The more games I watch, the more I realize this draft only possesses 5 truly elite talents (the unanimous top 4 + Benson). That's why this team must absolutely finish bottom 5 and ideally bottom 4 (8 pts behind ANA) to secure one of them. After those 5, there's like a group of 8-10 players who could all go 6th OA and we're not talking about players with elite potential imo.
Smith : Elite hands and can make superb plays from the point on the PP, but his skating is terrible (and so is his mechanic, which means he won't get much faster nor agile in the NHL) and his defensive play is non-existent most of the time (and its not like he's trying either). But what really bugs me is his effort level, I dont think Ive seen him win more than 1 board battle a game in the games Ive watched (and that's when he actually try to battle for the puck). I don't get why for some people, he's a clear top 6 guy. Id be hesitant to take him in the top 10 as we speak.
Moore : I like him more than Smith. Skating is elite and he works hard, but it's hard to imagine him becoming more than a 55-60pts 2-3 defensive C who's solid at zone exit/entry. He simply doesn't have the offensive skills (passing skills and shot) needed to be a 60+pts guy. I see both Smith and Moore as a halves of Logan Cooley as the later's got the hands of Smith while also having Moore's skating and intensity.
Leonard : He's the guy I like the most from the USNTDP. Skating, puck skills and defensive games are all solid + his shot is an absolute rocket (and he can use it in so many ways) and he's probably the guy who works the hardest in this draft alongside Benson imo. If we miss on the top 5, which I hope we don't, he's the guy Id like (as of now). We're talking about a 60pts 5'11'' power forward who's great at everything but not dynamic enough to be in the same conversation as Benson imo.
Reinbacher : I like him and I do believe he's got number second pairing Dmen written all over him, but as it's the case with many draft specialists, he doesn't display enough puck skills/offensive instinct to become the guy who'll play next to Guhle for the next 10 years. And honestly, I don't see why we should go for a D this year. We already have 4 young Dmen who are all absolute NHLer + Matheson who might be a 40+ pts dmen for the next 3 seasons + Hutson (I think he'll be a top 10 dmen one day), Mailloux (elite offense, poor hockey IQ, hard to say what he'll be, could play PP1 right away next season or spend two seasons in the A) and Engstrom (what a surprise he's been). That's 7 young players + Matheson (who might pull a Petry and be really good until his mid 30s).
Dvorsky : Poor skater, but really great hands + an elite shot to go along with a really mature defensive game, but as impressive as are his stats in the U20 and as hard as it is for a teen to play in a men's league (Allsv.), he just doesn't look that great. There's some flashes here and there, and he does a really great job on the half-wall on the PP, but other than that he's mostly invisible. Unfortunately, as of now, he just screams project to me with a greater chance than not of becoming a 3C (45-50pts) and we already have Beck for that imo (and taking that kind of player at that rank would be so meh).
Then there's the Barlow, Danielson, Yager and Sale, but honestly, I dont think any of them are really worth it in the top 7.
So, let's pray Farrell scores 10+pts and that Dach, Zuke and cie keeps on producing for the rest of the year, but that we lose all of our remaining games apart from the one against FLA.
Ending with a middle of the lineup player after the season we've had would be absolutely terrible.
I agree with the essence of your post that there is no elite talents after the top 4, well you have Benson as one, personally Im not denying his talent level, just think the size/skating might limit his upside a bit at the NHL level. For me the drop is after 4 and I agree that you have a tier of 8-10 players that could be picked in different orders depending teams preferences or needs.
On Reinbacher, I disagree with your projection. For me this kid totally possesses the tools to be a solid top pairing defenseman, he is defensively rock solid, has excellent mobility, gap control and physicality to his game in the same mold as Jiricek, he is quick to close gap and will crush his opponents as soon as he has a chance to, his bodychecks are clean and dissuasive, has a long reach, very good stick work, sound positionning and a very high defending IQ. On the offensive side, kid is great in transition, his passing skills are fluid, sharp, accurate and his skating allows him to carry the puck up ice at times too. He is a good puckhandler who usually takes the good dicisions in all 3 zones. He can support the offense and quit his position to jump in the play when its worth it too and does it smartly, but wont take useless risks, he usually is a stable presence on the back end. I like his shooting skills, its not elite at that point, but still way above average and should get even better as he gains more strength. Does he have the tools to be a #1 PP quarterback? I think so, in the same mold as a Hedman, Dobson, but even if he ends up on your 2nd PP wave, Is it that bad? I mean, we have a Lane Hutson to fill that role anyway... Funny that you bring Guhle to the conversation since I watched him alot in junior and Reinbacher is just as good at defending and flashes much better offensive instincts. I have Reinbacher as the clear #1 of that 2nd tier and easily the most logical option for the Habs.
On Dvorsky, I disagree with labelling him a bad skater, thats not quite pro level ready, but thats quite fine by comparison to most top prospects in the draft.
On Smith, his foot speed, startups needs a bit of work, but kid can reach good top speed once he gets going. I think its more of a motor and strength issue since he is pretty weak on pucks. What frustrates me the most with Smith is that he actives only on the offensive side of the game when his team has a chance to counter attack, you will see him come alive, but when his team loses possession, his game away from the puck is flawed and wont get his nose dirty to retrieve possession, not combative enough, poor physical involment I would say in the same mold as Wright last year. Offensively he is one of the most creative players in the draft, great vision, playmaking, puckhandling and offensive awarenesses, but has a tendency to slow the pace down too much, what wont work at the pro level.
On Moore, kid can really snipe, I think you are underrating his wrister big time, I could post several videos where he displays a fantastic release and beat goaltenders cleanly, its a matter to get in position to fire it more often.
Agree on Leonard on all points, I have him ranked pretty high as well. I like both Leonard and Moore alot, but Leonard has the edge.