2023 NHL Entry Draft

[morhilane]

We need.. big, fast, skilled.. probably undervalued being in the BCHL.

Going to the NCAA next season hence the BCHL this year. The few public scouting agency who ranked him have him in the 2nd-3rd round.

 

[Pompeius Magnus]

Going to the NCAA next season hence the BCHL this year. The few public scouting agency who ranked him have him in the 2nd-3rd round.

You could say he's under the Aydar

 

[waitin425]

My top 10 draft list as of today....

Tier 1
1. Bedard
2. Michkov

Tier 2
3. Fantilli
4. Carlsson

Tier 3
5. Benson
6. Smith
7. Dvorsky
8. Yager
9. Sale
10. Reinbacher

I think there is a clear difference between each tier. Tier 3 could include others, but this is how I have it at this point. You could also mix that order up for all I care.

Michkov is not far off Bedard, and I wish we could have seen him in the WJHC to have a better understanding of his skill.

 

[KevSkillz4]

My top 10 draft list as of today....

Tier 1
1. Bedard
2. Michkov

Tier 2
3. Fantilli
4. Carlsson

Tier 3
5. Benson
6. Smith
7. Dvorsky
8. Yager
9. Sale
10. Reinbacher

I think there is a clear difference between each tier. Tier 3 could include others, but this is how I have it at this point. You could also mix that order up for all I care.

Michkov is not far off Bedard, and I wish we could have seen him in the WJHC to have a better understanding of his skill.

Tier 3 looks pretty solid even with clear difference with top 4 tier. But I think if Habs can grab Benson or Smith, that would be a very good consolation prize if we don't win top 2 pick in lottery draft.

I would put Moore and Leonard easily on tier 3, they have high offensive potential at NHL level, they are not far away to a player like Smith, they are very very solid. Danielson is a wildcard on that tier aswell.

I'm a big fan of Yager, Dvorsky and Reinbacher, if Habs pick between 7-9... I would easily consider them.

Sale, Cristall, Musty, Honzek, Wood, Barlow, Heidt, Perreault and Ritchie can all become great target for Florida pick.

 

[JT3]

Posted this in the Race for Bedard thread but probably belongs here..

Is Jarvis comparable to Benson in terms of potential for a undersized forward?
* Who do we draft if Bedard, Fantilli, Carlsson, Michkov, and Smith are off the board at 6th pick?
* Would you trade down to 12-15 range to get Reinbacher?
* What addition futures do we get from trading 6 for a pick in the 12-15 range? 2nd rounder and more?
* Don't hate Benson but I do hate the idea of adding Benson on top of Caufield, Farrell, Hutson.

- Benson or Reinbacher, probably
- Reinbacher will not be available in that range
- Not worth trading down from 6

I think Benson is a much better all around player than Jarvis personally. He does more, and he does it all better imo. Jarvis might be quicker but that's about it. I'm not concerned about adding him to Caufield/Farrell. Take the talent and figure the rest out later.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Yes theyre both comparable. I think Benson is more creative.

Reinbacher or Benson.

Reinbacher isnt gonna be there past 10.

I'm torn. I support BPA but I also don't like stacking our pool with smurfs. I'd easily take Michkov if he slips but am I super excited if we draft a Jarvis with Benson and he does turn into Jarvis? Not really but Jarvis is decent. We may already have that in Farrell? How many undersized/skilled types can we shelter in terms of trying to win a cup? I think that's subjective to who you ask.

I think Reinbacher goes 10-15. He's not eligible to play U18's right? Turned 18 Oct of 2022. I can't argue too much that he will be there in the 10-15 range cause he is a RD with good size and good trends and teams do like to draft D. If we are thinking about it, some other team is as well.

I'm going to trust Bob's end of season rankings so I'll wait. I always find the variance in rankings as the season moves along interesting. You would think that if it is indeed a deep draft, the top 10 or top 15 would be more stable from Sept to June right?

- Benson or Reinbacher, probably
- Reinbacher will not be available in that range
- Not worth trading down from 6

I think Benson is a much better all around player than Jarvis personally. He does more, and he does it all better imo. Jarvis might be quicker but that's about it

What are the reasons why several posters think that Reinbacker goes in the top 10? He's ranked 20th on Bob's list and 19 on Elite Prospect consolidated rankings.

I'm not sure there is a massive gap between Jarvis's draft year vs Benson's. Similar size and skills and both rosters had 5 or 6 pt/game players. Edge to Benson today? Sure, I'll buy that. Much better type narrative? I don't agree.

 

[le_sean]

But I was told him and Dvorsky were nearly equal as prospects

 

[JT3]

What are the reasons why several posters think that Reinbacker goes in the top 10? He's ranked 20th on Bob's list and 19 on Elite Prospect consolidated rankings.

You're putting a little too much stock in current/past rankings I think. In reality they are mostly meaningless until the final rankings a few weeks out from the draft. But once the top end talents are off the board (at the latest) teams will be eyeing the top D in the draft who has all the tools needed to succeed as a top pairing defenseman. There's no way the 1st D is going mid round, especially one as good as Reinbacher. I would bet my house on it.

 

[le_sean]

You could say he's under the Aydar

Wondering what his story is as he came to NA quite young for a Russian and is going the NCAA route which is unheard of.

 

[Pompeius Magnus]

Wondering what his story is as he came to NA quite young for a Russian and is going the NCAA route which is quite unheard of.

Can't say I know much about the kid, seems like he's been playing in NA since he was 14 , so he's definitely more of a north american product style wise.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Tier 3 looks pretty solid even with clear difference with top 4 tier. But I think if Habs can grab Benson or Smith, that would be a very good consolation prize if we don't win top 2 pick in lottery draft.

I would put Moore and Leonard easily on tier 3, they have high offensive potential at NHL level, they are not far away to a player like Smith, they are very very solid. Danielson is a wildcard on that tier aswell.

I'm a big fan of Yager, Dvorsky and Reinbacher, if Habs pick between 7-9... I would easily consider them.

Sale, Cristall, Musty, Honzek, Wood, Barlow, Heidt, Perreault and Ritchie can all become great target for Florida pick.

Question:

What value do you put into draft ranking variances from Sept to June in their draft year at age 17/18? When I look at the past and see the disappointments, what I see is we are putting a lot of weight towards evaluating guys from Jan-June and should we be looking at ages 15-18? Lets face it, points come and go depending on who you play with and how stacked the rosters are with talent.

I really like guys who are producing on a island by themselves and stand out in the eye test area. Puck possession, skills, skating, vision, skating, shot, ability to play physical and win puck battles.

Look at a guy like Roy? Slips in his draft year and Covid was a factor but he was highly rated well before his draft year.

I do think we took Slaf due to how he was trending in the back half of his draft year and also combined with how he looked in the seasons prior as well.

 

[Mrb1p]

I'm torn. I support BPA but I also don't like stacking our pool with smurfs. I'd easily take Michkov if he slips but am I super excited if we draft a Jarvis with Benson and he does turn into Jarvis? Not really but Jarvis is decent. We may already have that in Farrell? How many undersized/skilled types can we shelter in terms of trying to win a cup? I think that's subjective to who you ask.

I think Reinbacher goes 10-15. He's not eligible to play U18's right? Turned 18 Oct of 2022. I can't argue too much that he will be there in the 10-15 range cause he is a RD with good size and good trends and teams do like to draft D. If we are thinking about it, some other team is as well.

I'm going to trust Bob's end of season rankings so I'll wait. I always find the variance in rankings as the season moves along interesting. You would think that if it is indeed a deep draft, the top 10 or top 15 would be more stable from Sept to June right?



What are the reasons why several posters think that Reinbacker goes in the top 10? He's ranked 20th on Bob's list and 19 on Elite Prospect consolidated rankings.

I'm not sure there is a massive gap between Jarvis's draft year vs Benson's. Similar size and skills and both rosters had 5 or 6 pt/game players. Edge to Benson today? Sure, I'll buy that. Much better type narrative? I don't agree.

Theres always a lag in draft rankings. Reinbacher was an unknown just a few weeks ago. Seider was 21st in January, Caufield 18th. Kotkaniemi 19th, Kravtsov 39th. Kasper was 19th.

It always happens, especially with euros playing in pro leagues.

 

[Habs Halifax]

You're putting a little too much stock in current/past rankings I think. In reality they are mostly meaningless until the final rankings a few weeks out from the draft. But once the top end talents are off the board (at the latest) teams will be eyeing the top D in the draft who has all the tools needed to succeed as a top pairing defenseman. There's no way the 1st D is going mid round, especially one as good as Reinbacher. I would bet my house on it.

I don't believe so. I think it's risky to put all your hope into a half of season trend. With Slaf that is true, but then you consider that he was highly rated well before his draft year. He was a consistent top 5 value all season during his draft year but performed very well from Jan-June.

Late bloomers? Sure. That's a factor too. I like to factor a lot of context into it.

Theres always a lag in draft rankings. Reinbacher was an unknown just a few weeks ago. Seider was 21st in January, Caufield 18th. Kotkaniemi 19th, Kravtsov 39th. Kasper was 19th.

It always happens, especially with euros playing in pro leagues.

I do remember Seider's and KK's rankings moving down as the season moved along. Caufield? You sure he was ranked 18th in Jan, half way through his draft year?

I know it happens. My point is if you take Reinbacher inside the top 10, are you taking a Seider or are you taking a Kravtsov?

Way back when we were talking KK, I did ask a big question... How many times does a late bloomer or hot stock end up busting or disappointing? At that time, not many wanted to even consider that talk and I asked the question several times.

I don't hate Reinbacher. I see what you see but inside the top 10? I'm going to wait to see end of season rankings from Bob first. We all like to follow prospects and we know a fair amount of hockey knowledge but we are simply not pro scouts and even they get things wrong.

 

[Mrb1p]

I don't believe so. I think it's risky to put all your hope into a half of season trend. With Slaf that is true, but then you consider that he was highly rated well before his draft year. He was a consistent top 5 value all season during his draft year but performed very well from Jan-June.

Late bloomers? Sure. That's a factor too. I like to factor a lot of context into it.



I do remember Seider's and KK's rankings moving down as the season moved along. Caufield? You sure he was ranked 18th in Jan, half way through his draft year?

I know it happens. My point is if you take Reinbacher inside the top 10, are you taking a Seider or are you taking a Kravtsov?

Way back when we were talking KK, I did ask a big question... How many times does a late bloomer or hot stock end up busting or disappointing? At that time, not many wanted to even consider that talk.

Theres most likely no correlation to the data you mention. Also, out of all the persons mentionned, Kravtsov is the only busy and hes still a NHL player, so.....

 

[Habs Halifax]

Theres most likely no correlation to the data you mention. Also, out of all the persons mentionned, Kravtsov is the only busy and hes still a NHL player, so.....

No disrespect but I fell into this type of trap with KK in that draft year. You can try to say there is no correlation but you have no evidence to provide to dismiss it. It's one opinion vs another so I rather talk this through vs make it an argument

We are looking for more than just a NHL player with our pick right?

I really do value late bloomers in their draft year but also combined with other context who had stable rankings or performance from all the 15-17/18 years. I suspect some scouts look at this as well.

 

[JT3]

I don't believe so. I think it's risky to put all your hope into a half of season trend. With Slaf that is true, but then you consider that he was highly rated well before his draft year. He was a consistent top 5 value all season during his draft year but performed very well from Jan-June.

Late bloomers? Sure. That's a factor too. I like to factor a lot of context into it.

He's not a half season trend though. He emerged early season on Kloten but it's a re-occuring case of a defenseman emerging in his draft year and scouting services lagging in response to how they should be ranked. I've used the Seider/Sanderson comparison often where they really emerged in their draft years and scouting services didn't properly apply that to their rankings. I think that is a similar case with Reinbacher.

Reinbacher is a 6'2, 190lb 18 year old D who is playing a huge role on a mens professional team. He is a strong skater, can use his size effectively, solid defensively, can effectively transition the puck either with a strong outlet or by skating it out, and has a fantastic shot. A team will be running to the podium to select him in the top 10, if not us then maybe Vancouver.

I have seen people downplaying him consistently because 'it's a weak D draft and they don't want to reach on a d-man because of that'. For one, he's not a reach, and two, the fact that it's a weak draft for D drives his stock up, not down. At the moment there is really only one guy with a fairly projectable top pair ceiling and that's him. He's not going in the mid 1st. It just won't happen.

 

[Mrb1p]

He's not a half season trend though. He emerged early season on Kloten but it's a re-occuring case of a defenseman emerging in his draft year and scouting services lagging in response to how they should be ranked. I've used the Seider/Sanderson comparison often where they really emerged in their draft years and scouting services didn't properly apply that to their rankings. I think that is a similar case with Reinbacher.

Reinbacher is a 6'2, 190lb 18 year old D who is playing a huge role on a mens professional team. He is a strong skater, can use his size effectively, solid defensively, can effectively transition the puck either with a strong outlet or by skating it out, and has a fantastic shot. A team will be running to the podium to select him in the top 10, if not us then maybe Vancouver.

I have seen people downplaying him consistently because 'it's a weak D draft and they don't want to reach on a d-man because of that'. For one, he's not a reach, and two, the fact that it's a weak draft for D drives his stock up, not down. At the moment there is really only one guy with a fairly projectable top pair ceiling and that's him. He's not going in the mid 1st. It just won't happen.

Its just annoying people that scout lists instead of players.

 

[Habs Halifax]

He's not a half season trend though. He emerged early season on Kloten but it's a re-occuring case of a prospect emerging in his draft year and scouting services lagging in response to how they should be ranked. I've used the Seider/Sanderson comparison often where they really emerged in their draft years and scouting services didn't properly apply that to their rankings. I think that is a similar case with Reinbacher.

Reinbacher is a 6'2, 190lb 18 year old D who is playing a huge role on a mens professional team. He is a strong skater, can use his size effectively, solid defensively, can effectively transition the puck either with a strong outlet or by skating it out, and has a fantastic shot. A team will be running to the podium to select him in the top 10, if not us then maybe Vancouver.

I have seen people downplaying him consistently because 'it's a weak D draft and they don't want to reach on a d-man because of that'. For one, he's not a reach, and two, the fact that it's a weak draft for D drives his stock up, not down. At the moment there is really only one guy with a fairly projectable top pair ceiling and that's him. He's not going in the mid 1st. It just won't happen.

If your opening statement was true, his Sept ranking and Jan ranking would be better. Rankings are lagging in response? We will see about that. I'm fully aware of the Seider and Sanderson past. However, just cause you can cherry pick a past example that fits the narrative, it don't mean it will apply to Reinbacher. That's like saying Dach can break out into a star like Thompson did. Exceptions are not general rules.

Do you think I'm downplaying Reinbacher when I think he moves to 10-15 range vs inside the top 10 where he is ranked 19/20th at the moment? What we are discussing here is how much he might move down bud

 

[Gaylord Q Tinkledink]

We need.. big, fast, skilled.. probably undervalued being in the BCHL.

Another player of interest. Would be nice if the Habs could secure another another 2nd.

Get this guy, or one of the two Swedish centres.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Its just annoying people that scout lists instead of players.

It's also annoying to spin the conversation when there is a fair conversation going on and you get frustrated that you can't convince others to think like you do. I've seen you take a hard line on things and be completely off and I have as well. Proceed with what you do. I'm going to stay humble and trust Bob's list. An no, I am paying attention in Reinbacher's potential movement and what he is doing. It's not entirely a list ranking approach and purposely comprehending it that way is on you.

Why are you going to get upset if I say he moves from 19/20 to 10-15 vs your inside of the top 10? Folks, we have a huge debate here... 9 vs 12

 

[Mrb1p]

It's also annoying to spin the conversation when there is a fair conversation going on and you get frustrated that you can't convince others to think like you do. I've seen you take a hard line on things and be completely off and I have as well. Proceed with what you do. I'm going to stay humble and trust Bob's list. An no, I am paying attention in Reinbacher's potential movement and what he is doing. It's not entirely a list ranking approach and purposely comprehending it that way is on you.

Why are you going to get upset if I say he moves from 19/20 to 10-15 vs your inside of the top 10? Folks, we have a huge debate here... 9 vs 12

I dont care for lists, I care for prospects. It bores me to discuss the opinion of someone else when an opinion is so easily formed by your own time.

 

[JT3]

If your opening statement was true, his Sept ranking and Jan ranking would be better. Rankings are lagging in response? We will see about that. I'm fully aware of the Seider and Sanderson past. However, just cause you can cherry pick a past example that fits the narrative, it don't mean it will apply to Reinbacher. That's like saying Dach can break out into a star like Thompson did. Exceptions are not general rules.

Do you think I'm downplaying Reinbacher when I think he moves to 10-15 range vs inside the top 10 where he is ranked 19/20th at the moment? What we are discussing here is how much he might move down bud

With your own obsession over Mackenzies rankings you should hopefully understand how they work. They are a combination of 10 scouts opinions. He wasn't even ranked in his September rankings, presumably because he was a relative unknown at the time. Then in January he moved up to 20, but that was still fairly early on and the hype was still growing and he may not have gotten all the eyes on him yet. In the final rankings most scouts should have actual knowledge on the player rather than the few who managed to see him early season. The combination of more knowledge and his play over the year should propel his ranking upwards.

Regardless of all that, I'm not sure why you're so gung ho on being correct on a player that you've scouted from a list rather than watched yourself. I am certainly no expert and am just an armchair scout like many others here, so obviously my word can be taken with a grain of salt. But I am personally confident that he will be highly, highly valued come draft time. Not only based on his tools but also just scarcity and the simple application of supply and demand.

 

[Habs Halifax]

I dont care for lists, I care for prospects. It bores me to discuss the opinion of someone else when an opinion is so easily formed by your own time.

Call me crazy but I do look into the prospects a lot on what they are doing but I also trust Bob's list a lot too.

I'd take a more hard stance if I was an actual scout traveling to watch the actual games. I'd love to but I got a 8-5, mon-fri job.

 

[Habs Halifax]

With your own obsession over Mackenzies rankings you should hopefully understand how they work. They are a combination of 10 scouts opinions. He wasn't even ranked in his September rankings, presumably because he was a relative unknown at the time. Then in January he moved up to 20, but that was still fairly early on and the hype was still growing and he may not have gotten all the eyes on him yet. In the final rankings most scouts should have actual knowledge on the player rather than the few who managed to see him early season. The combination of more knowledge and his play over the year should propel his ranking upwards.

Regardless of all that, I'm not sure why you're so gung ho on being correct on a player that you've scouted from a list rather than watched yourself. I am certainly no expert and am just an armchair scout like many others here, so obviously my word can be taken with a grain of salt. But I am personally confident that he will be highly, highly valued come draft time. Not only based on his tools but also just scarcity and the simple application of supply and demand.

Not an obsession. Don't like how you can't comprehend what I am saying well and how you twist it to an obsession with a belittle narrative. Not the type of conversation I prefer to have

Moves from 19/20 to 10-15 or inside of the top 10 . This conversation does not warrant you flipping this back as a obsession belittle jab.

 

[JT3]

Not an obsession. Don't like how you can't comprehend what I am saying well and how you twist it to an obsession with a belittle narrative. Not the type of conversation I prefer to have

Moves from 19/20 to 10-15 or inside of the top 10

Well you consistently cite Mackenzie's rankings in this thread rather than any actual viewings on players, so I'm not sure what else you'd like us to assume. And I'm not sure why it should even need to be stated that a draft ranking does not directly correlate to actual draft results, but you can keep making your list based arguments and all there is left to do is see what happens at the draft I guess.

I don't have anything further to add to the conversation.