HF Habs: 2023 NHL Draft part 2

[MarkovsKnee]

Only Reinbacher could blow out his knee in his big showcase and somehow rise on everyone’s board lol

He didn't blow out his knee. There's a link in the Word Championship thread that showed a Switzerland news report that he wasn't seriously injured.

He might still come back & play.

He was rising because he looked fantastic against Sweden before the incident.

This has a David Jiricek situation written on it all over again. So many people were bitching about him in last year's WC thread. Now it seems half the board are, yeah, I wanted this guy, we should have taken him. Lol

Reinbacher is really good.

 

[Cubebrick]

He didn't blow out his knee. There's a link in the Word Championship thread that showed a Switzerland news report that he wasn't seriously injured.

He might still come back & play.

He was rising because he looked fantastic against Sweden before the incident.

This has a David Jiricek situation written on it all over again. So many people were bitching about him in last year's WC thread. Now it seems half the board are, yeah, I wanted this guy, we should have taken him. Lol

Reinbacher is really good.

Wait a few years and you'll see how Jiricek was supposedly this fanbase's unanimous pick lol, just like apparently everyone and their mother were head over heels in love with Tkachuk in 2018.

 

[ReHabs]

He didn't blow out his knee. There's a link in the Word Championship thread that showed a Switzerland news report that he wasn't seriously injured.

He might still come back & play.

He was rising because he looked fantastic against Sweden before the incident.

This has a David Jiricek situation written on it all over again. So many people were bitching about him in last year's WC thread. Now it seems half the board are, yeah, I wanted this guy, we should have taken him. Lol

Reinbacher is really good.

If we were drafting even 6 I think it would make more sense to debate between (imo) Benson and him. But at 5, with likely Smith on the board? No way.

We’ve been dreaming about a prospect like Smith for so long.

Wait a few years and you'll see how Jiricek was supposedly this fanbase's unanimous pick lol

Are you saying you don’t believe that Slaf was the right choice?

 

[Cubebrick]

If we were drafting even 6 I think it would make more sense to debate between (imo) Benson and him. But at 5, with likely Smith on the board? No way.

We’ve been dreaming about a prospect like Smith for so long.


Are you saying you don’t believe that Slaf was the right choice?

No, I'm saying that a lot of people in this fanbase has a knack for rewriting draft narratives over time.

 

[montreal]

BPA isn’t a real thing. There is no objectivity in such domains. Only an oblivious observer would believe there is such a thing as BPA.

If the Habs have Reinbacher at 5, I’ll cautiously trust them but if it’s a coinflip it makes zero sense to go with the D when you need a skill forward more than anything.

that's just plain BS. BPA is 100% a real thing.

If the Habs pick Reinbacher at 5, I don't believe you when you say you will trust them.

 

[ReHabs]

No, I'm saying that a lot of people in this fanbase has a knack to rewriting draft narratives over time.

I think that’s fair and you should learn to ignore those who seem too loose with their own narratives.

Not sure what that has to do with drafting a D-man at 5 in this historically Forward-laden, top-heavy draft class.

Imo if they draft a forward who busts over Reinbacher who becomes a future top-pairing D it would be more excusable than drafting Reinbacher and letting slip future top-line forward Will Smith.

There are no guarantees and no objective answers in such matters. It’s about weighing the risks — for a team as needy as ours, it’s time to swing for the fences and get the forward we can’t acquire by trade or free agency.

 

[JT3]

that's just plain BS. BPA is 100% a real thing.

If the Habs pick Reinbacher at 5, I don't believe you when you say you will trust them.

Based on his activity in the Slafkovsky thread over the past year, I'd have to agree with you on that one.

 

[ReHabs]

that's just plain BS. BPA is 100% a real thing.

If the Habs pick Reinbacher at 5, I don't believe you when you say you will trust them.

If BPA was real there would never be any reaches or surprises on draft day.

If there was an objective Best Player between two players, everybody would know which one it was.

But there clearly are different interpretations of what constitutes “best” and each scout and each scouting regime has their own bespoke model.

If the Habs think Reinbacher is BPA I will cautiously trust that they did their homework (but as you say — they have not given me any reason to trust their drafting so far) but I don’t think the difference between Reinbacher and Smith is such that Reinbacher is a clear BPA. If the difference is small enough to be a coin flip, you go with Smith not Reinbacher.

Based on his activity in the Slafkovsky thread over the past year, I'd have to agree with you on that one.

You mean based on Slafkovksy’s activity over the past year.

 

[JT3]

I think that’s fair and you should learn to ignore those who seem too loose with their own narratives.

Not sure what that has to do with drafting a D-man at 5 in this historically Forward-laden, top-heavy draft class.

Imo if they draft a forward who busts over Reinbacher who becomes a future top-pairing D it would be more excusable than drafting Reinbacher and letting slip future top-line forward Will Smith.

There are no guarantees and no objective answers in such matters. It’s about weighing the risks — for a team as needy as ours, it’s time to swing for the fences and get the forward we can’t acquire by trade or free agency.

This doesn't even make any sense. Why is one fine but not the other? Because one scenario doesn't suit your personal preference?

And you know that you can't really acquire a top pair D in trade or free agency either, right? At least no more consistently than you can a 1st line forward.

 

[montreal]

If BPA was real there would never be any reaches or surprises on draft day.

If there was an objective Best Player between two players, everybody would know which one it was.

what? that makes no sense at all. Of course there's BPA but the reason why you get reaches or surprises is because not every team is drafting for BPA, some do draft for need at times.

Then you have the whole, lots of teams suck at drafting 18 year olds, the BPA isn't wrong but the person who scouted him and thought he was BPA or wasn't, simply put was just wrong. It happens a lot because scouting 17/18 year olds is hard to do when they aren't McDavid, Bedard's, etc...

 

[26Mats]

Between ASP ans Reibacher witch one is the best ?
I Like ASP better but it seems like Reinbacher is up there in HF.
But the Mock draft have ASP ahead

Reinbacher is bigger and projects better defensively.

ASP has more offensive potential but is more risky to hit it, is what I gather.

 

[ReHabs]

This doesn't even make any sense. Why is one fine but not the other? Because one scenario doesn't suit your personal preference?

And you know that you can't really acquire a top pair D in trade or free agency either, right? At least no more consistently than you can a 1st line forward.

Because prospects bust all the time, it is not a risk worth taking up too much attention.

Simply put my argument is Habs have a much stronger defence prospect pool (+ Guhle, etc.) than the forward prospect pool. In this draft, at 5, you have very good forward prospect available at 5 who would instantly become our best prospect.

what? that makes no sense at all. Of course there's BPA but the reason why you get reaches or surprises is because not every team is drafting for BPA, some do draft for need at times.

Then you have the whole, lots of teams suck at drafting 18 year olds, the BPA isn't wrong but the person who scouted him and thought he was BPA or wasn't, simply put was just wrong. It happens a lot because scouting 17/18 year olds is hard to do when they aren't McDavid, Bedard's, etc...

If teams have incomplete information or imprecise ways of gathering this information then it clearly means BPA as perceived by these teams is not correct.

Following that, since no team and no scout is perfect, that means they’ll never be consistently and reliably correct about BPA. It might as well not be a thing.

Teams do draft for need and get it wrong. Teams also draft “BPA” and get it wrong too.

It’s not a magic thing where you say BPA and the BPA reveals himself. Like you say, and we know, scouting is an art and it isn’t very easy.

I simply don’t see the value in picking a D with so many roughly equal or better Fs still available at 5.

Let’s change gears: Why would you pick Reinbacher over Smith?

 

[Michoulicious]

This doesn't even make any sense. Why is one fine but not the other? Because one scenario doesn't suit your personal preference?

And you know that you can't really acquire a top pair D in trade or free agency either, right? At least no more consistently than you can a 1st line forward.

Ryan McDonagh, Devon Toews, Mikhail Sergachev... All top pair Ds that were tradee for by recent Stanley Cup winning teams. Brandon Montour and Pietrangelo (UFA, not traded) might become others this year.

1st line centers? Yeah, that is harder to trade for. Hardly debatable. Eichel? Seguin? Very special cases.

 

[River Meadow]

Between ASP ans Reibacher witch one is the best ?
I Like ASP better but it seems like Reinbacher is up there in HF.
But the Mock draft have ASP ahead

Eyes test - ASP

But you're right, everyone on HF loves Rainbecker.

Because prospects bust all the time, it is not a risk worth taking up too much attention.

Simply put my argument is Habs have a much stronger defence prospect pool (+ Guhle, etc.) than the forward prospect pool. In this draft, at 5, you have very good forward prospect available at 5 who would instantly become our best prospect.


If teams have incomplete information or imprecise ways of gathering this information then it clearly means BPA as perceived by these teams is not correct.

Following that, since no team and no scout is perfect, that means they’ll never be consistently and reliably correct about BPA. It might as well not be a thing.

Teams do draft for need and get it wrong. Teams also draft “BPA” and get it wrong too.

It’s not a magic thing where you say BPA and the BPA reveals himself. Like you say, and we know, scouting is an art and it isn’t very easy.

I simply don’t see the value in picking a D with so many roughly equal or better Fs still available at 5.

Let’s change gears: Why would you pick Reinbacher over Smith?

I agree.

Now...

IF the D available this year, were very close or better than the forwards, I'd have no problem with it tbh, but personally, I am not too impressed.

 

[ginomini]

What should they do, add a 5th PPG forward?

Tampa and Colorado are examples of teams that had a really good defense to supplement their offense.

Tampa had Hedman, Cernak, McDonagh and Sergachev.
Colorado had Makar, Manson, Toews, and Byram.

Actually both Tampa and Colorado won the cup with arguably the best D in the league of their respective year and both won the Conn Smythe (for 1 cup for Tampa).

 

[JT3]

Ryan McDonagh, Devon Toews, Mikhail Sergachev... All top pair Ds that were tradee for by recent Stanley Cup winning teams. Brandon Montour and Pietrangelo (UFA, not traded) might become others this year.

1st line centers? Yeah, that is harder to trade for. Hardly debatable. Eichel? Seguin? Very special cases.

Toews and Sergachev were not top pairing D at the time of being traded for though. My point was that top C and top D are both equally rare to acquire.

 

[ReHabs]

Toews and Sergachev were not top pairing D at the time of being traded for though. My point was that top C and top D are both equally rare to acquire.

I agree. Does anybody reputable think Reinbacher is better than Smith or Benson or any of the top top10 names?

 

[River Meadow]

I agree. Does anybody reputable think Reinbacher is better than Smith or Benson or any of the top top10 names?

BuT He PlAyS AgAInSt MeN

 

[JoelWarlord]

We haven’t had a PPG forward since Kovalev and haven’t drafted PPG forward in like thirty years. Why reach for a RHD if this draft is brimming with high-skill forwards??

Yeah but why reaching at 5 for this specific RHD in a draft like this one?

Because it's not a reach to take Reinbacher over Smith/Benson or any other forward once Michkov/Carlsson are gone (or if Michkov is ruled out). He just had the 2nd best Swiss league draft year season ever after Matthews. He had 22P playing 20-22 minutes a night, while playing responsible defence (not cheating for offence) at a level where Josi had 8P in his draft year. He is an excellent prospect and we are not inherently sacrificing upside relative to the other forwards available beyond Michkov in my opinion, nor is it given that we'll have the opportunity to pick a better D prospect in the future.

We don't necessarily have a glaring need for just "forwards" either, what we need is a true franchise/elite/superstar forward and just because there are 4 of those in this draft doesn't mean the 5th forward taken projects to be one of those types of players too. Caufield, Suzuki, and Dach are better forwards than any young dman in the system as well. For this reason, my hope is Michkov because he is that type of difference-maker, but if he's gone I don't think Smith/Benson are a definitive tier above Reinbacher. Nor do I think we're somehow guaranteed to have access to a better D prospect next year.

They should’ve just taken Nemec last year. What a shame it’d be to feel forced to pick Reinbacher at 5 just because they made a catastrophic mistake in 2022.

No interest in relitigating this but the picks have nothing to do with each other and I don't think they'd feel forced to take Reinbacher at all given we need forwards too. It would also be a shame to feel like we have to take a forward and then have Smith become a playmaking winger while Reinbacher becomes a top pair D.

 

[JT3]

I agree. Does anybody reputable think Reinbacher is better than Smith or Benson or any of the top top10 names?

Does it matter where any public services have him ranked? None of them had Seider at 6 either. It's almost like NHL teams have their own lists...

 

[Jaynki]

Yeah but why reaching at 5 for this specific RHD in a draft like this one?

Rebuilding is far from over. Can almost guarantee there’s gonna be a better RHD available where we will pick next year without reaching for it.

They will look at that. In the Slafkovsky/draft pump promo they posted on youtube, Bobrov said that they looked into the 2024 and 2025 potential draftees and nobody had a profile similar like Slafkovksy, which wasn't the case for the other forward.

If Reinbacher is the pick at 5, they will have to justify their reasoning. Also, i would not put a lot of stock into the information that will leak prior to the draft. A lot of this is bluff and they have every reasons tu pump 4-5 players leading up to the draft.

Last year, a lot of ''information'' leaked both in favour of Wright, and others in favour of Slaf.

It's valid for every team out there.

 

[ReHabs]

Because it's not a reach to take Reinbacher over Smith/Benson or any other forward once Michkov/Carlsson are gone (or if Michkov is ruled out). He just had the 2nd best Swiss league draft year season ever after Matthews. He had 22P playing 20-22 minutes a night, while playing responsible defence (not cheating for offence) at a level where Josi had 8P in his draft year. He is an excellent prospect and we are not inherently sacrificing upside relative to the other forwards available beyond Michkov in my opinion, nor is it given that we'll have the opportunity to pick a better D prospect in the future.

We don't necessarily have a glaring need for just "forwards" either, what we need is a true franchise/elite/superstar forward and just because there are 4 of those in this draft doesn't mean the 5th forward taken projects to be one of those types of players too. Caufield, Suzuki, and Dach are better forwards than any young dman in the system as well. For this reason, my hope is Michkov because he is that type of difference-maker, but if he's gone I don't think Smith/Benson are a definitive tier above Reinbacher. Nor do I think we're somehow guaranteed to have access to a better D prospect next year.


No interest in relitigating this but the picks have nothing to do with each other and I don't think they'd feel forced to take Reinbacher at all given we need forwards too. It would also be a shame to feel like we have to take a forward and then have Smith become a playmaking winger while Reinbacher becomes a top pair D.

Okay in summary you think Reinbacher and Smith and Benson are on the same tier and close enough to each other to warrant direct comparison. That’s fair enough!

It doesn’t seem like the pro/hobby amateur scouting community agrees with your ranking of Reinbacher— or am I missing something?

Smith’s numbers are great too…

Does it matter where any public services have him ranked? None of them had Seider at 6 either. It's almost like NHL teams have their own lists...

So where is Reinbacher is BPA at 5 bluster coming from?

 

[JeffreyLFC]

I agree with the consensus. I am worried about going with Reinbacher not because he is a bad pick but more about the value of the pick. If the draft was like last year, yes take a chance with him but the offensive talent this year a notch above. It would be terrible to see many other picks around us turning into franchise forwards.

I think in the case that we can trade down and maximize the value of the pick, sure let's do that.

I do not think, you will find often many star forwards or top 6 players outside the 1st round in this year draft.

 

[SlafySZN]

delete

 

[Jaynki]

BPA isn’t a real thing. There is no objectivity in such domains. Only an oblivious observer would believe there is such a thing as BPA.

If the Habs have Reinbacher at 5, I’ll cautiously trust them but if it’s a coinflip it makes zero sense to go with the D when you need a skill forward more than anything.

I agree with you that the biggest need is a superstar forward, someone who can carry the team on his back night after night.

I think Bedard(obviously) and Michkov are the blue chip there. I think Fantilli and Carlsson also have this potential but i feel they are still a considerable tier below the other two guys. I don't think it is out of reach for Smith or Benson but i think we are more into a speculative spot there and i think these guys are leaning toward low-tier 1st liner/strong 2nd liner.

I honestly think Reinbacher has a case at 5 and he has 25min/g ++ 1st pair, 1D attributes.

Personally, i would not mind him over Smith or Dvorsky or Benson.

I agree that BPA is not objective at all. Its purely subjective. We should use another term like Preferred Prospects.