2023 NHL Draft situation

[Styles]

Quick question for those who might know, can Bedard still experience a final growth spurt to take him to an even 6 feet tall? Most sites now list him as 5.10.

Yeah all he has to do is tell NHL.com he’s 6ft and he’s good to go.

 

[Behn Wilson]

Yeah all he has to do is tell NHL.com he’s 6ft and he’s good to go.

Or if he is a pro wrestler they can announce him at 6'5" and well over the 250 pound mark.

Used to love Gorilla Monsoon with the inflated weights. A 240 pound guy announced at 280 and Gorilla would say, announced at 280 but we all know he is well over the 300 pound mark.

Nowadays they are announcing 170 pound smurfs as 205,

 

[Styles]

KD come on down. Zaitsev only has 2 years left at 4.5M

 

[Kevin Musto]

Yeah all he has to do is tell NHL.com he’s 6ft and he’s good to go.

That must be what McTavish did

I saw him and Bedard together last year at the world juniors and they're the same height

 

[hawksfan50]

Currently our TB pick is #25 and we also would draft 1st in round 2...let us hope TB fails to advance to EC Final when playoffs start.

Finishing last to mecdoonsvusxfrom winning lotto as team with best odds.. you justknow that will not pan out.

However if sideshow CBJbor Anh manages to catch us then grab last at tge finish then drafting 2ndvirc3rd pre-lotto means the fatesxprobabkyvdo giveaway luck to move upto 1 after the draw...just my feeling on lotto luck.

But finishing 2nd or 3rd pre-lotto means dropping from #33 to #34 or #35 ...notcsure if that makes much difference but it coukd IF our preferred target for that pick is still there at #33 and maybe hevgetsctaken just before we puck in the #34 or #35 shoukd we finish only 2ndvir3rd pre-lotto.
So.. I am not sure which of these scenarios KD wants...1st pick pre-lotto with a chancevof getting bumped down 1 or 2 slots or finishing 2nd or 3 rd with a chancecto move upto#1?but knowing you woukd not get 1st crack at the kid you targeted if you picked 33rd?

 

[EddieTheEagle]

Currently our TB pick is #25 and we also would draft 1st in round 2...let us hope TB fails to advance to EC Final when playoffs start.

Finishing last to mecdoonsvusxfrom winning lotto as team with best odds.. you justknow that will not pan out.

However if sideshow CBJbor Anh manages to catch us then grab last at tge finish then drafting 2ndvirc3rd pre-lotto means the fatesxprobabkyvdo giveaway luck to move upto 1 after the draw...just my feeling on lotto luck.

But finishing 2nd or 3rd pre-lotto means dropping from #33 to #34 or #35 ...notcsure if that makes much difference but it coukd IF our preferred target for that pick is still there at #33 and maybe hevgetsctaken just before we puck in the #34 or #35 shoukd we finish only 2ndvir3rd pre-lotto.
So.. I am not sure which of these scenarios KD wants...1st pick pre-lotto with a chancevof getting bumped down 1 or 2 slots or finishing 2nd or 3 rd with a chancecto move upto#1?but knowing you woukd not get 1st crack at the kid you targeted if you picked 33rd?

Are you seriously questioning if we want to finish dead last and then draft at the start of each round, or play the worse odds and finish 2nd/3rd and ride lottery luck and pick worse each round? It may be my reading comprehension...

 

[Northernhawk]

Are you seriously questioning if we want to finish dead last and then draft at the start of each round, or play the worse odds and finish 2nd/3rd and ride lottery luck and pick worse each round? It may be my reading comprehension...

Lottery only affects first round

Currently we’d be in the lottery for diary overall but would pick 1st in rounds two through seven as WE ARE THE WORST

 

[EddieTheEagle]

Lottery only affects first round

Currently we’d be in the lottery for diary overall but would pick 1st in rounds two through seven as WE ARE THE WORST

Yeah, I agree and understand how it works. It may be my reading comprehension but it felt like Fiddy wasn't on board with finishing dead last and picking 1-3 and then 33, 65, 97, etc.

 

[Sarava]

Are you seriously questioning if we want to finish dead last and then draft at the start of each round, or play the worse odds and finish 2nd/3rd and ride lottery luck and pick worse each round? It may be my reading comprehension...

I think he's saying the worst team wont win the lottery, and for superstition reasons or something, he likes our chances at Bedard if the Hawks are 2nd or 3rd worse.

 

[EddieTheEagle]

I think he's saying the worst team wont win the lottery, and for superstition reasons or something, he likes our chances at Bedard if the Hawks are 2nd or 3rd worse.

Okay, so he is just silly. I'll play percentages and finish dead last with a 25.5% chance of picking Bedard, and then pick first in each subsequent round, rather than eff with voodoo.

Here Fiddy: 2023 NHL Draft Lottery Odds | Tankathon

 

[Sarava]

Okay, so he is just silly. I'll play percentages and finish dead last with a 25.5% chance of picking Bedard, and then pick first in each subsequent round, rather than eff with voodoo.

Here Fiddy: 2023 NHL Draft Lottery Odds | Tankathon

Yeah. And I think I know where he is coming from. It does feel like the worst teams usually lose these draft lottery's, despite having the best chance.

 

[EddieTheEagle]

Yeah. And I think I know where he is coming from. It does feel like the worst teams usually lose these draft lottery's, despite having the best chance.

I mean, they have the "best chance" but the field still has 74.5% chance of getting him, so I can see how it feels that way. At the end of the day, put yourself in the best position to play the statistics and see how it goes. You also at least get the first crack at each round. Dead last for me, please.

 

[Northernhawk]

Yeah. And I think I know where he is coming from. It does feel like the worst teams usually lose these draft lottery's, despite having the best chance.

Not sure why tankathon has two different winning pcts for the Hawks at #1?

 

[Sarava]

I mean, they have the "best chance" but the field still has 74.5% chance of getting him, so I can see how it feels that way. At the end of the day, put yourself in the best position to play the statistics and see how it goes. You also at least get the first crack at each round. Dead last for me, please.

For sure

Not sure why tankathon has two different winning pcts for the Hawks at #1?

I've wondered this too. I keep seeing either 18% or 25%. Which is it?

 

[Northernhawk]

Right now if the Hawks pick #1 or #2 or #3, #27 and #33 tankathon has them selecting forwards...

Connor Bedard/Adam Fantilli/Leo Carlsson
Samuel Honzek
Danny Nelson

I’ll take those three...no prob

 

[CallMeShaft]

I think the difference might be due to teams finishing 12-16 cannot win 1st (can only move up ten spots).

Hawks might only have 18.8% chance at winning the 1st overall pick via the lottery, but they also can get that pick simply by having a couple teams win the lottery without moving all the way up to 1st overall.

 

[EddieTheEagle]

I think the difference might be due to teams finishing 12-16 cannot win 1st (can only move up ten spots).

Hawks might only have 18.8% chance at winning the 1st overall pick via the lottery, but they also can get that pick simply by having a couple teams win the lottery without moving all the way up to 1st overall.

This is exactly correct. Their odds of winning the lotto are 18.8% but factoring all other team's odds, and some not being able to hit #1 overall, they have a slightly more than 1/4 chance of getting Bedard and a 100% chance of landing one of Bedard, Fantilli, Carlsson, Michkov.

 

[Happyhary9]

For sure


I've wondered this too. I keep seeing either 18% or 25%. Which is it?

The 18% is just for the Hawks to win the actual lottery. The 25% includes all outcomes. Since teams can only move up 10 spots, if teams 12 through 16 win the lottery, Chicago retains #1.

 

[Happyhary9]

This is exactly correct. Their odds of winning the lotto are 18.8% but factoring all other team's odds, and some not being able to hit #1 overall, they have a slightly more than 1/4 chance of getting Bedard and a 100% chance of landing one of Bedard, Fantilli, Carlsson, Michkov.

If we are last the lowest we pick is 3. If teams 13 through 16 win the 1st pick we still pick 1st.

The one situation I am unsure about is say 12 wins the 1st pick and then another team inside the top 11 wins pick #2. So team 12 can only go up 10 to 2 but the other team won pick 2? So do Hawks stay 1 or drop to 3 and who stays at 2 and who gets 1?

 

[EddieTheEagle]

If we are last the lowest we pick is 3. If teams 13 through 16 win the 1st pick we still pick 1st.

The one situation I am unsure about is say 12 wins the 1st pick and then another team inside the top 11 wins pick #2. So team 12 can only go up 10 to 2 but the other team won pick 2? So do Hawks stay 1 or drop to 3 and who stays at 2 and who gets 1?

The first draw is for #1 overall. So if a team in 12-16 wins the first draw, they move to #2-#6. The Hawks would then keep 1st overall regardless. All they have to do is survive one ball draw.

The second ball draw determines #2 overall, so if another team in the top 11 wins, they move to #2 or retain #2 overall.

I may be mistaken but this is how I remember it working.

 

[Happyhary9]

The first draw is for #1 overall. So if a team in 12-16 wins the first draw, they move to #2-#6. The Hawks would then keep 1st overall regardless. All they have to do is survive one ball draw.

The second ball draw determines #2 overall, so if another team in the top 11 wins, they move to #2 or retain #2 overall.

I may be mistaken but this is how I remember it working.

Ya I get that. But what happens say on the first draw #12 wins, that would give them #2 pick (due to only moving up 10, 12 to 2). Now say team 10 wins second draw (pick 2), now technically both those teams sit at #2. Do those teams bump to 1/2 or Hawks stay at 1 and they slide in at 2/3?

If I had to guess team 12 gets pick 2 because they won the first draw and then team 10 would slide in at 3, with Hawks retaining pick 1? Just not 100% on that crazy combo of events.

 

[CallMeShaft]

Ya I get that. But what happens say on the first draw #12 wins, that would give them #2 pick (due to only moving up 10, 12 to 2). Now say team 10 wins second draw (pick 2), now technically both those teams sit at #2. Do those teams bump to 1/2 or Hawks stay at 1 and they slide in at 2/3?

If I had to guess team 12 gets pick 2 because they won the first draw and then team 10 would slide in at 3, with Hawks retaining pick 1? Just not 100% on that crazy combo of events.

From Tankathan

The 1st overall pick is awarded by a drawing of ping pong balls. A team can only jump ten spots, so only the top 11 teams are eligible for the 1st pick. If a team in the 12-16 range wins the first drawing, the first pick will remain with the worst team.

The 2nd overall pick is awarded by a drawing of ping pong balls. If a team in the 12-16 range won the first drawing, the worst team keeps the 1st pick and is excluded from the second drawing. Like the first drawing, the second winner can only jump ten spots.

So it seems if a team between 12-16 wins the 1st lottery, they'd get pick 2-6 (depending on their original position), and the Hawks would be awarded 1st overall no matter who won the 2nd drawing.

In your hypothetical, it seems like team 10 would indeed get 3rd.

 

[Happyhary9]

From Tankathan



So it seems if a team between 12-16 wins the 1st lottery, they'd get pick 2-6 (depending on their original position), and the Hawks would be awarded 1st overall no matter who won the 2nd drawing.

In your hypothetical, it seems like team 10 would indeed get 3rd.

Cool. That is what I thought. Guess I should have read those rules on tankathon. Thanks though.

 

[Putt Pirate]

From Tankathan



So it seems if a team between 12-16 wins the 1st lottery, they'd get pick 2-6 (depending on their original position), and the Hawks would be awarded 1st overall no matter who won the 2nd drawing.

In your hypothetical, it seems like team 10 would indeed get 3rd.

So that just makes it a cover your butt to make sure and finish dead last in case one of those teams wins the lottery? If one of those teams(12-16) wins it then the worst team is the first overall pick?

 

[EddieTheEagle]

Long story short, let's finish last. It is advantageous and especially this year.