2023 NHL Entry Draft

[Blame the referee]

It would be a pretty Montreal thing to grab another defenseman in a draft loaded with talented forward.

Please HuGo, go get some offense!

 

[phillytennis]

If we are inside the top 6 I'll be mad if they take Reinbacher but at 7 plus it's a lot more palatable barring something crazy like Michkov still being on the board or something

I would not consider taking Reinbacher until our Florida pick...11th--13th overall.

 

[Skip Bayless]

Hughes and Gorton were at the Centre Bell tonight.

Reinbacher fans after reading this:

 

[MarkovsKnee]

If we can just get into that #5 spot the odds are heavily in our favor that we get a top 6 pick. I can't see two teams above 5 jumping into a top 2 spot. One yes, but not 2.

Then it's just a matter to see if we get a lottery pick ourselves.

A top 6 pick gets us into the Smith/Benson range.

 

[Playmaker09]

I respect you're opinion but Imma have to ask if you are on crack, sir.

While he's not a shutdown forward, he tries hard and is relentless on the back check. He tries and makes good plays more often than bad ones. He is dependant on the PP to score at historic rates, sure. He's not dependant on the PP to score at elite rates. He also only has 4 PPGs and Ziemmer has less than half of his goals on the PP too, its not like he's that dependant on the PP.

Agree to disagree.

He has below average sense for the defensive side of the game, is not very active in his own zone, and the worst +/- on his team (where 90% of his team is positive). If all it took was effort and a bit of physicality, Josh Anderson would be a premier shutdown wing, but we all know that is far from the case.

In juniors, an elite offensive player should at least be able to outscore any defensive issues they have, but he doesn't. And 50% of his points on the PP is significant. 37 of 60 assists. He produces less at 5v5 than Sawchyn or Myatovic.

 

[Estimated_Prophet]

Habs first pick = Smith
Panthers pick = Reinbacher
2nd = Harbal


best case scenario

I would prefer:

Habs first pick = Smith/Sale
Panthers pick = Dvorsky/Barlow

The 2nd round is much weaker than it was last season and it is anybody's guess who will be available. It just feels weird to make a selection as the player that I would want would have to be someone that I had as a first rounder. Ideally a Honsek or But fall to us but I really doubt it. I don't believe in using high draft capital on goaltenders but if there is not a skater at 39ish that they love then maybe a Hrabal or Gajan might be barely palatable. Even though I would like to avoid collecting more small players, Brindley would also be difficult to pass up closer to the middle of the 2nd round.

 

[Estimated_Prophet]

Don’t think there’s much hyperbole. I think most agree that he’s a future solid Top-4 defenceman rather than a #1. However, the same was said about Guhle and he’s looking incredible. The fact we can possibly pick the top defenceman in the draft and that he slots perfectly with our needs is enticing. I don’t think Barron is anything more than a #4 and I’m not really sure what Mailloux is, but it’s definitely not top pairing.

Every time I watch Reinbacher I come away wanting more. I really feel as though he is too far up the rankings due to him maybe being the best of a historically weak D-pool. I think Barron looked as good if not better at the same age tbh.

I need to watch more of Reinbacher for sure but he seems very vanilla to me, especially in a draft with so many good forwards at the top. I think I am more interested in taking forwards with our top two picks and maybe see if they can uncover another right handed version of Engstrom hidden in the 2nd/3rd round. I would definitely like to have Reinbacher in the system but as I said in an earlier post, taking Reinbacher high feels like Carolina taking Hanifin at #5 with Rantanen, Barzal and Connor still on the board. I think we would look back at such a selection with great regret even if he turns out to be a decent player.

I would love to draft some good RHD's but the draft is not the only way to acquire them. This draft is loaded in the top half of the first round with talented forwards and we need to take advantage of that. Let's just take the best players and if we have to move assets to fill holes in the lineup we can do so when we have more information about the construction of this roster.

 

[Jaynki]

Reinbacher is absolutely gone top 10. Dont think he is available with FLA pick.

Id be ok with him at 5-6-7 depending who is picked before.

Guhle - Reinbacher has the making of a terrific, terrific first pair. (I still can't believe Guhle is only 20 years old, what a stud, me thinks he is a 8-9M dollar man after his ELC)

 

[KevSkillz4]

Reinbacher is absolutely gone top 10. Dont think he is available with FLA pick.

Id be ok with him at 5-6-7 depending who is picked before.

Guhle - Reinbacher has the making of a terrific, terrific first pair. (I still can't believe Guhle is only 20 years old, what a stud, me thinks he is a 8-9M dollar man after his ELC)

Agree... but more in 6-9 range. 5-6, Habs need to draft between Benson and Smith. But yeah, I would be happy to grab a player like David Reinbacher with the Habs pick. Florida pick, a good forward will be still there, this draft is stacked, so it's ok to grab Reinbacher at range 6-9. Perfect guy for Lane Hutson aswell. Hutson - Reinbacher or Guhle - Reinbacher, WoW!

 

[Hins77]

Every time I watch Reinbacher I come away wanting more. I really feel as though he is too far up the rankings due to him maybe being the best of a historically weak D-pool. I think Barron looked as good if not better at the same age tbh.

I need to watch more of Reinbacher for sure but he seems very vanilla to me, especially in a draft with so many good forwards at the top. I think I am more interested in taking forwards with our top two picks and maybe see if they can uncover another right handed version of Engstrom hidden in the 2nd/3rd round. I would definitely like to have Reinbacher in the system but as I said in an earlier post, taking Reinbacher high feels like Carolina taking Hanifin at #5 with Rantanen, Barzal and Connor still on the board. I think we would look back at such a selection with great regret even if he turns out to be a decent player.

I would love to draft some good RHD's but the draft is not the only way to acquire them. This draft is loaded in the top half of the first round with talented forwards and we need to take advantage of that. Let's just take the best players and if we have to move assets to fill holes in the lineup we can do so when we have more information about the construction of this roster.

I would say, previously the first 7/8th rank at the draft, there are 7 forwards « bust proof » (mitchkov,bedard,fantilli,smith,carlsson, benson). After, There is a risk link at those forward according to size/production). Most of them could become top 6, but many of them those could also bust. This is why, a guy like Reinbacher wich like to be a sure bet as a top 4 dman could be pick up. He is producing well in swiss leaguw wich is a very tough league.

 

[Habs Icing]

Before answering, I just wanted to mention that Reinbacher had a 2 pts game (1+1) today against Bern, likely in front of Hughes who apparently flew overseas to watch Reinbacher specifically. I think Kloten is playing playoffs games right now, so possibly the best moment to watch the kid live and see what he is made of, meet with him and get all the possible infos you can get.

Hughes was at the game against the Rangers so he flew nowhere to see Reinbacher.

 

[Garnet76]

I feel the Habs should take the two forwards with the highest ceiling. They need offensive players. No need to reach for a dman in a forward stacked draft. Not the draft to over think it. Next year's draft looks to be more balanced.

 

[Hannibal]

We need offence in a deep forwards draft.

Draft a forward.

 

[Michoulicious]

I like Reinbacher as well and I know we need a high RHD prospect, but he would be a reach IMO in the 6-9 range.

I'd go with one if the forwards as well. If he's still there with Florida's pick, that is another story.

 

[KevSkillz4]

I think if the pick of Panthers is between 15-20... I would consider a player like Quentin Musty... he is on pace for a season 99 points.

A lot of options with Florida pick... Matthew Wood is a good gamble at this range aswell.... except skating... he have high offensive potential. Wood and Musty looks like underrated to me. Same thing with Colby Barlow and Riley Heidt aswell. Gabbe Perreault is a option too. Calum Ritchie have great tools. Nate Danielson is a wildcard... he is worth a top 10 talent but maybe he is going to be there at Florida pick.

Sooo good option at forward, no doubt!

 

[Estimated_Prophet]

I would say, previously the first 7/8th rank at the draft, there are 7 forwards « bust proof » (mitchkov,bedard,fantilli,smith,carlsson, benson). After, There is a risk link at those forward according to size/production). Most of them could become top 6, but many of them those could also bust. This is why, a guy like Reinbacher wich like to be a sure bet as a top 4 dman could be pick up. He is producing well in swiss leaguw wich is a very tough league.

I agree that risk escalates fairly early in the 1st round but with much of that risk comes a significant payoff. In Reinbacher's case I just don't see much upside and I may very well be wrong but he doesn't seem to have any exceptional qualities/traits. He looks like a high floor/low ceiling prospect and I personally am not looking for that with early 1st round picks.There are just too many forwards with much higher upside than Reinbacher that will be available in the Florida pick range. I have seen his stats but I have yet to be remotely overwhelmed by him in my viewings. He looks like a good prospect but imo a prospect who should go closer to 20th OA than near the top 10. I truly believe that if there was even 1 stud d prospect in this draft that Reinbacher would lose much of his appeal as it feels like people are bumping him up solely based on being the best defender available.

Reinbacher is one of the older first time draft eligible kids in the draft and he plays in a relatively weak league so I am less impressed with his stats than others and I just haven't seen him really drive much offence. He seems to play very safe (which is not bad for a defender) but I have seen little evidence to suggest that he has anything more than average skill. His skating is decent but he is not fast or especially smooth and he has shown a little physicality but is not going to intimidate anyone. I think his likely ceiling is a 2nd pairing dman who maybe plays on the 2nd pp unit. These types are easily acquired at the trade deadline when we are contenders. It would be nice to have him in the fold but I would rather shoot for higher upside with these high picks while we have them.

We currently have a boatload of good LD prospects and HuGo could very well end up flipping one to an organization that has a hole at LD in return for a RD prospect.

 

[Colezuki]

Silly question regarding the lottery, if Florida is 12th and wins the second lottery do they get the 3rd or 2nd pick?

 

[Hins77]

I agree that risk escalates fairly early in the 1st round but with much of that risk comes a significant payoff. In Reinbacher's case I just don't see much upside and I may very well be wrong but he doesn't seem to have any exceptional qualities/traits. He looks like a high floor/low ceiling prospect and I personally am not looking for that with early 1st round picks.There are just too many forwards with much higher upside than Reinbacher that will be available in the Florida pick range. I have seen his stats but I have yet to be remotely overwhelmed by him in my viewings. He looks like a good prospect but imo a prospect who should go closer to 20th OA than near the top 10. I truly believe that if there was even 1 stud d prospect in this draft that Reinbacher would lose much of his appeal as it feels like people are bumping him up solely based on being the best defender available.

Reinbacher is one of the older first time draft eligible kids in the draft and he plays in a relatively weak league so I am less impressed with his stats than others and I just haven't seen him really drive much offence. He seems to play very safe (which is not bad for a defender) but I have seen little evidence to suggest that he has anything more than average skill. His skating is decent but he is not fast or especially smooth and he has shown a little physicality but is not going to intimidate anyone. I think his likely ceiling is a 2nd pairing dman who maybe plays on the 2nd pp unit. These types are easily acquired at the trade deadline when we are contenders. It would be nice to have him in the fold but I would rather shoot for higher upside with these high picks while we have them.

We currently have a boatload of good LD prospects and HuGo could very well end up flipping one to an organization that has a hole at LD in return for a RD prospect.

I agree. But In management talking. I think top 4 dman have better market value than top 6 forward. So when it comes to the draft, there is some reach especially at dman, so I wouldnt be surprise to see Reinbacher been pick up earlier. Last year, I had korchinski at 7th. Many poster were saying I put him too high. There is always 2/3 dman in each draft been selected on top 10. We just need to know wich one will be.

 

[KevSkillz4]

Silly question regarding the lottery, if Florida is 12th and wins the second lottery do they get the 3rd or 2nd pick?

Second. Just 10 spot they can move.

 

[MarkovsKnee]

Silly question regarding the lottery, if Florida is 12th and wins the second lottery do they get the 3rd or 2nd pick?

2nd. Teams can move up 10 spots.

If they're in 13th, they can't move higher than #3
14th, #4, etc, etc.

 

[le_sean]

I agree that risk escalates fairly early in the 1st round but with much of that risk comes a significant payoff. In Reinbacher's case I just don't see much upside and I may very well be wrong but he doesn't seem to have any exceptional qualities/traits. He looks like a high floor/low ceiling prospect and I personally am not looking for that with early 1st round picks.There are just too many forwards with much higher upside than Reinbacher that will be available in the Florida pick range. I have seen his stats but I have yet to be remotely overwhelmed by him in my viewings. He looks like a good prospect but imo a prospect who should go closer to 20th OA than near the top 10. I truly believe that if there was even 1 stud d prospect in this draft that Reinbacher would lose much of his appeal as it feels like people are bumping him up solely based on being the best defender available.

Reinbacher is one of the older first time draft eligible kids in the draft and he plays in a relatively weak league so I am less impressed with his stats than others and I just haven't seen him really drive much offence. He seems to play very safe (which is not bad for a defender) but I have seen little evidence to suggest that he has anything more than average skill. His skating is decent but he is not fast or especially smooth and he has shown a little physicality but is not going to intimidate anyone. I think his likely ceiling is a 2nd pairing dman who maybe plays on the 2nd pp unit. These types are easily acquired at the trade deadline when we are contenders. It would be nice to have him in the fold but I would rather shoot for higher upside with these high picks while we have them.

We currently have a boatload of good LD prospects and HuGo could very well end up flipping one to an organization that has a hole at LD in return for a RD prospect.

I think he has nice skating dynamics for a 6’2 RD. He also is really good at using deception to give himself space. Keep in mind he’s playing on international ice so once that gets less wide in NA, he’s going to look better. He was the only good player on Austria and when he was on the ice he made his team look exceptionally better. I would also not say his league is weak, it remains a decent men’s league. They can dress 20 players each game and often have 8 defencemen on the bench. He still gets the 2nd most icetime. 22 points for a guy that’s labeled as just “solid” is remarkable. Josi only had 8 in his draft year.

There’s definitely room for improvement in his game and we’d be lucky to add him to our pool.

 

[Estimated_Prophet]

I agree. But In management talking. I think top 4 dman have better market value than top 6 forward. So when it comes to the draft, there is some reach especially at dman, so I wouldnt be surprise to see Reinbacher been pick up earlier. Last year, I had korchinski at 7th. Many poster were saying I put him too high. There is always 2/3 dman in each draft been selected on top 10. We just need to know wich one will be.

Absolutely agree that generally top 3/4 dmen are more valuable than 5/6 forwards but it is an inexact equation to be sure. The problem here is that I don't see the upside in Reinbacher to be a top pairing dman whereas there are plenty of forwards with 1st line upside albeit at varying degrees of probability. I would rather take a shot at a forward and striking gold then to settle for the safe dman who will almost be guaranteed to look like a mistake 10 years down the road when there are half a dozen players taken relatively shortly afterwards who go on to be better players.

I have no problem taking dmen high as I was wrestling with the idea of Nemec at 1 OA last season and both him and Jiricek in my top 4 but I don't see any of the dynamic qualities that they had in Reinbacher.

Korchinski is/was also a much better prospect than Reinbacher as he is far more skilled. I think Nemec, Jiricek, Korchinski, Mateychuk and Mintyukov were all better than Reinbacher at the time of the draft who I would have taken just ahead of Bichsel.

 

[AHShadow]

With respect to Byron Bader.

What he does is nothing related to analytics.

He is simply taking a player production in his league, has established an equivalency between each league (example 1 CHL points = 0.3 NHL points, 1 AHL points = 0.5 NHL points, etc.) and then his models compares to historical data and set odds based on where past players with similar equivalency have fared in two category (NHL regular and NHL Star(above 0.7ppg in his career.)

The idea is nice but it is too simplistic right now and full of flaws. It barely has any utility as it is constructed right now. Go look at his past draft list and you will see how random and inaccurate it is.

Example in 2020, he had Stutzle 13 if i remember correctly and he totally busted the top 5.

I mean it's analytics in the sense that he's trying to use numbers to better understand how players play. Is it the best one? No. Is it the worst one? Probably not either. I appreciate this because it gives you more information on a player, but if you base yourself solely on this, then obviously that's bad.

The reason why people don't like Byron is that he solely uses his numbers to make his arguments and doesn't add any context on top of it. He's the definition of a "spreadsheet scout."

The other factor is he plays in a league that most of those guys don't watch often, if at all, so they haven't seen him much and when they do, they aren't able to properly contextualize what he's doing.

I think there's also a counter bias going on in those types of scouting communities where its automatically assumed the smaller defenseman/forward has more offensive ability than the bigger guy. I'd actually rate ASP and Reinbacher's offensive games similarly. Neither one of them possess high end creativity or unique offensive tools that will have them being PP1 options.

So in the case of the two of them, Reinbacher is going to have an easier time translating his defense to the NHL because he's bigger, stronger, and mobile at that height. While both face the same challenges to create offense in the NHL.

Before answering, I just wanted to mention that Reinbacher had a 2 pts game (1+1) today against Bern, likely in front of Hughes who apparently flew overseas to watch Reinbacher specifically. I think Kloten is playing playoffs games right now, so possibly the best moment to watch the kid live and see what he is made of, meet with him and get all the possible infos you can get.

I havent scouted ASP alot personally and I dont really know how he handles himself defensively, but I would be really surprised if he was close to Reinbacher when it comes to defending and physicaility, which one is very high end when it comes to Reinbacher, he is also much bigger and has the frame to play that type of hockey. Offensively, I noticed that ASP was an outstanding puckhandler, one of the best I saw in recent years, he really a beauty to watch while carrying the puck, very good skater, but his shot hasnt been a treath in this tournament, the main reason why he didnt get many pts IMO. when it comes to quarterbacking a PP, your shot needs to be a weapon in order to become a double treath instead of being more unidimentional, so the shot was lacking in this tournament, while Reinbacher's shooting skills are superior or more advanced at this point of their respective development. Reinbacher has all the tools to play 25 mins a night and be trusted in all situations, the reason why he seems a lock to become a solid top pairing in the making, ASP is similar to what Victor Soderstrom was in his draft year. I think talent level is close, but defensively is where Reinbacher clearly gets the edge.

You can call it hyperbole if you want, Ill just say most people are lagging with their opinion of him. Happens all the time. People have pre-conceived notions of a player and the relative shift in opinion takes forever to settle in. I don't know if you're actually disagreeing or if you have any information, but if you do, provide. What do you think he lacks to be in a top defender ?

Guhle is like... one of the best u21 defender on the planet right now ? He's better than Sanderson who went #5 in a strong draft.

That he reminds you of Guhle isn't scaring me at all lol. I was low on Guhle too, and I think Reinbacher imposes his will a lot more on teams than Guhle.

Also, its not scouts promoting Reinbacher, a lot of them have ASP or Gulyayev ahead of him and almost none of them have him inside the top 10. I personally had him top 6 since january, and thats when I start scouting extensively.

Reinbacher literally has all the strength of ASP on top of a booming shot, a deadly fast wrister, the size of an ox and the agression of a wolverine.

Ok, jokes aside, ASP is a more fluid skater and puckhandler than Reinbacher, but due to cheer size and power, the end results are the same. Reinbacher has great reach and power and this allows him to shed defenders and open up lanes on the same level that ASP does. Actually, Im pretty certain Reinbacher is faster than ASP, but ASP is very good at retaining speed because of his near-perfect edges.

I really like ASP if Im honest and think he's underrated in this crop, it's not as bad as they say defense wise. With that said, I do think he's similar in value to Hutson, and I do think Reinbacher is in another tier of defender.

Every time I watch Reinbacher I come away wanting more. I really feel as though he is too far up the rankings due to him maybe being the best of a historically weak D-pool. I think Barron looked as good if not better at the same age tbh.

I need to watch more of Reinbacher for sure but he seems very vanilla to me, especially in a draft with so many good forwards at the top. I think I am more interested in taking forwards with our top two picks and maybe see if they can uncover another right handed version of Engstrom hidden in the 2nd/3rd round. I would definitely like to have Reinbacher in the system but as I said in an earlier post, taking Reinbacher high feels like Carolina taking Hanifin at #5 with Rantanen, Barzal and Connor still on the board. I think we would look back at such a selection with great regret even if he turns out to be a decent player.

I would love to draft some good RHD's but the draft is not the only way to acquire them. This draft is loaded in the top half of the first round with talented forwards and we need to take advantage of that. Let's just take the best players and if we have to move assets to fill holes in the lineup we can do so when we have more information about the construction of this roster.

First, just wanted to say that I really appreciate all of you taking the time to answer my questions, especially with so much detail haha. It's one of the main reasons why I prefer here vs Twitter.

From what I gather, I'd say that most scouts prefer ASP than Reinbacher because the "meta" right now seems to be really good skating and puckhandling in the offensive zone. Good skating translates (although not always) to better in transition in the neutral zone which then means more time in the offensive zone. Pair that with good puckhandling -> More chances to score.

Please tell me to f*** off if this is not correct, but would this be correct? In the offensive zone, both Reinbacher and ASP are pretty much the same. Reinbacher has bigger size and shot which allows him to be as good as ASP who has better puckhandling and vision? ASP is a better skater so he's better in transition than Reinbacher. Reinbacher is better defensively than ASP thanks to size and reach. I know IQ is also valued on these forums, so I'd assume Reinbacher might have better hockey IQ than ASP.

The other question would be: Is the reason why we're putting Reinbacher so high because we undervalued Guhle's strengths at the time?

 

[Estimated_Prophet]

I think he has nice skating dynamics for a 6’2 RD. He also is really good at using deception to give himself space. Keep in mind he’s playing on international ice so once that gets less wide in NA, he’s going to look better. He was the only good player on Austria and when he was on the ice he made his team look exceptionally better. I would also not say his league is weak, it remains a decent men’s league. They can dress 20 players each game and often have 8 defencemen on the bench. He still gets the 2nd most icetime. 22 points for a guy that’s labeled as just “solid” is remarkable. Josi only had 8 in his draft year.

There’s definitely room for improvement in his game and we’d be lucky to add him to our pool.

For sure, I certainly am not going to cry if we take him with the Florida pick. I may **** my pants if we take him at 5-9 though lol.

He is a good skater and does many things well but he does look a little clunky at times and I quite literally have never seen him wow me with a show of skill. I admit that I am hardly an authority on all that is David Reinbacher so I plan on doing a deeper dive.

I am not a fan at all of comparing prospects decades apart from their statistical performances in pro Euro leagues. Prospects mature differently and different clubs/coaches deploy 18 year olds in vastly different manners. That being said, dmen take a long time to mature and it is generally unwise to be too committed to a commentary on teenage dmen who have the tools but are learning to play the game.

 

[Estimated_Prophet]

First, just wanted to say that I really appreciate all of you taking the time to answer my questions, especially with so much detail haha. It's one of the main reasons why I prefer here vs Twitter.

From what I gather, I'd say that most scouts prefer ASP than Reinbacher because the "meta" right now seems to be really good skating and puckhandling in the offensive zone. Good skating translates (although not always) to better in transition in the neutral zone which then means more time in the offensive zone. Pair that with good puckhandling -> More chances to score.

Please tell me to f*** off if this is not correct, but would this be correct? In the offensive zone, both Reinbacher and ASP are pretty much the same. Reinbacher has bigger size and shot which allows him to be as good as ASP who has better puckhandling and vision? ASP is a better skater so he's better in transition than Reinbacher. Reinbacher is better defensively than ASP thanks to size and reach. I know IQ is also valued on these forums, so I'd assume Reinbacher might have better hockey IQ than ASP.

The other question would be: Is the reason why we're putting Reinbacher so high because we undervalued Guhle's strengths at the time?

ASP is basically a ND for me with our two first rounders. I take Reinbacher all day over him even though I think ASP is a little more dynamic because I much prefer Reinbacher's defensive game. To me ASP is just another Jordan Harris, which is not necessarily bad but is definitely not what we need.