HF Habs: 2023 NHL Draft part 2

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Playmaker09

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Sep 11, 2008
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With all hockey events over, here is my final 37 with player comps.

While the comps initially focused more on style (ie. Taylor Hall for Fantilli), I transitioned to a more role-centric criteria based off position/most likely outcome/build/strengths as I went along, as I had a harder time justifying a comp of Jake Guentzel for Nick Lardis for example when I have him ranked outside the first round. It just seemed less useful.

Within tiers, I typically valued low-risk/high-likelihood over swinging for the fences and had C>D>W.
A 1W is what I would want a top winger on a team to be, likely paired with a 1C. A 2W is what I would want the second best winger on a team to be, either flanking the 2C or the third member of one of the best 1st lines in the league.

Typically, I would consider the top 3 Cs, top 2 Ws, top 3 Ds and 1G as the core of the team. Complementary top 6 W and 4D also hold some value, but no one whose most likely outcome is something beneath that would ever be in my first round (or in this case 37).
I do not value two-way Ds in the top 10 (in general, although there are some weak draft years where it's fine) as some others may. Draft picks are scarce resources and in order to build a cup winning team, you will need to find some core players outside the first round. I feel much more confident in finding a quality two-way D (and goaltenders) in rounds 2-4 than I do any other core forward, so the forwards are much more prized early on.
There were no goaltenders in this draft that I evaluated as having a true 1G resume. Plenty of nice swings to take in rounds 2-3, especially if we can obtain additional picks (ie. not pick 37).

As I mentioned last year as well, my preferred choice would not be to draft at our current position.
Last year my decision would have been to trade down to 4-5 and pick whichever of the two D's were available. Assuming we were compensated with the 35th pick from Seattle to move down, my selections would have been Jiricek and Chesley as I believed much more confidently in the D crop last year than the forwards.

This year, I cannot stress enough the importance of moving up to 2 or 3. I would easily give up our 1st next year unprotected to move up two spots. Florida's pick, Calgary's pick, Mesar, Farrell, Anderson, possibly Matheson should all be in play as well. There are more than enough high-quality assets available to get it done, even at an exorbitant price, as this team's ceiling will forever be limited without the addition of a star caliber forward, and this is likely our last chance to obtain one. Failure to accomplish this would shine a clear light on the lack of vision from our management IMO and would greatly reduce my confidence in them.

Without further ado:

Generational
1 Connor Bedard (C) - Kane/Matthews

Franchise
2 Leo Carlsson (C/RW) - Draisaitl
3 Matvei Michkov (RW) - Kaprizov

1C
4 Adam Fantilli (C) - Hall/MacKinnon

Low End 1C / 1W / 1D
5 Zach Benson (LW) - Marchand
6 Ryan Leonard (RW) - Forsberg/Brown
7 Will Smith (C/RW) - Spezza

2C / 2W / 2D
8 Brayden Yager (C) - Carter/RNH
9 Oliver Moore (C) - Larkin
10 Dalibor Dvorsky (C) - Horvat
11 David Reinbacher (RD) - Pulock
12 Colby Barlow (LW) - Meier
13 Matthew Wood (RW) - Vanek

Middle 6 C / Top 6 W / 3D / 1G
14 Nate Danielson (C) - Danault
15 Calum Ritchie (C/RW) - Schenn
16 Anton Wahlberg (C/LW/RW) - Eriksson Ek
17 David Edstrom (C) - Jenner
18 Dmitri Simashev (LD) - Pelech
19 Tom Willander (RD) - Niskanen
20 Samuel Honzek (LW) - Hayes
21 Daniil But (LW/RW) - Franzen
22 Otto Stenberg (LW) - Perron
23 Gavin Brindley (C/RW) - Konecny
24 Riley Heidt (C) - Domi
25 Eduard Sale (RW) - Bailey
26 Jayden Perron (RW) - Jarvis
27 Gabe Perreault (LW) - Teravainen

3C / 4D / High-Risk
28 Gracyn Sawchyn (C) - Gourde
29 Oscar Fisker Mølgaard (C) - Cirelli
30 Danny Nelson (C/LW) - Berglund
31 Axel Sandin Pellikka (RD) - Boqvist
32 Tanner Molendyk (LD) - Jokiharju
33 Maxim Strbak (RD) - Hamonic
34 Quentin Musty (LW) - Batherson
35 Andrew Cristall (LW) - Granlund
36 Nick Lardis (RW) - Olofsson
37 Lukas Dragicevic (RD) - Shattenkirk
 
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Kennerback

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Jun 2, 2021
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Hockey Prospect BlackBook:


D2AA6588-5936-4146-92DF-D7AD53645654.png
 

Jesker

Registered User
May 8, 2010
503
257
Montreal
With all hockey events over, here is my final 37 with player comps.

While the comps initially focused more on style (ie. Taylor Hall for Fantilli), I transitioned to a more role-centric criteria based off position/most likely outcome/build/strengths as I went along, as I had a harder time justifying a comp of Jake Guentzel for Nick Lardis for example when I have him ranked outside the first round. It just seemed less useful.

Within tiers, I typically valued low-risk/high-likelihood over swinging for the fences and had C>D>W.
A 1W is what I would want a top winger on a team to be, likely paired with a 1C. A 2W is what I would want the second best winger on a team to be, either flanking the 2C or the third member of one of the best 1st lines in the league.

Typically, I would consider the top 3 Cs, top 2 Ws, top 3 Ds and 1G as the core of the team. Complementary top 6 W and 4D also hold some value, but no one whose most likely outcome is something beneath that would ever be in my first round (or in this case 37).
I do not value two-way Ds in the top 10 (in general, although there are some weak draft years where it's fine) as some others may. Draft picks are scarce resources and in order to build a cup winning team, you will need to find some core players outside the first round. I feel much more confident in finding a quality two-way D (and goaltenders) in rounds 2-4 than I do any other core forward, so the forwards are much more prized early on.
There were no goaltenders in this draft that I evaluated as having a true 1G resume. Plenty of nice swings to take in rounds 2-3, especially if we can obtain additional picks (ie. not pick 37).

As I mentioned last year as well, my preferred choice would not be to draft at our current position.
Last year my decision would have been to trade down to 4-5 and pick whichever of the two D's were available. Assuming we were compensated with the 35th pick from Seattle to move down, my selections would have been Reinbacher and Chesley as I believed much more confidently in the D crop last year than the forwards.

This year, I cannot stress enough the importance of moving up to 2 or 3. I would easily give up our 1st next year unprotected to move up two spots. Florida's pick, Calgary's pick, Mesar, Farrell, Anderson, possibly Matheson should all be in play as well. There are more than enough high-quality assets available to get it done, even at an exorbitant price, as this team's ceiling will forever be limited without the addition of a star caliber forward, and this is likely our last chance to obtain one. Failure to accomplish this would shine a clear light on the lack of vision from our management IMO and would greatly reduce my confidence in them.

Without further ado:

Generational
1 Connor Bedard (C) - Kane/Matthews

Franchise
2 Leo Carlsson (C/RW) - Draisaitl
3 Matvei Michkov (RW) - Kaprizov

1C
4 Adam Fantilli (C) - Hall/MacKinnon

Low End 1C / 1W / 1D
5 Zach Benson (LW) - Marchand
6 Ryan Leonard (RW) - Forsberg/Brown
7 Will Smith (C/RW) - Spezza

2C / 2W / 2D
8 Brayden Yager (C) - Carter/RNH
9 Oliver Moore (C) - Larkin
10 Dalibor Dvorsky (C) - Horvat
11 David Reinbacher (RD) - Pulock
12 Colby Barlow (LW) - Meier
13 Matthew Wood (RW) - Vanek

Middle 6 C / Top 6 W / 3D / 1G
14 Nate Danielson (C) - Danault
15 Calum Ritchie (C/RW) - Schenn
16 Anton Wahlberg (C/LW/RW) - Eriksson Ek
17 David Edstrom (C) - Jenner
18 Dmitri Simashev (LD) - Pelech
19 Tom Willander (RD) - Niskanen
20 Samuel Honzek (LW) - Hayes
21 Daniil But (LW/RW) - Franzen
22 Otto Stenberg (LW) - Perron
23 Gavin Brindley (C/RW) - Konecny
24 Riley Heidt (C) - Domi
25 Eduard Sale (RW) - Bailey
26 Jayden Perron (RW) - Jarvis
27 Gabe Perreault (LW) - Teravainen

3C / 4D / High-Risk
28 Gracyn Sawchyn (C) - Gourde
29 Oscar Fisker Mølgaard (C) - Cirelli
30 Danny Nelson (C/LW) - Berglund
31 Axel Sandin Pellikka (RD) - Boqvist
32 Tanner Molendyk (LD) - Jokiharju
33 Maxim Strbak (RD) - Hamonic
34 Quentin Musty (LW) - Batherson
35 Andrew Cristall (LW) - Granlund
36 Nick Lardis (RW) - Olofsson
37 Lukas Dragicevic (RD) - Shattenkirk

Very interesting list and nice comparables ; if I have one question ; why ASP so low ?
 

Playmaker09

Registered User
Sep 11, 2008
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Very interesting list and nice comparables ; if I have one question ; why ASP so low ?

I don't value that archetype of defenseman.

If I believed in his ability to be a top tier PPQB in the NHL I could make an argument for top D in the draft and top 10.
But as it stands, I think he's a second unit PP, no PK kind of guy who will get bullied in front of the net, in the corners and by the forecheck. He's ultimately just a small 5v5 transition specialist and I highly value size in my top 4 D.

Similarly, I don't have Gulyayev on my list at all, as I don't believe he can hold up defensively nor make up for that with offensive prowess.
 
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SannywithoutCompy

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Dec 22, 2020
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I get that Perreault doesn't have amazing tools, but that guy doesn't have a toolbox, it's a whole Home Depot.

I don't think I've seen him not in the right place at the right time in the offensive zone.

I don't know why he's getting ranked as if he's the Dvorak to Leonard and Smith's Tkachuk and Marner.
 

Jesker

Registered User
May 8, 2010
503
257
Montreal
Been a while since I came here but a few random points on this monday

- My top 5 as of now in order is Bedard Fantilli Michkov Smith Carlsson. My guess is you take whoever is left on the board at 5 ?
- I would be okay with drafting Michkov ; but you have to wonder of all the media here freaking out if he doesn't come. Like it or not it could be a career decision for Hugues and it's likely on the back of his mind.
- I really like Smith I have him at 4 but man... his skating doesn't look effortless. Just a tad worried. For those of you who watched him a lot is it an issue ? Comparable to ? There's numerous exemple of players overcoming average skating even in our club but it's a concern.
- The only way I would be okay with Leonard or Benson at 5 is if Bedard Fantilli Smith and Carlsson are gone and Michkov drops of the top 15,20 (a.k.a. ; there something all the teams know that we don't). I would then understand going with Leonard or Benson or another player.
- I would NOT be okay with Reinbacher. Just not a fan at 5. A solid D is okay with a 16th pick like Guhle, perfect pick. But at 5 i want a lot more.
- I would be okay with moving up from 31 and 37 for a high ceiling player that dropped in the 20s.
 

Garbageyuk

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Dec 19, 2016
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Colberg was an okay skater. I wouldn't call him a great prospect. He was considered 1st round material and fell on draft day. He was pretty small & weak. And, yeah, he didn't progress well in his development at all.
He acted like he was severely allergic to physical contact once he started playing against men. He struggled in SEL, and it only got worse when he came to North America.
 
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Garbageyuk

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Dec 19, 2016
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Bedard is seen as a generational talent because he destroyed the WHL and had a gazillion goals per game. The Russian system is very different but Michkov just had the most productive seasons for a guy his age ever in those leagues. It's never a sure thing, but at some point you have to drop the skepticism when a prospect sets new heights like Michkov has. The hype is deserved.
Yeah it’s fine to like the player, to want the team to pick him, and to believe he’ll become a star.

It’s a different thing entirely to react to concerns or skepticism with vitriol and to call anyone who doesn’t believe he’s an absolute 100% sure superstar an idiot.
 

Andrei79

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Jan 25, 2013
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Hockey Prospect BlackBook:


View attachment 717225

The Michkov part is very interesting. They're not buying the Russian Bedard hype or the historical season. Not that they don't believe he has high potential, but they refer to 8 of his 20 points coming during 2 Kunlun games, the relative strenght of the KHL this year (likely its weakest iteration) and the opportunities coming from playing on a very weak team, rather than SKA for example. They don't believe he has the playmaking/vision of Kucherov or Kaprizov. They don't believe he improved his skating to the same degree as Bedard. They feel the rest of his toolkit is stagnating and see him as a complimentary finisher, rather than a potential line driver. Edwards' NHL scout sources though are all over the place, but seem to see him as 2nd or 3rd best player. He doesn't have many quotes from the end of the season though. As far as HP goes, I'm wondering if they're not going a bit Lucas Raymonds with him.

Not a lot of good words from NHL scouts towards Reinbacher lol.
 
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Garbageyuk

Registered User
Dec 19, 2016
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Sad that some posters around here seemed to have lapped up the disinformation hook line and sinker though. For such a smart fanbase it's disappointing.
Explain this sentiment. Why would there be “disinformation” around a particular player? Because he’s Russian? Please.

What would be the purpose of this “disinformation” campaign, who would be behind it?

I’ll ask everyone else this: is it more likely that there’s some widespread conspiracy involving the media and numerous scouts to drop Michkov in the draft,

or

could it simply be that some scouts have seen him more than others and/or have information that others don’t and have reported concerns that others aren’t aware of?

Hint: there’s a useful tool that can tell you which is the better option to pick.

Some people will come up with most ridiculous shit just to try to justify their opinions. Not surprising though, this is HFBoards and we’re talking about the latest darling prospect.
 

Garbageyuk

Registered User
Dec 19, 2016
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The Michkov part is very interesting. They're not buying the Russian Bedard hype or the historical season. Not that they don't believe he has high potential, but they refer to 8 of his 20 points coming during 2 Kunlun games, the relative strenght of the KHL this year (likely its weakest iteration) and the opportunities coming from playing on a very weak team, rather than SKA for example. They don't believe he has the playmaking/vision of Kucherov or Kaprizov. They don't believe he improved his skating to the same degree as Bedard. They feel the rest of his toolkit is stagnating and see him as a complimentary finisher, rather than a potential line driver. Edwards' NHL scout sources though are all over the place, but seem to see him as 2nd or 3rd best player. He doesn't have many quotes from the end of the season though. As far as HP goes, I'm wondering if they're not going a bit Lucas Raymonds with him.
Lmao all the same concerns I was talking about are mentioned here by this guy. Where’s all the posters saying I was making it all up?
 

SOLR

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Jun 4, 2006
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Toronto / North York
Explain this sentiment. Why would there be “disinformation” around a particular player? Because he’s Russian? Please.

What would be the purpose of this “disinformation” campaign, who would be behind it?

I’ll ask everyone else this: is it more likely that there’s some widespread conspiracy involving the media and numerous scouts to drop Michkov in the draft,

or

could it simply be that some scouts have seen him more than others and/or have information that others don’t and have reported concerns that others aren’t aware of?

Hint: there’s a useful tool that can tell you which is the better option to pick.

Some people will come up with most ridiculous shit just to try to justify their opinions. Not surprising though, this is HFBoards and we’re talking about the latest darling prospect.

Because everybody is wondering who will take the risk and this could have an influence on trades. So GMs, like at poker, are not revealing their plans and are even bluffing about what those are (disinforming). Jaromir Jagr all over again.
 

Andrei79

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Jan 25, 2013
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Because everybody is wondering who will take the risk and this could have an influence on trades. So GMs, like at poker, are not revealing their plans and are even bluffing about what those are (disinforming). Jaromir Jagr all over again.

Some scouts say they won't draft Russians, others mention the Russians will get picked a lot earlier than people expect. Loving the unpredictability of this draft.
 

JoelWarlord

Registered User
May 7, 2012
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Halifax
This has to be the most interesting draft in my lifetime. So many interesting angles with where Michkov ends up, where teams are on their Reinbacher assessment, what happens with some wildcards like But and Wood, etc.

Can't believe it's still over 2 weeks away.
 

Andrei79

Registered User
Jan 25, 2013
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I wonder if there’s ever been a player who scored more against good teams and less agaisnt bad ones

seems like a pretty silly critique ngl

I think it's more about having 40% of his production in 7% of his games. 6 of those 8 points were against a goalie sporting a 6.29 GAA. The same kind of criticism was levied at Slafkovsky's production in international tournaments last year (strength of opposition, weak iteration of the OGs, opportunities he wouldn't get elsewhere).

I know a poster here often mentions how a certain league divides their teams and how players produce after those get divided.
 
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David Suzuki

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Aug 25, 2010
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I think it's more about having 40% of his production in 7% of his games. 6 of those 8 points were against a goalie sporting a 6.29 GAA. The same kind of criticism was levied at Slafkovsky's production in international tournaments last year (strength of opposition, weak iteration of the OGs, opportunities he wouldn't get elsewhere).

I know a poster here often mentions how a certain league divides their teams and how players produce after those get divided.

hmmmm didn’t thé black book guys have slaf at 1? I remember them being particularly harsh against wright but can’t recall who was their top player.

i’ll probably buy the guide tonight though, I like michkov but am still open to other options
 

Andrei79

Registered User
Jan 25, 2013
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hmmmm didn’t thé black book guys have slaf at 1? I remember them being particularly harsh against wright but can’t recall who was their top player.

i’ll probably buy the guide tonight though, I like michkov but am still open to other options

I think they're overstating it tbh. Also, the NHL scouts don't seem to buy it from the comments he gathered. Seems like they were all high on him. I think the lowest projection is one guy said "Cole Caufield" or the Russians will slide. Aside from that, it's all top 2 or 3.
 
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Mdamico

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Dec 29, 2006
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The 2023 NHL Draft is just a few weeks away, and so it's time for the final MHN Mock Draft of the season! It's going to be a wild one:

 
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