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2023 NHL Entry Draft

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WinterLion said:
This is exactly what I think... if he's not gone then he will probably slip quite far down because the only reason you don't take a talent like that is for the other risk factors.
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Yeah. I think so, too. And if there is that feeling among GMs that he is a risk, it would make sense for a team somewhere from 10 - 15 to take that risk.
 
Banjo Cat said:
I really don't know whether or not the risk for Michkov is too great or not. I've read the arguments from both sides, and there are good points either way. But assuming that risk is low, I have to think that (unless we move up in the draft) another team will probably be willing to take him before us.
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I hope so, it would save us a lot of hassle.
 
WeThreeKings said:
It would cost Michkov 600k himself to buy his contract out.

He's not doing that.
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They could arrange a sponsorship for him that would immediately make up for that and then some as soon as he crosses the pond.

Not directly from Molson, mind you, but it can't be that hard.
 
Playmaker09 said:
They could arrange a sponsorship for him that would immediately make up for that and then some as soon as he crosses the pond.

Not directly from Molson, mind you, but it can't be that hard.
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If we draft him, you get a local company to sponsor him for 600k from day one, you'd hVe dozens willing to do it
 
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Here is where I am right now but admittingly I don't watch a lot of games. I do however spent much of my free time reading, watching highlights and listening to podcasts about propsoects from all the fine people that do all the watching for me.

The usual top 4 - even though a concensus cluster forms at the top every year...rarely do they end up being the best.

1. Bedard
2. Fantilli
3. Michkov
4. Carlsson

5. Smith - his vision and creativity if off the charts but I heard a couple guys compare him to Drouin at the same age and that has poisoned me. He is still here based on his incredible skill
6. Moore - he is the most underrated guy IMO. A toolsy centre that is not easy to find
7. Leonard - love this guys compete. A bigger and more talented Lehkonen for sure.
8. Reinbacher - keeps showing he can be a stud. This ranking however is partly based on need.
9. Dvorsky - solid, safe pick
10. Perreault - not sure why this guys is so low on so many lists- he shines whenever I see him.
11. Benson - I know the scoring ability and compete is there, but just don't love this guy as much
12. ASP - can you imagine Hutson and ASP on the same PP unit? Not sure a team can have 2 small offensive d though.
13. Barlow - he also seems underrated in these parts. His shot, size etc will do him well in the NHL
14. Wood - His size certainly helps but has sneaky good patience.
15. Ritchie - A surefire reliable centre in the NHL - a safe pick per se
16. Stenberg - he reminds me a bit of Koivu - could be a steal later in round.
17. Danielson - big reliable centre
18. Musty - big guy with skills - sign me up
19. Yager - has talent but I just am not enamoured with him.
20. Gulyayev - I think is better than most realize; just doesn't get much exposure cause of where he is.
21. Simashev - moving up rankings, similar to Gulyayev
21. But - huge and talented - again Russian factor here.
22. Heidt - every team needs a bit of a pest with skills
23. Willander - showed how good he is a WC - he will move up rankings
24. Sale - he should be higher based on talent but he is a passenger too often.
25. Honzek - Nothing fancy but fits the typical 3rd line NHLer
26 Brindley - has some great compete.
27. Cristall - top 10 skils but not sure the rest is NHL calibre; worth a shot here in draft
28. Strbak - a big RHD from Slovakia - yeah that has Habs written all over it.
29. Gauthier - an NHLer for sure, just not a fancy one.
30. Bonk - defensive RHD with NHL pedigree
31. Hrabel - dunno much about goalies but we need one
32. Bjarnason - ditto

HM Lind - I like some crazy
 
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What if, hear me out here: we fall to 7th and draft Reinbacher, and then move up to 13 to grab a falling Michkov. Is that the best case scenario? Is that too far-fetched?
 
MrNasty said:
Here is where I am right now but admittingly I don't watch a lot of games. I do however spent much of my free time reading, watching highlights and listening to podcasts about propsoects from all the fine people that do all the watching for me.

The usual top 4 - even though a concensus cluster forms at the top every year...rarely do they end up being the best.

1. Bedard
2. Fantilli
3. Michkov
4. Carlsson

5. Smith - his vision and creativity if off the charts but I heard a couple guys compare him to Drouin at the same age and that has poisoned me. He is still here based on his incredible skill
6. Moore - he is the most underrated guy IMO. A toolsy centre that is not easy to find
7. Leonard - love this guys compete. A bigger and more talented Lehkonen for sure.
8. Reinbacher - keeps showing he can be a stud. This ranking however is partly based on need.
9. Dvorsky - solid, safe pick
10. Perreault - not sure why this guys is so low on so many lists- he shines whenever I see him.
11. Benson - I know the scoring ability and compete is there, but just don't love this guy as much
12. ASP - can you imagine Hutson and ASP on the same PP unit? Not sure a team can have 2 small offensive d though.
13. Barlow - he also seems underrated in these parts. His shot, size etc will do him well in the NHL
14. Wood - His size certainly helps but has sneaky good patience.
15. Ritchie - A surefire reliable centre in the NHL - a safe pick per se
16. Stenberg - he reminds me a bit of Koivu - could be a steal later in round.
17. Danielson - big reliable centre
18. Musty - big guy with skills - sign me up
19. Yager - has talent but I just am not enamoured with him.
20. Gulyayev - I think is better than most realize; just doesn't get much exposure cause of where he is.
21. Simashev - moving up rankings, similar to Gulyayev
21. But - huge and talented - again Russian factor here.
22. Heidt - every team needs a bit of a pest with skills
23. Willander - showed how good he is a WC - he will move up rankings
24. Sale - he should be higher based on talent but he is a passenger too often.
25. Honzek - Nothing fancy but fits the typical 3rd line NHLer
26 Brindley - has some great compete.
27. Cristall - top 10 skils but not sure the rest is NHL calibre; worth a shot here in draft
28. Strbak - a big RHD from Slovakia - yeah that has Habs written all over it.
29. Gauthier - an NHLer for sure, just not a fancy one.
30. Bonk - defensive RHD with NHL pedigree
31. Hrabel - dunno much about goalies but we need one
32. Bjarnason - ditto

HM Lind - I like some crazy
Click to expand...
Great list! Thanks for sharing!
 
Playmaker09 said:
They could arrange a sponsorship for him that would immediately make up for that and then some as soon as he crosses the pond.

Not directly from Molson, mind you, but it can't be that hard.
Click to expand...
That isn’t legal or else the richest teams in the biggest cities would do that with all of the UFAs.
 
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TheDogCerby said:
Anyone know how the payment works to buyout your contract in Russia? If, let's say Michkov was making 1 mill each season, would it take that equivalent to do so ?

Also, Canes tried to buy out Nikishin's contract. It became public knowledge and nothing was done about it.
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TheDogCerby said:
Just saw it would cost approximately 600k us to buy Michkov out.
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WeThreeKings said:
It would cost Michkov 600k himself to buy his contract out.

He's not doing that.
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Warning, long winded post. TLDR: Michkov's buy-out may be $250k-$583k, depending on when he buys it out. It's likely it makes more financial sense for him to buy it out as soon as possible rather than wait.

From my digging the $600k is at today's exchange rate if he buys out the rest of the contract from the end of this season.

When I first made my post speculating about his contract status I couldn't find a breakdown of compensation. This time around I found a breakdown of his contract provided by a long-time hockey reporter at Championat.com. I don't know of the legitimacy of them as a news source, but from looking at the website rankings it apparently has the second largest market share of online sports news in Russia.

The breakdown is provided in this article. His KHL salary, expressed in rubles, is broken down as follows:

2021-22: ₽5 million
2022-23: ₽10 million
2023-24: ₽15 million
2024-25: ₽25 million
2025-26: ₽30 million

Unfortunately the details of contract buy-outs from the KHL are scarce. However, when Radulov left the KHL to re-join Nashville, it was reported by then KHL-president Alexander Medvedev that a player must pay 2/3s of the remaining contract.

So the breakdown of buy-out values, based on the above two sources would be:

Before 2023-24 season: ₽46.6 million
Before 2024-25 season: ₽36.6 million
Before 2025-26 season: ₽20.0 million

Exchange rate is volatile right now between rubles and USD, but I'll use todays rate of 1 USD = 80 rubles for simplicity sake. That makes the value of a buy-out the following:

Before 2023-24 season: $583k
Before 2024-25 season: $485k
Before 2025-26 season: $250k

Using Slafkovsky's ELC as a proxy, he could expect the annual compensation breakdown:

Annual base salary: $855,000
Annual signing bonuses: $95,000
Annual performance bonuses: $3,500,000

I did some simple calcs based on this to estimate his cashflow pre-2026 based on a buy-out each year. I ignored performance bonuses because it's got a massive varying outcome of possibilities, though based on his pedigree I guessed he'd probably hit his schedule A bonuses giving him an extra million annually. I kept his KHL salary until he bought out in the scenarios below. Didn't account for things like taxes and escrow. His total earnings, pre-2026 for each scenario are:

Earnings 2023 buy-out scenario: $2.27 million
Earnings 2024 buy-out scenario: $1.63 million
Earnings 2025 buy-out scenario: $1.01 million

The thing that jumps out to me is that his earnings before 2026 drops every year he stays in the KHL. Or in otherwards, he's actually financially incentivized to buy out his contract as fast as possible. This stance is only further enhanced when you add in ELC performance bonuses, and consider that the faster he can burn his ELC, the faster he will get to his first large NHL contract.
 
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badfish said:
Warning, long winded post. TLDR: Michkov's buy-out may be $250k-$583k, depending on when he buys it out. It's likely it makes more financial sense for him to buy it out as soon as possible rather than wait.

From my digging the $600k is at today's exchange rate if he buys out the rest of the contract from the end of this season.

When I first made my post speculating about his contract status I couldn't find a breakdown of compensation. This time around I found a breakdown of his contract provided by a long-time hockey reporter at Championat.com. I don't know of the legitimacy of them as a news source, but from looking at the website rankings it apparently has the second largest market share of online sports news in Russia.

The breakdown is provided in this article. His KHL salary, expressed in rubles, is broken down as follows:

2021-22: ₽5 million
2022-23: ₽10 million
2023-24: ₽15 million
2024-25: ₽25 million
2025-26: ₽30 million

Unfortunately the details of contract buy-outs from the KHL are scarce. However, when Radulov left the KHL to re-join Nashville, it was reported by then KHL-president Alexander Medvedev that a player must pay 2/3s of the remaining contract.

So the breakdown of buy-out values, based on the above two sources would be:

Before 2023-24 season: ₽46.6 million
Before 2024-25 season: ₽36.6 million
Before 2025-26 season: ₽20.0 million

Exchange rate is volatile right now between rubles and USD, but I'll use todays rate of 1 USD = 80 rubles for simplicity sake. That makes the value of a buy-out the following:

Before 2023-24 season: $583k
Before 2024-25 season: $485k
Before 2025-26 season: $250k

Using Slafkovsky's ELC as a proxy, he could expect the annual compensation breakdown:

Annual base salary: $855,000
Annual signing bonuses: $95,000
Annual performance bonuses: $3,500,000

I did some simple calcs based on this to estimate his cashflow pre-2026 based on a buy-out each year. I ignored performance bonuses because it's got a massive varying outcome of possibilities, though based on his pedigree I guessed he'd probably hit his schedule A bonuses giving him an extra million annually. I kept his KHL salary until he bought out in the scenarios below. Didn't account for things like taxes and escrow.

Buy-out 2023: $2.27 million
Buy-out 2024: $1.63 million
Buy-out 2025: $1.01 million

The thing that jumps out to me is that his earnings before 2026 drops every year he stays in the KHL. Or in otherwards, he's actually financially incentivized to buy out his contract as fast as possible. This stance is only further enhanced when you add in ELC performance bonuses, and consider that the faster he can burn his ELC, the faster he will get to his first large NHL contract.
Click to expand...
That's some great digging.
 
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Vachon23 said:
So we need to put a player out of the conversation because he wasn't at the U18 ??

U18 is a 10 days tournament, on an international ice/rules with and only 4-5 teams that are competitive that you only face in semi final and in final. It's a cool tournament since you can see a lot of prospect tougher but It need to be a little piece of your evaluation. How the player played with his team all season long is way more important then how he played at the U18
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Not worried that he wasn't at the U18 in the slightest. I just think the separation between the top 7 and Reinbacher looks wider after the U18s.

Really, there's nothing particularly special about him as a D. He gets way overrated in this thread.
 
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