HF Habs: 2023 NHL Draft part 2

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DiglettDangles

Registered User
Feb 15, 2020
512
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Montreal
Best bet there is to take Reinbacher.

I'll say it again. FOR THE LOVE OF GOD IF YOURE NOT TAKING MICHKOV TRADE BACK.
I'm not singling you out on purpose, this message is in reply to the many "trade down if we won't pick Michkov at 5".
I'd argue the right thing to do is actually to trade up.

We have a lot of prospects and picks we can live without to convince SJS to drop one spot (anyone not called Suzuki / Caufield / Dach / Slaf / Guhle / Hutson / Engstrom <3 / probably Matheson / one of Mailloux or Barron). They just traded down last year from 11 to 26+34+45 because their depth chart isn't spectacular. We can afford to outrageously lose that trade to secure one of Fantilli / Carlsson / Smith if we believe all 3 are significantly ahead of the options at 5+ excluding Michkov.

The real message though is f'in draft Michkov, ya pansies.
 

NotProkofievian

Registered User
Nov 29, 2011
24,889
25,469
As for a guy who is slept on in this draft, my vote is for Ciernik. Not claiming he's the next Gaborik or anything, but he'll probably go in the 3rd round, and he has the talent of a 1st rounder. He's just a little bit undersized at 5'10 180, but he skates and handles the puck extremely well, he sees the ice well and makes creative plays, and he has a pretty good shot too.

Oh, and he was more productive than Dvorsky in the Allsvenskan. 12 in 25 vs 14 in 38.
 

Goldenhands

Slaf_The_Great
Aug 21, 2016
10,236
13,504
As for a guy who is slept on in this draft, my vote is for Ciernik. Not claiming he's the next Gaborik or anything, but he'll probably go in the 3rd round, and he has the talent of a 1st rounder. He's just a little bit undersized at 5'10 180, but he skates and handles the puck extremely well, he sees the ice well and makes creative plays, and he has a pretty good shot too.

Oh, and he was more productive than Dvorsky in the Allsvenskan. 12 in 25 vs 14 in 38.
Another kid I like is Easton Cowan, just very smart and talented, would be a nice pick somewhere in the 2nd round.
 

Egresch

Registered User
Jul 10, 2022
1,021
1,419
As for a guy who is slept on in this draft, my vote is for Ciernik. Not claiming he's the next Gaborik or anything, but he'll probably go in the 3rd round, and he has the talent of a 1st rounder. He's just a little bit undersized at 5'10 180, but he skates and handles the puck extremely well, he sees the ice well and makes creative plays, and he has a pretty good shot too.

Oh, and he was more productive than Dvorsky in the Allsvenskan. 12 in 25 vs 14 in 38.
Ciernik plays on periphery, brings very little to the team. No material for bottom 6 and he misses top talent to be top 6 in NHL. His competitiveness is questionable, he is not worth 3rd round pick for me. He will be good player in Europe, but I do not see NHL potential with this kid.
 
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WeThreeKings

Demidov is a HAB
Sep 19, 2006
95,442
106,621
Halifax
Pronman has us passing on Michkov and taking Reinbacher

Then Edstrom at 17.

Reinbacher is one of my top choices if they just flat out won't take Michkov

But Edstrom at 17 is way too rich for me and I'd be pretty sad coming out of the 1st round of 2023 that way. If you go Reinbacher at 5, your Florida pick needs to be Hrabal or a highly skilled forward with some warts.
 

FrankMTL

Registered User
Jan 6, 2005
12,520
14,412
Pronman has us passing on Michkov and taking Reinbacher

Then Edstrom at 17.

Reinbacher is one of my top choices if they just flat out won't take Michkov

But Edstrom at 17 is way too rich for me and I'd be pretty sad coming out of the 1st round of 2023 that way. If you go Reinbacher at 5, your Florida pick needs to be Hrabal or a highly skilled forward with some warts.

I have to say that I'd be super disappointed with that draft if it shakes out that way.
 

waitin425

Registered User
Jan 10, 2009
8,132
12,219
Canada
I know size isn't everything, but I had a dream last night that we took Carlsson and he was everything bit as advertised. We also managed to trade Florida pick and the Avs 2nd next year for PLD.

Imagine for a second....

Dach (6'4) - Suzuki (5'11) - Caufield (5'7)
Carlsson (6'3) - PLD (6'3) - Slaf (6'4)

That second line man. Mountain men out there.
 
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Gaylord Q Tinkledink

Registered User
Apr 29, 2018
33,292
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I'm not singling you out on purpose, this message is in reply to the many "trade down if we won't pick Michkov at 5".
I'd argue the right thing to do is actually to trade up.

We have a lot of prospects and picks we can live without to convince SJS to drop one spot (anyone not called Suzuki / Caufield / Dach / Slaf / Guhle / Hutson / Engstrom <3 / probably Matheson / one of Mailloux or Barron). They just traded down last year from 11 to 26+34+45 because their depth chart isn't spectacular. We can afford to outrageously lose that trade to secure one of Fantilli / Carlsson / Smith if we believe all 3 are significantly ahead of the options at 5+ excluding Michkov.

The real message though is f'in draft Michkov, ya pansies.
I'm fine with that, too.

If the Sharks want Michkov let's say, then trade up to get Carlsson/Smith

I just don't want the Habs to stand pat a d draft Barlow, Reinbacher, Dvorsky, Wood, Benson, whomever when you can trade back 3, 4 spots and get, potentially another 1st AND still get the player that the team wants that's available at 5.
 

SOLR

Registered User
Jun 4, 2006
13,248
6,803
Toronto / North York
I'm fine with that, too.

If the Sharks want Michkov let's say, then trade up to get Carlsson/Smith

I just don't want the Habs to stand pat a d draft Barlow, Reinbacher, Dvorsky, Wood, Benson, whomever when you can trade back 3, 4 spots and get, potentially another 1st AND still get the player that the team wants that's available at 5.

Swap with Arizona 5 and 28 for 6 and 12. Reinbacher and Yager would be something of substance. And then take a goalie with 37.

If that happens, we can't go get Dubois, we need to tank another year. We still wouldn't have an elite forward. 2024 would be necessary to shore up "non-elite deep team" - maybe we get lucky in the lottery this time around. Celebrini/Eiserman are stars in the making.
 
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Jaynki

Registered User
Feb 3, 2014
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I think a 5th overall is worth more than a dollar and Michkov is not 3x as good as the next best player is he? Hopefully after combine and Bobrov's connections they find out the real deal...if he is 100% coming in 3 years I'm down.
Even if he is like just 15% coming in 3 years, those are sufficient odds to take him. I don't know the data, but it has been over 30 years since Montreal has been able to take a player of his stature despite winning 2x 3rd overall and 1x 1st overall.

In term of asymmetrical betting,

The odds of him coming don't need to be high to take him. His level of talent and the rarity for a franchise to draft a player of his stature justify his selection in itself.

The way i see it, instead of 3x times better than the next player is, it was simply to illustrate the concept of asymmetrical betting in the game of heads or tail

Michkov is better than 60% of the last ten 1st overall. So you have, AT BEST, if you finish last, 18% chance of getting a player that is not even as good as Michkov.

On the other hand, the Dvorsky, Reinbacher, Leonard, Benson, they are always available, in bunches, every draft. (Gauthier, Savoie, Jiricek in 2022 for example). You can finish 5th last, you are almost guaranteed a player of their stature.

Michkov is an asymetrical opportunity, especially at 5.

Not watching ANY Michkov highlights, too scared to get my heart broken, you just never know with this organization
They will get him if he is available. Hughes is savvy. He is always taking in terms of potential risk to reward. They know that they might never be able to take a player of his stature in their reign, in fact, they have not been able to take a better player than Michkov at 1st overall last year. No way they skip this opportunity for someone like Leonard or Dvorsky.
 

Sam de Mtl

Registered User
Oct 11, 2021
1,370
2,461
How much culture did the Habs build with those 4.5 wins that’s worth losing out on Bedard?

I doubt it was worth it…
Easy with hindsight. It could easily have been a position below us that won and then we could have claimed we should have won some more.

Chicago had more or less 3% more chances than us to win, it was negligible.

But I think a lot of you folks are being disingenuous about the whole thing, because I trust that you all are smarter than the things you are saying.
 

WinterLion

Registered User
Oct 1, 2017
5,397
5,473
Easy with hindsight. It could easily have been a position below us that won and then we could have claimed we should have won some more.

Chicago had more or less 3% more chances than us to win, it was negligible.

But I think a lot of you folks are being disingenuous about the whole thing, because I trust that you all are smarter than the things you are saying.

Wait until we all start second guessing the player we draft... ;)
 

Hins77

Registered User
Apr 2, 2013
4,051
3,710
Kent Hugues best friend GM is Bill Guerin. Pretty sure Guerin isnt unhappy to have Kaprizov on his team, even if it he came late. Guerin will probably tell him to Hugues. Just get it and work for the transfer later.
 

Doublechin

Registered User
Jun 23, 2013
3,249
1,453
Swap with Arizona 5 and 28 for 6 and 12. Reinbacher and Yager would be something of substance. And then take a goalie with 37.

If that happens, we can't go get Dubois, we need to tank another year. We still wouldn't have an elite forward. 2024 would be necessary to shore up "non-elite deep team" - maybe we get lucky in the lottery this time around. Celebrini/Eiserman are stars in the making.
If we kept 17, maybe they would have accepted but only if they wanted Michkov badly, at 29 it ain't happening
 

Jaynki

Registered User
Feb 3, 2014
5,870
6,049
Would you guys rather have a guaranteed 10 000$

Or a 5% chance to get 1 Millions, if you spend 10 000$?

Many of us sissies would take the first option but the real big, asymetrical opportunity is the 2nd option.
 
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