2023 NHL Draft situation

[RememberTheRoar]

I still feel like 2-10 is very fluid for me.

Not married to anything other than Bedard at #1.

I thought you were set on Fantilli at 2 as well. What changed, or am I misremembering?

 

[Kevin Musto]

I thought you were set on Fantilli at 2 as well. What changed, or am I misremembering?

I have him ranked at 2.

It's likely he stays there.

But there's more hockey left to be played. Things can happen. Playoff performances matter.

 

[Sinbad]

The SCENARIO has to be posed:

IF we do notcwin the lottery should KD offer our entire Draft set of picks for Brdard?

Would a GM who wins the #1in the lottery make such a deal?

Or is 1 Generational worth the haul that bottom feeders gets with what the Hawks have in in thus draft index where we pick early in rounds lulu's our multiple picks.?

I cannot remember which NFL GM offered his team's entire draft for just 1 player he desperately wanted ..but offering our entire draft for1 Generatuonal talent seems good to me..Sure we do not get deoth and we risk the whole enchilada on 1 guy who might drop dead the next day for all we know...but still :

. Would YOU make that offer?
Do you think the GM winning the lottery would accept our offer if made?

First off, no I wouldn’t offer the Hawks entire set of draft picks for the opportunity to select Bedard. Chances are there is a top three pick included not to mention an additional 1st and early 2nd.

Secondly, we don’t even know what the Hawks entire set of draft picks includes at this time. there is a strong possibility they add at least one more first/seconds at the deadline.

One thing should be abundantly clear by now after watching teams like Edmonton, Toronto etc., having an elite level talent does not guarantee you a Stanley Cup unless you have a deep supporting group of players to go with them.

 

[Northernhawk]

Monday and the Hawks are back in the basement!

Tankathon has us picking 1, 27, 33 and 59...this is who they have ranked at those spots...all forwards

1.Connor Bedard, Regina
27.Quentin Musty, Sudbury
33.Samuel Honzek, Vancouver
59.Roman Kantserof, Stalnye(rus)

 

[hawksfan50]

We could be drafting in all liklihood somewhere from 1st to 5th after lotto...Always possible we drop as much as 2 spots in lotto process where 1 or 2 teams higher in standings win in the lotto and bump us down 1cor 2 spots...

So whether we finish last,2nd last or 3rd last we could drop 1 or 2 soits after the lotto process if it goes that poorly for us..

Consensus is Hawks of course grab Bedard if we are #1pick after lotto process..

Fantilli would seem to be our #2 pick if that is our draft spot....impressive stats at Michigan in NCAA...less impresive at WJHC but he was not given 1st PP unit time like Bedard got...and he used at LW ...not his normal C position and either 2nd or 3rd line useage..not 1st line ...so maybe unfair to judge hom there given the limitations he faced...My concern is lack of an elite shot ...goid but getsa lot of attempts blocked ,question on shot accuracy ,on goalies saving on his shots ,or on sniping ability from distance...may be more assists guy thana top goal scorer type.

If we draft 3rd after lotto the candidates are Leo Carlsson,Matveiv Michkov or WILL SNITH...
It is hard to rate Carlsson first because he plays against men in Sweden and 2nd because against Juniors at WJHC he played RWr mostly and was sick at tge start of the tournament...to his credit he got better as the tournament progressed.. Another good alk-roubd Big C type..but again may not be elite
I doubt Hawks wait 3 more seasons after draft for Michkov...maybe the take the risk only if we
Draft 4t or 5th?

If we draft 4th ....depends who remains on the board after #3 pick ..
2of Carlsson,Smith and Michkov wpukd still be on the board so 1 of thec2 remainders after #3we would take.

If we draft 5th

....if Smith or Michkov still there we probably take him...unless we want to throw in a surprise...

The problem with Zach Benson ,Brayden Yager and Oliver Moore is their size...all smaller prospects ...Benson 5'9 the other 2 at 5'10 ...maybe they spurt maybe not ..but it might
Might be concerning enough to jump to Colby Barlow wh o maybe under-ranked o most rankings.
His skating and speed are Elite....goal scoring ability is probably 2nd only to Bedard or Michkov
But Michkov may either be off the board or Hawks do not want to wait 3 more years after draft to get iom over or risk if he can leave Russia by that time...

If you project Barlow"s points till end of OHll regular season it cones to 52 g 47 a = 99 pts and +40 for 65 GP ..that isxa hell of a good prospect at LW with decent size and ability to add muscle to frame of 6'1 ...

Will Smith (USNTP) just to compare his projection for his USHL competition games projected for games remaining then adjusted to go from 42 Gp to 65GP woukdvhave:
29g 80 a =109 pts ...
Will Smith is 6"0 =in shorter than Barlow and about the same (as listed) in lowx170s ...
So you need to ask if the 10 extra points Smith projects to at 65 USHL games is that much better than the 99 points Barlow projects to in the OHL for Owen Sound forv 65l GP by season end given their current paces?

Are the OHL and USHL junior leagues equal conoetition?
Even if you say they are equal the factvis that Barlow plays for a single team whereas the USNTDP squad is a packed al-star team( though it is younger than the USHL average age because the USNTDP u-18 team playing some games in the USHL is age kimited compared to the 19 ;20 and overages skewing the average age mark for the OHL ).
SO while Barlow plays with sone 19,20 and overages on his team ,his team is not a compilation of the best talent from all of Canada eve if itwas restricted to his own age group as Smith pkays with tge best talent of his age group picked from all over the U.S.

So given these differences plus maybe some would credit the OHL as a better league than tge USHL,one might dispute who is the better prosoect to take among these 2 kids?
Maybe Barlow should be ahead of Smith and worthy too of a #3-#5 pick overall?
Smith does play C,however .. and top Centers are usually more valued at drafts than top wingers...
One thing that does stand out for each of them:

Elite playmaker= projection for Smith 80a to just 29g for 65 GP (vs USHL) indicatec a very huge skew of assists over goals ...

Elite Goal Scorer =Barlow
52 g to 47a =a more balanced scoring threat with much higher ability to beat goalies than Smith gives you.

1 question what Barlow migt put up if he switched places with Smith and played with the talent Smith has frpm the many 1st rounders who will be drafted off that USNTDP squad ?
I wonder how much less stats Smith would get
on an Owen Sound team that is not a tipsters in the OHL where he kije Barlow has to do more heavy lifting by himself to get such good stats5?

It leads to great debates:
.Quality of team they play on.
.Quakity of juniors competition in league they play games in.
.What do they put up on stats if they switched teams (Smith in Owen Soubdc,Barlow in UDNTP u18)?
So maybe Barlow shoukd be consired for a #3 to#5draft overall ?

 

[Kaners Bald Spot]

Someone also pointed out that while Bedard is a great prospect, he's not producing at the CHL level like McDavid and Crosby, but actually closer to Kane and Tavares.
So while he is most probably a franchise talent, maybe we should pump the brakes on Bedard being generational.

Patrick Kane has more ppg in the CHL in his D0 year than Bedard does, though Bedard is several months younger than Kane was.

Now that being said, Regina sucks and idk how good London was that year but I do know they had Sam Gagner, who was the 6th overall pick among others.

 

[ClydeLee]

Someone also pointed out that while Bedard is a great prospect, he's not producing at the CHL level like McDavid and Crosby, but actually closer to Kane and Tavares.
So while he is most probably a franchise talent, maybe we should pump the brakes on Bedard being generational.

Patrick Kane has more ppg in the CHL in his D0 year than Bedard does, though Bedard is several months younger than Kane was.

Now that being said, Regina sucks and idk how good London was that year but I do know they had Sam Gagner, who was the 6th overall pick among others.

8 pt game Gagner used to joke he made Kaner the 1st overall pick

 

[DisgruntledHawkFan]

Someone also pointed out that while Bedard is a great prospect, he's not producing at the CHL level like McDavid and Crosby, but actually closer to Kane and Tavares.
So while he is most probably a franchise talent, maybe we should pump the brakes on Bedard being generational.

Patrick Kane has more ppg in the CHL in his D0 year than Bedard does, though Bedard is several months younger than Kane was.

Now that being said, Regina sucks and idk how good London was that year but I do know they had Sam Gagner, who was the 6th overall pick among others.

London had the best record in the OHL. Kostitsyn has a monster year for that team too.

 

[Kevin Musto]

Someone also pointed out that while Bedard is a great prospect, he's not producing at the CHL level like McDavid and Crosby, but actually closer to Kane and Tavares.
So while he is most probably a franchise talent, maybe we should pump the brakes on Bedard being generational.

Patrick Kane has more ppg in the CHL in his D0 year than Bedard does, though Bedard is several months younger than Kane was.

Now that being said, Regina sucks and idk how good London was that year but I do know they had Sam Gagner, who was the 6th overall pick among others.

Bedard is averaging 2.5 ppg.

Kane's draft year he played at a 2.5 ppg clip. McDavid was 2.55ppg. Crosby was 2.7ppg.

Bedard in his last 10 games is producing 3.6 ppg.

 

[CanadianHawks]

Bedard had two hat tricks in first two games back for Regina. Apparently that team only has one other decent forward. Guy had 11 points those two games.

Pretty sure he’s gonna dismantle the WHL the rest of this year

 

[Chuck Testa]

Someone also pointed out that while Bedard is a great prospect, he's not producing at the CHL level like McDavid and Crosby, but actually closer to Kane and Tavares.
So while he is most probably a franchise talent, maybe we should pump the brakes on Bedard being generational.

Patrick Kane has more ppg in the CHL in his D0 year than Bedard does, though Bedard is several months younger than Kane was.

Now that being said, Regina sucks and idk how good London was that year but I do know they had Sam Gagner, who was the 6th overall pick among others.

London had Kane, Gagner and Kostitsyn as a line that season they all put up great numbers for that London team.

 

[cassac]

Someone also pointed out that while Bedard is a great prospect, he's not producing at the CHL level like McDavid and Crosby, but actually closer to Kane and Tavares.
So while he is most probably a franchise talent, maybe we should pump the brakes on Bedard being generational.

Patrick Kane has more ppg in the CHL in his D0 year than Bedard does, though Bedard is several months younger than Kane was.

Now that being said, Regina sucks and idk how good London was that year but I do know they had Sam Gagner, who was the 6th overall pick among others.

Did you watch the World Juniors?

I do not know how anyone could think that Bedard does not deserve generational labeling as a prospect after his performance during the tournament. Granted prospects can fall flat but Bedard should be talked about as the same as the pre draft McDavid and Crosby (and higher than Matthews).

 

[TheFridge]

Someone also pointed out that while Bedard is a great prospect, he's not producing at the CHL level like McDavid and Crosby, but actually closer to Kane and Tavares.
So while he is most probably a franchise talent, maybe we should pump the brakes on Bedard being generational.

Patrick Kane has more ppg in the CHL in his D0 year than Bedard does, though Bedard is several months younger than Kane was.

Now that being said, Regina sucks and idk how good London was that year but I do know they had Sam Gagner, who was the 6th overall pick among others.

Before taking the time to type this out, apparently regurgitating something someone else said, why wouldn't you simply double check the numbers?

Bedard D0 = 2.51 PpG + 3.2 PpG WJC
Kane D0 = 2.5 PpG + 1.28 PpG WJC
McDavid D0 = 2.55 PpG + 1.57 PpG WJC
Crosby D0 = 2.7 PpG + 1.5 PpG WJC

Not to mention, we have other metrics today that we can use to measure prospects and how much offense they generate. I'm not sure who was posting it on twitter -- probably an EPRinkside scout -- but it isn't just that Bedard is badly out-producing everyone in the CHL, he creates more chances for himself and his teammates than anyone at any level he's played at this year and it's not close.

 

[Kaners Bald Spot]

Before taking the time to type this out, apparently regurgitating something someone else said, why wouldn't you simply double check the numbers?

Bedard D0 = 2.51 PpG + 3.2 PpG WJC
Kane D0 = 2.5 PpG + 1.28 PpG WJC
McDavid D0 = 2.55 PpG + 1.57 PpG WJC
Crosby D0 = 2.7 PpG + 1.5 PpG WJC

Not to mention, we have other metrics today that we can use to measure prospects and how much offense they generate. I'm not sure who was posting it on twitter -- probably an EPRinkside scout -- but it isn't just that Bedard is badly out-producing everyone in the CHL, he creates more chances for himself and his teammates than anyone at any level he's played at this year and it's not close.

I didn't look up McDavid and Crosby but I did look up Kane and Tavares.
At the time Bedard was at 2.41 ppg and Kane was at 2.5. Tavares is not a D0 comp because he only put up 1.85 ppg, most of his big years were actually not his D0 year.

And yes, I watched the WJC and Bedard was head and shoulders above everyone else.
Maybe this isn't a knock on Bedard but rather how good of a prospect Kane was?

 

[RememberTheRoar]

I didn't look up McDavid and Crosby but I did look up Kane and Tavares.
At the time Bedard was at 2.41 ppg and Kane was at 2.5. Tavares is not a D0 comp because he only put up 1.85 ppg, most of his big years were actually not his D0 year.

And yes, I watched the WJC and Bedard was head and shoulders above everyone else.
Maybe this isn't a knock on Bedard but rather how good of a prospect Kane was?

I don’t think I’ve seen anyone serious say that Bedard will be better than McDavid. The argument is that Bedard is the best prospect SINCE McDavid.

What are you getting caught up on, and why are you claiming people need to “pump the brakes?” He’s clearly the best offensive talent in this draft, and will be the first player picked.

 

[Kaners Bald Spot]

I don’t think I’ve seen anyone serious say that Bedard will be better than McDavid. The argument is that Bedard is the best prospect SINCE McDavid.

What are you getting caught up on, and why are you claiming people need to “pump the brakes?” He’s clearly the best offensive talent in this draft, and will be the first player picked.

Bedard hasn't been in the NHL yet. He's clearly the best player in this draft. I think we should pump the brakes on saying he's McDavid or Crosby level until he does it in the NHL. I'm probably being overly conservative but I've learned my lesson on being overly optimistic with prospects and I'm now leaning toward conservatism. If I'm going too far the other way, that's fine but I'm now leaning toward being more cautious.


Got burned by Dach and Boqvist, who I really liked at the draft and when they were Hawks prospects.

 

[Kevin Musto]

Got burned by Dach and Boqvist, who I really liked at the draft and when they were Hawks prospects.

Imagine comparing Connor Bedard to Dach and Boqvist lol

 

[RememberTheRoar]

Bedard hasn't been in the NHL yet. He's clearly the best player in this draft. I think we should pump the brakes on saying he's McDavid or Crosby level until he does it in the NHL. I'm probably being overly conservative but I've learned my lesson on being overly optimistic with prospects and I'm now leaning toward conservatism. If I'm going too far the other way, that's fine but I'm now leaning toward being more cautious.


Got burned by Dach and Boqvist, who I really liked at the draft and when they were Hawks prospects.

Who has said he’s Crosby and McDavid? Are you sure you’re not just jumping to that conclusion on your own?

 

[Putt Pirate]

Imagine comparing Connor Bedard to Dach and Boqvist lol

That would be utter blasphemy.

 

[Kaners Bald Spot]

Imagine comparing Connor Bedard to Dach and Boqvist lol

I'm not. I'm just saying prospects are suspects until proven otherwise. Doesn't matter how good they are.
Bedard is in a different league than Dach and Boqvist, anyone with a brain knows that.

I thought Boqvist was Lubomir Visnovsky for example.

I was probably way too high on Dach as I overestimated his ability to score goals. I thought he was Sean Couturier.

I think those were reasonable expectations for those players based on their draft position and skillset.

 

[DisgruntledHawkFan]

Kane wasn't easily the first overall pick like Bedard is and Bedard has high tougher competition for the spot.

 

[TheFridge]

I didn't look up McDavid and Crosby but I did look up Kane and Tavares.
At the time Bedard was at 2.41 ppg and Kane was at 2.5. Tavares is not a D0 comp because he only put up 1.85 ppg, most of his big years were actually not his D0 year.

And yes, I watched the WJC and Bedard was head and shoulders above everyone else.
Maybe this isn't a knock on Bedard but rather how good of a prospect Kane was?

Bedard is a better prospect than Kane was when he was drafted, and that's coming from a huge Kane fan. Bedard plays at a pace Kane never did. He attacks teams and opposition in a way Kane rarely does. Kane is a brilliant player but if I could have picked either at 18, it would be Bedard easily.

 

[Kaners Bald Spot]

If Bedard has a career like Kane has so far is that a disappointment? What about Jack Eichel?

 

[Kevin Musto]

If Bedard has a career like Kane has so far is that a disappointment?

No.

What about Jack Eichel?

Yes.

 

[DisgruntledHawkFan]

If Bedard has a career like Kane has so far is that a disappointment? What about Jack Eichel?

Is this a serious question?