2023 Tank Thread - Die Hard for Bedard

[sandwichbird2023]

Which is why I said realistically they have to move off Girard either now or in the off-season if they take on Miller. My proposal even had an option to be based around Girard which would clear another 5M.

For a team that just won the stanley cup last season and is in their contention window right now, why would they overtly care about having to maneuver cap for the 2026 season? They have 3 more years to win before that comes up. In a cap world theres no such thing as building a dynasty that lasts 5+ years like you could pre-cap. The only way that happens is you get extremely lucky drafting and developing players. If you look at any cup winner they have all followed the model of rebuilding until they had numerous assets, then going all in on their 3-5 year window, then going back into a rebuild. The only teams that has not really done that in the last 20 years is Boston and Tampa Bay. Tampa Bay I don't realy count because they move off most of their roster players when it comes time to pay unless they are franchise level players whereas no other team has been willing to do so until the window has closed. Colorado could do that by tarding guys like Nuke and Lehtonen when they need cap space but it remains to be seen.

If you look at Colorado's whole philosphy, they dont think you need more than an average goalie to win. They are betting on having such a stacked forward and d core that you can bail your average goalie out. As soon as Geo prices himself out, he's gone just like Keumper. They could take on almost any goalie to replace them and they wont be worse off. Geogriev is ass, not even a top 30 goalie IMO and most Rangers fans would agree. Keumper was carried by Colorado and is a bottom 15 NHL starter at best. It wont be hard to replace the goalie they won the cup with and the goalie they have today.

Id say this is where your pessimism is kicking in. Yes cap space has value but what good is that cap space if you have the player you're replacing will cost the same or more unless you downgrade? You saw similar level players to Garland/Boeser getting 4.5M+ for the same term or longer just a few months ago. Ryan Strome got 5M x 4 years, Andreww Copp got 5.625M x 5 years, Trochek got 5.625M x 7, Rickard Rackell got 5M x 6, Evander Kane got 5.125M x 4,
The Canucks themselves signed Ilya Mikeheyev got 4.75M x 4 and he is much much worse than Boeser/Garland.
So what good is the cap space to teams competing if they are going to have to spend the same term and dollars for similar or lesser players? With the cap going up, its going to be lesser and lesser players. The only teams that would value the cap space are rebuilding teams so they can weaponize it to take on bad contracts for assets like a Monahan or Kassian or take on some good players that are cap casualties like Buchnevich or Bjorkstrand or McDonagh at below normal trade market value.

There is no world where Boeser is negative value when he would get an even better contract on the UFA market than he has right now. Its also why NYI fans are 50/50 on giving up Pelech straight up for him.

Same thing with Garland. No way Puljujarvi holds anywhere near the value of Garland. You're seeing 2M in cap savings but 2M in cap savings doesn't replace what you just lost. Puljujarvi is a 40pt player when you play him with McDavid/Draisaitl. Imagine how little he will produce playing in Garland's role here. Probably 10-20 points. Connor Garland is a 50 point player. 2M cap savings won't do anything for anyone. Dube sure maybe because imo he's underultilzed in CGY and I think he could be Garland lite. Even then if you're trading Garland for a guy that is Garland lite and his potential is Garland, cap savings are pointless to do the downgrade unless you need the cap to re-sign your better free agents. Canucks don't have anyone to re-sign in this hypothetical situation. Calgary its a no brainer, they get a Dube at max potential signed to a reasonable long term deal they would end up giving Dube himself if he hits in 2 years.

Re: the Avs. Maybe you are right and Sakic goes all-in for the repeat this year, mortgaging future cap space and flexibility to load up for another run this year. It's possible but unlikely to me. MacKinnon/Makar/Rantanen are still so young, I just don't see their cup window slamming shut on them in the next few years. So far it seems like they are steering clear of the bad long term contracts (ie: letting Kadri/Khumper/Burakovsky go). To me it appears Sakic understands that, while those guys are key to their cup win, they are also older and it's not wise to lock them into long term big contract. If Sakic wanted a highly paid 2nd line center signed to a long term contract, he could've just kept Kadri instead of trading for Miller.

How much did you think Boeser can get as a UFA this past summer? Just curious.

Re: Garland. We just paid a 2nd round pick to dump a net of $1.3m in Dickinson, so I think $2m saving is quite valuable. Do the Flames and Oilers even have cap space to add $2m? Do they have the need for Garland? Wouldn't the Oilers rather spend whatever space they have to boost their D instead of adding another winger? Flames already have good depth on wing and a couple of their top prospects are wingers as well, I'm not seeing a fit there anyways.

 

[Canuck Luck]

Re: the Avs. Maybe you are right and Sakic goes all-in for the repeat this year, mortgaging future cap space and flexibility to load up for another run this year. It's possible but unlikely to me. MacKinnon/Makar/Rantanen are still so young, I just don't see their cup window slamming shut on them in the next few years. So far it seems like they are steering clear of the bad long term contracts (ie: letting Kadri/Khumper/Burakovsky go). To me it appears Sakic understands that, while those guys are key to their cup win, they are also older and it's not wise to lock them into long term big contract. If Sakic wanted a highly paid 2nd line center signed to a long term contract, he could've just kept Kadri instead of trading for Miller.

How much did you think Boeser can get as a UFA this past summer? Just curious.

Re: Garland. We just paid a 2nd round pick to dump a net of $1.3m in Dickinson, so I think $2m saving is quite valuable. Do the Flames and Oilers even have cap space to add $2m? Do they have the need for Garland? Wouldn't the Oilers rather spend whatever space they have to boost their D instead of adding another winger? Flames already have good depth on wing and a couple of their top prospects are wingers as well, I'm not seeing a fit there anyways.

By the time its 2025, the cap is projected to be 10M higher at 92M. Bthat point Miller will be almost halfway through his deal, likely making a lot less compared to other 2C around the league. Most 2C are already making 5-9M in a 83M cap world. The ones that are close to or better than Miller all already make 7-9M. with the cap being 10M higher by then, 2C below Miller's level will probably be making 8M. I don't see it as mortgaging the future when the player is signed to a resonable market cap hit today and over time if he keeps it up will be well below market value when cap space may become an issue. At that point you can look to move off him or another player if you need cap.

I think Boeser could have gotten at the very least the same cap hit x the max 7 years. The Canucks were not the ones lowering the term on the contract, it was Boeser.

We paid that because the player (Dickinson) had completely played his way off the roster. We were about to have 2.65M tied to the pressbox meanwhile having cap issues. Thats a completely different than downgrading from a 50 point Garland to a 20 point Puljujarvi just to save 2M when you wont use the cap for anything. You only do that if you are in dire need of cap space ala Tampa Bay or Vegas yearly where you have to downgrade your roster to become cap compliant.

 

[SeawaterOnIce]

 

[oceanchild]

This team is a Demko or Hughes injury away from having a real shot at 1OA. Outside of that, the back end is just not good enough, and no easy solutions exist. They have to take a step back and make some hard decisions. It’s to early to make that type of call, but if we tank the first half again this year…. You have to blow it up.

 

[valkynax]

This year's tank is so stronk so far.

So very very stronk.

 

[Ruthervin]

I don't want Team Tank............I would want Team Titanic for 1.5-2 months IF........:

I've said this before and I'll say this again:

I will only be on board Team Tank IF............this management decides to fully commit to an actual full tank explosion of a blow up. What do I mean by this? Literally go hard after Bedard:

Bye to the following players for elite picks and prospects:
-Hughes
-Demko
-Pettersson
-Horvat
-Miller
-Garland
-Mikheyev
-Kuzmenko

We literally trade all of the above players for elite prospects and picks. So for example, maybe Hughes to NJ gets you Nemac++. Maybe Pettersson to Florida gets you Lundell+. And so forth. We also take on albatross contracts (2 years is fine - nothing 3 years or more) with draft picks attached to them.

"Why move guys like Petey, Hughes, and Demko" you might ask? Because.......

1) If we go full rebuild, Petey would probably pull a Matt Tkachuk in two years time.
2) With guys like Hughes, Demko, Horvat, etc., by the time we got good again, these guys' contracts would either be close to expiring (Hughes/Demko), or, they will have aged out (Horvat, Miller, etc.)

3) The presence of our current core players (Petey, Hughes, etc.) would prevent us from landing elite prospects and picks, while also preventing us from falling far enough to realistically land Bedard.

So that's my view:

If Team Tank is only about moving Horvat, Garland, and Miller however (or other vets), then I want nothing to do with Team Tank. Give me Team Titanic if we choose to go down this path. And IF we go down this path, do it at the trade deadline. Vancouver is a very fickle market. If you start blowing it up too soon, people will stop coming to the games (think - 1998 - 13,000 fans coming to GM place on average). If you go down this path, sell EVERYONE at the trade deadline, or in the weeks leading up to it.

Trade deadline = sellers market. Fans barely showing up the last 1.5 months of the season won't hurt this team too much financially (relatively speaking).

 

[me2]

Well the boys are sh#tting the bed hard for Bedard

 

[lawrence]

Bedard watching the Canucks.

 

[sandwichbird2023]

By the time its 2025, the cap is projected to be 10M higher at 92M. Bthat point Miller will be almost halfway through his deal, likely making a lot less compared to other 2C around the league. Most 2C are already making 5-9M in a 83M cap world. The ones that are close to or better than Miller all already make 7-9M. with the cap being 10M higher by then, 2C below Miller's level will probably be making 8M. I don't see it as mortgaging the future when the player is signed to a resonable market cap hit today and over time if he keeps it up will be well below market value when cap space may become an issue. At that point you can look to move off him or another player if you need cap.

I think Boeser could have gotten at the very least the same cap hit x the max 7 years. The Canucks were not the ones lowering the term on the contract, it was Boeser.

We paid that because the player (Dickinson) had completely played his way off the roster. We were about to have 2.65M tied to the pressbox meanwhile having cap issues. Thats a completely different than downgrading from a 50 point Garland to a 20 point Puljujarvi just to save 2M when you wont use the cap for anything. You only do that if you are in dire need of cap space ala Tampa Bay or Vegas yearly where you have to downgrade your roster to become cap compliant.

If the Avs really want to go for it, there are other 2C options out there that doesn't require a 7 years commitment. In case it doesn't work out for some reason, that is a heck of an anchor for a cup contender to take on. Rumor is they might just move Rantanen to 2C, trade for Kane and cruise their way to another cup, while having the cap flexibility to do more rentals next season. They have so many options I just can't see them taking the JTM route.

Anyways I guess we'll just have to agree to disagree. I respect your opinion and I truly hope you are correct and we can get some positive trade value out of our vets, because that would definitely accelerate the rebuild (if the management do go down that path, but I'm thinking they will double down with a Horvat extension and we'll have this core for 7 more years).

 

[Canuck Luck]

If the Avs really want to go for it, there are other 2C options out there that doesn't require a 7 years commitment. In case it doesn't work out for some reason, that is a heck of an anchor for a cup contender to take on. Rumor is they might just move Rantanen to 2C, trade for Kane and cruise their way to another cup, while having the cap flexibility to do more rentals next season. They have so many options I just can't see them taking the JTM route.

Anyways I guess we'll just have to agree to disagree. I respect your opinion and I truly hope you are correct and we can get some positive trade value out of our vets, because that would definitely accelerate the rebuild (if the management do go down that path, but I'm thinking they will double down with a Horvat extension and we'll have this core for 7 more years).

They could go that route of getting a rental instead either Patty Kane and moving Rantanen down to 2C or getting a 2C like Bo. I don't think Miller is out of the realm of possibilty if the Canucks were willing.

I respect yours as well, I'd say if the Canucks were in a dire position for cap like TB when they deal off players or like how teams sign a UFA and then deal roster player to make the cap work. Canucks aren't in that position so they are better off holding onto the players if they arent at least getting 50 cents on the dollar.

 

[Ruthervin]

What would the following players land you at the trade deadline?

This post isn't about IF we should trade the following players at the trade deadline (endless semantical debate), but rather, WHAT do you think these guys could return at the trade deadline if Rutherford/Alvin decided to completely and utterly blow things up in a full scale rebuild?

-Pettersson
-Hughes
-Demko
-Horvat
-Kuzmenko
-Miller
-Mikheyev
-Garland
-Boeser (might be negative value at this point)
-Myers (in answering this question, keep in mind what Columbus paid for Gudbranson)

 

[Cancuks]

What would the following players land you at the trade deadline?

This post isn't about IF we should trade the following players at the trade deadline (endless semantical debate), but rather, WHAT do you think these guys could return at the trade deadline if Rutherford/Alvin decided to completely and utterly blow things up in a full scale rebuild?

-Pettersson
-Hughes
-Demko
-Horvat
-Kuzmenko
-Miller
-Mikheyev
-Garland
-Boeser (might be negative value at this point)
-Myers (in answering this question, keep in mind what Columbus paid for Gudbranson)

Pettersson: Top 10 pick + top center prospect.
Hughes: Top 10 pick + top prospect like Nemec/Clarke.
Demko: Mid 1st + top goalie prospect like Devon Levi
Horvat: Late 1st + 2nd + B center prospect
Kuzmenko: 2nd possibly late 1st depending on his season.
Miller: Untradeable unless big cap player coming back like Benn/Voracek/Hayes/Wheeler
Mikheyev: Untradeable unless an equally big contract is coming back. Gudbranson?
Garland: 2nd. 1st if you take back salary.
Boeser: Needs to be traded for another big contract like Bailey/Palmieri to have any value
Myers: 3rd but if 50% retained then 2nd + 3rd

 

[Ruthervin]

Pettersson: Top 10 pick + top center prospect.
Hughes: Top 10 pick + top prospect like Nemec/Clarke.
Demko: Mid 1st + top goalie prospect like Devon Levi
Horvat: Late 1st + 2nd + B center prospect
Kuzmenko: 2nd possibly late 1st depending on his season.
Miller: Untradeable unless big cap player coming back like Benn/Voracek/Hayes/Wheeler
Mikheyev: Untradeable unless an equally big contract is coming back. Gudbranson?
Garland: 2nd. 1st if you take back salary.
Boeser: Needs to be traded for another big contract like Bailey/Palmieri to have any value
Myers: 3rd but if 50% retained then 2nd + 3rd

Good posts and I think your valuations are spot-on. If the Canucks were to underachieve this season and Management decided to blow it up at the deadline, I think the above would be realistic packages/values and our farm and prospect pool would be quite ripe........and we'd be in the sweepstakes for Bedard or some other elite picks in the draft. In a weird sort of way, I could actually see UFA's being interested in signing with us in the Summer (especially if we won the Bedard sweep stakes) because we would be seen as a team with a massive long term future......possibly in the real of being the next Pittsburgh/Washington/Boston.

 

[PuckMunchkin]

Miller: Untradeable unless big cap player coming back like Benn

Pettersson: Top 10 pick + top center prospect.
Hughes: Top 10 pick + top prospect like Nemec/Clarke.
Demko: Mid 1st + top goalie prospect like Devon Levi
Horvat: Late 1st + 2nd + B center prospect
Kuzmenko: 2nd possibly late 1st depending on his season.
Miller: Untradeable unless big cap player coming back like Benn/Voracek/Hayes/Wheeler
Mikheyev: Untradeable unless an equally big contract is coming back. Gudbranson?
Garland: 2nd. 1st if you take back salary.
Boeser: Needs to be traded for another big contract like Bailey/Palmieri to have any value
Myers: 3rd but if 50% retained then 2nd + 3rd

Hmm. Would Dallas do this while paying us some serious futures in this deal?

Benn's contract is pretty buyout friendly after next season.

I would not look to trade Garland, Boeser or Mikheyev at this point. Let them restore value or keep them around for now.

Even considering trading Petey and Hughes makes me kinda puke in my mouth.

 

[nameless1]

The whole franchise is just dumb.
Last year was the perfect opportunity to embrace a full tank...
Because everyone knew Benning had to go...
But the team had to go with another "re-tool" phase.
At this point...
I just want the owners to sell the team...
Because the Aquilinis will not just bite the bullet...
And tear it all down.

Plus...
With the Canucks "luck"...
There is no guarantee the Canucks will get the 1st overall pick...
Even if the team went 0-82.

Whatever.
The fate of franchises always comes in cycles...
And this is just the darkest timeline for the team right now.
It will pass...
Eventually...
But with the current ownership group and management...
The suffering will just be long.

 

[Just A Bit Outside]

Gimme Fantilli.

Please and thank you

 

[TruGr1t]

So let’s get real here. If it gets bad enough, any chance they actually start selling guys off and looking at Bedard?

 

[Kryten]

 

[LickTheEnvelope]

So let’s get real here. If it gets bad enough, any chance they actually start selling guys off and looking at Bedard?

That's what they should do. Even if it's not Bedard this is a very good draft with a number of amazing prospects at the top.

Unfortunately they think they are a playoff team.

 

[valkynax]

You mother f***ers want some of this? DO YOU?!!???

 

[SeawaterOnIce]

So let’s get real here. If it gets bad enough, any chance they actually start selling guys off and looking at Bedard?

I think selling these assholes may actually improve our team. Just make no changes and hope the toxic shit leads to a historically bad season.

 

[BenningHurtsMySoul]

Bedard - 21 points in 12 games (WHL
Fantilli - 15 points in 6 games (NCAA)
Carlsson - 10 points in 12 games (SEL)

This is the year to tank

 

[mriswith]

So let’s get real here. If it gets bad enough, any chance they actually start selling guys off and looking at Bedard?

Even if they want to, it's too hard to build a market in this short of time for that many players. Doubly so because everyone we need to sell has term except Horvat.

It needed to be done last year before the trade deadline and before giving Miller an extension to give themselves a year of runway.

My worst case Boeser scenario was giving him his QO and then retaining half and selling him at the deadline, then if Miller has no contract you have 3 expiring contracts that should be easy to sell as rentals instead of what they've got now.

They can make 1 major trade, maybe two by the deadline if we're really lucky, but unless Hughes is out long term we need way more than that to be talking Bedard.

 

[Brock Boeser Laser Show]

Need to just turf the season and at least give ourselves a shot at Bedard or fantilli

Bedard - 21 points in 12 games (WHL
Fantilli - 15 points in 6 games (NCAA)
Carlsson - 10 points in 12 games (SEL)

This is the year to tank

This draft is deep with potential #1 centers. Sucks there isn't too many defenseman at the top of this draft but it doesn't matter when you need everything.

Hopefully 2024 has some stud defenseman available.

 

[Cancuks]

Trading Horvat and Kuzmenko should get us a 1st, 2nd, and 3rd round pick in this draft at minimum. It's not great but it's a step in the right direction.