Agree to disagree.
He has below average sense for the defensive side of the game, is not very active in his own zone, and the worst +/- on his team (where 90% of his team is positive). If all it took was effort and a bit of physicality, Josh Anderson would be a premier shutdown wing, but we all know that is far from the case.
In juniors, an elite offensive player should at least be able to outscore any defensive issues they have, but he doesn't. And 50% of his points on the PP is significant. 37 of 60 assists. He produces less at 5v5 than Sawchyn or Myatovic.
Why are we somehow dismissing PP production ? Players that produce on the PP are actually in demand, and players that can do it on the PP and at ES are usually elite. I've seen more than enough of Heidt to know what kind of player he is, he's a glue-guy, supporting kind of player that will make your whole line better. He plays like Marchand. His handles are near perfect, his passing is top 5 in the draft, he doesn't have intensity problems, he doesn't have skating problems. His shot is also very good and underrated.
Also, no one on his team actually is outscoring their "issues", not Ziemmer, not Wheatcroft, not anyone. Everyone is around -5/+5. That indicates you it's probably a team systems kind of thing.
Again, he's not great defensively, but much like Cristall... Who gives a flying f*** ? And while Cristall can cherry pick and be a floater, Heidt tries and is very good on the backcheck.
I mean it's analytics in the sense that he's trying to use numbers to better understand how players play. Is it the best one? No. Is it the worst one? Probably not either. I appreciate this because it gives you more information on a player, but if you base yourself solely on this, then obviously that's bad.
The reason why people don't like Byron is that he solely uses his numbers to make his arguments and doesn't add any context on top of it. He's the definition of a "spreadsheet scout."
First, just wanted to say that I really appreciate all of you taking the time to answer my questions, especially with so much detail haha. It's one of the main reasons why I prefer here vs Twitter.
From what I gather, I'd say that most scouts prefer ASP than Reinbacher because the "meta" right now seems to be really good skating and puckhandling in the offensive zone. Good skating translates (although not always) to better in transition in the neutral zone which then means more time in the offensive zone. Pair that with good puckhandling -> More chances to score.
Please tell me to f*** off if this is not correct, but would this be correct? In the offensive zone, both Reinbacher and ASP are pretty much the same. Reinbacher has bigger size and shot which allows him to be as good as ASP who has better puckhandling and vision? ASP is a better skater so he's better in transition than Reinbacher. Reinbacher is better defensively than ASP thanks to size and reach. I know IQ is also valued on these forums, so I'd assume Reinbacher might have better hockey IQ than ASP.
The other question would be: Is the reason why we're putting Reinbacher so high because we undervalued Guhle's strengths at the time?
Youre falling into the preconceived notion that small = faster. ASP is not a faster player than Reinbacher. ASP is fluid, especially when handling the puck, but he lacks separating speed and does not possess high end speed. I also don't think there's much, if any doubt that Reinbacher is the better offensive zone player. He is a superior player at walking the line and getting pucks through, let alone finding open ice to blast bombs and owning a superior array of shots. He is more agressive and attacks seams at a much greater pace than ASP. Both players move the box at an equal rate, and that is very high on both ends. ASP is just slower to process the next move he wants to make, or telegraphs it a bit more at times.
ASP actually struggles at times in transition, players come at him fast and he's slow to pick up the puck and make a move in corners to send the puck up ice. Reinbacher doesn't have that problem, at least, not anything special for a 18 years old kid playing against pros.
I was wrong about Guhle. I really thought his offensive upside was lower and that the NHL would close the gap he was able to exploit in the WHL. I also didn't find his production anything special. Thats the mistake you make of mostly stats watching, I didn't scout him much as I mostly focus on underdrafted players. With that said, I am way, way higher on Reinbacher than Guhle on draft day and Guhles already a #1 D most nights.