HF Habs: 2023 NHL Draft part 2

[JoelWarlord]

I don't find this argument about Leonard's goal:assist ratio very convincing. Bedard has 71G to 72A. Fantilli 30G to 35A. Michkov 9G to 11A. No, I am not comparing him to those players except to say that good goal-scorers often score lots of goals as a percentage of their point totals as prospects. That can be a red flag or a place to dig deeper if it's a player like Kaliyev or even Caufield where the only way they can succeed in the NHL is as a sniper and you need to determine if that's projectable, but Leonard is visibly a much more well-rounded player.

Leonard scored a lot less than his linemates. This is in the Harlem Globetrotters style league in which they play, no less. This is a moderately sized though undeniable red flag.

I don't think it's an undeniable red flag, or even a red flag at all. I just don't think it follows to say that because he had fewer assists than his linemates, a skill deficit inherently exists. In their draft years, Jonathan Drouin outscored Nathan MacKinnon by 30 points as linemates, but there was never any question about who was going #1 from that line. You specifically said "if his playmaking ability is that much worse than his peers" which I think is a very strong claim to make when the evidence is that he racked up fewer assists than his linemates. There's only one puck on the ice, by definition one guy is going to have the fewest assists on every line, and I don't agree with the framing of lowest point totals = 3rd place on a line of 3 players, particularly with the specifics of how these three players were used.

The NTDP coaches put Smith, Perreault, and Leonard in roles that would enable them and their line to succeed. It seems blatantly obvious to me that their coaches would choose to have Leonard playing in a role focused on forechecking, puck retrieval, and shooting while the other two play more of a traditional "soft" playmaking/finesse style (I don't say that as a criticism of Smith or Perreault either, just as a neutral descriptor of their roles on that line). That does not mean the other two are necessarily more skilled, or that Leonard is only half as good a playmaker as the other two.

Of course Smith and probably Perreault are better as pure passers than Leonard, but their assist totals don't mean some vast chasm exists, or that it's a red flag. Playmaking is those two players' bread and butter, I would hope they're better pure passers than Leonard as otherwise they wouldn't be 1st round talents. Nonetheless, we have tons of examples of Leonard making exceptional passes and smart plays, this isn't a situation where a guy is clearly a pure sniper that hangs around looking for the perfect shot. There are just specific jobs that somebody has to do for a hockey team/line to be successful, and they gave those jobs to Leonard instead of his linemates who are 20 pounds lighter and less suited to that role, while putting the other two players in roles that would enable them to succeed, and which inherently allow those two to rack up more assists. That just seems like straightforward coaching to me, there's no reason to have Will Smith digging in the corners when you have Leonard to do that instead.

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

I think almost everyone wants Michkov in a vacuum. Problem is, the world exists and there are very real geopolitical risks that are difficult to measure. I don't know the answer to any of them, but to pretend they're not there is a bit naive.

You also have to figure the external situation is being weaponized by teams to scare off suitors in the draft so he may fall. In other words, it's probably being overblown.

 

[Harry Kakalovich]

You also have to figure the external situation is being weaponized by teams to scare off suitors in the draft so he may fall. In other words, it's probably being overblown.

I think it's more the case that the geopolitics are largely being ignored by people focusing on hockey, which has nothing to do with the larger situation. Your comment is a case in point. NHL GMs have nothing to do with the situation.

 

[ryan callahan]

He is more skilled but not better as a prospect IMO. They both follow a power forward game and Brady is 6'4 while Leonard is a touch below 6' which makes a considerable difference for this game style. I will say though that Leonard's skating is also a clear cut better compared to Brady's draft year, but Brady has gotten significantly better in that department.

Of course I can't see in the future, but I see Leonard more of a TJ Oshie than a Brady Tkachuk.

Brady Tkachuk is an awful skater. Don't know what player you were watching.

 

[Vachon23]

Hes actually very good defensively, probably the 2nd best defensive D in the draft. Its his offensive toolkit that sucks. Aside from good hands, he doesnt have anything potent. His shot sucks, his selection is even worse, his playmaking isnt good and he cant get his shot through.

I think theres a future NHL D in there, but Im seeing Zadorov without the grit.

If he can put it all together, I can see him being a sort of Mattias Ekholm but that his highest celling. Chance are higher that he becomes a Zadorov

 

[Twisted Sinister]

Missed 6 games, didn't start the year on that line and is heavily implicated defensively. Moreso than his own centre. I love Smith's offensive potential, but Leonard was the C on that line.

He doesn't just play a two way game, he plays a dominant two way game. Both offense and defense. He is everywhere.

Ehh, to say anyone was playing a boatload of defense on that team is stretching it...

But if I go with what you're saying, I'd have a few comments:

-We're prioritizing 2-way play and intangibles over offense again

-One of the knocks on Shane Wright last year was that his offensive production had plateaued, even though he was doing everything for a horrible Kingston Frontenacs team... Playing offense, defense, and even pretty much having to be the puck moving defenseman as well with their weird-ass structure. Are we to take it that defensive responsibilities are an excuse for lower production?

-If we do take Leonard, where are we getting our offense from? Caufield by himself? Is it by committee again? Because that's worked out so well for us over 30 years.

-Canadiens need to put on their big boy pants and draft talent. Intangibles and 2-way play are a lot easier to acquire through means other than the draft.

 

[Vachon23]

Would be funny on draft day if ANA or SJ draft Michkov instead of Fantilli or Smith. All the people tearing each other on a false dilemma.

That would be the best case scenario for the Habs to be honest !

Won't have to deal with passing on Michkov, it would give us a really talented foward and we could even steal the show and try to move up to grab Adam Fantilli (really unlikely though)

 

[The Great Weal]

Brady Tkachuk is an awful skater. Don't know what player you were watching.

I was watching Sens games of the past season, not his rookie year. He's improved significantly and most people who watch him often agree.

 

[Revansky]

That would be the best case scenario for the Habs to be honest !

Won't have to deal with passing on Michkov, it would give us a really talented foward and we could even steal the show and try to move up to grab Adam Fantilli (really unlikely though)

Fantilli and Carlsson would be the best scenario that's for sure, both big C with a high floor and certainty. And yeah would make for an easier couple of years on the board if we don't pass on Michkov.

 

[SOLR]

Leonard scored a lot less than his linemates. This is in the Harlem Globetrotters style league in which they play, no less. This is a moderately sized though undeniable red flag. Remember, we are picking at 5, not 15.

Relative to his NHL opponents to come, he will not have as relatively strong and skilled linemates as he had in this past season. This is something we have to consider for all these prospects — how they play and what they manage to do has to be weighed against the relative quality of their opponents. I think someone who is third place on his line of three players, and who does not have a history of playing another way, shows gaps in his resume that preclude him from being the 5th pick in the 2023 draft.

It’s not like his size is a difference maker either, is it?

Chris Kunitz was a good linemate for Crosby too, and once upon a time he even got a call up to the Olympics. He has many successes in his career. You don’t pick Kunitz or TJ Oshie at 5OA when you lack protagonist, productive, impact players for them to play with.

On another note, ‘playmaking’ doesn’t mean passing and racking assists. It means making good plays, making good reads (as MSL insists), and generally knowing what to do on the ice. Against relatively stronger opposition only good playmakers will succeed. You cannot play a bulldozer or physical game in the NHL night after night, you have to make the right reads at the right time.

Last note, I hate to be a prick about this but starting responses with a flippant dismissal (“total nonsense.”) is not conducive to a constructive argument. I put forth a thesis, we can argue about it and bring up new and different perspectives as much as we want. That’s fun. Totally blow off someone’s argument and then still putting up a response is like saying you want to have the final word in a discussion that’s not even yet taken place.

Leonard didn't score a lot less than his linemates as soon as the competition became harder Suddenly his grit made him the most important part of that line. Look at the U18 stats....20, 18, 17 pts.

"Relative to his NHL opponents to come, he will not have as relatively strong and skilled linemates as he had in this past season."

That's a view over-reliant on what he gets from his teammates vs. what he brings to the table.

"It’s not like his size is a difference maker either, is it?"

Is grit is, no one talked about size.

" You don’t pick Kunitz or TJ Oshie at 5OA when you lack protagonist, productive, impact players for them to play with."

Suzuki and Caufield need a winger like that, this is the only reason you get Leonard ahead of others players Suzuki and Caufield are supposed to be our 2 protagonists and they need a core grit protagonist who can play on a 1st line. That player is a lot rarer than you keep suggesting. "You don't..." isn't really much of an argument. You do if you are missing a key ingredient that will optimize all your ingredients. The don't is the nonsense. We don't have a 15-20th overall pick, the option is not on the table. Wishing for us to pick that player in the 2nd round is wishful thinking. Sure Kidney might turn in that player, or... we could be like Edmonton still looking for it after 5 years.

I'm not advocating for Leonard, I'm just starting the case for him.

"On another note, ‘playmaking’ doesn’t mean passing and racking assists."

You can't both complain about the direct nature of my post and suggest that I don't know what playmaking is.

 

[Playmaker09]

Missed 6 games, didn't start the year on that line and is heavily implicated defensively. Moreso than his own centre. I love Smith's offensive potential, but Leonard was the C on that line.

He doesn't just play a two way game, he plays a dominant two way game. Both offense and defense. He is everywhere.

High, very high hockey IQ.

He also looked very good in the handful of games with Moore as his center (as well as on the PK year round).

 

[ReHabs]

I don't find this argument about Leonard's goal:assist ratio very convincing. Bedard has 71G to 72A. Fantilli 30G to 35A. Michkov 9G to 11A. No, I am not comparing him to those players except to say that good goal-scorers often score lots of goals as a percentage of their point totals as prospects. That can be a red flag or a place to dig deeper if it's a player like Kaliyev or even Caufield where the only way they can succeed in the NHL is as a sniper and you need to determine if that's projectable, but Leonard is visibly a much more well-rounded player.

I don't think it's an undeniable red flag, or even a red flag at all. I just don't think it follows to say that because he had fewer assists than his linemates, a skill deficit inherently exists. In their draft years, Jonathan Drouin outscored Nathan MacKinnon by 30 points as linemates, but there was never any question about who was going #1 from that line. You specifically said "if his playmaking ability is that much worse than his peers" which I think is a very strong claim to make when the evidence is that he racked up fewer assists than his linemates. There's only one puck on the ice, by definition one guy is going to have the fewest assists on every line, and I don't agree with the framing of lowest point totals = 3rd place on a line of 3 players, particularly with the specifics of how these three players were used.

The NTDP coaches put Smith, Perreault, and Leonard in roles that would enable them and their line to succeed. It seems blatantly obvious to me that their coaches would choose to have Leonard playing in a role focused on forechecking, puck retrieval, and shooting while the other two play more of a traditional "soft" playmaking/finesse style (I don't say that as a criticism of Smith or Perreault either, just as a neutral descriptor of their roles on that line). That does not mean the other two are necessarily more skilled, or that Leonard is only half as good a playmaker as the other two.

Of course Smith and probably Perreault are better as pure passers than Leonard, but their assist totals don't mean some vast chasm exists, or that it's a red flag. Playmaking is those two players' bread and butter, I would hope they're better pure passers than Leonard as otherwise they wouldn't be 1st round talents. Nonetheless, we have tons of examples of Leonard making exceptional passes and smart plays, this isn't a situation where a guy is clearly a pure sniper that hangs around looking for the perfect shot. There are just specific jobs that somebody has to do for a hockey team/line to be successful, and they gave those jobs to Leonard instead of his linemates who are 20 pounds lighter and less suited to that role, while putting the other two players in roles that would enable them to succeed, and which inherently allow those two to rack up more assists. That just seems like straightforward coaching to me, there's no reason to have Will Smith digging in the corners when you have Leonard to do that instead.

Leonard got 30 fewer points than his linemates (c. 25% fewer). It's simply ONE aspect to explore... to keep it brief, I think a team like the Habs needs the player picked at 5OA to do the "Will Smith" job more than we need our 5OA to do the "Ryan Leonard" job.

I did specifically say "if..." as a conditional, I don't know how good his playmaking is relative to his peers -- I don't have an eye and highlight reels do nothing for me but I've been devouring them (I think Smith's clips are much more impressive, personally) -- but my argument was even more simple: it's harder to score in the NHL than elsewhere and the relative quality gap of a star prospect versus his opponents is much smaller in the NHL than elsewhere.

It's worth analysing Leonard-the-playmaker specifically so I wonder if anybody's done any specific look at Leonard-the-playmaker and what they came up with. Maybe passing and playmaking really is in his game? Maybe it isn't? If it isn't, then that's a DND at 5OA for me. Keep in mind for the USNTDP Jrs he had 20 in 17 (ranked 12th in total points) while Perreault had 45 in 23 (1st) and Smith had 42 in 20 (3rd). It just doesn't look like the profile of a 5OA in the 2023 draft to me. I made a similar argument against Dvorsky. Good prospect, interesting prospect, but for the Habs with the 5OA... eh. At this point I just wish Smith was available at 5OA.

 

[ReHabs]

Suzuki and Caufield need a winger like that, this is the only reason you get Leonard ahead of others players Suzuki and Caufield are supposed to be our 2 protagonists and they need a core grit protagonist who can play on a 1st line. That player is a lot rarer than you keep suggesting. "You don't..." isn't really much of an argument. You do if you are missing a key ingredient that will optimize all your ingredients. The don't is the nonsense. We don't have a 15-20th overall pick, the option is not on the table. Wishing for us to pick that player in the 2nd round is wishful thinking. Sure Kidney might turn in that player, or... we could be like Edmonton still looking for it after 5 years.

Neither Suzuki or Caufield are independently good enough that we should use the 5OA to draft someone to compliment them. Sorry, no. We need someone who can be better than Suzuki and Caufield.

 

[Gainesvillain]

This is one of my concerns. Why was he the least productive player on the Globetrotters line?

Least productive? I really don't think so. Lower point totals yes, but Leonard did all the heavy lifting on that line and was arguably its best player. Worked the hardest in the defensive zone....won puck battles galore along the boards...drove the puck up ice effectively, created time and space for Smith, made big hits, created havoc in front of the opposing goalie.

5OA is a bit of a reach for Leonard for me, but I agree with the Smith/Leonard analogies that many scouts make to Huberdeau/M Tkachuk: the guy with the most points is not necessarily the guy who helps you win in the playoffs.

 

[ReHabs]

Is grit is, no one talked about size.

Grit with the 5OA... not into it, personally.

 

[Twisted Sinister]

Leonard didn't score a lot less than his linemates as soon as the competition became harder Suddenly his grit made him the most important part of that line. Look at the U18 stats....20, 18, 17 pts.

"Relative to his NHL opponents to come, he will not have as relatively strong and skilled linemates as he had in this past season."

That's a view over-reliant on what he gets from his teammates vs. what he brings to the table.

"It’s not like his size is a difference maker either, is it?"

Is grit is, no one talked about size.

" You don’t pick Kunitz or TJ Oshie at 5OA when you lack protagonist, productive, impact players for them to play with."

Suzuki and Caufield need a winger like that, this is the only reason you get Leonard ahead of others players Suzuki and Caufield are supposed to be our 2 protagonists and they need a core grit protagonist who can play on a 1st line. That player is a lot rarer than you keep suggesting. "You don't..." isn't really much of an argument. You do if you are missing a key ingredient that will optimize all your ingredients. The don't is the nonsense. We don't have a 15-20th overall pick, the option is not on the table. Wishing for us to pick that player in the 2nd round is wishful thinking. Sure Kidney might turn in that player, or... we could be like Edmonton still looking for it after 5 years.

I'm not advocating for Leonard, I'm just starting the case for him.

"On another note, ‘playmaking’ doesn’t mean passing and racking assists."

You can't both complain about the direct nature of my post and suggest that I don't know what playmaking is.

I don't think Suzuki is good enough to be one of the protagonists. Caufield maybe, but even he's a one-dimensional character.

We still need legit protagonists, primarily a legitimate number one producer, and a legit number one D (No, not Reinbacher). I think the only way to get those guys it to draft them

 

[ReHabs]

Least productive? I really don't think so. Lower point totals yes, but Leonard did all the heavy lifting on that line and was arguably its best player. Worked the hardest in the defensive zone....won puck battles galore along the boards...drove the puck up ice effectively, created time and space for Smith, made big hits, created havoc in front of the opposing goalie.

5OA is a bit of a reach for Leonard for me, but I agree with the Smith/Leonard analogies that many zcouts make to Huberdeau/M Tkachuk: the guy with the most points is not necessarily the guy who helps you win in the playoffs.

It's much harder to do that heavy lifting against NHL-level defenders, that's the problem. He won't be able to leverage the same advantage in strength against NHL-level defenders. What does that leave then? It's a worthwhile question.

Talent should trump grit even if there are exceptional cases like Huberdeau and whatnot. The general pattern is set -- point producing talent is much more valuable than grit for a team that lacks point producing talent.

 

[Skip Bayless]

Ehh, to say anyone was playing a boatload of defense on that team is stretching it...

But if I go with what you're saying, I'd have a few comments:

-We're prioritizing 2-way play and intangibles over offense again

-One of the knocks on Shane Wright last year was that his offensive production had plateaued, even though he was doing everything for a horrible Kingston Frontenacs team... Playing offense, defense, and even pretty much having to be the puck moving defenseman as well with their weird-ass structure. Are we to take it that defensive responsibilities are an excuse for lower production?

-If we do take Leonard, where are we getting our offense from? Caufield by himself? Is it by committee again? Because that's worked out so well for us over 30 years.

-Canadiens need to put on their big boy pants and draft talent. Intangibles and 2-way play are a lot easier to acquire through means other than the draft.

In this board when people think of two way game, they automatically think about Philip Danault. Leonard is not Danault.

If you watch Leonard play, you realize that he has just as much offensive skill as the other two. He moves the puck quickly, freezes and protects the puck, makes difficult passes, dangle one on one, shoot in any type of situation, create at high speed, create passing lanes thanks to his agility. He can do it all at a high level.

As for Wright, the biggest knock on him was his lack of physical implication. He relied too much on his anticipation, didn't engage along the boards as much as he should've, thus limiting his impact in the game. It's not his defensive implication that hindered him, it's his passive style.

A lot of the time, Leonard made the play that allowed his teammates to generate a high scoring chance. He was the facilitator on that line, but his ability to create chances for himself out of nothing is what'll make him a high pick. Otherwise he'd be another Dvorsky/Wright.

 

[Gainesvillain]

Brady Tkachuk is an awful skater.

Not anymore. It's probably the area he's improved most on since his own draft day.

 

[SOLR]

I don't think Suzuki is good enough to be one of the protagonists. Caufield maybe, but even he's a one-dimensional character.

We still need legit protagonists, primarily a legitimate number one producer, and a legit number one D (No, not Reinbacher). I think the only way to get those guys it to draft them

We surely are paying him like a protagonist, at least he's our version of it. If he's not it, then we shouldn't build around him.

"I think the only way to get those guys is to draft them"

No, that's not the only way, the only way is to get enough draft value.

It's much harder to do that heavy lifting against NHL-level defenders, that's the problem. He won't be able to leverage the same advantage in strength against NHL-level defenders. What does that leave then? It's a worthwhile question.

Talent should trump grit even if there are exceptional cases like Huberdeau and whatnot. The general pattern is set -- point producing talent is much more valuable than grit for a team that lacks point producing talent.

It's grit, not strength. Re: young Gallagher.

Neither Suzuki or Caufield are independently good enough that we should use the 5OA to draft someone to compliment them. Sorry, no. We need someone who can be better than Suzuki and Caufield.

We do, but that doesn't seem to be readily available at 5 if we are not ready to pick Michkov (I am, not sure that they are), unless we trade down and take 2 shots at it from a big lower.

 

[Gainesvillain]

It's much harder to do that heavy lifting against NHL-level defenders, that's the problem. He won't be able to leverage the same advantage in strength against NHL-level defenders. What does that leave then? It's a worthwhile question.

You're begging the question.

It's also much harder for the pure-skill guys to rack up points against NHL-level defenders too. Doubly-so when their skating isn't elite.

 

[MON4NHLTOR4MLB]

If we take Rienbacher at 5th overall it would be a waste of a season. Sure, he’ll be okay but you don’t go for okay at 5th overall

 

[Vachon23]

If we take Rienbacher at 5th overall it would be a waste of a season. Sure, he’ll be okay but you don’t go for okay at 5th overall

And why ?

 

[NotProkofievian]

And why ?

Because he needs Reinbacher to just be okay for his argument to make sense. It's 2 weeks until the draft, basically all we do around here is assume our conclusions.

 

[McGees]

All this article tells me is that:
a) there is basically no unanimous order even near the top
and/or
b) everything these Execs and scouts are saying is BS in hopes to sway the draft in their favor