still took him 3rd overall.

Winning or getting a point by going to OT means the players and system worked despite the lack of talent on the ice. And when there's talent added at talent-void positions, then the team's expectations increase. It's still a team game.

My logic like I said is hoping the young players do well individually for the remainder of this season while also losing. I didn’t say it’s okay or not okay, i’m not the gatekeeper. It’s easier to stomach. Again they should all be trying to win, but I’m cheering for them to lose because it’ll better for the org in like 4 months. I’m very optimistic about players outside the top 4. Some people would like to tank next year also but I am more for development going forward. It’s just interesting that people want them to win. This is the year to lose and we were/are already in that position.

 

[Terry Yake]

yeah, columbus and chicago will for sure finish 32nd and 31st

sharks will likely finish 29th but not going to pencil them in yet. AZ and montreal are the two teams we need to watch closely as they are in closing in on the ducks. unfortunately, the upcoming schedule isn't very favorable for the tank at all. isles on wednesday and then a for sure W against columbus friday. then vancouver, a sorry ass flames team, the jets, and then the blues. we could be looking at 4 wins in 5 games

 

[HunterDuck]

pls

no more pts

 

[Gliff]

Crazy that even after this run we are still only 4 points out of 2nd to last place.

We need a few losses to get back on track.

 

[Frosted Tips]

I'm pretty sure that the key here is that I stopped watching games and went for just highlights a little before the TDL. I might have to take one for the team (or 15) and start watching again. I can sacrifice my soul for the better odds but I will hate my life.

 

[Kalv]

Like Klingberg leaving us hurt our tank?

What is worse for Columbus is that Elvis has four more years on his contract at a cap hit of $5.4 million per year. That is one big ouch.

Obv I'm a bit biased but this past year has been too much for Elvis to deal with. We will see how his contract plays out but this is not a good measuring year for how he plays. Not only for himself but for the whole CBJ... I catched some of their early season games and holly smokes, man that defense and now recently weren't there games with Gudbranson as their #1D?

As someone said, CBJ have all the things going wrong for them in one year, and it's a good year for them to do that

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

Obv I'm a bit biased but this past year has been too much for Elvis to deal with. We will see how his contract plays out but this is not a good measuring year for how he plays. Not only for himself but for the whole CBJ... I catched some of their early season games and holly smokes, man that defense and now recently weren't there games with Gudbranson as their #1D?

As someone said, CBJ have all the things going wrong for them in one year, and it's a good year for them to do that

I mean i feel like we had everything wrong going for us... and were still going to end up 5-8 range.

Arnt we still like worst goal differential by like 20...

smh... this season is a giant bummer on all fronts.

Dont even get to see drysdale grow.... i guess the rest of the season im just hoping
Zegras hitting 70 points
Mctavish hitting 50
and terry hitting 60(missed some games or hed prob be in the 70 point w/ zegras)

Cool for fowler to break his personal best(assuming), and possibly hit 50+ points this year.

Sucks that Jones Comtois and Lundy have kinda had meh seasons. Was hoping comtois would bounce back, and jones would break out.

Lundy seems more like a product of bad line mates on a bad team.

 

[Terry Yake]

I mean i feel like we had everything wrong going for us... and were still going to end up 5-8 range.

Arnt we still like worst goal differential by like 20...

smh... this season is a giant bummer on all fronts.

Dont even get to see drysdale grow.... i guess the rest of the season im just hoping
Zegras hitting 70 points
Mctavish hitting 50
and terry hitting 60(missed some games or hed prob be in the 70 point w/ zegras)

Cool for fowler to break his personal best(assuming), and possibly hit 50+ points this year.

Sucks that Jones Comtois and Lundy have kinda had meh seasons. Was hoping comtois would bounce back, and jones would break out.

Lundy seems more like a product of bad line mates on a bad team.

we were in last a few weeks ago before gibson decided to play like a vezina finalist

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

we were in last a few weeks ago before gibson decided to play like a vezina finalist

I wonder if PV just told Gibson... no one offered enough for you.... if you want to leave your going to have to up your value.

 

[TheGoodShepard1]

So I don’t think Montreal will be earning any points tonight, good lord Colorado is doing illegal things to them

 

[tomd]

It's all about the ping pong balls now.

 

[DavidBL]

Good news is the there is almost triple the chance if a team that doesn't finish last in the league to pick first overall then that worst team.

 

[Hockey Duckie]

We've given up less than 40 SOG per game since he left. Don't think it's a coincidence.

Since Jan 13th. 40 SOG games

Klingberg: 8 out of 15 games​

Kulikov: 10 out of 19 games​

Maybe it's losing both Klingberg and Kulikov that could be the reason why we're under 40 SOGs.

Last six games, SOGs

​

Ducks​	SOG Diff​	Games​	62 - 67​	Without​	Klingerberg &​	Kulikov​
Game​	Date​	​	Opp​	ANA SOG​	Opp SOG​	SOG Diff​
62​	1-Mar​	​	Was​	23​	39​	-16​
63​	3-Mar​	​	Mtl​	33​	28​	5​
64​	7-Mar​	at​	Sea​	22​	31​	-9​
65​	8-Mar​	at​	Van​	22​	34​	-12​
66​	10-Mar​	at​	Cal​	18​	37​	-19​
67​	12-Mar​	​	Nsh​	37​	36​	1​

We're still trending close to 40 SOGs in three out of the six games. The fringe playoff teams are the ones putting up close to 40 SOGs.

​

Ducks​	TDL​	Before and After​	Averages​
Game Set​	SF​	SA​	SD​
43-61​	30.1​	41.4​	-11.3​
62-67​	25.8​	34.2​	-8.3​

For game set 43-61, four teams tagged us for over 50 SOGs: Edmonton (53, blowout loss), Pitt (59, blowout loss)), Fla (55, OTL), and Carolina (53, Win).

It seems like we've cut back on offense by taking fewer chances taken without both Kulikov and Klingberg. Also, it's still a small sample.

Record Comparison Splits ===

​

Ducks​	Record Splits​	TDL​	before & after​	​	​	​
Game Set​	Games​	W​	L​	OTL​	Pts​	Pts %​
43-61​	19​	8​	8​	3​	19​	0.500​
62-67​	6​	2​	1​	3​	7​	0.583​

We were two and a half minutes away from losing in regulation, but we came away with two goals in that span to earn an OT point. Almost a 0.500 Pts % record, which is no different from our previous 19 games with Klingberg and Kulikov. There are a few factors for fewer SOGs, but SOGs aren't necessarily indicative of results. In games we've given up 50+ SOGs, we should be 0-4-0, but we've managed 1-2-1 (3 pts).

Anyhow, in Klingberg's last 9 games, he went 9 pts and +0 rating. In those 9 games, the team went 4-3-2 (11 pts). I have no idea what clicked with Klingberg, but it also clicked for the rest of the team too.

I'm not really concerned about high volume SOG's. I'm more focused on our play on the ice and how close we are in games. We've been winning more games and more games in regulation. We have 12 regulation wins now. We're two away from tying the Sharks and Blackhawks in regulation wins. We're three away from tying Columbus in regulation wins. I didn't think we would have ever reached double digits months ago.

 

[gilfaizon]

We've been playing weak competition since the deadline. No need to claim this to be some sort of defensive turnaround.

 

[rlstine]

This pointless late season run to end up at like 26th was so inevitable too. Felt like everyone here knew this was coming and it might set us back years. Oh well

 

[Reveille1984]

This pointless late season run to end up at like 26th was so inevitable too. Felt like everyone here knew this was coming and it might set us back years. Oh well

I mean yeah, getting Bedard would accelerate the rebuild a little. But our defense needs a lot of help before we can start even being a middle of the road team, let alone contending for anything meaningful. If drafting top 6 instead of top 3 sets us back multiple years, that's more on Verbeek's incompetence than anything the team is doing this year to sabotage the tank.

Michkov might never come to the states, and while Fantilli/Carlsson are great players they aren't "franchise altering" guys like McDavid/Crosby/Bedard. Having one of them on our roster isn't going to stop us from giving up 5 goals a game.

 

[The Midnight Burrito]

I mean yeah, getting Bedard would accelerate the rebuild a little. But our defense needs a lot of help before we can start even being a middle of the road team, let alone contending for anything meaningful. If drafting top 6 instead of top 3 sets us back multiple years, that's more on Verbeek's incompetence than anything the team is doing this year to sabotage the tank.

Bingo.

 

[lwvs84]

One thing to consider is that since the lottery rules were changed (2 years ago), the last place team has won both years. Statistically, that's bound to change. Eventually, the Ducks bad luck has to change too... hopefully this is the year that both coincide.

 

[Leonardo87]

I mean yeah, getting Bedard would accelerate the rebuild a little. But our defense needs a lot of help before we can start even being a middle of the road team, let alone contending for anything meaningful. If drafting top 6 instead of top 3 sets us back multiple years, that's more on Verbeek's incompetence than anything the team is doing this year to sabotage the tank.

Michkov might never come to the states, and while Fantilli/Carlsson are great players they aren't "franchise altering" guys like McDavid/Crosby/Bedard. Having one of them on our roster isn't going to stop us from giving up 5 goals a game.

Underrated post here. We are going to get a very good Top line player in this draft regardless if we draft 2nd or 6th. Bedard is the prize, and we are not winning the lottery, even if we were dead last. I still like the idea of landing Fantilli or Carlsson, and there is some hope there. We‘d have to finish 3rd last and hope not to fall or maybe win the 2nd OA.

We fell to Zegras, Drysdale, and McTavish. So I’m not too concerned to be honest.

 

[Terry Yake]

One thing to consider is that since the lottery rules were changed (2 years ago), the last place team has won both years. Statistically, that's bound to change. Eventually, the Ducks bad luck has to change too... hopefully this is the year that both coincide.

ah yes, the gambler's fallacy

 

[Duck Off]

I'm one of the few who predicted we'd be terrible b/c the numbers dictated that after the TDL last year and we didn't find any defensive D to replace both Lindholm and Manson.

It took a while to figure out our new personnel. And when the coaches figured out all of our new pro additions couldn't play defense, then we changed our strategy that involved more risk taking. We started winning more games, but also losing games with larger goal differential. It's only recently that we've been winning and earning points, but a majority of those wins/points are against other lottery teams. We're still getting our asses handed to us by playoff vying teams. Oh... and that 50 shades of red curse too.

Unfortunately, many lottery teams jettisoned significant talent at this year's TDL. We lost two players that really didn't affect how bad we already were. Anaheim stayed the same after the TDL, which is partly why we look better now even though we're still terrible.

I somewhat agree.

For me, there is some luck (bad or good depends on how you look at it) to finishing at the bottom of the league. For example, Columbus did not commit to the tank going into this year like some are implying. You don't sign the top forward available in free agency with finishing dead last in the league on your agenda. They're in the basement primarily because they've been top 3 in the league in man games lost all season. They embraced the tank at the deadline by shipping out their #1 goalie, who was on an expiring contract, which was smart.

Similar thing can be said for Montreal. They were doing well to start the year but injuries have caught up to them, and now they're just above us in the standings.

San Jose finally realized they needed to retool and they shipped out an expensive player who was going to cost a fortune to re-sign, and traded all their upcoming UFAs.

The reality, IMO, is that we were never likely to finish at the bottom of the league this year unless we ran significant injuries, which we really haven't. Not saying we've not had some, but not like the two teams I mentioned above. For me, I didn't think it was likely we'd be in the bottom 5 at the end of the year going into this season because our rebuild is further along than most, and the West was always going to be far worse than the East.

Did Verbeek do enough to "embrace the tank" at the deadline? Eh, I wish he would have done more. I would have taken anything for Shattenkirk or Grant, but are those two guys the keys to our recent success lately? No. The most frustrating this for me right now is there's no way that Dostal should not be getting more playing time with the season lost.

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

So curiosity, if we end up at the 7/8 pick... is there evd pick er a world where we choose to move down the d pickboard(specially if a guy like Michkov is still there, and we have no interest in him)?

Just looking at the board as we stand

Ducks 1st for Oilers 1st + Preds 1st (+), maybe more depending on Oilers playoffs, and prob a little more from our side.

Gives us a shot at all those middle round forwards, and potentially jump on a dmen we might like.

Or maybe just drop down a little bit via a trade with (10-13 range)
Wings/Sabres/Coyotes and add another early 2nd round pick

Trading down a little if we dont like the board at our pick, and using draft capital to move up with 2nd round picks, could be interesting..