HF Habs: 2023 NHL Draft part 2

[ReHabs]

It's grit, not strength. Re: young Gallagher.



We do, but that doesn't seem to be readily available at 5 if we are not ready to pick Michkov (I am, not sure that they are), unless we trade down and take 2 shots at it from a big lower.

At 5OA there will be at least one player who has 'protagonist forward' upside. I hope the Habs pick him.

Suzuki and Caufiled are paid very well but won't be leading figures on a SC team. It's the reason why we had to tank and will continue to need to tank unless we nail this pick this year. We need PPG players for heaven's sake. I'd rather bet that Smith becomes a PPG player than Leonard.

You're begging the question.

It's also much harder for the pure-skill guys to rack up points against NHL-level defenders too. Doubly-so when their skating isn't elite.

This is obviously true! But a player who has the instincts and vision and IQ to solve defences can translate that into NHL production more readily than one who leverages his physicality and grit. Of course there are some point producers who never manage to translate that into NHL production but those are busts and there are always going to be busts.

 

[Garbageyuk]

Which reports are you referring to? The piece in the Athletic where they interviewed actual professional executives and scouts in the NHL was nearly universal in praise for Michkov.

The one that confirms that there are indeed concerns with him that don’t have anything to do with him being Russian. He’s not some slam dunk pick, sure fire superstar like the fanboys here would have you believe.

 

[ReHabs]

The one that confirms that there are indeed concerns with him that don’t have anything to do with him being Russian. He’s not some slam dunk pick, sure fire superstar like the fanboys here would have you believe.

Which one, can you link to it? I'd love to read some further analysis on this prospect.

 

[JT3]

In this board when people think of two way game, they automatically think about Philip Danault. Leonard is not Danault.

If you watch Leonard play, you realize that he has just as much offensive skill as the other two. He moves the puck quickly, freezes and protects the puck, makes difficult passes, dangle one on one, shoot in any type of situation, create at high speed, create passing lanes thanks to his agility. He can do it all at a high level.

As for Wright, the biggest knock on him was his lack of physical implication. He relied too much on his anticipation, didn't engage along the boards as much as he should've, thus limiting his impact in the game. It's not his defensive implication that hindered him, it's his passive style.

A lot of the time, Leonard made the play that allowed his teammates to generate a high scoring chance. He was the facilitator on that line, but his ability to create chances for himself out of nothing is what'll make him a high pick. Otherwise he'd be another Dvorsky/Wright.

People are equating good two-way/grit with low skill level when it comes to Leonard and that's flat out false. He has a high skill level and is just an all around better player than Smith/Perrault when you take into account every other aspect outside of pure offense.

My concern with Smith is he ends up like a Drouin because he simply will not engage in any battles, or pay the price to get to the net consistently. And Drouin was a better skater than Smith is as well. Obviously Drouin had some mental issues, and I'm not saying that Smith will end up as Drouin either, but the way he plays does give me some reason to be concerned about how it will translate to the pros.

 

[SannywithoutCompy]

Hes actually very good defensively, probably the 2nd best defensive D in the draft. Its his offensive toolkit that sucks. Aside from good hands, he doesnt have anything potent. His shot sucks, his selection is even worse, his playmaking isnt good and he cant get his shot through.

I think theres a future NHL D in there, but Im seeing Zadorov without the grit.

I should clarify - his zone defense his fine, but he has a bad tendency to give up the zone easily on the rush which will have to be coached - if he's coachable it'll be an easy fix though.

 

[Habnot]

Which one, can you link to it? I'd love to read some further analysis on this prospect.

“I would let someone else pick him. Between his skating, frame, one-way play and his demeanor there’s too much risk for me at the highest points of the draft before you get into the obvious stuff with his contract and the war.”

 

[NotProkofievian]

I should clarify - his zone defense his fine, but he has a bad tendency to give up the zone easily on the rush which will have to be coached - if he's coachable it'll be an easy fix though.

What? He's a nightmare to go against entering the zone.

 

[Twisted Sinister]

Which one, can you link to it? I'd love to read some further analysis on this prospect.

There's a post where 1/4 executives had concerns with his play while 3 other had glowing praise. Apparently, that's sufficiently damning.

I'll try to find it

EDIT:
It's from the Athletic.

Here's a link to the artice:

NHL Draft confidential: What scouts and executives think of Bedard, Michkov and more

Who should go No. 2? Where will Michkov land? Here's what Corey Pronman is hearing about the top prospects ahead of the 2023 NHL Draft.

theathletic.com

Here's the part in question:
This leads us to the real debate at the top of the draft: Matvei Michkov. How good is he? Where would you take him?

Michkov is the story of the 2023 NHL Draft. He’s a player who gets sky-high grades in skill and hockey sense and has put up huge numbers for years, but the winger is signed in the KHL through the end of the 2025-26 KHL season with SKA St. Petersburg.

Executive 1: “For me, he would absolutely be in the conversation with the No. 2 pick. He’s that good.”

Executive 2: “If I got my ownership’s approval, I’m taking him as high as No. 3 and possibly even No. 2.”

Executive 3: “I would let someone else pick him. Between his skating, frame, one-way play and his demeanor there’s too much risk for me at the highest points of the draft before you get into the obvious stuff with his contract and the war.”

Executive 4: “He’s a hockey genius. He’s the second-best player in the draft, and all things being equal, could push Bedard as a pure player. I get balancing the risks versus taking a very good center but once those guys are gone I would take Michkov.”

 

[KevSkillz4]

If it's Leonard, people need to understand that he is a very skilled forward. Everyone who likes Benson, should like the offensive ability of Leonard aswell. This guy have great offensive potential at NHL level. Add his work ethic, every team need that type of player for playoff time.

 

[SOLR]

At 5OA there will be at least one player who has 'protagonist forward' upside. I hope the Habs pick him.

Suzuki and Caufiled are paid very well but won't be leading figures on a SC team. It's the reason why we had to tank and will continue to need to tank unless we nail this pick this year. We need PPG players for heaven's sake. I'd rather bet that Smith becomes a PPG player than Leonard.

You do realize that even if we picked Wayne Gretzky, that player would not arrive next year and probably not for a few years. We'll continue to tank, there is not really a way out of this unless the younglings improve. And that begins with Suzuki and Caufield.

 

[JAVO16]

Leonard didn't score a lot less than his linemates as soon as the competition became harder Suddenly his grit made him the most important part of that line. Look at the U18 stats....20, 18, 17 pts.

Does anyone have the decomposition of the Smith/Leonard/Perreault statline against NCAA competition this year ?

 

[SannywithoutCompy]

What? He's a nightmare to go against entering the zone.

Not in the games I've seen. Again, should be pretty coachable but I've seen him backed up to the top of the circle by the time the opponent hits the blue line repeatedly.

 

[ReHabs]

People are equating good two-way/grit with low skill level when it comes to Leonard and that's flat out false. He has a high skill level and is just an all around better player than Smith/Perrault when you take into account every other aspect outside of pure offense.

My concern with Smith is he ends up like a Drouin because he simply will not engage in any battles, or pay the price to get to the net consistently. And Drouin was a better skater than Smith is as well. Obviously Drouin had some mental issues, and I'm not saying that Smith will end up as Drouin either, but the way he plays does give me some reason to be concerned about how it will translate to the pros.

Similarly to what @JoelWarlord said, it could be that their coach asked Smith to do the playmaking work and Leonard to do the dirty work. It doesn't mean Smith is incapable of getting hit or (as you say) has mental issues.

It's not fair to give the benefit of the doubt to Leonard who scored 25% fewer points than Smith but not do the same for Smith. I've argued above why physicality is arguably more difficult to translate to NHL success but I can disagree on that point.

“I would let someone else pick him. Between his skating, frame, one-way play and his demeanor there’s too much risk for me at the highest points of the draft before you get into the obvious stuff with his contract and the war.”

That's one comment out of how many that were full of praise? How can you pick out one and not the other three -- that's not fair on its face. @Garbageyuk

You do realize that even if we picked Wayne Gretzky, that player would not arrive next year and probably not for a few years. We'll continue to tank, there is not really a way out of this unless the younglings improve. And that begins with Suzuki and Caufield.

The Habs need to pick a player who has higher upside than Suzuki and Caufield, I don't know how else to express this notion. They will surely not be 'competing' next season but they if there are fewer man-games lost, more experienced on D, and have a healthy Caufield and improved Slafkovsky and Montemault I doubt the Habs will draft top5.

So how else can you get PPG forwards? Any ideas?

Does anyone have the decomposition of the Smith/Leonard/Perreault statline against NCAA competition this year ?

I tried looking for this too. I think Elite-Prospects would have a game-by-game breakdown but you need to pay for it.

 

[NotProkofievian]

Not in the games I've seen. Again, should be pretty coachable but I've seen him backed up to the top of the circle by the time the opponent hits the blue line repeatedly.

I'll just leave this here for people to make up their own minds, but watching this he absolutely smothers rush after rush. Maybe he makes a few mistakes here and there, I honestly don't remember, but for the most part, like Simon says here many times ''ça ne passe pas.''

 

[Vachon23]

If it's Leonard, people need to understand that he is a very skilled forward. Everyone who likes Benson, should like the offensive ability of Leonard aswell. This guy have great offensive potential at NHL level. Add his work ethic, every team need that type of player for playoff time.

Not really the same type of player though

But yes Leonard skills set is underrated by many that probably assume that he's not skills because of his style of play

Zach Benson remain the most underrated player of the top 10-15 though, he should 100% be in the conversation for that pick.

 

[JoelWarlord]

-We're prioritizing 2-way play and intangibles over offense again

It's not an excuse so much as just outlining the different roles on that line. There's one puck to split between three forwards on a line, and somebody needs to forecheck. The coaches made the obvious straightforward decision to have Leonard do it instead of Perreault and Smith because he's 30 & 20 pounds heavier than them, and was willing & able to take on that role. I do think Smith is a better playmaker but I don't think that means it's about prioritizing two-way play or intangibles as I don't think Leonard is fundamentally less "skilled" than Smith (or Benson, or any non-Michkov alternative we're likely to have available at 5). It's not like the guy didn't make plays either, he still had 43A in 57 games and 9A in 7 games at the U18s, that's quite strong given he was playing as more of a finisher and forechecker and scored 51 goals + 8 at the U18s too.

-If we do take Leonard, where are we getting our offense from? Caufield by himself? Is it by committee again? Because that's worked out so well for us over 30 years.

to keep it brief, I think a team like the Habs needs the player picked at 5OA to do the "Will Smith" job more than we need our 5OA to do the "Ryan Leonard" job.

I'll respond to these two parts together as you're both fundamentally getting at the same thing. I agree with the position that the Habs need a game-breaking offensive talent, but I think it's a false dichotomy in the Leonard discussion because Michkov is the only guy that's meaningfully "better" as a projectable offensive talent IMO. That's a discussion that has been beaten to death but obviously isn't going to come down to purely on-ice factors, and the three of us agree that Michkov is the clear most talented player likely to be available. For the record, Michkov is absolutely my preference at 5 and I am 100% on board with taking him based on the public info for the ultra high skill level & overall upside.

However, if we're not taking Michkov for whatever reason, I think this ceases to be much of a consideration as I don't think Leonard is meaningfully down on "skill" relative to other players we'd consider at 5. Smith is a better playmaker but I'm not sure he's the better overall player, or some transcendental ultra-skill guy (and he likely won't be available anyway), and otherwise we'd be looking at maybe Benson for someone who's a better playmaker. I really like Benson too and I'm fully on board if he's the pick, but I don't think he's clearly a tier of skill better than Leonard unless we're penciling in Benson's 95th percentile outcome where he becomes Marchand.

For me Leonard is every bit as skilled as anyone we'd be considering at 5 (including Smith) aside from Michkov, the hands, passing, and shot are just really intriguing combined with his mobility, aggressive style, and physical play (I don't see him like crushing guys in the NHL at 6'0 and 200lbs obviously but he's plenty big enough to create separation to use his hands and cause problems for defenders).

I also don't think taking Leonard necessarily means we'll have to do offence by committee, we'd just have a more conventional "classic" top 6 instead of the Toronto style stars and scrubs model or the Kraken/2021 Habs "three 2nd lines and a 3rd line as your fourth" model. Suzuki/Caufield and Dach/Leonard would probably form the basis of two duos and the third winger on each line would vary. I think it's entirely plausible they become an effective top 6 and we'd have the flexibility to go out and acquire big names when they become available as we'd have so much stylistic diversity in that top 6 to mix and match players to find the right fit.

 

[JT3]

Similarly to what @JoelWarlord said, it could be that their coach asked Smith to do the playmaking work and Leonard to do the dirty work. It doesn't mean Smith is incapable of getting hit or (as you say) has mental issues.

It's not fair to give the benefit of the doubt to Leonard who scored 25% fewer points than Smith but not do the same for Smith. I've argued above why physicality is arguably more difficult to translate to NHL success but I can disagree on that point.

Well yeah, obviously they tasked Smith to play an offensive role as that's what he excels it. At no point did I say that Smith is 'incapable of getting hit' or that he has mental issues (I pretty clearly said that about Drouin to explain that is part of why he failed as a player which would not apply to Smith). What I said that was that Smith does not battle or pay the price to go the dirty areas, and his skating is average at best, which are reasons why I think there is some potential issues translating his game to the big leagues. But being tasked to 'do the playmaking work' should not equate to the coach telling Smith not to get involved in board battles or going to the net, it reads to me as though that's what your implying and it seems absolutely asinine to me that the coaching staff of the USNDTP would ever teach their players to play that way.

And what benefit of doubt am I giving to Leonard? Having more points doesn't automatically mean that someone is a better player. Smith is a better offensive player and yes, he put up more points. But Leonard is better in every other aspect: defense, skating, physicality, grit, etc, while still being supremely skilled, and IMO, allowing Perrault and Smith to play the way they did by doing all the dirty work on that line and playing the defacto 'C' position. I think that his package translates really well to production in the NHL, whereas I compared Smith to Drouin as I feel that they have similar problems that may prevent his game from translating.

Regarding your point on Leonard and his physicality translating, I think you're misunderstanding the way he plays. While he can throw the big hit here and there, he's not a Tom Wilson or Josh Anderson chasing hits around the ice. He's a guy that plays with pace at all times, on the forecheck, on defense, in the neutral zone. He is always on you. He uses his stocky frame to win board battles and park himself around the net. Guys with builds like him are incredibly hard to move, look at Crosby, nobody would mistake him for a giant but his lower body is so damn jacked that he wins his battles 8 times out of 10 and can protect the puck like nobody's business because he's so damn hard to move. That's the 'physicality' of Leonard that will translate. It's not about him blowing guys up.

 

[SlafySZN]

Ehh, to say anyone was playing a boatload of defense on that team is stretching it...

But if I go with what you're saying, I'd have a few comments:

-We're prioritizing 2-way play and intangibles over offense again

-One of the knocks on Shane Wright last year was that his offensive production had plateaued, even though he was doing everything for a horrible Kingston Frontenacs team... Playing offense, defense, and even pretty much having to be the puck moving defenseman as well with their weird-ass structure. Are we to take it that defensive responsibilities are an excuse for lower production?

-If we do take Leonard, where are we getting our offense from? Caufield by himself? Is it by committee again? Because that's worked out so well for us over 30 years.

-Canadiens need to put on their big boy pants and draft talent. Intangibles and 2-way play are a lot easier to acquire through means other than the draft.

Leonard’s game haven’t plateaued, though. He got better and better during the season.

 

[Twisted Sinister]

If it's Leonard, people need to understand that he is a very skilled forward. Everyone who likes Benson, should like the offensive ability of Leonard aswell. This guy have great offensive potential at NHL level. Add his work ethic, every team need that type of player for playoff time.

I don't see it, personally. There are a lot of red flags for me.

-He plays a power game at a size that isn't overwhelming. I don't know how that will translate against NHL defensemen.

-He plays on the Globetrotters line. He is the least productive guy on that line. Now, you can say that he had to be the defensive/2-way guy on that line, but hearing that doesn't fill me with excitement.

-Many of his skills are good, but nothing is elite. In my opinion, guys with elite skills translate better to the NHL offensively than Jacks of All Trades. Like some other posters, I'm definitely getting the Oshie shudders.

Leonard’s game haven’t plateaued, though. He got better and better during the season.

This is true.

 

[SlafySZN]

This is true.

So he is more on a upward trajectory, i’m not worried at all about Leonard’s offensive game. I think if he’s not the guy we pick, next year we’ll watch him in college and see an even better player than he is now and beat ourselves up about it.

 

[Twisted Sinister]

So he is more on a upward trajectory, i’m not worried at all about Leonard’s offensive game. I think if he’s not the guy we pick, next year we’ll watch him in college and see an even better player than he is now and beat ourselves up about it.

Even if Leonard is good, if we pick Michkov, we'll have nothing to beat ourselves up over, trust me.

 

[Jack Skellington]

Oshie was my comparison for him but it wasn’t meant to be an insult. Oshie has a Stanley Cup ring off of a 21 pts in 24 game performance and he’s an absolute tank with underrated skills. You would hope for more durability with Leonard but if people are scared about that with Benson they should be even more so with Leonard. I’ve seen him get rocked a few times against even USHL competition and he invites the rough stuff alot more than Benson who is more of a waterbug.

 

[Kaladin]

How does Benson compare to a Marchessault? You know the 5'9 guy currently ripping it up in the playoffs...

 

[HabsForHire]

Even if Leonard is good, if we pick Michkov, we'll have nothing to beat ourselves up over, trust me.

We will if he never comes over

 

[Jack Skellington]

We will if he never comes over

Why does this keep being said? It has literally never happened with a top prospect. There is zero incentive for him to stay in Russia or even for Russia to want him to stay. They want him to come over and attempt to outdo Bedard like Ovechkin with Crosby. You may have to wait an extra season than you would with a Leonard or Reinbacher and you won’t have hands on control of their development, so that may be big for some GMs. Michkov will absolutely be here or we will have far bigger problems than hockey.